2024-01-03 09:00

GBP/USD, EUR/USD Prices, Analysis and Charts JOLTs, ADP, and NFP reports released this week. How dovish was Fed Chair Powell at the last FOMC meeting? The US dollar is keeping hold of most of Tuesday’s gains as expectations of an aggressive series of US rate cuts are pared back. Going into the end of 2023, CME Fed Fund probabilities at one stage showed markets expecting 175 basis points of rate cuts this year with the first move seen in March. This has now been reduced by a quarter of a point to 150 basis points of cuts. The late-December dovish tone was fuelled by Fed Chair Powell at the last FOMC meeting and today’s release of the minutes of this meeting may show that the market’s interpretation of Chair Powell’s remarks may have been misplaced. Later in today’s session, we have the first of three US jobs reports this week with the November JOLTS job openings release at 15:00 UK. Job openings have fallen steadily over the last two years, and are expected to fall further today, tightening labor market conditions. On Thursday the December ADP report is released at 13:15 UK, while on Friday the latest US NFP report is released at 13:30 UK. Tuesday’s tightening of rate expectations forced US bond yields higher, giving the US dollar a boost. The US dollar index (DXY) popped sharply higher and is now close to negating the recent bearish pennant pattern seen at the end of December last year. The DXY chart remains bearish overall but a short period of consolidation around these levels cannot be discounted. US Dollar Index Daily Chart The recent bout of US dollar strength has put the brakes on cable’s multi-month rally. After touching a five-month high of 1.2828 on December 28th, the pair are now eyeing 1.2600. A clean break below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2628 will see 1.2600 tested before the 200- and 50-day simple moving averages at 1.2532 and 1.2517 respectively come into play. GBP/USD Daily Chart See how daily and weekly sentiment changes can affect GBP/USD price action IG retail trader data shows 57.98% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.38 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 32.60% higher than yesterday and 30.90% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.10% lower than yesterday and 19.98% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. EUR/USD has lost two big figures since the late December high print of 1.1193 but remains in an uptrend for now. The first level of support is seen off the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.08645, followed closely by the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages at 1.0849 and 1.0845. EUR/USD Daily Chart All Charts using TradingView Learn How to Trade EUR/USD with our Complimentary Guide What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-dollar-dxy-latest-jobs-data-fomc-minutes-set-to-drive-eur-usd-and-gbp-usd-20240103.html

2024-01-02 23:05

NASDAQ 100, GOLD PRICE (XAU/USD) FORECAST: Gold prices retreat, dragged lower by U.S. dollar strength and rising yields The Nasdaq 100 also loses ground, sinking to an important support area This article focuses on the technical outlook for gold (XAU/USD) and the Nasdaq 100, analyzing price action dynamics and market sentiment Most Read: US Dollar Comes Alive as Yields Fly, Setups on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY Gold prices (XAU/USD) retreated moderately on Tuesday, succumbing to rising rates and the commanding resurgence of the U.S. dollar, which climbed sharply following a poor performance last month, just as the curtain rose on the first trading session of 2024. The Nasdaq 100 also suffered a setback, plummeting 1.7% to 16,543, posting its biggest daily decline since late October, weighed down by the substantial rally in U.S. Treasury yields. After a strong finish to 2023 for the yellow metal and the technology index, traders adopted a cautious stance at the start of the new year, trimming exposure to both assets for fear of a larger pullback ahead of high-profile events in the coming days. Focusing on key catalysts later this week, Wednesday brings the ISM manufacturing PMI, followed by U.S. employment numbers on Friday. These reports may give Wall Street the opportunity to assess the broader economic outlook and determine if aggressive easing expectations are justified. Outlined below are investor projections for both the ISM and NFP surveys. In the grand scheme of things, subpar economic figures will be supportive of tech stocks and gold prices by affirming expectations for aggressive rate cuts. Conversely, robust data might trigger an opposing response, leading bullion and the Nasdaq 100 lower as traders dial back their bold rate cut forecasts. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold trended lower on Tuesday, slighting for the third straight session after prices failed to clear a key resistance in the $2075-$2,085 region. If the precious metal extends its retracement in the coming days, support appears at $2,050-$2,045. Bulls must defend this floor tooth and nail – failure to do so could send XAU/USD reeling towards $2,010, near the 50-day simple moving average. Conversely, if buyers regain the upper hand and propel prices upward, the first line of defense against a bullish attack emerges at $2075-$2,085. Previous attempts to break through this ceiling have been unsuccessful, so history could repeat itself in a retest, but in the event of a sustained breakout, the all-time high at $2,150 would be in play again. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView If you're looking for an in-depth analysis of U.S. equity indices, our first-quarter stock market outlook is packed with great fundamental and technical insights. Get it now! NASDAQ 100 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The Nasdaq 100 fell sharply on Tuesday, yet it narrowly avoided breaching confluence support positioned near the 16,700 area. To preserve bullish aspirations for a new record, this technical floor must be maintained at all costs; failure to do so might prompt a deeper downward move, with the next area of interest located at 16,150. On the flip side, if market sentiment stabilizes and gives way to a steady rebound in the upcoming trading sessions, overhead resistance looms at 17,165. If history is any guide, the Nasdaq 100 could be rejected lower from this ceiling on a retest, but a breakout could trigger a rally toward 17,500, which would represent a new milestone for the tech index. NASDAQ 100 TECHNICAL CHART Nasdaq 100 Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/xau-usd-gold-prices-slip-as-us-dollar-yields-blast-higher-nasdaq-100-sinks-to-support-20240102.html

