2024-01-04 12:30

Article by IG Chief Market Analyst Chris Beauchamp FTSE 100, DAX 40, Dow Jones: Analysis and Charts FTSE 100 revives off two-week low Wednesday saw the index drop briefly to a two-week low around 7650, but the price then rallied off the low. Some initial gains this morning have put the price back above 7700, which may then provide a foundation for another challenge of the 7750 highs seen at the end of 2023. The uptrend from the October low is firmly intact, and it would need a move back below 7550 to suggest that the rally had run its course. Even further short-term weakness towards 7600 would still leave the move higher in place for the time being. FTSE 100 Daily Chart Dax’s gentle pullback goes on The index has continued to track lower since its December record high, but the losses have only put a modest dent in the gains made since the end of October.For the moment, buyers are defending the previous record high at 16,532, avoiding a close below this level and maintaining a medium-term bullish view. A close below 16,532 might open the way towards the June highs, and then on towards the 50-day SMA. A close back above 16,800 restores a short-term bullish view and puts the price back on course to target the record highs of mid-December around 17,000. DAX 40 Daily Chart Dow still close to record high The Dow remains less than 1% off its record high, holding on to almost all of its gains made since the end of October. In the near term, 36,954 and then 36,569 could be short-term areas of support, but for the moment a deeper correction has yet to materialise. A close back above 37,800 puts the index on course for new record highs and a push towards 38,000. Dow Jones Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ftse-100-dax-40-and-dow-jones-make-gains-in-early-trading-20240104.html

2024-01-04 09:25

British Pound Latest: GBP/USD Charts and Analysis Sterling testing 1.2700 against the US dollar. EUR/GBP remains range-bound. Most Read: EUR/GBP – Respecting Multi-Month Boundaries Sterling has found a short-term level of support against the greenback between 1.2610 and 1.2628 (38.6% Fibonacci retracement) and is using this support zone to press higher and re-test 1.2700. Cable has been under pressure of late from a strong US dollar but with the greenback flat on the session so far, 1.2700 may not hold for long. The British Pound is also pushing ahead against the Euro with EUR/GBP nearly one point lower from the recent 0.8715 high. EUR/GBP has been a multi-month range trade (See story above) and this looks set to continue in the weeks ahead. Today sees the latest ADP employment report released at 13:15 UK with analysts forecasting little change from the November 103k release. While ADP is important, Friday’s US Jobs Report (NFP) will set the market tone for the near term. The market is forecasting 150k new jobs in December, down from a prior month’s 199k and any deviation from forecast, or revision of last month’s data should be noted. The daily GBP/USD chart looks mixed to mildly positive with the CCI indicator in neutral territory. Support between 1.2610 and 1.2628 should prove robust ahead of US NFPs and any US dollar weakness could see cable test 1.2742. A confirmed break here would leave the recent multi-month high of 1.2828 vulnerable. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart using TradingView Retail trader GBP/USD data show 52.43% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.10 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 10.48% lower than yesterday and 29.73% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 12.07% higher than yesterday and 17.09% lower than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. What Does Changing Retail Sentiment Mean for GBP/USD Price Action? What is your view on the British Pound – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/british-pound-latest-gbp-usd-testing-1-2700-ahead-of-us-nfps-20240104.html

