2023-12-05 01:00

FORECAST – GOLD, EUR/USD, NASDAQ 100 Gold prices retreat after failing to sustain Monday’s brief bullish breakout The Nasdaq 100 also loses ground, dragged lower by the rebound in U.S. Treasury yields EUR/USD slides but finds support around its 200-day simple moving average Most Read: US Dollar Flies as US Yields Spring Back to Life, Setups on USD/JPY, AUD/USD Gold prices soared early Monday during the Asian session, hitting a fresh record just shy of $2,150. However, this bullish explosion swiftly transformed into a substantial sell-off when European and U.S. markets came online, with the reversal likely attributed to the rebound in bond rates. U.S. Treasury yields have been trending lower since late November on the assumption that the Fed would move to cut borrowing costs in 2024, but perked up at the start of the new week as traders began to unwind bets of excessive monetary easing, which seemed a little inconsistent with the current economic reality. The rally in rates boosted the U.S. dollar across the board, weighing on precious metals and risk assets. In this context, the Nasdaq 100 dropped nearly 1%, though it finished the day off its worst levels after ricocheting off support at 15,700. EUR/USD also fell but managed to hold above its 200-day simple moving average. In this article, we examine the technical outlook for gold, EUR/USD and the Nasdaq 100, taking into account price action dynamics and critical levels that could come into play ahead of key high-impact events in the coming days. Eager to gain insights into gold's future trajectory and the upcoming drivers for volatility? Discover the answers in our complimentary quarterly forecast. Get your free copy now! GOLD PRICES TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold took out its all-time high and hit a fresh record on Monday, but was quickly slammed lower, signaling that the breakout was possibly a fakeout. Despite the 180-degree market reversal, the yellow metal maintains a constructive bias, for which the path of least resistance remains to the upside. With this in mind, if prices resume their advance, the first barrier to watch appears at $2,050, followed by $2,070/$2,075. On further strength, attention shifts to $2,150. Conversely, if losses gain impetus in the days ahead, initial support can be spotted around $2,010. This area could act as a floor in the event of extended weakness, but a drop below it could indicate a deeper pullback in the offing, with the next downside target located at $1,990. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView Stay ahead of the curve! Request your complimentary EUR/USD trading forecast for a thorough overview of the pair’s technical and fundamental outlook EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD rallied vigorously in November, but has started to retrace some of that advance in recent days, with bearish pressure easing as prices tested the 200-day simple moving average. It is important for bulls to defend this technical indicator, which currently symbolizes support; a failure to do so could result in a decline toward 1.0765, followed by 1.0650. On the flip side, if the common currency regains the upper hand against the greenback and stages a meaningful comeback, technical resistance looms at 1.0960 – the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July/October decline. Sustained strength could lead to revisiting November's peak, followed by a move towards horizontal resistance at 1.1080 upon a breakout. EUR/USD TECHNICAL CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView NASDAQ 100 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The Nasdaq 100 soared in November, rising more than 10% and posting its largest monthly gain since July 2022. Despite this strong rally, upward momentum has faded, with the tech index slipping below the 16,000 level in recent days. While the Nasdaq 100 retains a constructive bias over a medium-term horizon, the near-term outlook could flip to mildly bearish if technical support at 15,700 caves in. Should this scenario play out, we could see a drop toward 15,500. Although this region might provide stability on a retracement, breaching it could expose the 100-day simple moving average near 15,325. On the other hand, if sentiment swings back in favor of buyers, resistance is visible in the 16,080 to 16,200 band. Clearing this ceiling might pose a challenge for the bullish camp, but a breakout could ignite strong buying interest driven by FOMO mentality, paving the way for a retest of the all-time high. NASDAQ 100 TECHNICAL CHART Nasdaq 100 Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/xau-usdgold-clobbered-after-fakeout-eur-usd-nasdaq-100-hit-by-rebound-in-us-yields-20231205.html

