2024-08-02 10:52

A weak report will likely bolster Fed rate-cut expectations and potentially support risk assets, including bitcoin. Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report could disappoint expectations, according to ING. A weak report will likely bolster Fed rate cut expectations and potentially support risk assets, including bitcoin. With markets awaiting Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, analysts at ING caution that the scales are tipped toward a weaker number, potentially adding to volatility in financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. The data due at 8:30 ET (12:30 UTC) is expected to show the U.S. economy added 185,000 jobs in July, down from June's 206,000, according to economists polled by the Wall Street Journal. The jobless rate is seen at 4.1%, unchanged from June, while the annual growth in hourly wages likely slowed to 3.7%. "Evidence from employment components of the ISM and NFIB surveys suggest the risks are skewed to a weaker payroll print," analysts at ING said in a note to clients Friday, explaining their bearish view on the dollar. A weak report would undoubtedly bolster expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts this year, denting the currency's appeal. Traders already expect the Fed to begin cutting rates in September and ramp up easing even though Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday ruled out big rate cuts. According to ING, macroeconomic forces could drive the dollar lower once the ongoing equity turmoil and haven demand from geopolitical tensions abate. A weaker greenback, the global reserve currency with an outsized impact on financial conditions, often galvanizes demand for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered from the Asian session low of around $62,200 to $64,500 ahead of the payrolls report, CoinDesk data show. Analysts expect the imminent Fed rate cut to drive the cryptocurrency to new highs above $74,000 in the coming months. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/08/02/risks-are-skewed-to-a-weaker-nonfarm-payrolls-print-ing-says/

2024-08-02 09:04

Coinbase revenue beat Wall Street analysts' expectations, while profit came in lower than the consensus. ARK sold a total of 69,069 COIN shares on Thursday, the biggest single-day sale since May 7. Having sold only $2.88 million of COIN in June and $7.93 million in July, Thursday's sales mean ARK has sold more in one day than in the previous two months combined. Cathie Wood's investment company ARK Invest sold $14.8 million worth of crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) shares on Thursday, the biggest single-day divestment since May 7, ahead of the exchange's second-quarter earnings announcement. The divestment means the company sold more Coinbase shares on the first day of August than in the previous two months combined. It sold $2.88 million of the shares in June and $7.93 million in July. After the market closed, Coinbase reported second-quarter revenue that beat Wall Street analysts' expectations. Profit, however, came in lower than the consensus. The exchange's shares, which fell 5.2% to $212.64 during regular trading, rallied briefly after the report and were little changed in pre-market trading. ARK sold a total of 69,069 COIN shares across its Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) and Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). The company's share sales are often made out of necessity, to keep within its own exposure guidelines that avoid one holding accounting for more than 10% of an ETF's total weighting. COIN accounts for 6.74% of ARKW and 9.69% of ARKF. Read More: Coinbase Asset Management Plans Tokenized Money-Market Fund, a Hot Area After BlackRock's BUIDL Success: Sources https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/08/02/ark-invest-sold-148m-of-coinbase-shares-thursday-ahead-of-the-exchanges-earnings-report/

2024-08-02 07:52

Long-term holders are motivated to hold at bitcoin's going market rate, implying an attractive risk-reward for existing or potential investors, according to the "reserve risk" indicator. BTC's reserve risk indicator shows conviction among long-term holders, offering an appealing risk-reward ratio to existing or potential investors. Other indicators based on inactivity of supply also point to strong holding sentiment. While bitcoin's (BTC) price has more than doubled in the past year, the largest cryptocurrency continues to offer an appealing risk-reward ratio for those eyeing an investment, according to an on-chain indicator that successfully predicted the bull run in early 2023. Bitcoin's "reserve risk," an indicator that gauges the confidence of long-term holders based on their willingness to defer spending coins, remains entrenched in the so-called green zone below 0.002, according to data tracked by CryptoQuant. The measure can range between 0 and 1. The low reading is a sign long-term holders are motivated to hold at bitcoin's going market rate rather than sell, implying favorable demand-supply dynamics and an attractive risk-reward ratio for those looking to make additional or fresh investments. "The reserve risk continues to remain in the green zone, which means buying BTC at the current levels still offers an extraordinary reward to risk. Investing in bitcoin during periods where the reserve risk in the green zone has produced outsized returns over time," MintingM, a crypto research firm based in India, told CoinDesk. Reserve risk tends to oscillate in sync with bullish and bearish trends. Historically, the green zone below 0.0027 has marked a slow transition from the final stage of a bear market into a bull market. Readings above 0.02 have marked bull-market tops. Other indicators measuring the percentage of supply that is inactive over a specific period also show a return to a holding strategy after some profit-taking at record highs early this year. "Bitcoin bull markets naturally attract sell-side pressure, as higher prices incentivize long-term holders to take profits on some of their holdings. We can observe this phenomenon through the significant decline in the Supply Last Active 1y+ and 2y+ metrics throughout March and April," blockchain analytics firm Glassnode said in a weekly report. "The rate of decline across these curves has slowed of late, suggesting a gradual return to HODLing dominant investor behavior." On-chain indicators' persistent bullish messaging is consistent with the market consensus that the impending interest-rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve would see bitcoin make a bullish escape from its prolonged range play between $60,000 and $70,000. Bitcoin changed hands at $64,420, a 0.3% gain over 24 hour, according to CoinDesk data. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/08/02/bitcoin-still-offers-attractive-risk-reward-ratio-on-chain-indicator-shows/