2024-01-03 22:00

USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GOLD FORECAST The U.S. dollar gains, but finishes the day off the session high after the Fed minutes trigger a pullback in yields All eyes will be on the U.S. jobs report later this week This article focuses on the near-term outlook for the U.S. dollar, analyzing major pairs such as EUR/USD and USD/JPY. The piece also examines the technical bias for gold prices. Most Read: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Tanks as Traders Eye Reversal, US Jobs Data Next The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, extended its rebound on Wednesday, but ended the day well off the session high after the Fed minutes triggered a pullback in yields. For context, the account of the last FOMC meeting revealed that interest rates could stay high for longer, but also that policymakers see inflation risks moving toward greater balance, the first step before launching an easing cycle. With the Fed’s policy outlook a state of flux, it is important to keep a close eye on macro data, considering that incoming information on the economy will be the main variable guiding the U.S. central bank's next moves and the timing of the first rate cut. That said, the next important report worth following will be the December nonfarm payrolls survey (NFP), which will be released on Friday morning. In terms of consensus estimates, U.S. employers are forecast to have added 150,000 jobs last month after hiring 199,000 people in November. The unemployment rate, for its part, is seen ticking up to 3.8% from 3.7% previously, indicating a better balance between supply and demand for workers – a situation that should help alleviate future wage pressures. Wondering about the U.S. dollar's trajectory? Dive into our Q1 trading forecast for comprehensive insights. Don't miss out—get your copy today! For the U.S. dollar to continue its recovery in the coming weeks, labor market figures must show that hiring continues to be strong and dynamic. This scenario would drive yields higher by signaling that the economy remains resilient and able to forge ahead without the immediate need for central bank support. That said, any NFP figure above 200,000 should be bullish for the greenback. On the flip side, if job growth underwhelms and misses projections by a wide margin (e.g., anything below 100K), we should expect the opposite reaction: a weaker U.S. dollar. This result would validate bets on deep rate cuts by confirming that growth is downshifting and that the Fed needs to intervene in time to prevent a hard landing. UPCOMING US JOBS REPORT USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY rallied and pushed past its 200-day simple moving average on Wednesday, though the advance lost some momentum in late afternoon trading. In any case, if the bullish breakout is sustained, bulls could regain commanding control of the market, setting the stage for a possible rally towards 144.80. On further strength, we can’t rule out a move towards the 146.00 handle. Conversely, if sellers reemerge and drive USD/JPY below its 200-day SMA, sentiment around the U.S. dollar could sour, setting the right conditions for a pullback towards 140.95. The pair is likely to establish a base in this area before bouncing, but a decisive breakdown could send the exchange rate staggering toward trendline support at 140.00. USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD climbed to multi-month highs in late December, but failed to maintain its advance, with the pair taking a turn to the downside after failing to clear channel resistance near 1.1140. Following this bearish rejection, prices have started to trend lower, slipping below support at 1.0935 on Wednesday. If such a move is sustained, EUR/USD may head towards channel support at 1.0840 in short order. On the other hand, if buyers stage a turnaround and spark a bullish reversal, initial resistance is visible at 1.0935, followed by 1.1020. On further strength, the bulls may be emboldened to mount an attack on 1.1075/1.1095. Sellers would need to defend this ceiling at all costs– failure to do so could prompt an upswing toward December's high at 1.1140 (also channel resistance). EUR/USD TECHNICAL CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView Want to know how to trade precious metals? Get the "How to Trade Gold" guide for expert insights and strategies! GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold experienced a notable downturn on Wednesday, slipping below crucial technical support between $2,050 and $2,045. Should XAU/USD linger beneath this range for long, sellers might find momentum to steer prices toward the 50-day simple moving average near $2,010. On further weakness, all eyes will be squarely set on $1,990, followed by $1,975. On the flip side, if selling pressure abates and buyers regain control of the wheel, initial resistance is located at $2,045-$2,050. Though taking out this technical barrier might prove difficult for the bulls, it will not be impossible, with a breakout likely exposing December’s high. Continued upward impetus might then draw attention to the all-time high near $2,150. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-s-revival-threatened-by-fed-minutes-setups-on-usd-jpy-eur-usd-gold-20240103.html

2024-01-03 17:30

GOLD PRICE (XAU/USD) OUTLOOK Gold deepens its retracement as U.S. yields and the U.S. dollar push higher The U.S. jobs report will steal the limelight later this week This article examines key XAU/USD’s levels to watch in the coming days Most Read: Gold Prices Slip as US Dollar, Yields Blast Higher; Nasdaq 100 Slumps Gold prices (XAU/USD) sank on Wednesday, weighed down by rising Treasury rates and the U.S. dollar. For context, bond yields have pushed sharply higher over the past few sessions, with the 10-year note coming within striking distance from recapturing the psychological 4.0% level after trading below 3.80% last month. The following chart shows recent market dynamics. US Treasury Yields, DXY and Gold Performance Source: TradingView Taking into account today’s moves, bullion has retreated more than 2.7% from its late December high, as investors have started to embrace a more cautious position, speculating that overbought conditions and euphoric sentiment post the Fed pivot could pave the way for a reversal in early 2024. While gold retains a constructive profile, the upward trajectory won’t be linear, leaving room for minor corrections within the broader uptrend. In any case, we’ll have more clarity on its outlook later in the week when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the latest employment report. Traders should closely watch the nonfarm payrolls survey for clues about the health of the labor market. That said, if hiring remains robust, interest rate expectations may drift in a more hawkish direction, reinforcing the recovery in yields and the greenback. This would be a bearish outcome for gold. On the flip side, if job growth disappoints market forecasts by a wide margin, monetary easing bets for 2024 will be largely validated. This scenario would exert downward pressure on yields and the U.S. currency, creating favorable conditions for the yellow metal to resume its upward journey. The image below shows what analysts anticipate for the upcoming NFP report. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold suffered a major setback on Wednesday after breaking below technical support in the $2,050-$2,045 band. If bullion remains below this threshold for an extended period, sellers might gather impetus to drive prices toward the 50-day simple moving average near $2,010. Continued weakness could shift the focus to $1,990, followed by $1,975. In case sentiment shifts in favor of buyers and XAU/USD restarts its climb, overhead resistance appears at $2,045-$2,050. Although overcoming this obstacle might prove challenging for the bulls, a successful breach could pave the way for a retest of the late December peak. Further strength could redirect attention to the all-time high near $2,150. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-tanks-as-traders-eye-reversal-us-jobs-data-next-20240103.html

