2024-01-05 13:54

US Dollar Forecast - Prices, Charts, and Analysis NFPs beat forecasts at 216k, unemployment rate unchanged versus November. US dollar rallies, Treasury yields rise, gold slides. The latest US Jobs Report (NFPs) beat market forecasts by a margin, coming in at216k against forecasts of 170k. The November report saw a revision lower from 199k to 173k. Average hourly earnings m/m stayed unchanged at 0.4%, while the annual figure rose to 4.1% against a prior reading of 4% and expectations of 3.9%. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%. The US dollar rallied further post-release with the US dollar index printing a 103.13 high after opening the session at 102.37. US Dollar Index The latest CME FedWatch Tool now shows a near 50/50 chance of a rate cut in March, down from over 73% one week ago. CME FedWatch Tool Gold touched a post-release low of $2,025/oz. after opening the session at $2,048/oz. on the back of changing rate expectations. Gold Price Latest: XAU/USD Seeks Guidance from US NFP Release Gold Daily Price Chart Learn How to Trade Gold with our Complimentary Guide All Charts via TradingView What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-dollar-jumps-gold-slumps-as-us-nfps-come-in-higher-than-forecast-20240105.html

2024-01-05 12:00

Article by IG Senior Market Analyst Axel Rudolph FTSE 100, CAC 40, Nasdaq 100 Prices and Charts FTSE 100 follows Asia lower The FTSE 100 continues to sell-off amid pared back rate cut expectations and despite UK house prices rising for the first time in eight months according to the Halifax. Wednesday’s low at 7,648 is thus back in sight, a fall through which could lead to the mid-October low at 7,584 being reached, together with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,575. Immediate downside pressure should be maintained while Friday’s intraday high at 7,709 isn’t bettered. Above it lies resistance between the September and December highs at 7,747 to 7,769. FTSE 100 Daily Chart CAC 40 drops towards this week’s low The French CAC 40 stock index continues to slide amid general de-risking on pared back rate cut expectations and is about to fall through this week’s low at 7,380 ahead of the publication of today’s Eurozone inflation data. Were 7,380 to give way, the November high and 5 December low at 7,313 to 7,308 would be targeted. Minor resistance above Friday’s 7,438 intraday high sits at Thursday’s 7,456 high. This level would need to be exceeded for the next higher Tuesday low at 7,482 to be back in focus. CAC 40 Daily Chart Nasdaq 100 drops for fifth consecutive day The Nasdaq 100’s decline at the beginning of this year on lowered rate cut expectations and general risk-off sentiment due to heightened tensions in the Middle East led to five consecutive days of losses in the index, not seen since 2022. The November high at 16,167 represents the next downside target and, together with the 22 November high at 16,126, should offer at least interim support. Resistance above Wednesday’s 16,353 low sits between Tuesday’s low and Wednesday’s high at 16,450 to 16,555. Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ftse-100-cac-40-and-nasdaq-100-remain-under-pressure-20240105.html

2024-01-05 09:15

Gold Price (XAU/USD) Prices, Chart, and Analysis Gold remains rangebound as the US Jobs Report nears. An escalation of geopolitical risks will underpin gold’s haven status The monthly US Jobs Report hits the screens today at 13.30 UK with expectations of a further hiring slowdown in nonfarm payrolls. The survey, representing around 486k individual worksites provides detailed data on employment, hours, and earnings. Today’s survey is expected to show 150k new jobs added in December, while the unemployment rate is seen ticking 0.1% higher to 3.8%. The Federal Reserve actively monitors labor market conditions and today’s report will be closely watched as the US central bank mulls the timing of the first interest rate cut this year. The precious metal’s haven status may be buoyed in the coming days and weeks as global geopolitical risks increase. The ongoing Russia/Ukraine war shows no sign of slowing down, tensions between China and Taiwan remain heightened, Israel’s military action in the Gaza Strip continues, while major shipping chokepoints in the Red Sea disrupt global supply chains daily. An increase in any of these conflicts will underpin gold. Gold is quiet at the start of Friday’s session and will remain that way until today’s jobs numbers are released. The CCI indicator reading is neutral, while the current $8/oz. trading range is around one-third of the latest 14-day ATR reading. Support around the $2,032/oz. held an earlier test this week but is unlikely to keep sellers at bay if the NFP numbers show a stronger-than-expected labor market. The next level of support is seen at $2,009/oz. Gold Daily Price Chart Chart via TradingView Retail trader data shows 57.48% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.35 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 2.50% lower than yesterday and 4.17% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 7.82% higher than yesterday and 2.23% lower than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. See how changes in IG Retail Trader data can affect sentiment and price action. What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-price-latest-xau-usd-seeks-guidance-from-us-nfp-release-20240105.html

