2024-01-31 13:42

EUR/USD Forecast - Prices, Charts, and Analysis German inflation continues to fall as energy costs tumble. FOMC and US NFPs will steer EUR/USD in the short term. Most Read: Euro (EUR/USD) Pares Recent Losses After German and Euro Aera Q4 Releases German inflation fell by more than expected in January, official data showed today, hitting the lowest level since June 2021, as goods inflation fell sharply. Energy costs fell by 2.8%, compared to a 4.1% increase in December, while food inflation fell from 4.5% to 3.8%. The single currency has been under of pressure recently as expectations grow that the European Central Bank (ECB) will start to trim borrowing costs at the April 11th meeting. Euro Area interest rate probabilities currently show a 75% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the start of Q2 with a series of cuts taking the Deposit Rate down to 2.50% by the end of the year. EUR/USD briefly dipped below 1.0800 on Tuesday but did not test a prior level of horizontal support at 1.0787. The pair are currently trading on either side of the 200-day simple moving average around 1.0840 and are likely to remain around this level ahead of this evening's FOMC meeting. Chair Powell is expected to leave US interest rates untouched but may give some more detail about when the Fed will start to cut interest rates at the post-decision press conference. EUR/USD Daily Chart Charts Using TradingView IG retail trader data show 55.75% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.26 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 1.04% lower than yesterday and 3.74% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.31% lower than yesterday and 6.77% lower than last week. What is your view on the EURO – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/euro-eur-usd-steadies-after-german-inflation-falls-fomc-decision-up-next-20240131.html

2024-01-31 12:30

Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Analysis and Charts USD/JPY has ticked up for a second straight session However it remains confined to its broad trading range The Fed isn’t expected to move on rates, but will it push back market views of when it might? Learn How to Trade USD/JPY with our Free Guide The Japanese Yen is a little weaker against a United States Dollar benefitting from some general strength as markets await the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate call of the year. That will be coming up after European markets wind down on Wednesday, at 1900 GMT. The US central bank isn’t expected to alter borrowing costs this time around. However, the markets still expect some pretty deep reductions this year, and the extent to which Fed commentary confirms that thesis is likely to be the main point of this Open Market Committee meeting for traders and economists alike. One major concern is that there’s been plenty of economic data out of the world’s largest economy lately which might suggest it's not exactly crying out for economic stimulus. Overall growth data for 2023’s last quarter was much stronger than expected. While that series is open to accusations of being a little historic now, January’s more up-to-date consumer confidence snapshot found consumers more upbeat than at any time since late 2021. The labor market remains pretty tight, too. What this means for the near-term is that the idea of a US interest rate cut as soon as March looks more uncertain than it did. If the Fed does anything to underline this view, causing expectations of action to be pushed back further, the Dollar could gain further. The Japanese economy is also seeing some jobs-market strength according to the most recent numbers. Enduring wage growth is probably the single key factor after inflation most likely to see the Bank of Japan tighten its ultra-loose monetary policy at long last. However, it has already declined to do so once in 2024. While the debate as to when it might will run on, for now, trade in USD/JPY is all about the Fed. USD/JPY Technical Analysis USD/JPY Chart Compiled Using TradingView There are some clear similarities in the daily charts of both USD/JPY and GBP/USD, with both pairs establishing trading ranges close to recent highs and bounded at their lower edges by key Fibonacci retracement levels. In USD/JPY’s case that comes in at 146.724, a support level which has held since mid-January. Resistance at the band’s upper limit is at 148.805, the intraday top of November 28. Dollar bulls will need to get a lot more comfortable above the 148 psychological resistance level than they have in the last couple of weeks. Whether or not that happens seems highly dependent on the fundamentals. IG’s sentiment data finds traders profoundly bearish on USD/JPY at the moment, to the tune of 73% expecting falls. This might well be the sort of level that argues for a contrarian bullish play. --By David Cottle for DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/japanese-yen-weakens-as-perky-dollar-looks-to-fed-guidance-20240131.html

2024-01-31 11:00

FTSE 100, DAX 40, and S&P 500 Analysis and Charts FTSE 100 continues to grind higher The FTSE 100’s swift advance on Friday amid rallying luxury good stocks and general risk-on sentiment has slowed but the index remains bid ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy meeting. A rise above Tuesday’s 7,685 high would engage the 11 January high at 7,694 and also the mid-October high at 7,702. Minor support below Friday’s high and Tuesday’s low at 7,653 to 7,642 can be found around the 12 December 7,609 high and at the 16 January 7,587 high. FTSE 100 Daily Chart Retail trader data shows 42.07% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.38 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 4.75% lower than yesterday and 44.41% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.87% higher than yesterday and 88.37% higher than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests FTSE 100 prices may continue to rise. DAX 40 trades marginally below a new record high The DAX 40 index’s mid-January advance has taken it above its December record high at 17,003 to a new record high at 17,016 on Tuesday despite the Eurozone reporting zero GDP growth in the fourth quarter, narrowly avoiding a recession, and the IMF lowering Germany’s 2024 growth forecast from 0.9% to 0.5%. A weaker open on Wednesday and possible slip through Tuesday’s low at 16,913 would put Monday’s low at 16,860 back on the map which could indicate the beginning of a corrective move lower taking shape. Resistance above the breached January uptrend line at 16,976 sits in the 17,003 to 17,016 region. DAX 40 Daily Chart S&P 500 consolidates below record highs ahead of Fed decision The S&P 500 is seen coming off this week’s new record high at 4,931 as investors cash in profits ahead of today’s US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting and as last night Alphabet, Microsoft, and AMD dragged the index lower despite decent results but a poor outlook for the latter. A slip through Tuesday’s 4,899 low would engage last Tuesday’s high and Monday’s low at 4,885 to 4,878. Strong resistance sits at this week’s record high at 4,931. S&P 500 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ftse-100-dax-40-and-s-p-500-take-a-breather-ahead-of-fed-meeting-20240131.html