2023-12-04 20:30

GBP PRICE, CHARTS AND ANALYSIS: GBP/USD Slides as the US Dollar Receives a Bid on Rising Haven Demand. US Data and the Dollar Index Likely to Hold the Key to the Direction of GBPUSD this Week. IG Client Sentiment Shows Retail Traders Have Significantly Increased their Long Positions Over the Last 24 Hours. To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. Read More: Oil Price Forecast: WTI Prints Double Bottom Pattern. Recovery Incoming? GBPUSD continues to struggle hovering around the 1.2600 handle as mixed technical and a strong USD weigh on Cable. A return of safe haven demand as the week began has benefitted the US Dollar and the Dollar Index with a host of key data releases in the week ahead. DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) DRIVES LOSSES ON CABLE Following another week of gains for Cable, a return of strength to the US dollar has seen the pair fall around 100-pips toward the 1.2600 mark. Escalating tensions in the middle east over the weekend and at the start of the week has reignited demand for the US Dollar. This came about as Houthi rebel out of Yemen attacked 3 commercial vessels over the weekend with the US responding by shooting down some drones. The tension continues to simmer and there is concern that one wrong move by either side could spark a wider conflict in the region which could have a massive impact on the global economy. Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart Source: TradingView, Chart Created by Zain Vawda It will be intriguing to see the developments for the rest of the week and whether high impact US data will drive markets later this week or be overshadowed by the Geopolitical risks in play. RISK EVENTS AHEAD In terms of risk events the US dominates this week with only some mid-tier data out of the UK. This means we could see risk sentiment and US data drive GBPUSD for the majority of the week. Tomorrow brings BRC retail sales data from the UK as well as S&P Global Services PMI before attention turns to the US session. The biggest data release tomorrow will be the ISM Services PMI number from the US with policymakers remaining concerned about robustness of the US Service sector and it role in the fight against inflation. A significant drop and miss of the forecasted figure could see expectations for rate cuts increase once more and weakness return to the US Dollar. This will also depend on the market mood and sentiment and whether the demand for safe havens remain strong. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK AND FINAL THOUGHTS GBPUSD failed to find acceptance above the 1.2700 mark on a daily timeframe, spending the best part of 5 days attempting to break higher. Having printed a fresh high however, the pair was in line for a retracement which has been facilitated by a return in US Dollar Strength. The question now will be whether we can push on toward the 1.2500 handle and beyond? There are some mixed signals being thrown up at present, we have just had a golden cross pattern play out as we have the 20-day MA crossing above the 100 and 200-day MAs hinting at bullish momentum. This is in contrast to the candlesticks with GBPUSD on course for a bearish engulfing close which could hint at further downside ahead tomorrow. This sets us up for an interesting day of price action ahead and one which may require a nimble approach to find worthwhile opportunities. Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Support levels: 1.2590 1.2500 1.2470 Resistance levels: 1.2680 1.2750 1.2849 GBP/USD Daily Chart, November 4, 2023 Source: TradingView, Chart Created by Zain Vawda IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA IG Retail Trader Sentiment shows that 51% of traders are currently NET SHORT on GBPUSD. We have seen quite a significant change with an increase of 23% in traders holding LONG positions as GBPUSD slid more than 100 pips today. At DailyFX however we do adopt a contrarian view to client sentiment data. Given the increase in long position holders are we going to see a recovery heading into the Asian and European sessions tomorrow? https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-mixed-technical-signals-and-a-stronger-us-dollar-weigh-on-cable-20231204.html