2024-01-05 01:05

DECEMBER NONFARM PAYROLLS REPORT The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the December employment survey on Friday U.S. employers are forecast to have hired 150,000 workers last month, following a gain of 199,000 jobs in November The strength or weakness of the labor market will likely guide the Fed’s next steps in terms of monetary policy Most Read: US Dollar Wavers Ahead of US Jobs Data, Tech Setups on USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Gold Wall Street will be on high alert on Friday morning when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics unveils December employment data. The upcoming report is likely to attract a lot of attention because of its potential impact on the Fed's monetary policy outlook and the timing of the first rate cut, so it would not be surprising to see increased volatility across most assets heading into the weekend. In terms of estimates, U.S. employers are forecast to have hired 150,000 people last month following a gain of 199,000 jobs in November. Separately, the household survey is expected to show that the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.8 % from 3.7 % previously, indicating a better balance between supply and demand for workers. Focusing on wages, average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% m-o-m, bringing the annual rate to 3.9% from 4.0% in the preceding period, a small but welcome directional improvement for the U.S. central bank. The Federal Reserve places particular emphasis on pay growth for its implications on inflationary patterns, so traders should keep an eye on whether the overall trend continues to move toward a level consistent with CPI convergence toward the 2.0% target on a sustained basis over the medium term. EXPECTATIONS FOR UPCOMING JOBS REPORT POSSIBLE SCENARIOS The Fed embraced a dovish posture at its December gathering, signaling that it would reduce borrowing costs a few times in 2024, but did not completely abandon its tightening bias. In any case, the overarching message was that the institution would rely heavily on data when formulating future decisions. Despite the noncommittal posture, markets ran away with the pivot, pricing in a deep easing cycle for this year. Looking at implied probabilities, the odds of a quarter-point rate cut at the March FOMC meeting stands at 62%, down slightly from last week’s 72%. If hiring surprises to the upside and wages pressures accelerate, the prospects for the easing cycle to begin in the first quarter will diminish further, creating the right conditions for Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar to prolong their recovery. This outcome is likely to weigh on gold prices and the equity market. If you're looking for an in-depth analysis of U.S. equity indices, our first-quarter stock market trading forecast is packed with great fundamental and technical insights. Get it now! FED MEETING PROBABILITIES Source: FedWatch Tool In a scenario of sluggish job growth and further moderation in average hourly earnings, the Fed’s policy outlook is likely to shift in a more dovish direction, boosting bets of a rate cut in March and exerting downward pressure on yields and the greenback. In these circumstances, gold prices and risk assets, such as technology stocks, could rally strongly. Any NFP figure below 100,000 but still positive could have this impact on markets. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-us-jobs-report-preview-what-s-in-store-for-gold-the-us-dollar-and-stocks-20240105.html

