2023-12-07 08:15

POUND STERLING ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS UK housing prices provide support for struggling pound. US jobless claims to lay foundation ahead of tomorrow’s NFP report. GBP/USD hesitant ahead of key US data. GBPUSD FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP Later today, jobless claims data will be closely watched with particular emphasis on initial jobless claims as this statistic shows any new/emerging unemployment. ADP employment change missed forecasts yesterday but taking into account its recent disconnect with NFP numbers, markets will largely dismiss its predictive capability. Money market pricing for the BoE (shown below) has been ‘dovishly’ repriced and with only UK GDP and UK jobs reports to come before the next rate announcement, these two data points will carry significant weight as to pricing moving forward. BANK OF ENGLAND INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES Source: Refinitiv TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG Daily GBP/USD price action is nearing key support at the 1.2500 psychological handle/200-day moving average (blue) as the pair comes off overbought territory shown via the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Short-term directional bias will come from tomorrow’s NFP’s that are expected higher and may extend cable’s recent downside. Key resistance levels: 1.2900 1.2848 1.2746 Key support levels: 1.2500 200-day MA 1.2400 BEARISH IG CLIENT SENTIMENT (GBP/USD) IG Client Sentiment Data (IGCS) shows retail traders are currently net SHORT on GBP/USD with 51% of traders holding short positions (as of this writing). https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-gbp-price-forecast-uk-house-price-index-rises-for-2nd-consecutive-month-wv-20231207.html

2023-12-06 23:10

CRUDE OIL PRICE OUTLOOK Crude oil prices (WTI) plunge into freefall, breaking below the psychological $70.00 level The technical outlook remains bearish for now This article looks at oil’s key price thresholds to watch in the coming days Most Read: US Dollar Price Action Setups - USD/CAD Tepid After BoC Decision, USD/JPY Wavers Crude oil prices, as measured by WTI futures, plummeted on Wednesday, falling for the fourth straight session and reaching the lowest level since late June. Factoring in today's precipitous decline (about 4%), WTI has lost nearly 9% of its value in December and has broken below the psychological $70.00 level, a bearish development from a technical standpoint. The recent selloff in energy markets hasn’t been driven by a singular catalyst but rather a convergence of multiple factors. First off, investors have been dismayed by OPEC+ supply cuts announced in late November because they will be voluntary rather than mandatory, which can potentially enable members to circumvent individually committed reductions. Disappointing growth in China, coupled with record U.S. crude production at a time of slowing economic activity, has also created a hostile environment for the commodity. The uptick in U.S. fuel stockpiles beyond the seasonal norm in recent weeks has strengthened the belief that demand destruction is taking place, further weighing on sentiment. Related: US Dollar Setups - USD/JPY Gains as GBP/USD Trends Lower, AUD/USD Hammered Speculative activity by over-leveraged CTAs, which tend to be trend followers, has reinforced oil's weakness, bolstering volatility and exacerbating prevailing directional moves. With CTAs becoming increasingly dominant, their influence on markets will continue to grow, giving way to more and more episodes of rapid and significant price swings. Focusing on the outlook, oil’s path will likely hinge on the health of the U.S. economy. That said, if incoming information validates the view that a recession might emerge soon, prices could remain depressed and even head lower, with the next bearish zone of interest at $67.00. Subsequent losses could draw attention to March and May’s swing lows near $64.00. In the event of a bullish turnaround, a possibility worth considering given some of the disconnects between physical and paper markets, initial resistance lies around $70.00. A successful breach and price consolidation above this threshold might rekindle buying interest, setting the stage for a rally towards $72.50. Further upside progress would shift the focus to the $75.00 mark. Start your voyage to becoming a knowledgeable oil trader today. Don't let the occasion to acquire vital insights and strategies pass you by – obtain your 'How to Trade Oil' guide immediately! CRUDE OIL PRICES (WTI FUTURES) TECHNICAL CHART Crude Oil Prices Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/wti-crude-oil-forecast-prices-in-freefall-as-pivotal-technical-support-falters-20231206.html

