2024-01-29 19:00

Article by IG Market Analyst Tony Sycamore When will Microsoft Corp report its latest earnings? Microsoft Corp is scheduled to report its second (Q2) earnings on Tuesday, January 30th, 2024, after the market closes. The backdrop Investors cheered Microsoft's first-quarter results, reported in late October, as it beat Wall Street's estimates and promised future product offerings infused with AI. "With copilots, we are making the age of AI real for people and businesses everywhere," said Satya Nadella, chairman and chief executive officer of Microsoft. "We are rapidly infusing AI across every layer of the tech stack and for every role and business process to drive productivity gains for our customers." Microsoft FY24 Q1 Financial Summary Source Microsoft Within the details, Microsoft reported the following highlights. • Revenue from Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud segment was $24.3 billion, up 19%. Within that, Server products and cloud services revenue increased by 21%, driven by Azure and other cloud services revenue growth of 29%. • Revenue in Productivity and Business Processes was $18.6 billion, up 13%. Within that, Office Commercial products and cloud services revenue increased by 15%, driven by Office 365 Commercial revenue growth of 18% • Revenue in More Personal Computing was $13.7 billion and increased 3%. Within that Windows revenue increased 5%, with Windows OEM revenue growth of 4% and Windows Commercial products and cloud services revenue growth of 8%. What to look for in Q2? In its Q1 earnings call, Microsoft provided the following forward-looking guidance for Q2. Microsoft Outlook Slide. Source Microsoft. • During 1Q, Microsoft saw its Azure cloud revenue growth accelerate after two years of deceleration. Analysts will likely look for more of the same in its Q2 Earnings Report. • There will be keen interest in the uptake and impact of the Microsoft 365 CoPilot AI add-on, launched last year and is available via subscription. So far, it has met with a mixed reception. • Microsoft completed its $68.7 billion acquisition of video game publisher Activision Blizzard in mid-October. As such, it will affect earnings for Q2, and executives will likely discuss Activision Blizzard when providing guidance for Q3. • Management thoughts and insights into the recent drama at OpenAI and any opinions on the current OpenAI board structure. Key Financials - Summary Wall Street's expectations for the upcoming results are as follows. • Earnings per share: $2.77 vs. $2.99 in Q1 • Revenue: $61.1bn billion vs. $56.52billion in Q1 Microsofts Revenue Source Trading Economics Technical Analysis Building on an almost 57% gain in 2023, Microsoft's share price has surged over 6% in the opening weeks of 2024, as investors began the new year with renewed enthusiasm for tech stocks that offer exposure to AI. The chart of Microsoft's share price is a textbook example of a market in an uptrend, putting in place a sequence of higher highs and higher lows punctuated by corrective and orderly pullbacks. The RSI is now pushing into overbought territory, which offers hope that a pullback may not be too far away, providing an opportunity to buy Microsoft shares at better levels. Near-term horizontal support comes in at $380/378 and below that at $360ish, coming from July highs/ December lows. Medium-term support is strong $350/335 area, coming from the uptrend drawn from January 2023 $219.35 low and the 200-day moving average at $337.00. Aware that a sustained break below $335 would negate the uptrend and warn a deeper pullback is underway. Summary Microsoft Corp is scheduled to report its second (Q2) earnings on Tuesday, January 30th, 2024, after the market closes. The price action in the lead-up to the report suggests the market is looking for both an earnings beat and positive forward guidance. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/microsoft-corp-q2-2024-earnings-preview-20240129.html

