2024-07-16 13:06

Gold (XAU/USD) - Latest Sentiment Analysis US rate cut fully priced in on September 18. Gold’s multi-month range now in danger. The price of gold continues to push higher and is set to test the May 20th all-time high of $2,450/oz. Renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in mid-September is helping the latest move higher. Financial markets are now pricing in a total of 65 basis points of US rate cuts this year, leaving a third move lower a 50/50 call. Data using Reuters Eikon The daily chart shows gold nearing the top of its recent multi-month range with the move supported by the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages. The CCI indicator suggests that gold is overbought, so a short period of consolidation may be seen before fresh highs are made. Gold Daily Price Chart Chart via TradingView Retail trader data shows 49.86% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.01 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 1.69% lower than yesterday and 12.94% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.27% higher than yesterday and 16.85% higher from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests Gold prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bullish contrarian trading bias. What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-xau-usd-ready-to-print-a-new-all-time-high-latest-sentiment-analysis-20240716.html

2024-07-16 07:59

Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Analysis Dovish Powell leads Treasury yields , JGBs lower – weighing on the yen USD/JPY lifts gradually after the yen surrendered recent gains The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Dovish Powell Leads Treasury Yields, JGBs Lower - Weighing on the Yen Jerome Powell continued to hint at improving conditions, laying the groundwork for the Fed’s first rate cut since the hiking cycle began in 2022. The Fed chairman repeated that the Fed will not wait until inflation is at the all important 2% market before lowering rates as monetary policy operates with a variable lag. Powell added that the committee is looking for more of the same when it comes to economic data as parts of the labour market show signs of easing, growth has moderated and inflation continues to edge lower. Nevertheless, the US dollar refused to weaken despite the recent sharp selloff in response to last week’s lower US inflation figures. US yields, however, lead the rest of the pack lower this morning with Japanese government bond yields following suit. The 10-year yield now trades near a three week low and approaches the former cap of 1%. Later this month the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will meet to potentially hike rates and have promised to reveal more details to their bond tapering plans. Japanese Government Bond Yields (10-Year) Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow USD/JPY has been the subject of much debate after official BoJ data suggests 3.57 trillion yen may have been deployed to strengthen the yen. Officials declined to comment on whether it was a targeted FX intervention exercise and continued to stress that recent yen weakness is undesirable. The pair appears to have found momentary support at the blue 50-day simple moving average, where a bullish continuation highlights the 160.00 mark once again. If further signs of a Fed cut materialize, the pair could consolidate and favour sideways trading but this appears as a less likely outcome given the interest rate differential continues to disadvantage the yen. In any case, 155.00 remains the next level of support. USD/JPY Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/usd-jpy-forecast-yen-weakens-as-powell-s-dovish-tone-impacts-yields-20240716.html

2024-07-15 18:47

Netflix's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Preview As Netflix gets ready to announce its earnings for the second quarter of 2024, investors want to know if the popular streaming service can keep attracting lots of new subscribers, make the most of its ad-supported plans, and remain the top streaming platform. When will Netflix share its latest earnings information? Netflix will reveal its April through June 2024 financial results after the stock market closes on Thursday, 18 July 2024. Another Netflix revenue increase seems to be on the cards Netflix expects its revenue to increase 16% year-over-year to $9.49 billion in the second quarter of 2024 but analysts predict Netflix's Q2 revenue will be slightly higher at $9.53 billion. In the first quarter of 2024, Netflix's revenue was $9.37 billion, up 15% from the prior year. Earnings are also expected to rise Regarding earnings, Netflix forecasts net income of $2.06 billion, or $4.68 per share, for the second quarter of 2024 whereas analysts estimate Netflix's Q2 earnings per share will reach $4.74. For comparison, in Q2 2023, Netflix reported net income of $1.48 billion, or $3.29 per share. Netflix's net income in Q1 2024 was $2.3 billion, or $5.28 per share. Further revenue growth in the pipeline Year-over-year year Netflix expects 21% FX-neutral revenue growth in Q2. Paid net additions are likely to be lower in Q2 than Q1 due to seasonal trends but global average revenue per membership is predicted to increase year-over-year in Q2 (on an FX-neutral basis). In Q1 2024, Netflix added 9.3 million net subscribers, grew global paid memberships 16% year-over-year to 269.6 million, and increased average revenue per membership 1% year-over-year (or 4% on an FX-neutral basis). Engagement remained solid despite changes like paid sharing. Netflix sales revenue chart [Source: TradingEconomics] For Q2 2024, Netflix forecasts $2.52 billion in operating income and 26.6% operating margin, versus $1.82 billion and 22.3% in Q2 2023. This compares to Q1 2024 operating income of $2.63 billion and operating margin of 28.1%. LSEG Data & Analytics analyst Netflix recommendations LSEG Data & Analytics data shows a consensus analyst rating of ‘buy’ for Netflix – 11 strong buy, 18 buy, 16 hold, and 1 sell (as of 10 July 2024). [Source: Refinitiv] Netflix – Technical View The Netflix share price, up over 45% year-to-date, is approaching its November 2021 record high at $700.99 which, since it was made near the major psychological $700 mark, probably won’t be easily overcome. Netflix Monthly Chart A rise above the $700.99 all-time high would allow for the $750 region to be in focus, though. On the daily chart, the Netflix share price has been range bound since late June but last week did rise to its current July high at $697.49, close to the $700.99 record peak. The upside is being supported by the May-to-July uptrend line at $678.42 below which good support can be spotted between the May high and the late June and early July lows at $633.78 to $662.30. While this area underpins, the short-term uptrend will remain valid. Netflix Daily Chart For a medium-term top to be formed, the Netflix share price would have to fall through its $626.44 June low. Slightly above this level the April high at $639.00 would be expected to offer support in such a scenario. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/netflix-s-second-quarter-2024-earnings-preview-the-fight-to-stay-on-top-20240715.html

