2023-12-27 13:20

GOLD (XAU/USD) PRICE FORECAST: Gold (XAU/USD) Holds the High Ground on Rate Cut Bets and Geopolitical Concerns. Dollar Index (DXY) Struggles as Lack of Data and Low Liquidity Environment Create Unwanted Hurdles. IG Client Sentiment Data Shows that 58% of Traders Remain Long on Gold. To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. MOST READ: USD/JPY Price Forecast: Guarded BoJ Leaves Yen on Offer Gold prices resumed their ascent following the Christmas break as Geopolitical concerns continue to accelerate. The precious metal rose about 0.7% on the day as safe haven demand continues to grow. Supercharge your trading prowess with tips and tricks to trading Gold! LOW VOLUME AND LIQUIDITY MIGHT HAMPER UPSIDE Geopolitical tensions have ratcheted up safe haven appeal from market participants with US data ahead of the Christmas break doing little to offer the US Dollar support. The lack of volume and liquidity this week could be a saving grace for Gold bears as it may limit the upside move. The renewed US Dollar weakness came about following a host of misses but US data in the week before Christmas. This has led to market participants remaining dovish on US rates in 2024 and thus weighed on the US Dollar. Looking ahead and there is obviously a lack of catalysts this week and with muted volume expected the chance of rangebound trade looms large. The surprise following the Christmas break has come in the form of US Equities continuing their rally which is in contrast to the safe haven demand being experienced by Gold. However, this shouldn’t come as a complete surprise as US Equities for a while now have been disconnected from the consensus view by market participants. This was most evident in 2023, where with a host of downside risks, US Equities surprised and continued their advance. US Treasury Yields continue to tick lower as you can see on the chart below. The 2Y and 10Y yields continuing their downward trajectory as rate cut bets ramp up. US2Y and 10Y Daily Chart Source: TradingView, Chart Prepared by Zain Vawda US DATA AHEAD The lack of US data this week is likely to keep the US dollar on the back foot ahead of 2024. The DXY hovers near 5 moth lows with further downside appearing more and more likely. At the moment fears of further strife and escalation in the Middle East as well as general market sentiment are likely to drive prices moving forward. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK GOLD Form a technical perspective, Gold is looking bullish at present, but a lack of liquidity and volume could hamper a break of the $2080/oz resistance level. Given the extended upside rally thus far, i think a daily candle close above the $2074 level, which would provide bulls with further impetus. Any knee-jerk move on geopolitical tension may fade quickly as we saw when Gold printed fresh all-time highs. Geopolitical tensions are likely to remain the key driver for the rest of this week and is the only thing in my opinion that could push price above the $2080/oz area. Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Resistance levels: 2080.00 2100.00 2143.40 Support levels: 2058.00 2050.00 2030.00 Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart – December 27, 2023 Source: TradingView, Chart Prepared by Zain Vawda IG CLIENT SENTIMENT Taking a quick look at the IG Client Sentiment, Retail Traders are Overwhelmingly Long on GOLD with 58% of retail traders holding Long positions. Given the Contrarian View to Crowd Sentiment Adopted Here at DailyFX, is this a sign that Gold may struggle to break above the $2080/oz resistance level? https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-price-forecast-gold-holds-the-high-ground-as-2080-beckons-20231227.html

2023-12-27 10:00

FTSE 100 flirts with September peak The FTSE 100 is seen kicking off the final week of 2023 on a positive note as investors return from a holiday-extended weekend. Following a rise in US and Asian stocks, the FTSE 100 once more flirts with its September peak and tries to reach its current December high at 7,769. Above it lurks the 7,800 zone. Slips should find support around Friday’s 7,716 high and the 7,702 October peak. DAILY FTSE CHART Chart Prepared by Axel Rudolph DAX 40 resumes its advance Having traded in a relatively tight sideways range since mid-December, the DAX 40 is probing the upper end of its recent trading band, helped by positive US and Asian sessions on Tuesday and Wednesday. A rise above the 20 December high at 16,811 would put the 11 December high at 16,827 and the 15 December high at 16,889 on the map, ahead of the 17,000 region. Support below the October-to-December uptrend line at 16,746 sits at Friday’s 16,653 low and, more importantly, at last week’s 16,595 trough. Only if the 16,595 low were to give way, would the July peak at 16,532 be back on the cards but should then offer support. DAILY DAX CHART Chart Prepared by Axel Rudolph https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ftse-100-and-dax-40-resume-ascent-in-line-with-us-and-asian-stock-indices-20231227.html