2023-12-04 18:30

US DOLLAR FORECAST – USD/JPY AND AUD/USD The U.S. dollar gains as U.S. yields mount a solid comeback USD/JPY bounces off trendline support, reclaiming the 147.00 handle Meanwhile, AUD/USD turns lower after failing to take out overhead resistance Most Read: US Dollar’s Trend Hinges on US Jobs Data, Setups on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, staged a bullish turnaround on Monday, bolstered by a solid rally in U.S. yields. Treasury rates have been declining in recent weeks on the assumption that the Fed would move to slash borrowing costs aggressively in 2024, but the move started to unwind somewhat, as easing expectations appear to have gone too far too soon. Against this backdrop, the Japanese yen and Australian yen weakened against the greenback at the start of the new week, reversing some of their recent gains. In this article, we analyze the technical outlook for USD/JPY and AUD/USD, taking into account market sentiment and price action dynamics. We also examine key levels that may act as support or resistance later this week. Access a well-rounded view of the Japanese yen's fundamental and technical outlook by securing your complimentary copy of the most recent trading forecast USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY dropped sharply and closed underneath its 100-day moving average last week. However, the downward momentum faded on Monday when prices failed to break below channel support near 146.00, paving the way for a modest bounce above the 147.00 handle. If gains pick up pace in the coming days, initial resistance stretches from 147.15 to 147.30. On further strength, the focus turns to 149.70, followed by 150.90. In the scenario of a bearish reversal, technical support is located around the 146.00 area, which corresponds to the lower limit of a medium-term ascending channel in play since March. Moving lower, market attention shifts to 144.50, with a potential retreat towards 144.00 likely should the previously mentioned threshold be invalidated. USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView AUD/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD suffered a moderate setback on Monday, with prices turning lower after failing to push above trendline resistance near 0.6665. If losses deepen in the coming trading sessions, primary support rests around 0.6575, where the 200-day simple moving average converges with several swing lows from 2022 and 2023. Extended weakness could lead to a retest of 0.6525. Conversely, if the bulls regain decisive control of the market and manage to push the exchange rate beyond 0.6665, upward impetus could gather strength, creating the right conditions for a rally toward the psychological 0.6800 level. The pair may struggle to breach this barrier, but in case of a clean breakout, we could see a move towards 0.6900. AUD/USD TECHNICAL CHART AUD/USD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-flies-as-us-yields-spring-back-to-life-setups-on-usd-jpy-aud-usd-20231204.html

2023-12-04 16:31

OIL PRICE FORECAST: Oil Finds Support at Recent Lows and Eyes Double Bottom Pattern to Inspire Recovery. US are Aggressively Replenishing SPR as Oil Hovers at Attractive Prices. IG Client Sentiment Shows Traders are 85% Net-Short on WTI at Present. To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. Most Read: What is OPEC and What is Their Role in Global Markets? Oil prices struggled for the majority of the day before finding some joy in the US session. The question is whether there is enough optimism among market participants to inspire a recovery in price? US OIL OUTPUT AND SPR RESERVES The OPEC+ meeting last week failed to convince markets with the 2.2 million bpd seemingly falling short of market expectations. This is really interesting as it comes at a time when US Crude Oil production set a record for second successive month adding a challenge to OPEC+ as they look to keep prices under control. OPEC+ are looking to add more member states which in turn will allow them greater control over the price of Oil moving forward and limit the impact of what is known as ‘Free Riders’. Interesting times ahead just as the possibility of uncertainty in the Middle East rages on. The US Energy Department Deputy Secretary said the United States is taking advantage of low oil prices and refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as much as it can. The Deputy Secretary David Turk was quoted as saying that the amount is limited by physical constraints in the caverns. Will this aid a potential recovery in WTI prices? VENEZUELAN OIL EXPORTS Despite the optimism around the lifting of sanctions on Venezuelan oil, exports remain almost unchanged as discussed following the announcement. The lack of maintenance and infrastructure at oil fields coupled with long-standing loading delays as well as some shippers remaining reluctant to send vessels to the South American nation are all factors. At present authorities are in negotiations with various middlemen in a bid to increase its exports with sales through intermediaries currently languishing around 57% of the total. OPEC+ did comment following the lifting at sanctions warning that any material impact will take a while to be felt. Source: REFINITIV LOOKING AHEAD Looking to the rest of the week and there is a raft of data releases due out particularly from the US which could pose some risks to Oil prices. We also have some Chinese mid-tier data out tomorrow which could give another sign as to the health of the Chinese economy together with US ISM Services PMI release. Both of which could potentially have an indirect impact on oil prices. I would also advise keeping an eye on developments in the Middle East and potential shipping routes facing challenges as the conflict continues to heat up. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK AND FINAL THOUGHTS From a technical perspective, WTI is hovering close to the 473.00 a barrel support area which was the most recent lows in the middle of November. As things stand it does appear we are going to print a double bottom print today barring a late selloff. If that does occur it may bode well for WTI and a potential recovery if recent history is anything to go by. As you can see on the chart below, we had a triple bottom print across June and July which was the start of the rally which led us to the $95 a barrel high printed late in September. It is important to note that we do have very strong resistance areas above current price with the $76 and $78 levels in particular likely to prove challenging. WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart – December 4, 2023 Source: TradingView Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Support levels: 73.00 71.00 70.00 Resistance levels: 76.00 78.00 80.00 IG CLIENT SENTIMENT IG Client Sentiment data tells us that 85% of Traders are currently holding LONG positions. Given the contrarian view to client sentiment adopted here at DailyFX, does this mean we are destined to revisit recent lows and the $70 a barrel mark? https://www.dailyfx.com/news/oil-price-forecast-wti-prints-double-bottom-pattern-recovery-incoming-20231204.html