2024-07-15 16:07

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis Gold prices to remain sensitive to dovish rate expectations, softer USD and yields September Fed rate cut fully priced in Major catalyst required to resuscitate suppressed gold volatility Supplement your trading knowledge with an in-depth analysis of gold's outlook, offering insights from both fundamental and technical viewpoints. Claim your free Q3 trading guide now! Gold Prices to Remain Sensitive to Dovish Rate Expectations Gold has appreciated, buoyed by last week’s lower US CPI data with the path of least resistance to the upside. The precious metal thrives in a low interest rate environment and the mere anticipation of a rate cut from the Fed in September has re-awoken gold bulls. The precious metal had been hovering around the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the major 2020 – 2022 decline before the reacceleration to the upside. Gold prices subsided after reaching a new all-time high in May as China, the world’s largest purchaser of the precious metal, dialed back its monthly purchases. Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow The gold outlook is likely to will depend on whether a combination of a lower dollar and US yields can reinvigorate bullish demand at already elevated prices. However, at the heart of the recent move is the greater expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Markets have fully priced in the cut and have opened the door to two rate cuts by year end with a 50% chance of a third. CME FedWatch Tool Showing Rapid Change in Rate Cut Expectations Source: CME FedWatch Tool, prepared by Richard Snow The weekly chart reveals the difficulty in pushing consistently above the prior high, as gold bulls failed to maintain upward momentum above $2,450 an ounce. Gold (XAU/USD) Weekly Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Gold volatility has subsided now that tensions in eastern Europe and the Middle East have cooled, although, fighting carries on. 30-day implied gold volatility (GVZ) has picked up more recently but it will take a major catalyst from here to entice buyers to return in a meaningful way to sustain prices well above the all-time high. Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-price-update-september-rate-cut-reawakens-gold-bulls-20240715.html

2024-07-15 14:01

BTC/USD and ETH/USD Latest Bitcoin eyes $65k as buyers dominate recent price action. Will Ethereum spot ETFs be launched this month? The cryptocurrency market turned higher over the weekend and in early European trade, regaining some of June’s hefty losses. After touching a $72k high in early June, sellers took control of the market and pushed BTC/USD down to a multi-month of $53.5k on July 5th. During this period, the German government sold approximately 50k Bitcoin into the market, coins that had been confiscated from the illegal streaming site Movie2k. On-chain analysis shows the German government’s cryptocurrency wallet now has a zero Bitcoin balance. The daily Bitcoin chart shows BTC/USD back above the 20-day and the 200-day simple moving averages. A reclaim of the 50-dsma at $64k and a prior swing high at just under $65k would set the tone for a higher move. BTC/USD Daily Price Chart On the weekly chart, a bullish cup and handle pattern continues to be formed and suggests that Bitcoin will move higher over the coming months. BTC/USD Weekly Price Chart Ethereum traders are waiting for launch dates from the SEC on the highly anticipated Ethereum spot ETFs. In late May the SEC gave the regulatory go-ahead to several spot Ethereum ETFs from eight providers, including BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, and VanEck. Final SEC approval and launch date are expected shortly. In line with Bitcoin, Ethereum has climbed higher over the last week and is also back above both the 20-day and 200-day simple moving averages. The 50-day sma is currently located at just under $3.5k. Above here, $3.6k comes into view, ahead of a recent lower high at just under $4k, before the March 11th multi-month high at $4,095 comes into play. ETH/USD Daily Price Chart What is your view on Bitcoin and Ethereum – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/bitcoin-and-ethereum-trade-sharply-higher-btc-usd-and-eth-usd-latest-20240715.html

2024-07-12 16:25

Market Week Ahead: ECB, China, Inflation, US Earnings, Tech Stocks ECB will guide towards a September rate cut. China Plenum starts on Monday. Inflation reports from the UK, Euro Area, and Japan. US banks continue to report earnings along with Netflix and TSM. US tech stocks coming under pressure. A busy week ahead, full of key data, events, and Q3 US earnings, all with market-moving potential. The ECB is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s meeting but will likely give the market further guidance that interest rates will come down again at the September 12 meeting. Financial markets are currently pricing in an additional 45 basis points of interest rate cuts in 2024. EUR/USD Nears a Fresh Four-Month High The Third China Plenum starts on Monday 15th, a full meeting of the Central Committee, one of the most powerful decision-making bodies in China's political structure. Plenums are used to discuss and decide on major policies, laws, and personnel changes. The meeting often sets the direction for significant reforms or initiatives and can impact China's economic, political, and social policies. Decisions made here can have a long-term effect on China’s financial markets. SSE Composite Index Remains Under Pressure US earnings season continues apace with notable releases from financial heavyweights BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley. In addition, Netflix, a member of the Magnificent Seven, and chip giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing will also open their books. See the DailyFX Earnings Calendar for a comprehensive schedule of release dates Away from the economic data and events calendar, the Nasdaq 100, and to a lesser extent the S&P 500, will come under scrutiny after the sharp correction seen on Thursday. While Thursday’s sell-off may be seen as a correction within a longer-term trend higher, the dependence on just a small percentage of stocks to drive the index higher may become a problem. Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF Daily Chart All Charts using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/market-week-ahead-ecb-inflation-us-earnings-tech-stocks-20240712.html