2023-12-21 12:30

Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL) Prices, Charts, and Analysis: Bitcoin - a break above $44.7k brings $48.2k resistance into play. Solana – outperformance continues The multi-week Bitcoin rally remains intact and is pushing the largest cryptocurrency by market cap to levels last seen in April last year. The spot Bitcoin narrative remains the main driver of positive sentiment, while the technical Bitcoin halving event, expected in mid-April, is supporting the push higher. A decision by the SEC on multiple spot Bitcoin ETF applications is expected by early January and a positive decision is currently seen as the most likely outcome. Bitcoin traders are actively watching any SEC announcement at the moment and, it seems, buying Bitcoin ahead of the decision. The technical outlook for BTC/USD is positive with the weekly chart showing a bullish flag formation being formed, while a bullish 50-day/200-day gold-cross is close to being made. The CCI indicator shows BTC/USD as overbought, suggesting a period of consolidation before any move higher. On the weekly chart there is little in the way of resistance ahead of $48.2k. Support is seen at $40k and a fraction under $38k. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Weekly Price Chart – December 21, 2023 Solana (SOL), a popular Layer 1 blockchain, has been on a tear over the past weeks, rallying from just under $20 in late September to a current spot price of $88. This performance has refueled the Solana vs Ethereum debate as to which is the best L1 blockchain. While Ethereum dwarfs Solana by market capitalization ($269 billion vs $37.5 billion), Solana has outperformed Ethereum strongly in the past weeks. The SOL/ETH spread has just broken above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement November 2021-Novemebr 2022 move and if this break is confirmed, the June 2022 swing high at 0.04068 comes into play ahead of the 78.6% Fib retracement just under 0.4700. Solana/Ethereum Spread Weekly Chart – December 21, 2023 Charts via TradingView What is your view on Bitcoin – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/bitcoin-btc-eyes-a-fresh-multi-month-high-solana-sol-continues-to-outperform-20231221.html

2023-12-21 11:00

Article by IG Chief Market Analyst Chris Beauchamp Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, Nikkei 225 - Analysis and Charts Dow hits an air pocket After the huge gains made since the end of October, yesterday’s drop came as a surprise. But with volumes low and newsflow almost absent, it was perhaps not surprising that some profit-taking occurred, although the price continues to hold uptrend support from the lows of October. A close below 37,000 could yet see a move serious pullback develop, though a rally back above 37,500 puts more record highs on the agenda. Dow Jones Daily Chart See how changes in daily and weekly sentiment affect price action Nasdaq 100 steadies after drop This index also suffered a drop, though it only took the price back to the levels seen earlier in the week.This week has seen the index hit a fresh record high, and despite yesterday’s brief volatility momentum still leans towards the upside. A close below trendline support from the October lows could spark more selling and see the price head back toward the 16,000 area, where the price consolidated in November. Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart Nikkei 225 stuck below 33,500 Sellers have held back the price from making further headway above 33,500 this week.For the moment, the price has yet to retest the 50-day SMA or rising trendline support from the December low. A close back above 33,500 means another test of the 33,900/34,000 zone could be in play. A close back below 32,750 would be needed to put further bearish pressure on the index. Nikkei 225 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/dow-nasdaq-100-and-nikkei-225-steady-after-wednesday-s-losses-20231221.html

2023-12-21 07:30

USD/CAD ANLAYSIS & TALKING POINTS BoC meeting minutes suggest less aggressive stance from the central bank. Canadian earnings & retail sales in focus alongside US GDP. Will USD/CAD respect trendline support once again? CANADIAN DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP The Canadian dollar recovery may be fading after last nights Bank of Canada (BoC) summary of deliberations that highlighted the progress being made on the inflationary front. Despite Tuesday’s marginal beat on both core and headline metrics, there has been no upside shift that is cause for concern at this point. Consequently, we have seen an increase in cumulative interest rate cuts (refer to table below) for 2024 as markets now expect this to be the peak of the cycle for the BoC. BANK OF CANADA INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES Source: Refinitiv From a USD perspective, US GDP , jobless claims and core PCE figures are scheduled later today. GDP is expected to move sharply higher which could stabilize the weakening greenback. The Fed’s Harker yesterday pushed back against cutting rates too early and may well gai traction with other Fed officials. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG Daily USD/CAD price action above has bears testing the long-term trendline support zone (black) which has held firm since June 2021. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows momentum pushing out of oversold territory, a break below trendline support cannot be ruled out. Bulls may be looking for a reversal but should exercise sound risk management as a support break may catalyze a significant drop towards 1.3200 psychological level. Key resistance levels: 1.3600 1.3575 1.3500/200-day MA 1.3373 Key support levels: Trendline support 1.3300 1.3200 IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: MIXED IGCS shows retail traders are currently net LONG on USD/CAD, with 76% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-cad-price-forecast-loonie-flirts-with-key-support-wv-20231221.html