2024-08-02 07:36

Traditional markets from the U.S. to Japan saw declines across major indexes and stocks, with the tremors seeping into the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin rebounded from lows near $62,500 in Asian morning hours on Friday, amidst a global asset sell-off entering its third day. Despite the rebound, BTC remained under pressure, trading near its 50-day moving average, which is a key technical support level for traders. Bitcoin (BTC) reversed losses in Asian morning hours Friday as a general sell-off across global assets continued into its third day this week, exacerbated by Middle East geopolitical tensions. BTC slumped to as low as $62,500 in late U.S. trading hours on Thursday, reversing losses and trading just under $64,000 at 6:30 UTC to trade near its 50-day moving average, which remains a tactical support line for some traders. “If the decline develops, dynamics around the $63K and $61K levels, near where the 50 and 200-day moving averages are, will be important,” Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro senior market analyst, told CoinDesk in an email. “A failure of this support will open the way to $55K, which is quite frightening.” “August is considered one of the two worst months for BTC. Over the past 13 years, bitcoin has ended the month up only five times and down eight times. The average decline was 15.4% and the average rise was 26%,” he added. Crypto majors fell in the past 24 hours amid weakness in global equities. Ether (ETH) lost 1.6% in the past 24 hours, while major tokens XRP and Solana’s SOL dropped as much as 8%. The broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a liquid index tracking the largest tokens by market capitalization, minus stablecoins, was down 2.44%. This broad sell-off in BTC was felt in some of the bitcoin exchange-traded funds, according to market data. While the U.S.-listed BTC ETFs had a total daily net inflow of $50.6 million, GBTC, FBTC, ARKB, BITB and HODL posted outflows. Meanwhile, Ether ETF's collectively posted net inflow of $26.75 million although many registered zero flow. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 ended Thursday with a 2.6% loss, and the S&P 500 Index sank 1.4%, losing nearly all of Wednesday’s 1.6% gains on concerns around the U.S. economy and future earnings of technology firms. Elsewhere, Japan’s Topix index dropped 6% on Friday to mark its biggest fall since 2016. In a note shared with CoinDesk, Presto Research highlighted Microstrategy's (MSTR) standout performance in 2Q24 due to its 3.7% BTC per share increase via "intelligent leverage," a planned $2 billion equity offering for BTC purchases, and the adoption of fair-value accounting for BTC by 1Q25, which will benefit the broader BTC market. Year-to-date, MSTR is up 118%, while BTC is up 45%, according to CoinDesk Indices data. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/08/02/bitcoin-traders-eye-55k-amid-us-stocks-sell-off-xrp-leads-losses-in-major-cryptos/