2023-12-27 06:51

USD/JPY ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS Dismal Japanese housing start numbers and BoJ messaging limiting JPY upside. US 30-year mortgage rates and applications under the spotlight later today. 200-day MA retest in focus but unlikely to happen this year. JAPANESE YEN FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP “We must confirm a sustainable and stable achievement of the price target is foreseen in order to end the negative rate and YCC.” “We must scrutinise wage and price moves under YCC given the strong upward pressure on prices has likely stablised.” “We are not in a situation where we would fall behind the curve in raising rates, even if we decided to wait after seeing wage talk outcomes next Spring.” “One member said that the BoJ should not miss the opportunity to normalise policy to avoid the risk of high prices damaging consumption and achievement of the price target.” “It is important for the BoJ to continue deepening the discussion on issues such as timing of exit from current policy and the appropriate pace of a rate hike thereafter.” Overall, the news was taken in a less favorable light for the Yen and was consequently supplemented by Japanese housing start data that missed forecasts. The lack of new construction taking place has fallen to its lowest level since August and reinforces a struggling Japanese economy. Ultimately, these data points will be crucial for the pivot to a more normalized monetary policy in the face of elevated inflation. The resultant effect from an interest rate cycle perspective has been dovish with money markets reducing the scale of rate hikes in 2024 (refer to table below). BANK OF JAPAN INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES Source: Refinitiv USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG Despite a flat USD, daily USD/JPY price action shows the yen down roughly 0.20% for the day. Bulls attempt to retest the 200-day moving average (blue) as the pair exits the oversold zone of the Relative Strength Index (RSI). I do not expect much in the way of price volatility in this final trading week of 2023 therefore, we are likely to remain in this recent consolidatory phase around the 142.00 psychological handle. Key resistance levels: 148.52 147.37 Channel support 145.00 200-day MA Key support levels: 141.62 140.00 IG CLIENT SENTIMENT: BEARISH IGCS shows retail traders are currently net SHORT on USD/JPY, with 62% of traders currently holding short positions (as of this writing). https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-jpy-price-forecast-guarded-boj-leaves-yen-on-offer-wv-20231227.html

2023-12-27 00:35

USD/JPY, GOLD PRICE FORECAST Gold prices advance, but fail to push above cluster resistance USD/JPY lacks directional conviction, with the pair trading slightly below the 200-day simple moving average This article explores the technical profile for gold and USD/JPY, focusing on important price thresholds that could be relevant heading into the final trading sessions of 2023 Most Read: US Dollar in Risky Waters, Technical Setups on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold Gold prices (XAU/USD) trended higher on Tuesday in thin trading after the Christmas holidays, rising about 0.7% to $2,065, bolstered by the pullback in the U.S. dollar, which inched towards its lowest point since late July. Following Tuesday’s advance, XAU/USD has arrived at the doorsteps of an important resistance region, spanning from $2,070 to $2,075. Previous attempts to break through this ceiling on a sustained basis have been unsuccessful, so history could repeat itself this time. In the event of a bearish rejection from current levels, support appears at $2,050, followed by $2,010. Bulls must defend this floor tooth and nail – failure to do so could rekindle downward momentum, laying the groundwork for a drop toward $1,990. On further weakness, the focus turns to $1,975. On the other hand, if buyers manage to push prices decisively above $2,070/$2075, upward impetus could gather pace, creating the right conditions for the precious metal to start consolidating above $2100. Continued strength could pave the way for a retest of the all-time high at $2,150. Wondering how retail positioning can shape gold prices? Our sentiment guide provides the answers you are looking for—don't miss out, get the guide now! GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY ticked up modestly on Tuesday but was unable to recapture its 200-day simple moving average. If prices remain below this indicator on a sustained basis, selling pressure could resurface and gather impetus, paving the way for an eventual drop toward the December lows at 140.95. While this technical area could offer support during a retracement, a breakdown might steer the pair towards 139.50. On the other hand, if buyers take charge and propel the exchange rate above the 200-day SMA, resistance is located at 144.80. Overcoming this hurdle will prove challenging for the bulls, but a successful breakout could establish favorable conditions for an upward push toward the 146.00 handle. On further strength, all eyes will be on 147.20. USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/xau-usd-gold-prices-defy-key-resistance-area-usd-jpy-stuck-below-200-day-sma-for-now-20231227.html