2024-01-02 18:20

US DOLLAR FORECAST - EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY The U.S. dollar accelerates higher as U.S. Treasury yields extend rebound following a poor performance in late 2023 Attention will be on the ISM manufacturing survey and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report later in the week This article focuses the outlook for the U.S. dollar, analyzing price action for major pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY ahead of high-impact events later in the week. Most Read Today: Gold Prices Slip as US Dollar, Yields Blast Higher; Nasdaq 100 Sinks to Support Most Read This Weekend: US Dollar Q1 Fundamental Outlook: A Tale of Two Halves – Weak Start, Strong Finish The US dollar, as measured by the DXY index, started the new year on the front foot, rising for the third consecutive session, supported by a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year note up 7 bp to 3.93%. In this context, the DXY index climbed 0.7% to 102.10 in early afternoon trading in New York, posting its biggest daily advance since October, ahead of high-impact events later in the week. Key releases, including the ISM manufacturing survey and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report (NFP), will give an opportunity to assess the economic outlook and ascertain if projections of aggressive interest rate cuts for 2024 hold merit. As a frame of reference, traders currently discount 142 basis points of easing over the next 12 months, as shown in the chart below. 2024 Fed Funds Futures (Implied Rate by Monthly Contracts) Source: TradingView If manufacturing activity accelerates in a meaningful way and employment growth surprises to the upside, investors are likely to pare bets on deep interest-rate cuts, foreseeing that the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to slash borrowing costs substantially in a stable economy for fear of reigniting inflation. This scenario would be bullish for the U.S. dollar. On the flip side, if the data disappoints and shows cracks in the economy, especially in the labor market, it would not be surprising to see the Fed's policy outlook shift in a more dovish direction, an outcome that would put downward pressure on yields and, by extension, the U.S. dollar. Any NFP print below 100,000 is likely to produce this response. The image below shows consensus forecasts for ISM and NFP. Upcoming US Economic Data EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD rallied to multi-month highs in late December, but pivoted lower after failing to clear channel resistance near 1.1140, with the pair sinking towards 1.0935 on Tuesday. The pair is likely to bottom out in this region before initiating the next leg higher, but in the event of a breakdown, a move towards channel support and the 200-day simple moving average near 1.0840 could unfold quickly. Conversely, if the bulls regain decisive control of the market and trigger a turnaround, the first line of defense against future advances is located at 1.1020, followed by 1.1075/1.1095. Sellers need to defend this band at all costs – failure to do so could result in a rally towards channel resistance, presently positioned above 1.1170. EUR/USD TECHNICAL CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView For a complete overview of the British pound’s technical and fundamental outlook in the coming months, make sure to grab your complimentary Q1 trading forecast now! GBP/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD also sold off on the first trading session of 2024, slipping below 1.2675 and pushing towards confluence support around the 1.2600 handle, where several swing lows align with the lower limit of a short-term rising channel. It is crucial that this technical floor holds in the coming days, as a breakdown could spark a decline toward the 200-day simple moving average. In contrast, if selling pressure abates and cable perks up, resistance looms at 1.2675, and 1.2765 thereafter. On further strength, the focus shifts to last month’s peak near 1.2830. Overcoming this hurdle will present a formidable challenge for the bullish camp, but a breakout could pave the way for a potential climb towards the psychological 1.3000 level. GBP/USD TECHNICAL CHART GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY rallied off support on Tuesday but fell short of recapturing its 200-day simple moving average. If the pair stays below this indicator for too long, sellers could reload and make a comeback, setting the stage for a drop below 140.95, but further losses could be in store on a push below this threshold, with the next area of interest at 139.85. On the other hand, if the bulls manage to propel the exchange rate above the 200-day SMA around 143.00, we could see a rally towards 144.80. Surmounting this obstacle may be difficult, but a successful push above it could establish favorable conditions for an upward move toward the 146.00 handle. Sustained strength might embolden the bulls to aim for 147.20. USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-comes-alive-as-yields-fly-setups-on-eur-usd-gbp-usd-usd-jpy-20240102.html