2024-08-01 16:25

J.P. Thieriot, a board member and ex-CEO of Uphold, backs the vice president in her U.S. presidency bid and says he's hoping to build a digital assets advocacy for the Democrat. A former chief executive of a crypto platform is trying to build a crypto following for Vice President Kamala Harris, hoping to raise money and secure industry endorsements for the Democratic presidential candidate. Former Uphold CEO J.P. Thieriot says he's hoping to counter the digital assets sector's recent enthusiasm for former President Donald Trump. The former CEO of crypto platform Uphold, J.P. Thieriot, is trying to drum up crypto support for Vice President Kamala Harris as she pursues the Democratic nomination in the presidential election, arguing that former President Donald Trump is offering empty promises to the industry and Harris is signaling a new openness. Trump, the Republican nominee in the 2024 race, has quickly become the crypto favorite, garnering big-money support from industry leaders as he adopts enthusiastic cheering for the digital assets sector (which he'd looked on with open skepticism until recently). But Thieriot said there seems to be "a real opportunity to help shape the Harris campaign’s position on crypto." "Of course, she's going to have to do some stuff to gain trust, but she has signaled she'd like a chance," said Thieriot, who said he still retains a stake in Uphold and is building a new crypto trading operation, in an interview. "It would be crazy to not engage on that." He said he wrote a strategy paper with a wider group, which included crypto lawyers who he declined to name. They shared that document with Harris' campaign this week and are awaiting a response. "We would argue that crypto is this electoral cycle’s foremost interstate swing issue," said the strategy paper, which was reviewed by CoinDesk. "Trump has already moved to try to capture this space, and raised significant capital, essentially offering vague platitudes and no meaningful policy commitments." The paper suggested an opening crypto fundraiser in San Francisco and predicted that Harris could garner endorsements from prominents crypto figures and potentially earn tens of millions in campaign donations from the industry. Thieriot said he's setting up a website, and the effort can be contacted at [email protected]. Industry support has most loudly gravitated toward Trump, who spoke at the recent Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tenn., and who says he'll put a stop to the government resistance to cryptocurrency typified by the actions of Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler and the opposition of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). Read More: In Donald Trump's Own Words – a Partial Transcript of His Bitcoin 2024 Speech Despite President Joe Biden's appointment of Gensler and ongoing support of his oversight of the cryptocurrency sector, "Kamala has, I think, an opportunity at a clean slate," Thieriot said. The strategy he and the other supporters have in mind: She makes it clear her administration will work with the industry and support clear rules for it, and she shows openness for a friendlier chief at the SEC. Thieriot isn't alone among crypto insiders now favoring Harris. Tonya Evans, a prominent crypto law professor and board member of the Digital Currency Group, argued that Harris offers a chance for a new course that differs from the Gensler/Warren views that have dominated this administration. Evans is involved in a group of decentralized finance leaders favoring the vice president, which has scheduled a Thursday organizational meeting. Some of the most recent national polling shows Harris with a slight lead over Trump, though the candidates remain nearly even. https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/08/01/crypto-exec-pushing-for-industry-support-of-kamala-harris-for-president/

2024-08-01 15:39

The slide in the odds of a Donald Trump victory in November might have bulls rethinking some bets. Bitcoin (BTC) continued its sharp pullback after a fast start to the week, with the price retreating to a two-week low of of $62,700. At press time, bitcoin was lower by 5.5% over the past 24 hours, outperforming the broader CoinDesk 20 Index's 6.1% decline. Ether (ETH) was off 5.8%, Solana (SOL) 10% and XRP (XRP) 10%. It was roughly 72 hours ago when bitcoin touched more than a four-month high just above $70K. Markets received what nominally was good news on Thursday morning, with the U.S. July ISM Manufacturing PMI falling far more than economist expectations, sending interest rates to multi-month lows across the board. Also, U.S. initial jobless claims jumped to their highest level in about one year. Taken together, the data adds to ideas that the U.S. in on the cusp of a monetary easing cycle by the Federal Reserve – usually thought of as bullish for risk assets, bitcoin among them. Speaking yesterday following the Fed's policy meeting, Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that a rate cut for September is very much on the table should the data continue to show slowing economic growth and inflation. In other news, the Bank of England Thursday joined the monetary easing campaign begun earlier in 2024 by the Bank of Canada and European Central Bank as it trimmed its benchmark lending rate for the first time in four years. Bitcoin bulls mull Trump's sliding victory chances Looking at the bigger picture, bitcoin's pump to $70,000 on Monday followed the excitement of the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville and the pledge of GOP nominee Donald Trump to be supportive of all things Bitcoin and even consider having the government hold the crypto as a strategic asset. That's all well and good, but bitcoin bulls now need to consider that Trump's victory chances are not what they were two weeks ago when his foe was to be Joe Biden. New Democratic nominee-apparent Kamala Harris' odds of winning the election have steadily risen throughout the week to the current 44%, according to Polymarket. Trump's victory chances have faded to 55% versus 70% just two weeks ago. Whether a Harris administration would fight Bitcoin and crypto with the same ferocity as that of the Biden administration remains to be seen, but the odds of an industry-friendly new president in 2025 have gone down. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/08/01/bitcoin-plunges-more-than-10-since-hitting-70k-72-hours-ago/