2024-01-10 09:01

GBP/USD, EUR/USD Prices, Analysis, and Charts The US dollar is little changed, and so to are US rate expectations. US CPI may provide the catalyst for the next move. The US dollar is little changed in opening trade Wednesday, leaving a range of USD pairs in limbo. The US dollar index is seen consolidating its recent move higher, and with no guidance from the rates market, this is likely to remain the case until the latest US inflation report is released on Thursday at 13:30 UK. Financial markets are still pricing in a total of 150 basis points of US interest rate cuts this year, with the first 25 basis point move forecast at the March 20th FOMC meeting. CME Fed Watch Tool The US dollar index chart shows the greenback in a short-term consolidation phase and is constrained by last Friday’s jobs report candle. The daily chart does show a conflicting set of moving averages with the 20-day sma currently supporting the dollar index, while the 50-/200-day sma is seen setting up a negative ‘death cross’ in the coming days. The dollar index is also sitting on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the mid-July to early-October move, while the CCI indicator is pointing higher but remains in neutral territory. Death Cross: What is it and How to Identify it When Trading? US Dollar Index Daily Chart Learn how to trade the top three Forex pairs GBP/USD is keeping hold of its recent gains and remains within touching distance of making a fresh multi-month high (1.2828). The 20-day sma is trying to act as support, while the 50-/200-day moving averages made a bullish 'golden cross' late last week. The CCI indicator is neutral. Initial support is seen at 1.2667 ahead of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2630. A break above 1.2828 would leave 1.3000 as the next target. The Golden Cross GBP/USD Daily Chart IG retail trader data shows 50.30% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.01 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 16.90% higher than yesterday and 11.84% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 12.70% lower than yesterday and 20.19% higher than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. See how daily and weekly sentiment changes can affect GBP/USD price action The EUR/USD chart is mixed with the current spot price stuck between the 20- and the 50-/200-day moving averages. As with GBP/USD a 'golden cross' was made last week, providing support for the pair, while the CCI indicator is neutral. Initial support is seen around 1.0900. EUR/USD Daily Chart All Charts using TradingView What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-dollar-dxy-latest-eur-usd-and-gbp-usd-on-hold-ahead-of-us-cpi-20240110.html

2024-01-09 23:30

USD/JPY & GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK Gold prices and the Japanese yen have performed poorly in recent days after a strong run in the last few weeks of 2023 Near-term direction for both assets will likely depend on U.S. inflation data due for release on Thursday This article examines the technical outlook for XAU/USD and USD/JPY, analyzing critical levels to monitor in the coming trading sessions Most Read: EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY Veer Off Bullish Path after Hitting Resistance. What Now? Gold prices and the Japanese yen had a strong run in late 2023 but have stumbled at the onset of the new year, with traders increasingly reluctant to take additional bullish positions in both assets on concerns that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive easing discounted for the next 12 months will not come to fruition. While the U.S. central bank pivoted to a more cautious stance at its December meeting and signaled that it would lower borrowing costs in 2024, the market may have gotten ahead of itself by pricing in too many cuts for an economy that continues to display strength and is experiencing above-target inflation. Should dovish bets on the FOMC’s trajectory start the unwind, U.S. Treasury yields could reaccelerate higher, boosting the U.S. dollar in the process. This scenario could weigh on precious metals and put significant downward pressure on the yen, which lacks support from the Bank of Japan. Though core inflation is forecast to have cooled last month, the headline gauge is seen rebounding, ticking up to 3.2% from 3.1% previously, an unwelcomed development for policymakers that is bound to have a negative impact on public opinion and sentiment. Want to know more about the U.S. dollar's possible trajectory? Find all the insights in our Q1 trading forecast. Request your free copy now! EXPECTATIONS FOR US INFLATION DATA For gold prices and the yen (against the USD) to regain bullish momentum in the near term, the latest U.S. CPI figures need to present compelling evidence of further strides toward price stability. Absent this progress, the Fed could delay the launch of its easing cycle. In the event of an inflation report surprising on the upside, interest rate expectations are likely to reprice higher rapidly, sending bond yields on a tear. In this scenario, gold and the yen may undergo a more significant downward adjustment in the coming days and weeks (weaker yen means higher USD/JPY). GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold was muted on Tuesday after slipping below a key support region stretching from $2,050 to $2,045 last week. Sustained trading beneath this zone might reinforce bearish pressure, paving the way for a drop toward the 50-day simple moving average near $2,010. On further weakness, the focus shifts to $1,990. On the other hand, if buyers return and spark an upside reversal, resistance appears at $2,045-$2,050. Taking out this technical barrier could be challenging, but a breakout could set the stage for a rally toward $2,085, the late December peak. Continued strength could propel XAU/USD towards its record. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY rallied last week, but its climb lost force when prices couldn't break through resistance at 146.00. For upward impetus to reemerge, we need to see a clean and decisive push above 144.75 and subsequently 146.00. This scenario could give way to a rally towards the 147.00 handle. On the flip side, if downward pressure gathers impetus, triggering new losses for USD/JPY, initial support is located around the 200-day simple moving average, now at 143.40. Bulls must defend this floor at all costs; failure to do so could lead to a pullback towards last month’s lows. USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-gold-price-and-usd-jpy-forecast-us-inflation-outcome-to-drive-market-direction-20240109.html

