2024-01-28 18:00

Markets Week Ahead: Fed and BoE Decisions, US Jobs Data, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon Report For all earnings releases, see the DailyFX Earnings Calendar US equity markets continue to make fresh multi-year/decade/all-time records as investors remain firmly risk-on. The upcoming Big 7 earnings release will weigh on the indices, due to their heavy weighting, leaving markets at risk. Last week Tesla (TSLA) disappointed the market and slumped by around 12% after their earnings were released. Tesla Daily Price Chart ECB Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged, EUR/USD Listless Ahead of Press Conference and US Q4 GDP The Euro came under pressure last week despite the ECB leaving all monetary policy settings untouched. The markets are looking at Germany and the Euro Area and are now aggressively pricing in a series of interest rate cuts as economic growth in the region flatlines. Next week’s Euro Area and German GDP data will be closely monitored by the ECB and the market. Euro Rate Probabilities – Are Six 25bp ECB cuts on the cards? The US dollar remains in focus but last week’s price action was listless. The US dollar index closed within a handful of pips of where it opened the week, despite a slightly better-than-expected US Core PCE report, and a robust advanced Q4 GDP release. US Dollar Index Daily Chart Technical and Fundamental Forecasts – w/c January 22nd Gold Price Forecast: Fed Decision to Guide Trend, Critical Levels for XAU/USD This article focuses on gold’s technical outlook, examining important price thresholds that traders may find relevant in the coming days. US Dollar Forecast: USD at the Mercy of the Fed, BoE and NFP Ahead The US dollar has benefitted from cooling Fed cut expectations and robust economic data. The greenback’s rise appears likely to continue in a data-heavy week. Euro (EUR/USD) Weekly Outlook: Important GDP, Jobs and Inflation Data on the Docket Next Week After a neutral ECB meeting on Thursday, next week sees some heavyweight EU economic data hit the screens including GDP, Inflation, and Jobs. British Pound Weekly Forecast: Could BoE Sound More Comfy With Rate Cuts? The Pound and the Dollar will both look to their respective central banks this week. Market rate pricing probably poses the biggest risk. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/markets-week-ahead-fed-and-boe-decisions-us-jobs-data-microsoft-apple-amazon-report-20240128.html

2024-01-27 18:00

GOLD PRICE FORECAST Gold prices (XAU/USD) have managed to rebound modestly in recent days, but it continues to exhibit a consolidation-oriented bias Volatility could pick up next week, with the Fed decision on the economic calendar This article focuses on gold’s technical outlook, examining important price thresholds that could be relevant in the upcoming days Most Read: USD/JPY in Consolidation Stage but Fed Decision May Spark Big Directional Move In terms of expectations, the U.S. central bank is seen holding borrowing costs unchanged but could drop its tightening bias from the post-meeting policy statement. While strong economic growth, as reflected in the latest GDP report, argues in favor of policymakers retaining a hawkish tilt, progress on disinflation makes the case to start laying the groundwork for a shift toward an easing stance. It is for this reason that a dovish outcome should not be entirely ruled out. Eager to gain insights into gold's future path? Discover the answers in our complimentary quarterly trading guide. Request a copy now! In the event of Chair Powell embracing a softer position and signaling that deliberations on the broad parameters for rate cuts are well-advanced and have progressed further compared to the previous meeting, traders should prepare for the possibility of a sharp pullback in bond yields. This should support gold prices. The opposite is also true. If the FOMC chair chooses to push back against market pricing for deep rate reductions and the timing of the first cut, yields should continue to recover, boosting the U.S. dollar and weighing on precious metals. However, given Powell's pivot last month, this scenario is less likely to materialize. GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS After dipping to multi-week lows last week, gold has rebounded modestly, but it continues to exhibit a consolidation-oriented bias, with prices trapped between trendline resistance at $2,030 and horizontal support at $2,005. For significant directional moves to occur in the coming days, either of these two thresholds will need to be taken out. Assessing possible outcomes, a resistance breakout could propel XAU/USD towards $2,065. On further strength, the bulls may initiate an assault on $2,080. Conversely, in the event of a support breach, we could see a retracement toward $1,990, followed by $1,975. Continued weakness from this point onward may bring the 200-day moving average into play. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-price-forecast-fed-decision-to-guide-trend-critical-levels-for-xau-usd-20240127.html