2023-12-06 20:30

BITCOIN, CRYPTO KEY POINTS: Bitcoin Pauses Just Shy of the $45k Mark with Options Markets Hinting at a Run to $50k and Beyond. Crypto Industry is the Epitome of Resilience, Market Cap Up $750 Billion Since November 2022. Based on the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust's NAV Discount, Which has Narrowed Dramatically, the Market Assigns a Probability of Around 90% that the Securities and Exchange Commission will Approve Spot Bitcoin ETF. To Learn More AboutPrice Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages,Check out the DailyFX Education Series. READ MORE: Gold (XAU/USD) Prices Flirt with $2000 Level, Eyeing the FOMC Meeting for Fresh Impetus Bitcoin (BTC/USD) finally stalls following five successive days of gains totaling +-16% and coming within a whisker of the $45k mark. The performance of Bitcoin and the Crypto industry in 2023 continues to surprise given the challenges being faced by the industry over the past 18 months. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is approaching $1T in market cap and is up 180% since November 2022. 45% of that growth has been recorded over the past 6 weeks as speculation continues to grow regarding the spot Bitcoin ETF. As things stand, based on the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust's NAV discount, which has narrowed dramatically, the market assigns a probability of around 90% that the Securities and Exchange Commission will approve such a vehicle. The Crypto industry as a whole is benefitting at present having added approximately $750 billion of market cap since November 2022. Looking at the Crypto heatmap below and surprisingly the major Cryptos appear to be experiencing a lull today which could also be down to some profit taking following the recent rally, while altcoins continue to rise with Avalanche up as much as 11%+ on the day. Source: TradingView CRYPTO INDUSTRY RESILIENCE If the last 24 months have proven anything it's that Crypto is here to stay. Having faced unprecedented challenges and many powerful and vocal proponents to its uses and use cases with the latest being JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon who stated he is deeply opposed to crypto. His argument being the same as countless others who attribute crime, money laundering and tax evasion which is ironic considering the US Dollars role in crime across the globe. A story for another time. Of course, Bitcoin does have its vocal supporters with the likes of ARKS Cathy Wood and MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor. It's worth noting that with all the regulation etc. around Banks, the failure of US Banks this year may have been a blessing in disguise for the Crypto industry. There are still clouds hovering over the industry, but this is becoming a normality with market participants hardly taking notice anymore, o so it may seem. BlackRock announce seed funding for Spot ETF of $100k which is small but it Is just a first step with cash likely to change hands a lot quicker once an approval occurs. This shows commitment by BlackRock is ensuring that they are ready for a potential approval. READ MORE: HOW TO USE TWITTER FOR TRADERS BITCOIN PRICE OUTLOOK AND FINAL THOUGHTS From a technical standpoint BTCUSD is approaching a key area of resistance around the $45k mark. However, options markets are hinting that Bitcoin will hit $50k by January with the Spot Bitcoin ETF expected to be approved early in January as well. The question I am grappling with is what will come first? A test of the $50k mark or the spot Bitcoin ETF approval? Open interest for Bitcoin $50,000 strike calls is massive, as displayed in the chart below with options also suggesting the recent rally is just the beginning. Source: Kobeissi Letter Resistance levels: 45000 47500 50000 Support levels: 42500 40000 38590 BTCUSD Daily Chart, December 6, 2023. Source: TradingView, chart prepared by Zain Vawda https://www.dailyfx.com/news/bitcoin-btc-usd-price-forecast-on-the-way-to-50k-or-retracement-first-20231206.html