2024-01-09 18:00

For a comprehensive analysis of the euro’s medium-term prospects, request a copy of our Q1 forecast! EUR/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/JPY regained lost ground last week after bouncing off trendline support and the 200-day simple moving average, but its recovery stalled when prices failed to clear a major ceiling around the 158.75 mark, a rejection that triggered a modest pullback in recent sessions. While the longer-term outlook for the pair remains constructive, prolonged trading below 158.75 could signal an exhaustion of upside momentum, a condition that could usher in a move towards 156.75. Continued weakness might prompt a revisit of the 155.40 region. In the event of a bullish reversal, overhead resistance looms at 158.75, as noted above. For bullish impetus to resurface, this technical zone must be taken out decisively, with this scenario poised to trigger a rally towards the 160.00 handle. On further strength, the focus turns to 161.25. EUR/JPY TECHNICAL CHART EUR/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView GBP/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/JPY staged a strong rally and climbed nearly 2.5% last week, but bullish momentum has started to wane over the past few days after an unsuccessful attempt at overtaking cluster resistance around the psychological 184.00 level, as shown in the daily chart below. It is still uncertain whether the 184.00 ceiling can contain bullish progress for much longer, but if it does, sellers are likely to slowly reemerge, paving the way for a retracement towards the 181.00 handle. Below this floor, all eyes will be on the 200-day simple moving average near 180.00. Conversely, if the bulls retake decisive control of the market and manage to propel prices past the 184.00 handle, the next critical resistance to watch is positioned around 186.75. Successfully piloting above this barrier could open the door to a retest of the 2023 highs. GBP/JPY TECHNICAL CHART GBP/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-eur-jpy-and-gbp-jpy-veer-off-bullish-path-after-hitting-resistance-what-now-20240109.html