2024-01-31 09:13

AUD/USD, ASX 200 Analysis AUD/USD turns lower ahead of FOMC statement this evening ASX 200 prints new all-time high as lingering suspicions of further hikes diminish The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Australian inflation beat estimates for the final quarter of 2023, coming in at 4.1% vs 4.3% expected and lower than the prior 5.4% AUD/USD Turns Lower Ahead of FOMC Statement This Evening The Aussie dollar eased against the US and Kiwi dollars as well as the Japanese yen after better-than-expected inflation data provided greater clarity on future rate cuts. The RBA has found dealing with inflation rather tricky, having to reinstitute rate hikes twice as price pressures proved difficult to contain. Having only stopped hiking the cash rate in November, market expectations were on the cautious side when it came to the magnitude of rate cuts anticipated for 2024 but now there is an expectation of 50 basis points coming off the benchmark interest rate. The pair trades within an ascending channel which appears a lot like a bear flag when you consider the sharpness of the bearish move before it. Price action attempted to break lower but looks on track to close within the bounds of the channel unless the Fed has something to say about that. In the event the Fed signal a preference not to cut in March, USD could see limited gains, lowering AUD/USD in the process. Alternatively, should markets get the impression that March is more likely, the dollar may come under some pressure, lifting AUD/USD. AUD/USD trades in the vicinity of a notable confluence of support around the 0.6580 level; which coincides with the 200 simple moving average (SMA) and channel support. A conclusive break below the channel highlights the January swing low at 0.6525 before 0.6460 – the May 2023 swing low. However, the MACD indicator reveals a slowing of bearish momentum, with a bullish crossover in sight. AUD/USD levels to the upside include the channel high of 0.6624 and 0.6680 the pre-pandemic low. AUD/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow ASX 200 prints new all-time high as Lingering Suspicion of Further Hikes Diminish The Australian stock market (ASX 200) has reached a new all-time high, boosted by recent inflation data that revealed progress in the fight against price pressures. Improving sentiment around China is also likely to add somewhat to the optimism around Aussie stocks despite the Chinese bourse failing to halt a three-day decline. The IMF upgraded its forecast of Chinese GDP in recognition of fiscal support measures instituted by officials. The index rose above the prior all-time high of 76.41, trading as high as 7682.30 before closing slightly below the high. ASX 200 Weekly Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/asx-achieved-a-record-high-after-cooler-aussie-inflation-aud-usd-weaker-20240131.html

2024-01-30 19:00

Article by IG Market Analyst Hebe Chen Amazon Earnings: Amazon is scheduled to release its Q4, 2023 earnings on February 1st, 2024, after the closure of US markets. Amazon Q4 expectations and key watches: The anticipated earnings report for the upcoming quarter indicates a substantial improvement in earnings per share (EPS), projected to be $0.79. This marks a significant increase from the same quarter in 2022, where the EPS was only $0.12 per share. Regarding revenue, Amazon's Q4 guidance from the previous earnings report suggests that net sales are expected to range between $160.0 billion and $167.0 billion. This represents a growth rate of 7% to 12% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, also double-digit growth from the previous quarter. Additionally, the forecast for operating income falls between $7.0 billion and $11.0 billion, a notable increase from the $2.7 billion reported in the fourth quarter of 2022. Source: Amazon In terms of key business units, Amazon's leading cloud service, AWS, is expected to showcase robust growth once again. AWS’s sale is anticipated to grow 15% year-over-year Q4, a slight improvement from the previous period's 12%, while maintaining an impressive operating margin above 30%. Despite encountering intense competition from Microsoft’s Azure and a stabilizing growth rate and Google Cloud, Amazon’s leading position in the cloud service has been further fortified by the AI surge, with existing customers now initiating generative AI workloads on AWS. Another major area to monitor in the upcoming earnings report will be Amazon's online advertising business. In the third quarter, this segment recorded $12.06 billion in revenue, indicating a 26% increase from the corresponding period in the previous year. The fourth quarter, encompassing the traditional holiday shopping period, is expected to attract more shoppers to the e-commerce platform, providing Amazon with an additional boost to its retail and advertising income. Amazon share price: Amazon stock outperformed the S&P500 benchmark in 2023, boasting an impressive 63% yearly gain and securing its position as one of the best performers in the Magnificent Seven club. The e-commerce giant has unquestionably come out of the woods from the 2022 meltdown, impressing investors with its robust growth and promising outlook. Therefore, it’s not too surprising that based on the IG platform’s TipRanks rating, the smart score for Amazon is 9 out of 10. Over the last three months, all 37 surveyed analysts have rated Amazon as a 'buy.' Source: IG From a technical standpoint, as observed on the weekly chart, Amazon’s stock prices continue to push towards the early 2022 high, with the $160 level appearing to be a significant hurdle and testing point ahead of the earnings report. From a longer-term perspective, the uptrend in price remains robust. Notably, the reversed head-and-shoulders pattern could unlock more upside potential once the shoulder line for this pattern, which also sits around $160, is conquered. In the near term, based on the daily chart, imminent support can be found at $155, and a further decline may bring the 20-day SMA into view. Amazon Weekly Chart Source: IG Amazon Daily Chart Source: Tradingview https://www.dailyfx.com/news/amazon-q4-earnings-preview-what-to-expect-20240130.html