2024-01-03 12:59

Bitcoin (BTC) Prices, Charts, and Analysis: Bitcoin slumps as report suggests SEC will reject all ETF proposals in January. Leveraged long positions wiped out. A bearish report by crypto financial services company Martixport is said to be behind the sharp sell-off in Bitcoin. The report suggested that despite all the recent meetings between ETF applicants and SEC staff, and subsequent amendments, all applications will fall short of SEC requirements and will be denied in January. The report added that these requirements may be fulfilled by Q2 2024. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 15 Minute Price Chart Bitcoin has been pushing higher over the past months on spot ETF fever with BTC/USD rallying from around $25k in mid-September. Volume and leverage have also been picking up recently and the speed of today’s sell-off suggests that leveraged long positions are being flushed out of the market. It is worth noting that today’s current quote ($42.4k) is back at levels last seen two days ago. If this market rumor is confirmed by the SEC, Bitcoin may well fall further with $38k as the next stopping point. If unconfirmed BTC will likely press back towards the $44k area and wait for further announcements. Bitcoin Daily Price Charts via TradingView What is your view on Bitcoin – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/bitcoin-btc-slumps-on-etf-rejection-rumor-all-eyes-on-the-sec-20240103.html

2024-01-03 12:00

Article by IG Senior Market Analyst Axel Rudolph CAC 40, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Charts and Analysis CAC 40 tries to shrug off Tuesday’s losses The French CAC 40 stock index has been trading in a sideways trading range below its mid-December record high at 7,653 and on Tuesday dipped to a near one-month low at 7,482 amid rising yields as excessive rate cut expectations were pared back. Today the index is trying to regain some lost ground but is encountering resistance around the 13 December 7,520 low. Further minor resistance is seen at last Thursday’s 7,531 low and Friday’s 7,570 high. Were Tuesday’s 7,482 low to be slipped through, the September peak at 7,436 may be revisited over the coming days. CAC 40 Daily Chart Nasdaq 100 drops for third straight day The Nasdaq 100’s stiff rally off its late October low has finally run out of steam after nine consecutive weeks of gains with it hitting a record high at 16,978, marginally below the minor psychological 17,000 mark, before falling for three straight days, the most since October. Sector rotation out of technology into telecoms, energy, banks, and automobiles pushed the Nasdaq 100 lower as well as pared back rate cut expectations and rallying US Treasury yields. The fall through the October-to-January uptrend line may lead to a slide towards the November high at 16,167 being seen. As long as Tuesday’s three-week low at 16,450 holds, though, the mid-December high at 16,667 may be revisited as well as the breached uptrend line, now because of inverse polarity a resistance line, at 16,746. Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart Russell 2000 slips back to July peak The Russell 2000 has seen three straight days of losses from its 2,078 December peak, a level last traded in April 2022, amid pared back rate cut expectations and heightened tensions in the Middle East which provoked risk-off sentiment. The July peak at 2,007 to the psychological 2,000 mark should offer support. If not, the 20 July high at 1,995 might do so. Resistance above the mid-December high at 2,023 sits at Tuesday’s 2,043 high and at the 20 December intraday peak at 2,046. Russell 2000 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/cac-40-nasdaq-100-and-russell-2000-try-to-stabilize-after-tuesday-s-hit-20240103.html