2024-01-29 17:00

EUR/USD OUTLOOK EUR/USD slides on Monday, falling to its lowest level since in nearly seven weeks The pair is on track to lose 2.1% in January Fed decision to dominate attention this week Most Read: Gold Price Forecast: Fed Decision to Guide Trend, Critical Levels For XAU/USD The euro weakened more than 0.4% against the U.S. dollar on Monday, with the EUR/USD exchange rate falling below 1.0800 at one point during the trading session – a multi-week low. The common currency has been on the defensive in recent days after ECB President Christine Lagarde failed to challenge market pricing of deep rate cuts at the January gathering, and several other policymakers signaled that the next move would be a cut. Losses for the euro could accelerate if the FOMC surprises this week with a hawkish stance at the end of its first meeting of 2024. Although the central bank is seen holding its policy settings unchanged, it may issue new guidance on the outlook for interest rates. With the U.S. economy still firing on all cylinders and the labor market displaying remarkable resilience, there’s a chance that the Fed could come out swinging and push back forcefully against expectations for premature and extreme easing. This outcome would spell trouble for EUR/USD. In the event of the FOMC leaning on the dovish side, U.S. Treasury yields are likely nosedive, propelling EUR/USD higher. This scenario should not be completely ruled out, as progress on the U.S. inflation front may nudge the Fed to start laying the groundwork for rate cuts in the coming months. For an extensive analysis of the euro’s medium-term outlook, request out complimentary Q1 technical and fundamental forecast. EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD has been losing ground since late 2023, guided lower by a descending trend line, extended from the December high. More recently, the pair has broken below its 200-day simple moving average, triggering a bearish signal for price action. If the downtrend persists in the near future, support appears at 1.0770, followed by 1.0715. On further weakness, all eyes will be on 1.0640. Conversely, if bulls stage a comeback and push prices upward, resistance stretches from 1.0850 to 1.0865. Looking higher, attention shifts to 1.0920/1.0935. EUR/USD TECHNICAL CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-euro-forecast-eur-usd-on-breakdown-watch-ahead-of-fed-decision-20240129.html

2024-01-29 15:42

US Dollar, (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY) Analysis EUR/USD slides ahead of crucial EU growth data while USD receives a Bid GBP/USD could test range support this week USD/JPY suggests the yen may find it difficult to depreciate from here The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library EUR/USD Slides Ahead of Crucial EU Growth Data While USD Receives a Bid EUR/USD slid moments after the Wall Street Journal reported that Iranian allies brace for response after a deadly drone strike killed three Americans at a US outpost in Jordan. The attack is the latest in the evolving conflict in the Middle East and now that US soldiers have been affected, has the potential to escalate tensions to another level. The potential for widening conflict has seen the dollar receive a bid on Monday in what appears to be related to the safe-haven properties associated with the world’s reserve currency. However, another safe haven asset, gold is yet to respond in a similar fashion, meaning the move may simply be a function of market positioning ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting which gets under way tomorrow. Furthermore, German and EU GDP for the fourth quarter could very well confirm a technical recession as the economic outlook in Europe continues to deteriorate. Just this morning the ECB’s Centeno mentioned the April meeting as a possibility for the first rate cut, motivating that it is not necessary to wait for wage growth data that becomes available in May. Not helping the matter is the case of a fast declining 2-year Bund yield (German government bond) which is dragging the Euro lower. EUR/USD has dropped below the prior low observed yesterday and trades will below 1.0830 – a prior level of interest. The pair also appears breaks below the 20 simple moving average which had provided dynamic support over the last eight trading sessions on a closings basis. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023 decline presents the next level of support at 1.0764 followed by 1.0700. Resistance appears at the blue 50-day simple moving average, then the zone at 1.0950. EUR/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow GBP/USD Could Test Range Support This Week GBP/USD trades within the broad range as price action has been largely side-ways with a well-defined trough and peak. The blue 50 SMA has provided dynamic support for the pair which is not directly under threat of a move to the downside. Support appears at 1.2585, followed by the 200 SMA (red line). The MACD indicator reveals the general bearish momentum which could see the pair test channel support this week. The Bank of England provides an update on its interest rate settings and updated quarterly forecasts to help markets gain insight into the committees thinking. Should the bank remain unmoved and issue a dovish address, sterling may come under further pressure. GBP/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow USD/JPY suggests the yen may find it difficult to depreciate from here USD/JPY price action appears to have formed a bullish pennant, a bullish continuation pattern. On an intra-day basis though, USD/JPY is down on the day thus far when the likes of EUR/USD and GBP/USD both appear susceptible to dollar strength. The yen has often been driven by the first eventual interest rate hike from the BoJ in years but easing inflation had tempered those expectations. After this month's Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting, the yen appears to have stopped depreciating at the very least and could push back against the dollar unless incoming data points show disinflation. However, the BoJ Governor Ueda himself stated that the likelihood of the 2% inflation target being hit is steadily rising and this is despite the two consecutive months of lower CPI readings. 150 is still the key level to the upside while 146.50 and 145 are levels to monitor to the downside. The RSI nears overbought territory, signalling that a pullback in due course would not be out of the ordinary. USD/JPY Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Major Risk Events for the Week Ahead: https://www.dailyfx.com/news/usd-ahead-of-fomc-eur-usd-gbp-usd-usd-jpy-setups-20240129.html