2023-12-20 12:30

Gold (XAU/USD) Price, Analysis and Chart The latest US inflation will steer gold going into 2024. Gold continues to test resistance, 20-dsma acting as near-term support. Learn How to Trade Gold with our Complimentary Guide The technical outlook for gold is looking increasingly positive as we near the last major data event of 2023, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, Core PCE. This Friday’s release is expected to show the November Core PCE Price Index (y/y) slip to 3.3% from 3.5% in October, while the PCE Price Index (y/y) is expected at 2.8% from a prior month’s 3.0%. If these market forecasts are correct, the Fed will have a tougher job trying to convince financial markets that US rates need to stay at their current level for much longer. US Dollar (DXY) Latest: Markets Ignore Fed Rate Pushback, GBP/USD and EUR/USD Gold is currently changing hands around $2,036/oz. in what looks to be limited trade. The 20-day simple moving average is providing near-term support and the precious metal is probing an old level of resistance at $2,043/oz. and two recent highs on either side of $2,048/oz. A break higher opens the way to $2,070/oz. and then $2,081/oz. To push higher, gold is going to need a strong driver – maybe Friday’s PCE release – otherwise the precious metal will likely trade sideways going into the festive break. A break below the 20-dsma ($2,023/oz.) would leave $2,009/oz. vulnerable. Gold Daily Price Chart Chart via TradingView Retail trader data shows 61.66% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.61 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 1.22% higher than yesterday and 4.56% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.11% higher than yesterday and 6.83% higher than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. See how changes in IG Retail Trader data can affect sentiment and price action. Charts via TradingView What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-xau-usd-price-lining-up-for-a-year-end-rally-if-us-inflation-cooperates-20231220.html

2023-12-20 11:00

Article by IG Senior Market Analyst Axel Rudolph FTSE 100, DAX 40, S&P 500 Analysis and Charts FTSE 100 tries to reach its September peak The FTSE 100 is on track for its third straight day of gains and has overcome its 7,702 October high while on its way to its near three-month high at 7,725 as UK inflation comes in much lower than expected in November at 3.9% versus a forecast 4.4% and 4.6% in October. Core inflation dropped to 5.1% versus a forecast of 5.6% and a previous reading of 5.7%. Above 7,725 beckons the September peak at 7,747. Potential slips should find support around Friday’s 7,670 high and at Tuesday’s 7,658 high. FTSE 100 Daily Chart See how daily and weekly changes in sentiment can affect FTSE 100 price action DAX 40 consolidates below last week’s all-time record high The DAX 40, which led the way to its record high at around the 17,000 mark last week, is taking a back seat and consolidates roughly between 16,700 and 16,800 as German GfK consumer confidence, though better than expected, remains at -25.1 and year-on-year PPI comes in worse than expected at -7.9%. The index now trades below the October-to-December uptrend line at 16,844 which, because of inverse polarity, acts as a resistance line. While it caps, this week’s low at 16,626 might be revisited. A fall through it would eye the July peak at 16,532. Resistance is seen around the 11 December high at 16,827 and at Friday’s 16,889 high ahead of last week’s peak at 17,003. DAX 40 Daily Chart. Learn how to Trade the News with our complimentary guide S&P 500 grinds higher still and nears its all-time record high The S&P’s advance is ongoing with Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed) President Raphael Bostic’s comment over the lack of "urgency" to remove the restrictive stance being ignored by the financial markets which instead focused on Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin’s comments that the US was making good progress on inflation. Now that the November and mid-December 2021 highs at 4,743 to 4,752 have been bettered, the S&P 500 is approaching its all-time record high made in January 2022 at 4,817. Minor support below Monday’s 4,750 high can be spotted at last week’s 4,739 high. Further down lies the 4,694 March 2022 peak at 4,637. While the last few weeks’ lows at 4,544 to 4,537 underpin, the medium-term uptrend stays intact. S&P 500 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ftse-100-rallies-on-softer-inflation-dax-40-and-s-p-500-grind-higher-still-20231220.html

2023-12-20 08:08

POUND STERLING ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS UK CPI falls to 2-year lows. BoE forecasts now point to first rate cut in May 2024. GBP/USD bearish divergence looks likely. GBPUSD FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP Headline inflation is now comparable with levels last seen in September 2021 and has pushed back against recent messaging that UK inflation is more willful than that of its developed counterparts including the euro area and US. According to the Office for National Statistics report, the largest downward contributions stemmed from transport, recreation and culture, and food and non-alcoholic beverages. The UK’s Chancellor Hunt went on to comment that “there is still further to go on inflation, it never declines in a straight line.” The comment was made most likely in an attempt to limit market reaction although many will dismiss his statement and focus on the actual data. If we turn to markets expectations for Bank of England (BoE) rate path, the dovish repricing has been notable with cumulative interest rate cuts anticipated around 116bps by December 2024. The first cut could take place as soon as May 2024 with the possibility of a February cut very much on the cards should this disinflationary trend continue. BANK OF ENGLAND INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES Source: Refinitiv TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG Daily GBP/USD price action has been threatening bearish/negative divergence as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints lower highs. Cable bears may look to retest the 1.2500 psychological handle/200-day moving average (blue) once more considering recent news. Key resistance levels: 1.2900 1.2848 1.2746 Key support levels: 1.2500/200-day MA 1.2400/50-day MA BULLISH IG CLIENT SENTIMENT (GBP/USD) IG Client Sentiment Data (IGCS) shows retail traders are currently net SHORT on GBP/USD with 53% of traders holding SHORT positions (as of this writing). https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-gbp-breaking-news-cpi-miss-aligns-uk-with-other-economies-wv-20231220.html