2023-12-06 19:00

GOLD (XAU/USD) PRICE FORECAST: Gold (XAU/USD) Rangebound as Market Participants Pause Ahead of Jobs Data. US 10Y Yields Hit a Three-Month Low as Gold Ticked Higher. Silver Eyeing a Bullish Continuation Following a Retracement into a Key Confluence Area. To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. MOST READ: ISM Services Tops Estimates, Job Openings Plunge Weighing on the US Dollar Gold prices recovered late in the day yesterday before continuing to trickle higher today. Looking at the larger timeframes and the price is caught in a range ahead of US jobs data due tomorrow. Supercharge your trading prowess and stay up to date on the latest market developments by signing up for the DailyFX newsletter below. US TREASURY YIELDS AND JOBS DATA Investors appear to be taking a pause ahead of the US jobs report due tomorrow after what can be described as a turbulent week for the precious metal. Opening the week with a new record high before a sharp selloff to within touching distance of the psychological $2000/oz level. Today however saw US 10Y Yields hit a three-month low while safe haven appeal continues to keep the precious metal supported. The bigger picture for metals appears a bit clearer but in the short-term a potential retracement cannot be ruled out ahead of the year end. A lot of this will be down to the Jobs report tomorrow and the Fed meeting next week as market participants ramp up rate cut bets. US 2Y and 10Y Yields Source: TradingView It appears we have the perfect cocktail for metal prices to rise heading into 2024 as demand grows. The uncertainty around global geopolitics as well the growing importance of metals in tech production leaves the metals sector in prime position heading into 2024, irrespective of the outcome at next week's FOMC meeting. Looking ahead at tomorrow and we have a host of medium impact data with initial jobless claims likely to gain attention. Friday brings the NFP and Jobs report, which has become even more interesting given the drop in job openings and a softer ADP print. A sizeable miss on Friday and we could get further dollar weakness to end the week which in turn will likely boost Gold prices. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK GOLD Form a technical perspective, Gold is caught n a range following the explosive move higher to start the week. We appear to be caught between the 2020 and 2031 levels at present with any spikes above or below these levels failing to find acceptance. There is every chance that this continues heading into the NFP release on Friday. Either way the weekly timeframe now looks intriguing with a massive shooting star candlestick as things stand. However, with two days left there is a chance that this could change. Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Resistance levels: 2032.00 2041.00 2050.00 Support levels: 2020.00 2010.00 2000.00 Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart – December 6, 2023 Source: TradingView, Chart Prepared by Zain Vawda SILVER The technical outlook for silver may be setting up a continuation of the recent bullish move to the upside. The metal is on course for third successive day of losses but is approaching a key support area with a host of confluences. The area between 23.90-23.50 provide a host of confluences and could see the bullish move continue. Looking at the overall structure and it would appear that silver still needs to complete a ‘wave 5’ and create a new higher high. A daily candle close below the 23.40 handle will mean a change in structure and invalidate the bullish continuation idea. Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart – December 6, 2023 Source: TradingView, Chart Prepared by Zain Vawda IG CLIENT SENTIMENT Taking a quick look at the IG Client Sentiment, Retail Traders are Overwhelmingly Long on Silver with 69% of retail traders holding Long positions. Given the Contrarian View to Crowd Sentiment Adopted Here at DailyFX, is this a sign that Silver may break through the key support are and change structure? https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-price-forecast-gold-rangebound-as-indecision-reigns-pre-nfp-silver-eyes-support-20231206.html