2024-01-26 16:30

USD/JPY FORECAST: USD/JPY has lacked directional conviction in recent days, with prices compressed between support and resistance Volatility, however, could pick up next week, as the FOMC decision could alter current market dynamics No change in monetary policy is expected, but the Fed may embrace a more dovish position on the back of significant progress on the inflation front Most Read: Euro (EUR/USD) Under Pressure as Markets Push the ECB to Start Cutting Rates Earlier USD/JPY has lacked directional conviction in recent sessions, moving between overhead resistance at 148.80 and horizontal support at 147.40. Next week, however, could see more significant moves, as the Federal Reserve’s decision should to inject heightened volatility into financial markets. Focusing on the Fed’s announcement, no monetary policy changes are expected at the January gathering, but the institution could remove the tightening bias from the post-meeting statement and embrace a more neutral message following encouraging progress on the inflation front. In addition, traders should not find it surprising if further discussions about the overarching criteria for reducing rates unfold at the latest conclave. In that sense, if Powell signals that deliberations have reached a more advanced stage, markets may move to price in a March rate cut with greater probability – a bearish outcome for the U.S. dollar. On the flip side, if the central bank retains a hawkish tone for fear that relaxed financial conditions could reignite inflationary pressures and refrains from teeing up a rate cut for the near term, we could see yields moving higher across the board, a scenario poised to support USD/JPY. For a complete overview of the U.S. dollar’s technical and fundamental outlook, request your complimentary Q1 trading forecast now! USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS After the sell-off earlier in the week, USD/JPY has managed to bounce off support at 147.40, which corresponds to the 100-day simple moving average. If gains accelerate in the coming trading sessions, resistance appears at 148.80/149.00. On further strength, all eyes will be at the psychological 150.00 level. In the event of a bearish reversal, the first key floor to watch emerges at 147.40, as mentioned above. While the bears may have a hard time driving prices below this threshold decisively, a successful breakdown could usher in a pullback towards 146.00, followed by 145.50. USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-jpy-in-consolidation-stage-but-fed-decision-may-spark-big-directional-move-20240126.html

2024-01-26 14:06

PCE Prints Roughly as Expected US core PCE data 2.9% vs 3% expected, PCE Price Index in line with estimate at 2.6% Immediate market reaction contained ahead of blockbuster week ahead (FOMC, NFP, mega-cap earnings) US core PCE showed good progress towards the Fed reaching its desired level of inflation after printing its lowest since figure since Q1 2021. The Fed’s 2% target however, is attached to the PCE Price Index which revealed the difficulty in forcing the overall level of prices lower from here. The 2.6% figure was in line with expectations and happens to be the exact same reading last month – revealing that remaining undesirable price pressures are proving difficult to shake. Overall, inflation is still heading in the right direction and with the help of lower base effects, inflation is expected to continue to ease further. In the lead up to the PCE data there has been a certain robustness to inflation data in December, not only in the US via the CPI figures but also in Europe and the UK where price pressures failed to drop with the same momentum as previously witnessed and even saw upward surprises on some measures like headline CPI in the US, for example (3.4% vs 3.1 prior). However, the hotter prices signaled by the US December print is largely being viewed as containing the last of the unfavourable base effects. There is an expectation that disinflation will kick into gear again now that those base effects are mostly behind us now. Immediate Market Reaction The market response was rather contained across the board, with the dollar initially rising ever so slightly higher before pulling back within the intra-day range. Gold witnessed a promising lift immediately after the release, buoyed slightly by the lack of worrying price pressures and a slight move lower in USD. S&P 500 futures moved higher ahead of the US market open where anticipation builds ahead of major equity releases next week. Multi-Asset Snapshot (DXY, Gold, S&P 500 Futures) Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-breaking-news-pce-reveals-steady-progress-towards-fed-s-2-target-20240126.html