2024-01-29 14:00

Crude Oil Prices, Analysis, and Chart A deadly attack on US service personnel has market focus firmly on Middle East conflict Crude price benchmarks have slipped after days of strong gains Near-term fundamentals remain supportive Demand backdrop remains clouded Learn How to Trade Oil with our Complimentary Guide Crude Oil prices retreated a little on Monday after a string of gains last week took them back to highs not seen for twelve weeks. The West Texas Intermediate benchmark has edged back above $78/barrel for the first time since November 30. While a little pause for reflection is surely reasonable enough after a strong run, the near-term fundamentals continue to look very supportive. United States President Jo Biden has vowed a response to weekend attacks by reportedly Iranian-backed militia in Yemen which left three troops dead. Congressional hawks are already calling for a strike on Iran itself in retaliation and, whether this happens or not, it seems escalation in the Gaza/Red Sea conflict nexus is sadly assured. Away from that region, the market is looking for more stimulus out of Beijing and, on Wednesday, confirmation that the US Federal Reserve is still on board with market hopes that interest rates will be heading significantly lower this year. While there’s scope for disappointment on both counts, oil prices have found support in both hopes. Throw in last week’s news that the US economy expanded ahead of expectations in the final three months of 2023 and it is clear enough why oil prices should be gaining. The backdrop is, however, a little more clouded than the current upbeat assessment might suggest. Notwithstanding those stimulus efforts and others, the market faces plentiful oil supply and decidedly uncertain end-user demand. However, this reality seems unlikely to reassert itself while Middle Eastern geopolitics remains in charge of the headlines. In terms of scheduled data, the Fed will be running the table for energy markets this week, as for all others. There are some other points of interest though, including Eurozone growth data and the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. US Crude Oil Prices Technical Analysis Chart Compiled Using TradingView Prices appear to have faltered at a point that confirms a broad uptrend channel in place since December 13. The rejection of that channel top at $79.07 isn’t quite conclusive at this point but still bears watching. Support is likely at $76.79, the first, Fibonacci retracement of the rise from those mid-December lows. Bulls will need to recapture a trading band bounded by November 1’s intraday low of $80.23 and November 3’s high of $83.55 and consolidate their position there if they are going to make progress back to last year’s high of $94.98. Retaking that would be a massive ask even given current fundamental support. In any case a period of consolidation looks likely now, albeit within the broader uptrend, which remains in place down to $73. Crude’s Relative Strength Index is getting close to overbought territory having risen steadily into 2024. --By David Cottle for DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/crude-oil-prices-slip-after-strong-run-market-awaits-us-jordan-response-20240129.html