2023-12-06 17:30

Interested in learning how retail positioning can give clues about the short-term trajectory of USD/CAD? Our sentiment guide has all the answers you are looking for. Get a free copy now! USD/CAD ANALYSIS USD/CAD (U.S. dollar - Canadian dollar) retained a negative bias on Wednesday after the Bank of Canada voted to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.0%. While the decision to maintain the status quo was largely anticipated, the BoC left the door open for additional hikes despite abandoning its hawkish inflation characterization and acknowledging that the economy is no longer in excess demand. From a technical standpoint, USD/CAD climbed earlier in the week, but turned lower after failing to take out trendline resistance near 1.3600, with prices subsequently slipping below the 100-day moving average. If losses accelerate in the coming days, support stretches from 1.3515 to 1.3485, where the 200-day SMA aligns with the December swing lows. On further weakness, the focus shifts to 1.3385. In the event of a bullish reversal off current levels, the first hurdle to overcome is positioned near 1.3600. Successfully piloting above this technical barrier could propel the pair towards 1.3630. On continued upward impetus, bulls are likely to initiate an assault on the 50-day simple moving average hovering just below the 1.3700 handle. USD/CAD TECHNICAL CHART USD/CAD Chart Created Using TradingView USD/JPY ANALYSIS USD/JPY (U.S. dollar - Japanese yen) plummeted beneath its 100-day moving average last Friday, but bearish pressure lost traction this week when prices couldn’t breach the lower boundary of an ascending channel that has been active since March. A modest rebound ensued, allowing the pair the reclaim the 147.00 mark. If gains pick up pace over the coming days, the first resistance to watch emerges around the 147.15/147.30 range. Upside clearance of this ceiling could pave the way for a rally towards 149.70. Sellers are likely to defend this area tooth and nail, but in case of a breakout, we can’t rule out a move towards 150.90. Conversely, if the bears stage a comeback and spark a pullback, the first floor to observe extends from 146.30 to 146.00. On further weakness, the attention will transition to 144.50, followed by 144.00. USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-price-action-setups-usd-cad-tepid-after-boc-decision-usd-jpy-wavers-20231206.html

2023-12-06 16:17

US Stocks (SPX) Analysis S&P 500 struggles to capitalize on gap to the upside despite yields hitting 3-month low SPX nears retest of yearly high but bullish fatigue may delay any such ambitions IG client sentiment mixed despite 65% of traders short this market The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library S&P 500 Struggles to Capitalise on Gap to the Upside The S&P 500 may soon witness a slight slowdown as the current (mature) bullish advance risks overheating. US equities have continued to build on prior gains as markets defiantly price in a greater number of 2024 rate hikes which are now anticipated to start in May next year, up from June. With markets being forward-looking in nature, rate cuts bode well for stocks as a lower future interest rate props up the current value of stock prices. SPX nears retest of yearly high but bullish fatigue may delay any such ambitions A slightly lower dollar and US yields trading at a 3-month low appear to be insufficient motivation to push the index higher and register a retest of the 2023 high of 4607. The index has traded within a narrow band over the last week, with the upper band at 4607 and the lower band at 4540. With the JOLTs report and ADP private payrolls already in the public domain, prices may continue to be contained within the trading range until Friday’s NFP data which is expected to reveal slightly more jobs added in November comparted to October. The JOLTs report revealed fewer job openings than expected and the private payrolls disappointed but still posted a net gain – data that is unlikely to reverse the dovish interest rate bets. The RSI has already recovered from overbought territory and the MACD indicator is on the verge of revealing a bearish crossover as bullish momentum fatigues. It would appear that only a significant upside beat on Friday’s NFP data could send the index below 4540, towards 4450 and if this week’s jobs data is anything to go by, that appears unlikely. S&P 500 Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow The weekly chart helps to identify potential upside levels of interest with the first being that retest of 4607 followed by the 4637 level corresponding with the March 2022 high. S&P 500 Weekly Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow IG Client Sentiment Mixed Despite 65% of Traders Net Short Positioning continues to diverge but recent changes in long and short sentiment provide little assistance. Source: IG/DAILYFX US 500:Retail trader data shows 35.00% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.86 to 1. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests US 500 prices may continue to rise. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed US 500 trading bias. To find out more about IG client sentiment and how it can form part of a trend trading setup, read the dedicated guide on the topic below: https://www.dailyfx.com/news/s-p-500-eases-after-promising-gap-higher-at-the-open-yields-hit-3-month-low-20231206.html