2024-01-26 08:43

EUR/USD Forecast - Prices, Charts, and Analysis Markets now pushing for an April ECB rate cut. EUR/USD now trades at a multi-week low. Learn how to trade EUR/USD with our complimentary guide: The Euro weakened after Thursday’s ECB press conference despite President Lagarde giving little away. The central bank left all policy levers untouched yesterday, repeated that any change in monetary policy is data dependent, and gave no hint of any timetable for future action. The markets however are now the ECB to cut rates earlier, and by more, with weak Euro Area growth and falling inflation the drivers behind the move. Both before and straight after the central bank meeting, the market was forecasting 125 basis points of cuts in the Euro Area this year with the first move seen at the end of H1. The market is now looking for more than 142 basis points of cuts with a 76% probability of the first cut being announced in April. ECB Implied Rates and Basis Points The latest bout of Euro weakness has seen EUR/USD slip to a fresh multi-week low and continue a short-term series of lower highs and lower lows. The 200-day simple moving average is also being tested a close and open below this indicator will likely see EUR/USD slip below 1.0800 and head towards a cluster of prior lows on either side of 1.0750. Later today see the release of the latest US Core PCE data. This is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation and any deviation from expectations will steer the US dollar, and EUR/USD, going into the weekend. EUR/USD Daily Chart Charts Using TradingView IG retail trader data show 58.93% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.43 to 1.The number of traders net long is 22.58% higher than yesterday and 17.36% higher than last week, while the number of traders net short is 15.04% lower than yesterday and 15.65% lower than last week. What is your view on the EURO – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/euro-eur-usd-under-pressure-as-markets-push-the-ecb-to-start-cutting-rates-earlier-20240126.html

2024-01-25 22:30

Most Read: Gold Price Forecast - Core PCE Data to Guide Markets Ahead of Fed Decision The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release on Friday core personal consumption expenditures data, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. The strength or weakness of the report relative to Wall Street’s consensus estimates is likely to shape the U.S. dollar’s near-term trajectory and possibly influence the FOMC’s guidance at its January meeting next week. In terms of estimates, core PCE is forecast to have risen 0.2% in December, bringing the annual rate down to 3.0% from 3.2% in November – a step in the right direction for policymakers, who have embarked on a historic streak of interest rate hikes to restore price stability in the post-pandemic period. For the U.S. dollar to continue its recent recovery, PCE numbers need to show that progress on disinflation is stalling. In this scenario, the Fed may be hesitant to cut borrowing costs substantially and may even delay the start of the easing cycle by several months. In the event of a subdued core PCE reading below 3.0%, the greenback could take a sharp turn to the downside. Weak inflation numbers could help validate the market pricing of deep interest rate cuts, pushing Treasury yields lower – an outcome poised to reduce the attractiveness of the U.S. currency. EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD fell on Thursday, slipping below its 200-day simple moving average near 1.0840. If prices fail to reverse higher and close below this level for the week, we could see a pullback towards 1.0770 over the next few trading sessions. On further weakness, all eyes will be on trendline support near 1.0710. In the event of a market turnaround and push above the 200-day SMA, initial resistance appears at 1.0880, followed by 1.0920/1.0935. The bullish camp might encounter challenges in driving prices beyond this technical barrier, yet a successful breakout could pave the way for a move towards 1.1020. EUR/USD TECHNICAL CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView GBP/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD retreated on Thursday after failing to clear the upper limit of a symmetrical triangle, a continuation pattern that has been developing since the middle of last month. For context, this technical setup is validated once prices move outside the boundaries of the triangle, with the confirmation signal carrying greater strength if the breakout occurs in the direction of the prevailing trend. In the case of GBP/USD, traders should watch two areas in the coming days and weeks: resistance at 1.2750/1.2770 and support at 1.2620/1.2600. A breach of resistance could pave the way for a rally towards 1.2830 and, potentially, 1.3000. Conversely, a move below support could expose the 200-day simple moving average and, in the most extreme case, lead to a pullback towards 1.2455. GBP/USD TECHNICAL CHART GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView Eager to gain insights into gold's outlook? Get the answers you are looking for in our complimentary quarterly trading guide. Request a copy now! GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Following a decline to multi-week lows last week, gold has found stability in recent days amid lower volatility, with prices confined between trendline resistance at $2,030 and horizontal support at $2,005. Breaking through these technical thresholds is essential for meaningful directional moves; otherwise, consolidation becomes the most probable scenario. Evaluating possible outcomes, a topside breakout could propel XAU/USD towards $2,065. On further gains, we could witness a rally towards $2,080. On the flip side, if a bearish breakdown occurs, support emerges at $1,990 and $1,975 thereafter. Continued losses hereon out could bring the 200-day simple moving average into focus. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-forecast-core-pce-to-set-tone-setups-eur-usd-gbp-usd-gold-prices-20240125.html