2024-01-29 12:29

Gold and Silver Analysis and Charts US warns of reprisal as Middle East tensions grow further. Gold and silver propped up ahead of the FOMC decision and NFPs Most Read: Markets Week Ahead: Fed and BoE Decisions, US Jobs Data, Microsoft, Apple Amazon Report The US has blamed Iran-backed militia for the deadly drone strikes on US service personnel at an American base in northeast Jordan with President Joe Biden pledging retaliation ‘at a time and a place of our choosing'. Iran has denied claims that it was involved in the drone attacks. There are fears that if the US responds to these attacks Iran will retaliate, escalating tensions in an already volatile Middle East environment. It's a busy week for commodity traders with both the Fed and the BoE policy decisions on tap while at the end of the week, the latest US Jobs Report (NFP) is released. Financial markets are currently pricing in a near 50/50 chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the March 20th FOMC meeting with around 136bps of cuts seen in total this year. Learn How to Trade Gold with our Complimentary Guide Gold has been stuck in a narrow $38/oz. range for the last 12 days with neither buyers nor sellers taking control of price action. This stalemate is likely to continue until Wednesday’s FOMC decision unless Middle East tensions ratchet up further, and it is the post-decision press conference that will be the next driver of price action. While Chair Jerome Powell is unlikely to give a firm timetable as to when rate cuts will start, his language may give the markets a hint of future action. Until then, gold is likely to stay in a sideways pattern. Gold Daily Price Chart Chart via TradingView Retail trader data show 61.96% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.63 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 1.97% higher than yesterday and 6.24% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.17% higher than yesterday and 5.91% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. See how daily and weekly changes in IG Retail Trader data can affect sentiment and price action. After weeks of underperforming gold, silver has put in a better shift over the last week and pared some of its recent losses. The daily chart still looks negative but if silver can break back above the 20-day simple moving average, further losses are likely to be contained. A cluster of prior highs and the 50- and 200-day moving averages on either side of $23.50 will cap any potential rally. Silver Price Daily Chart What is your view on Gold and Silver – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-and-silver-push-higher-as-middle-east-tensions-escalate-fomc-and-us-nfps-near-20240129.html

2024-01-29 09:29

Evergrande Group, AUD/USD, USD/CNH Latest Evergrande liquidation having limited impact thus far – USD/CNH contained Australian dollar struggles for direction, will high impact data help? The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Evergrande Liquidation Having Limited Impact Thus Far – USD/CNH Contained Earlier this morning a Hong Kong court ordered the liquidation of Evergrande Group after failing to provide a concrete restructuring plan in the years following its first default in 2021. Shares of the stock and its subsidiaries were halted and the Group's share price had already fallen around 20% in the lead up to the decision. However when looking at the forex market, general sentiment appears unaffected -something that has also rubbed off on the Australian dollar. USD/CNH continues to oscillate around the 200 day simple moving average, currently testing the area of confluence made-up of the 200 SMA and the late 2019 level of 7.1965. Despite the US dollar expected to see a move lower this year, shorter-term signals and strong fundamental data suggests it may be supported over the short to medium-term. USD/CNH has given back some ground after strengthening in the wake of an announcement from Chinese officials to lower banks’ reserve requirements, freeing up more capital to stimulate credit markets. USD/CNH Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Australian Dollar Struggles for Direction, Will High Impact Data Help? The Australian dollar rose ever so slightly but remains within a sideways, consolidation pattern. Aussie inflation data has proven to be stubborn relative to other developed markets but is expected to ease for the fourth quarter of 2023. The Australian dollar was previously on a downward trajectory as the economic outlook for China deteriorated. However the pair, appears content oscillating around the 200 SMA and the 0.6580 level. The MACD indicator suggests that bearish momentum may be slowing in the coming sessions but further upside will be difficult to come by given the support for the US dollar leading into the FOMC meeting which begins tomorrow. Volatility is expected to pick up in the lead up to the event meaning an attempt to trade outside the recent range is on the cards but continued momentum is doubtful. Resistance appears at 0.6680 with support at 0.6460. In the meantime, intra-day levels linked to the high and low of the recent consolidation pattern (0.6621 and 0.6525) can be used as tripwires for a potential false breakout unless markets receive new key information from Jerome Powell and the Fed. AUD/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Major Risk Events Ahead In the coming week we get Australian inflation data which is expected to print lower in Q4. We then get manufacturing data out of China which is still expected to remain in contraction with the PMI figure expected to be 49.2. However, the main event this week is undoubtedly the Fed interest rate decision and press conference. Strong economic data in the US is likely to see the Fed take a more measured response to the market’s fairly aggressive rate cut expectations – downplaying the notion of an imminent rate cut. Further afield, we get non-farm payroll data on Friday where there is an expectation of 173,000 jobs having been added in January with the unemployment rate ticking ever so slightly higher at 3.8%, up from 3.7%. A robust labour market remains a concern for the Fed as elevated interest rates ought to see unemployment rising, helping to cool inflation expectations. This has not unfolded as expected and has supported a case for a soft landing now that disinflation is taking hold. Unemployment below the 4% marker really tells a story of a strong labour market. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/asia-update-evergrande-liquidation-order-fails-to-sour-the-mood-aud-cnh-20240129.html