2024-01-04 18:00

US DOLLAR FORECAST – USD/JPY, AUD/USD, GOLD The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, slides despite the advance in Treasury yields All eyes will be on the U.S. employment report on Friday This article analyzes the near-term outlook for the U.S. dollar, examining major FX pairs such as USD/JPY and AUD/USD. The piece also scrutinizes the technical profile for XAU/USD Most Read: US Dollar’s Revival Threatened by Fed Minutes; Setups on USD/JPY, EUR/USD, Gold The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, was subdued on Thursday, down about 0.10% to 102.31 despite the upswing in U.S. Treasury yields, with traders reluctant to take large directional positions ahead of key U.S. jobs data. The U.S. Department of Labor will release on Friday its December nonfarm payrolls report. According to surveys, U.S. employers hired 150,000 workers last month, down slightly from the 199,000 increase in November. The unemployment rate, for its part, is seen ticking up to 3.8% from 3.7% previously, indicating less tightness in labor market conditions. With interest rate expectations in a state of flux, it is important to closely examine the details of the upcoming NFP report, keeping in mind that its revelations about the health of the labor market could significantly influence the path of monetary policy over the coming months. Just before the end of 2023, investors were confident that the Fed would deliver its first rate cut in March, but the likelihood of this outcome has retreated sharply recently, as the chart below shows. If U.S. employment figures surprise to the upside, the prospects for the easing cycle commencing in Q1 are likely to diminish further, reinforcing the rebound in yields and the U.S. dollar seen over the past week. FOMC INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES Source: FedWatch Tool The opposite is also true. If NFP falls below Wall Street estimates, interest rate expectations may shift in a more dovish direction, sending yields and the greenback lower. For this scenario to play out, however, the magnitude of the miss in job growth has to be meaningful. A weak employment report would validate wagers on deep rate cuts, boosting the probability of the first rate cut arriving as soon as March. Access a well-rounded view of the Japanese yen's fundamental and technical outlook by securing your complimentary copy of the most recent trading forecast USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY accelerated higher on Thursday after breaking above its 200-day simple moving average in the previous session, pushing towards overhead resistance near 144.80. If buyers manage to drive the exchange rate above this technical barrier in the coming days, we could see a move toward the 146.00 handle in the near term. On further strength, the focus shifts to 147.20. On the flip side, if sellers return and trigger a rejection of current levels, the 200-day simple moving average near 143.20 will be the first line of defense against a bearish assault. The pair is likely to establish a base in this area before bouncing, but a decisive break could put the pair on track for its December lows, followed by trendline support at 140.00. USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView AUD/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD extended its decline on Thursday, falling towards an important support region around the psychological 0.6700 mark. Bulls must defend this technical floor at all costs; failure to do so could spark a pullback towards 0.6640, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the October/December rally. On further weakness, attention turns to trendline support at 0.6600. Conversely, if the pair rebounds from its current position, the first resistance worth watching appears at 0.6820. Buyers will have a difficult time overcoming this obstacle, but further gains could be in store on a bullish breakout, with the next area of interest at 0.6870. Gazing higher, all eyes will be on the 0.7000 handle. AUD/USD TECHNICAL CHART AUD/USD Chart Prepared Using TradingView GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices (XAU/USD) were virtually flat on Thursday after breaching an important support region between $2,050 and $2,045 in the previous session. Prolonged trading beneath this range could empower sellers to drive prices towards the 50-day simple moving average situated around $2,010. Continued weakness would shift the spotlight to $1,990, followed by $1,975. On the contrary, if the selling pressure eases and buyers regain dominance, the first hurdle lies within the $2,045-$2,050 band. While reclaiming this area might pose a challenge for the bulls, a breakout could open the door for a rally toward the late December peak near $2,085. On further strength, the record high of around $2,150 could be within arm’s reach. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-wavers-ahead-of-us-jobs-data-tech-setups-on-usd-jpy-aud-usd-gold-20240104.html

2024-01-04 14:27

EUR/USD Forecast - Prices, Charts, and Analysis German inflation rose in December. EUR/USD picks up a small bid but US NFPs loom. Provisional German inflation rose in December, in line with market forecasts, as last year’s subsidies rolled off the annual figures. Energy inflation also jumped to 4.1% in December after a negative 4.5% in November Source Destatis EUR/USD remains in an upward channel despite the recent sell-off. The move lower in EUR/USD has been driven by a pick-up in the US dollar as the market reassesses the punchy US rate cut expectations of late last year. The US 10-year benchmark now yields 4.00% after touching a sub3.80% multi-month low in late December, while the rate-sensitive UST 2-year is now offered at 4.385% compared to December’s 4.22% nadir. There is a cluster of recent lows around 1.0900 on the daily EUR/USD chart that should provide initial support for the pair, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0865. initial resistance at 1.1000. All eyes are now on tomorrow’s US Jobs Report. EUR/USD Daily Chart Charts Using TradingView IG retail trader data shows 51.76% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.07 to 1.The number of traders net long is 6.87% higher than yesterday and 62.30% higher than last week, while the number of traders net short is 6.09% lower than yesterday and 30.11% lower than last week. What is your view on the EURO – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/euro-eur-latest-eur-usd-picks-up-a-small-bid-after-german-inflation-data-20240104.html