2024-01-02 15:00

Gold (XAU), Oil (USOIL) Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Outlooks and Prices Gold looking to push ahead, higher US Treasury yields weigh for now. Oil breaks recent sell-off on fresh geopolitical concerns. Bitcoin prints a new 21-month high. A stronger US dollar is weighing on gold as we start the year but the overall outlook for the precious metal remains positive. The daily chart shows a series of unbroken higher lows and higher highs since early October, while all three simple moving averages remain in a bullish set-up. There is plenty of recent support back down to around $2,010/oz. while a break above the December 28th high of $2,088.5/oz. opens the way to the spike high of $2,146.8/oz. Gold Daily Price Chart Retail trader data shows 56.57% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.30 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 5.46% higher than yesterday and 6.39% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.38% higher than yesterday and 7.14% higher than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. See how changes in IG Retail Trader data can affect sentiment and price action. Oil is picking up a geopolitical bid after Iran sent a warship to the Red Sea yesterday, stoking tensions further. The Red Sea is the southern entrance to the Suez Canal, a vital shipping lane. According to a Politico article, some 7 to 10 percent of the world’s oil and eight percent of LNG pass through these waters. Oil is pushing higher today, after pushing lower at the end of December. The daily chart looks mixed with a print below $67.74/bbl. needed to keep a series of lower lows intact, while the current spot price ($73/bbl.) is using the 20-dsma as current support. A bearish 50-/200-dsma crossover was made on December 22nd. Initial support off the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $70.36/bbl. before a triple low of around $67/bbl. comes into play. US Oil Daily Chart Bitcoin rallied strongly last year and is continuing to push higher in 2024. Growing expectations of SEC approval for a raft of spot Bitcoin ETF and longer-term traders setting up ahead of the next Bitcoin halving in April have underpinned the rally and pushed Bitcoin to its highest level since April last year. Bitcoin Q1 Fundamental Outlook – Positive Tailwinds The weekly chart shows the next level of resistance just under $48.2k before the December 2021 triple top around $52k comes into play. Bitcoin Weekly Chart All Charts via TradingView What is your view on Gold, Oil, and Bitcoin – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-xau-oil-usoil-bitcoin-btc-technical-outlooks-and-prices-20240102.html

2024-01-02 12:00

Article by IG senior market analyst Axel Rudolph FTSE 100, DAX 40, S&P 500 Analysis and Charts FTSE 100 aims for its September and December highs The FTSE 100 begins the new year on a stronger footing and eyes its September and December highs at 7,747 to 7,769 despite a mixed session in Asia. While Thursday’s low at 7,705 holds, upside pressure should be maintained with the 7,747 to 7,769 region representing upside targets ahead of the 7,800 mark. A slip through 7,705 would likely retest the 7,702 October peak below which the November-to-December uptrend line can be spotted at 7,676. FTSE 100 Daily Chart DAX 40 kicks off the new year on a positive footing The DAX 40 index is targeting its recent highs at 16,809 to 16,812 ahead of final German PMIs. If exceeded, the December record high at 17,003 should be back in focus. Support below Thursday’s 16,686 low lies at the 20 December 15,595 low. Only if this low were to give way, would the July peak at 16,532 be back on the map but would be expected to offer support. DAX 40 Daily Chart S&P 500 is beginning to show negative divergence on the daily RSI The S&P, which has risen for nine consecutive weeks and is the most overbought in over three decades, is showing first signs of potentially topping out marginally below its January 2022 record high at 4,817. With around 50% of S&P 500 stocks trading above the 70% overbought level on their 14-day simple moving averages (SMA) and the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing negative divergence, the risk of a correction lower being seen is currently high. Potential slips through the October-to-January uptrend line and Friday’s low at 4,451, made between the November and mid-December 2021 highs at 4,752 to 4,743, could put the 20 December low at 4,692 back on the plate. Resistance above the 20 December high at 4,778 is seen at last week’s 4,795 peak. S&P 500 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ftse-100-dax-40-and-s-p-500-kick-off-the-new-year-on-a-positive-footing-20240102.html

2024-01-02 09:30

EUR/USD Forecast - Prices, Charts, and Analysis US dollar pushes higher as 2024 trade gets underway. EUR/USD downside should be limited. US Treasury yields are bouncing off their recent multi-month lows giving the US dollar a small bid as 2024 trade starts. The push higher in UST yields however looks unconvincing and is likely a function of year-end position squaring and low volume trade conditions. The US dollar index chart (DXY) remains negative with the mid-December bearish pennant pattern and downward-sloping simple moving averages all adding to the bearish, longer-term view. US Dollar Index Daily Chart with Bearish Pennant Breakout EUR/USD touched a multi-month high of 1.1139 at the end of December before fading lower. For now the 1.1076 to 1.1096 zone will act as resistance and may prove difficult to clear convincingly ahead of the US NFP release. The daily chart remains positive though with a golden cross being formed as the 50-day sma trades through the 200-dsma. EUR/USD Daily Chart Charts Using TradingView IG retail trader data shows 36.30% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.76 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 3.99% higher than yesterday and 0.69% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.53% higher than yesterday and 4.59% lower than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. What is your view on the EURO – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/euro-eur-drifts-lower-against-the-us-dollar-trend-remains-intact-20240102.html