2024-01-30 17:00

NASDAQ 100, USD/JPY, GOLD FORECAST The Fed’s monetary policy announcement will steal the spotlight on Wednesday No interest rate changes are expected, but the central bank is likely to update its forward guidance This article analyzes the technical outlook for gold prices, USD/JPY and the Nasdaq 100 Most Read: Gold Price Forecast - Fed Decision to Guide Trend, Critical Levels For XAU/USD The Federal Reserve is set to unveil its first monetary policy decision of the year this Wednesday. This high-profile event is likely to trigger higher-than-normal volatility in the upcoming trading sessions, so traders should be prepared for the possibility of treacherous market conditions and, perhaps, wild price swings. According to consensus expectations, the Fed is likely to maintain its key interest rate unchanged, within the present range of 5.25% to 5.50%. The institution led by Jerome Powell may also opt to drop its tightening bias from the post-meeting statement, effectively and officially signaling a transition towards an easing stance. While economic resilience argues for retaining a hawkish tilt, the central bank could begin leaning towards a more dovish approach, fearing that delaying a “pivot” may inflict needless damage to the labor market. Acting early, essentially, mitigates the risk of having to implement more extreme accommodative measures when the economy has already begun to roll over. Access a well-rounded view of the U.S. dollar’s outlook by securing your complimentary copy of the Q1 forecast! It’s still an open question whether the central bank will lay the groundwork for the first rate cut in the March meeting, but if it subtly endorses this trajectory, yields, especially short-dated ones, could see a precipitous retracement. Such an outcome could bode well for stocks and gold prices but would be bearish for the U.S. dollar. In the event of the FOMC leaning on the hawkish side to maintain flexibility and ample room to maneuver, yields and the U.S. dollar will be well positioned for a strong rally, as traders unwind dovish bets on the monetary policy outlook. This scenario may create a challenging backdrop for both the equity market and gold prices. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold climbed above trendline resistance on Monday but has struggled to sustain the breakout, with prices retracing previously accumulated gains on Tuesday. If the pullback intensifies and results in a drop below the 50-day SMA, we could soon see a retest of $2,005. On further weakness, all eyes will be on $1,990. On the other hand, if buyers return and spark a meaningful rebound, the first line of defense against a bullish offensive appears at $2,050, followed by $2,065. Further upward momentum from this juncture could potentially establish the conditions for a rally toward $2,065. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY sold off earlier in the week but managed to rebound off the 100-day simple moving average – key technical floor. If gains pick up impetus over the coming days, primary resistance is positioned at 148.20, followed by 149.00. Looking higher, the crosshairs will be on the 150.00 handle. In case of a bearish reversal, initial support appears at 147.40. Prices are likely to stabilize in this area during a retracement and on a retest, but if a breakdown occurs at some point, the exchange rate will have fewer obstacles to gravitate toward the 146.00 handle. USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView If you're looking for an in-depth analysis of U.S. equity indices, our first-quarter stock market trading forecast is packed with great fundamental and technical insights. Get it now! NASDAQ 100 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS While the Nasdaq 100 remains entrenched in a solid uptrend, there are signs that a correction could be on the horizon in light of overbought market conditions and the index’s proximity to a significant resistance zone near 17,790. In the event of a large pullback, support lies at 17,450, followed by 17,150. Conversely, if the bulls maintain their dominance in the market and successfully propel prices above resistance at 17,790, FOMO mentality is likely to pull skeptical investors off the sidelines and boost sentiment, setting the stage for a possible rally above the psychological 18,000 level. NASDAQ 100 TECHNICAL CHART Nasdaq 100 Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-fomc-preview-price-action-setups-on-gold-usd-jpy-and-nasdaq-100-20240130.html