2024-01-09 15:44

EUR/USD Analysis Sentiment data vs hard data: a tough time ahead for Europe EUR/USD hints at ST decline within broader LT uptrend, US CPI next EUR/USD responding to moves in US equities, strong correlation exhibited The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Sentiment Data vs Hard Data: A Tough Time Ahead for Europe Yesterday’s sentiment data broadly showed improvement, in line with what had been witnessed towards the latter stages of 2023. In addition, inflation expectations and general perceptions of future price pressures edged higher. These may seem like encouraging data points but when viewed alongside deteriorating hard data, particularly manufacturing data, the threat of stagflation cannot be entirely dismissed. German, and the broader EU manufacturing PMI figures, present a sector that is contracting. With little to no improvement in China despite stimulus efforts by the Chinese government, the external environment is shaping up to be a frosty one for Europe despite sentiment data picking up. Earlier today the European unemployment rate dropped from 6.5% to 6.4%, as the labour market maintains its resilience despite the industrial contraction. EUR/USD Hints at ST Decline Within Broader LT Uptrend, US CPI Next The broader EUR/USD uptrend remains constructive (series of higher highs and higher lows) but more recent price action and the formation of what appears to be a bearish flag, threatens to extend the bearish move. Price action has moved lower after producing the recent swing high at 1.1140 in the final trading sessions of 2023 and looks to Thursday’s catalyst to provide direction. US CPI is due on Thursday and is likely to elevate EUR/USD volatility as onlookers assess whether there has been continued progress on the inflation front. The bear flag has been held up at the zone of interest (yellow rectangle) which highlights wo Fibonacci levels: one relating to the major 2021 to 2022 decline (50% Fib) and the other, the 2023 decline (61.8% Fib). Any upside surprise in the CPI print could entertain a short-term bearish continuation. Support at 1.0831 and resistance at 1.0960 followed by 1.1017. EUR/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow The chart below conveys that EUR/USD price action has been largely driven by moves in the US equity market. With very little to separate interest rate expectations between the two currencies, general market sentiment and potential geopolitical developments could have a greater influence on future price action. EUR/USD Reveling a Linear Relationship to Stocks (Risk on/Risk off) Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-sentiment-and-hard-data-continue-diverge-20240109.html

2024-01-09 13:30

British Pound (GBP/USD)Analysis and Charts The first UK rate cut is likely at the end of Q2. US CPI and monthly UK GDP data near. Most Read: EUR/GBP – Respecting Multi-Month Boundaries The first UK interest rate cut forecast has been pushed back in recent days with the May 9th meeting now seen as the first opportunity for the Bank of England (BoE) to begin easing monetary policy. Financial markets are currently pricing in a total of 116 basis points of cuts this year, compared to the five quarter-point reductions forecast at the end of last year when rate cut euphoria was at its peak. This trimming of expectations has helped to underpin the British Pound against the US dollar and the Euro. January 11th January 12th The daily GBP/USD chart shows GBP/USD back above 1.2700 but struggling to hold yesterday’s gains. The 20-day simple moving average may provide short-term support, currently at 1.2698, before 1.2667 and a cluster of prior lows around 1.2615 come into focus. A break above the 1.2770-1.2775 zone would see GBP/USD target the December 28th high of 1.2828. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart using TradingView Retail trader GBP/USD data show 43.05% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.32 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 1.19% lower than yesterday and unchanged from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 16.67% higher than yesterday and 23.76% higher than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to rise. What Does Changing Retail Sentiment Mean for GBP/USD Price Action? What is your view on the British Pound – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/british-pound-update-gbp-usd-supported-by-easing-rate-cut-expectations-20240109.html

2024-01-09 11:30

Article by IG Chief Market Analyst Chris Beauchamp Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Analysis and Charts Dow rallies once more Monday saw the index rebound from the lows of the session, clawing back losses from the final two sessions of last week.A push to new record highs may well now develop, and beyond this the 38,000 level comes into view. This cancels out a short-term negative view and revives the uptrend, albeit at a potentially overextended level. A reversal back below 37,250 would be needed to revive the short-term negative view. Dow Jones Daily Chart Nikkei 225 testing recent highs Further gains on Monday helped to lift the index back to the November highs, and now a test of 34,000 seems to beckon. A move above 34,000 would put the index at its highest levels since 1989 and would mark the end of the extended consolidation period for the index that has been in place since the end of June. Since last week’s low the price has gained over 3%, and it would need a close back below 33,000 to put the sellers back in charge in the short-term. Nikkei 225 Daily Chart Hang Seng back on a downward path This index has resumed its downward move, after the brief rebound in late December. Gains faltered at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), resulting in a textbook reversal that has taken the index back toward the December lows, the lowest level since November 2022. Further declines head towards the November low at 14,640. A revival above the 50-day SMA and 17,170, the highs of last week, would be needed to suggest a short-term rebound has begun. Hang Seng Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/dow-and-nikkei-225-rally-but-hang-seng-slips-lower-again-20240109.html