2023-12-26 18:45

US DOLLAR FORECAST – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GOLD PRICES The U.S. dollar weakens, approaching its lowest level since late July Few market catalysts on sight for the remainder of the week This article examines the technical outlook for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and gold, analyzing important price levels that could act as support or resistance in the last week of 2023. Most Read: US Dollar on Thin Ice, Setups on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD for Final Days of 2023 The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, retreated on Tuesday and flirted with its lowest levels since late July near 101.55 in a trading session characterized by thin liquidity, with many financial centers still closed for the Christmas holidays and ahead of the New Year's festivities. Factoring in recent losses, the DXY index is down about 4.35% in the fourth quarter and about 1.9% in December. This drop is associated with the significant pullback in government bond yields, which have plummeted from the cycle high marked about two months ago. The Fed’s pivot at its December FOMC meeting has reinforced ongoing market trends over the past couple of weeks. For context, the central bank embraced a dovish posture at its last gathering, signaling that it would deliver 75 basis points of easing in 2024, possibly as part of a strategy to prioritize growth over inflation. With U.S. yields displaying a downward bias and a strong risk-on sentiment prevailing in equity markets, the U.S. dollar is likely to extend its decline in the short term. This could potentially lead to increased gains for gold, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD moving into the new year. Focusing on important catalysts later this week, there are no major releases of note – a scenario that could create the right setting for a period of consolidation. Nevertheless, the dearth of impactful events doesn't guarantee subdued volatility or steady market conditions. The reduced liquidity, characteristic of this time of year, can sometimes amplify price swings, as seemingly routine or moderate-sized transactions have the potential to upset the delicate balance between supply and demand. Caution is therefore strongly advised. EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS After its recent climb, EUR/USD has pushed above overhead resistance stretching from 1.1000 to 1.1025. A sustained breakout in weekly closing prices might pave the way for a rapid advancement towards the 1.1100 handle. Further gains could draw attention to 1.1140, which corresponds to the upper boundary of a short-term bullish channel. Conversely, if upside impetus fades and leads to a pullback below 1.1000, initial support rests at 1.0935, followed by 1.0830, near the 200-day simple moving average. The pair is likely to bottom out in this region before resuming its upward trajectory, but a move below this technical area could precipitate a decline toward 1.0770. EUR/USD TECHNICAL CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView GBP/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD saw a modest uptick on Tuesday, but encountered resistance in the 1.2727/1.2769 zone, where a key Fibonacci level aligns with a downtrend line in play since July. To strengthen the bullish trend, overcoming this technical barrier is crucial; with a successful breakout opening the door for a move towards 1.2800, followed by 1.3000. Alternatively, if sellers mount a comeback and trigger a bearish reversal, trendline support near 1.2600 will be the first line of defense against a pullback. This dynamic floor may provide stability in the event of a retreat, but a breakdown could send cable reeling towards its 200-day simple moving average hovering above 1.2500. Further weakness could shift focus towards 1.2455. GBP/USD TECHNICAL CHART GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView Equip yourself with indispensable knowledge to maintain trading consistency. Access the 'How to Trade Gold' guide for invaluable insights and essential tips! GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold extended its advance and consolidated above $2,050 on Tuesday but fell short of breaching a key technical barrier in the $2,070-$2,075 range. If history is a guide, prices could be rejected from this region; however, a decisive breakout could bolster bullish sentiment, potentially ushering in a strong rally toward the all-time high near $2,150. In contrast, If the bears regain control of the market and push XAU/USD lower and beneath $2,050, we could see a retracement towards $2,010. Maintaining this last floor is paramount for the bulls; a failure to do so might rejuvenate downward momentum, possibly leading to a decline towards $1,990. Below this, attention may turn to $1,975. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-in-risky-waters-technical-setups-on-eur-usd-gbp-usd-gold-xau-usd-20231226.html

2023-12-26 00:00

Trading in forex or other financial assets necessitates a steadfast commitment to a carefully devised plan and effective risk management. This year, I learned first-hand that straying from a well-established strategy impulsively can lead to detrimental outcomes. My approach to trading has always been systematic and methodical. Before entering any trade, I meticulously outline my investment thesis, analyze crucial price levels, and pre-define both the assumed risk and profit targets. This disciplined approach has generally served me well, fostering a sense of control and rational decision-making. However, a specific case this year underscored the critical consequences of straying from these guidelines. In the pursuit of larger profits, I found myself succumbing to the allure of greed. Believing that momentum was firmly on my side and that nothing could go awry, I took for granted my unrealized gains, keeping my position open for way too long. Then, in the blink of an eye, prices shifted against me, turning a winning trade into a large loss. By moving the goalposts, I deviated from my meticulously crafted trading plan, forgetting for a moment that markets can be unforgiving and unpredictable. In doing so, I violated the very parameters that had previously guided me to success, leaving me grappling with the aftermath of my own imprudent decisions. The key takeaway from my personal experience is crystal clear: do not improvise or stray from the original strategy at a whim and always prioritize sound analysis over impulsive decisions, especially if you are speculating with short-term options, which was my case. My journey served as a vivid reminder that emotions like greed have the potential to obscure judgment and result in adverse outcomes. Moving forward, I am committed to reinforcing the importance of discipline in my trading approach. I recognize that the allure of reaping greater profits should never compromise the foundation of a well-constructed plan. The cost incurred by deviating from the plan served as a tough yet essential lesson, instilling in me a revitalized commitment to adhere to my processes. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/discipline-is-paramount-in-rapidly-changing-markets-20231226.html