2024-09-09 11:21

The Fed is expected to begin its much-anticipating rate-cutting cycle from next week. An aggressive Fed rate cut may signal economic worry, not reassurance, weighing over risk assets, including bitcoin, according to 10x Research. Traders currently see a less than 30% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut next week. Friday's U.S. jobs report has seemingly set the stage for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to start cutting interest rates, with the first move likely to happen next week. The supposedly bullish liquidity easing cycle may klick off on a sour note for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points (bps) on Sept. 18, according to 10x Research. Rate moves are expressed in “basis points (bps),” equal to 1/100 of a percentage point and central banks, including the Fed, typically opt for 25 basis point interest rate changes. However, more significant moves are occasionally chosen, indicating a sense of urgency. For instance, the Fed delivered multiple 50 bps and 75 bps hikes during the 2022 tightening cycle, signaling an urgency to control inflation and causing risk aversion in financial markets. A 50 basis point rate cut next week might imply heightened economic concerns or a sense of falling behind the curve in combating the impending economic slowdown, thus leading investors to scale back exposure to risk assets like bitcoin (BTC) and stocks. "While a 50 basis point cut by the Fed might signal deeper concerns to the markets, the Fed's primary focus will be mitigating economic risks rather than managing market reactions," Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said in a note to clients Monday, having correctly predicted BTC's first quarter rally to $70,000. At press time, Chicago Mercantile Exchange's (CME) FedWatch tool showed almost 30% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points to the 4.75%-5% range next week. "The probability of a 50 basis point cut is only 29%, contrasting our view and the prevailing consensus. The chorus is growing louder that the Fed is behind the curve, having missed signs of labor market weakness after being caught off guard in July," Thielen added. Thielen's view is consistent with the consensus among traditional market experts. "The Fed doesn't want to start with a 50bps cut because frankly, at this point, the economy doesn't need them to panic," macro trader Craig Shapiro said on X. Shapiro detailed that liquidity-addicted markets will want the Fed to start with a 50 bps rate cut and will correct lower until the central bank opts for bigger reductions. "We are back in this zone. Risk assets will correct until the Fed capitulates and gives it what it wants. We need to find the Fed put strike price, but given where the economy is now and with risk asset prices (stocks, credit spreads, etc) still so elevated while the economic data is still slowly growing, I fear the levels are significantly lower," Shapiro added. Past data show the start of the rate-cutting cycle, irrespective of the size of the first move, does not always have a stimulative effect on asset prices. Note that the expected Fed easing has been one of the key factors behind BTC's uptrend from $20,000 in January 2023, which raises the question of whether the rate cut is already priced in. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/09/09/a-050-fed-rate-cut-could-raise-alarm-for-bitcoin-10x-research-warns/

2024-09-09 11:14

More than 30 exchanges still have applications pending. Binance's Indonesia subsidiary has won a full license from the nation's Commodity Futures Trading Regulatory Agency. More than 30 crypto exchanges have applied for a full license. Binance subsidiary Tokocrypto, an Indonesian cryptocurrency exchange, has obtained a full license as a Physical Crypto Asset Trader (PFAK) from the country's Commodity Futures Trading Regulatory Agency, known as Bappebti. Binance acquired Tokocrypto in late 2022, having previously been a majority shareholder of the company. In late 2023, Indonesia introduced a requirement for all crypto exchanges to register with what it called the world's first national bourse for crypto assets. The bourse – the Commodity Future Exchange (CFX) – would be regulated by Bappebti and function like a traditional stock exchange, but with a specific focus on digital assets. The regulatory development came as a response to the high local demand for crypto in Indonesia. "We are proud of this achievement to become the third exchange to receive PFAK license in Indonesia, the market which has 35 prospective crypto exchanges registered with Bappebti," Tokocrypto CEO Yudhono said in a statement. Read More: New Binance CEO Sees No Need for IPO as He Plots 100-Year Strategy for Crypto Exchange https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/09/09/binance-unit-tokocrypto-is-third-crypto-exchange-to-score-full-license-in-indonesia/

2024-09-09 10:30

Natasha Powell is leaving the crypto payments firm. She will continue to support the group as a non-exec director of BCB Payments. BCB Group's chief compliance officer is leaving the business. Her resignation is the latest in a series of senior management departures at the crypto payments firm. BCB Group, the London-based crypto payments firm, is about to suffer its fifth C-suite departure in 18 months with the loss of its chief compliance officer, Natasha Powell. "I am stepping away from the day to day running of the business," Powell said in an email, who declined to identify her new position saying simply that it wasn't a competitor. Kym Routledge will head up the compliance function following her departure. "Natasha has been instrumental in driving the creation of BCB Group's first class compliance programme that now forms the bedrock of our regulated businesses," CEO Oliver Tonkin said in an emailed statement. "Whilst I am sad to see her leave us, I am delighted to be able to announce she will be continuing to support BCB as a non-executive director of BCB Payments." Powell's departure follows that of the company's former CEO, Oliver von Landsberg-Sadie, who left the firm in November to pursue new opportunities. His exit came just five months after Deputy CEO Noah Sharp left following the failed acquisition of Germany's Sutor Bank. The chief banking officer, Ian Moore, quit the payments firm in September last year, and Lux Thiagarajah, BCB's former chief revenue officer, joined crypto prime broker FalconX in May as head of commercial FX. The payments processor recently received a takeover approach from an unidentified investor, CoinDesk revealed last week. The buyout interest was initiated by the potential acquirer while BCB was exploring a Series B funding round, according to people familiar with the matter. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/09/09/bcb-groups-chief-compliance-officer-to-exit-in-latest-senior-management-departure/

2024-09-09 09:30

Snapshot X, the new governance protocol, makes use of storage proofs – a cryptographic feature that StarkWare, the primary developer of Starknet, has helped innovate and embraced. Snapshot Labs, developer of an off-chain voting platform used by 96% of decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) including those overseeing leading DeFi projects Lido and Aave, is adding a blockchain-based option, built on the Ethereum layer-2 network Starknet. Snapshot X, the new governance protocol, makes use of storage proofs – a cryptographic feature that StarkWare, the primary developer of Starknet, has helped to innovate. The technology allows users to prove that assets exist on one blockchain, without needing to use a third party to move them to another. “By mathematically verifying data across chains, storage proofs eliminate the need for third-party intermediaries, making the process more secure and cost-efficient,” StarkWare wrote in a press release shared with CoinDesk. “For Snapshot X, this means users can vote based on assets held on one chain, while conducting governance on another, without transferring tokens or paying gas fees.” Snapshot Labs COO Jeremy Musighi told CoinDesk in a message over Telegram that when a user casts a vote on the platform, a proof of their holdings is sent to the layer-1 blockchain. "On the contract side, Snapshot X verifies this proof,” he said. “Once verified, we can be certain that the user indeed has the balance he claims to have on L1.” The first vote on Snapshot X, scheduled to take place this week, pertains to a proposal regarding Starknet itself. Community members of Starknet are being asked to decide on the minting mechanism for the project’s new staking proposal. “From tomorrow, Sept. 10, until Sept. 13, STRK token holders will vote on a staking proposal through the Starknet Governance Hub, a custom-built interface for Snapshot X,” StarkWare wrote. https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2024/09/09/snapshot-popular-dao-voting-platform-finally-moves-on-chain-atop-starknet/

2024-09-09 09:25

Wallet data tracked by Arkham shows over 5,000 ETH, worth just over $11 million at current prices, from July’s attack on crypto exchange WazirX was moved to a new address at 07:19 UTC. The North Korean entity responsible for the hack on India's WazirX crypto exchange moved over $11 million in stolen ether (ETH) to Tornado Cash early Monday, aiming to mask the transaction trail. The breach in July resulted in the loss of over $100 million in SHIB, $52 million in ETH, and other assets, representing a significant portion of WazirX's reserves, with ongoing efforts to manage the fallout through restructuring. The North Korean entity behind India’s biggest crypto hack moved $11 million in stolen ether (ETH) early Monday in the latest batch of transfers to mixing service Tornado Cash. Wallet data tracked by Arkham shows over 5,000 ETH, worth just over $11 million at current prices, from July’s attack on crypto exchange WazirX was moved to a new address at 07:19 UTC. Then, $1.2 million in tokens from that address were sent to Tornado Cash over five different transfers. Tornado Cash allows crypto users to exchange tokens while masking wallet addresses on various blockchains. The service, by itself, is not nefarious but is commonly used by crypto criminals to clean an online trail that could lead to the identity of those moving stolen funds. The moves follow a $4 million transfer from last week, as first reported by CoinDesk. The hacker’s main address holds over $107 million worth of various tokens - with a majority in ether at $100 million. In July, WazirX was hit by a security breach in one of its multisig wallets, causing over $100 million in shiba inu (SHIB) and $52 million in ether, among other assets, to be drained from the exchange. The stolen funds accounted for over 45% of the total reserves cited by the exchange in a June 2024 report – and the exchange has since filed for a restructuring process to clear liabilities. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/09/09/wazirx-hacker-moves-11m-stolen-ether-to-tornado-cash/

2024-09-09 08:54

If Kamala Harris wins, the world's largest cryptocurrency could drop to as low as $30K, the report said. If Trump wins the U.S. election in November, bitcoin is expected to hit new highs, the report said. Bernstein said a Harris election win could see the crypto fall to as low as $30,000. Positive crypto regulatory policy could spur innovation and increase adoption, the report said. Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to reach new highs later this year if Donald Trump wins the U.S. election in November, and the cryptocurrency could hit $90,000 by the fourth quarter, broker Bernstein said in a research report on Monday. If Kamala Harris wins the election, the largest crypto by market cap is expected to break its current floor around the $50,000 level and could test the $30,000-$40,000 range, the report said. The broker noted that Trump has been very vocal about making America the "bitcoin and crypto capital of the world," and has mentioned digital assets at every policy speech he has made. Trump's speech at the Bitcoin Nashville conference in July called for the U.S. to be a bitcoin mining powerhouse, for the appointment of a crypto friendly Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chairman, the formation of a national strategic bitcoin stockpile and a crypto advisory council to the President. Conversely, crypto has not even been mentioned in any of Harris's speeches, the report noted. Bernstein said the crypto market has been faced with two significant headwinds for the past three years, macro and regulatory. "After the last three years of regulatory purge, a positive crypto regulatory policy can spur innovation again and bring the users back to financial products on the blockchain," analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote. "Elections remain hard to call, but if you are long crypto here, you are likely taking a Trump trade," the report added. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/09/09/bitcoin-could-hit-90k-by-year-end-if-trump-becomes-president-again-bernstein/