2023-12-04 15:16

Euro Analysis (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP) EUR/USD reverses course but immediate support provides the next test EUR/GBP attempts to halt the sell-off after Friday’s massive drop The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library EUR/USD Reverses Course but Immediate Support Provides the Next Test The Euro has come under pressure and has depreciated against a number of major FX currencies. The European outlook is fraught with difficulties as the global growth slowdown has had a major impact across the bloc, including Germany, Europe’s largest economy. EUR/USD has traded lower since the swing high last week Wednesday and has approached a zone of support. The zone comprises of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 1.0831 level of support. The pair may trade in a choppier fashion this week as US jobs data trickles in ahead of the major NFP print on Friday. The RSI suggests that further bearish momentum may have further to run as the current downward move is far from oversold territory. However, a close below the 200 SMA with considerable momentum is favourable from a bearish perspective given the potential for the 200 SMA to halt price declines. EUR/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow EUR/GBP attempts to halt the sell-off after Friday’s massive drop Friday saw a massive bearish continuation in EUR/GBP, marking a seventh straight day of declines but today’s price action attempts to break the streak. A pullback does appear to be due as the RSI attempts to recover from oversold territory. Support appears to be hanging on at 0.8565 but there is a lot of ground to recover from here. Sterling has few, if any, bullish drivers but despite this, the pair remains vulnerable to the downside. Markets anticipate fewer rate cuts in the UK than they do for the ECB and the Fed, providing a slight edge for the pound. A bearish continuation could open up 0.8515 as the next major level of support. A pullback from here would do well to reach 0.8635 – the next level of resistance. EUR/GBP Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Risk Events in the Week Ahead The extent of Europe’s economic challenges is likely to take another turn, potentially for the worse, when the third estimate of Q3 GDP comes due on Thursday. Growth has been anaemic throughout Europe and Germany (Europe’s largest economy) has felt the pressure too, registering stagnant growth and narrowly avoiding a technical recession. GDP growth for Q3 is expected to register a 0.1% contraction compared to Q2 while the year-on-year data is expected to reveal a meagre 0.1% improvement when compared to Q3 of 2022. In addition, US services PMI and incoming jobs data (JOLTs, ADP employment and initial jobless claims) are likely to provide markets with points to consider in a week devoid of Fed speak. The Fed has entered the mandatory blackout period ahead of the final FOMC meeting. The main even for the week is undoubtedly the NFP report. October’s jobs data showed a notable drop in the number of positions added to the US economy but more significantly there was movement in the unemployment rate which eased from 3.8% to 3.9%. Easing in the job market is likely to extend the dollar sell-off as markets price in more interest rate cuts into 2024 in response to improved inflation data. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/euro-update-eur-usd-meets-support-while-eur-gbp-looks-halt-major-sell-off-20231204.html

2023-12-04 13:25

USD/CAD ANLAYSIS & TALKING POINTS Souring risk sentiment leaves CAD on the backfoot this Monday morning. BoC unlikely to bolster CAD. USD/CAD hesitates at 1.35. CANADIAN DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP The Canadian dollar upside rally looks to be fading as we enter a big week in terms of key economic data for both Canada and the US. Safe haven demand has bolstered the USD as the war between Israel and Hamas gathers steam. The OPEC+ decision last week did not help the loonie either as markets reacted negatively to the announcement, resulting in lower crude oil prices. Ahead of the Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision later this week, money markets are pricing in a rate pause with roughly 88% probability (refer to table below). If we take into account the recent Canadian economic data including muted growth, marginally higher unemployment and weaker manufacturing PMI’s, there is little benefit for the CAD on the local front. BANK OF CANADA INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES Source: Refinitiv TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG Daily USD/CAD price action above shows bears being constrained around the 200-day moving average (blue) and 1.3500 psychological support level respectively. Although the falling wedge pattern (dashed black line) has been broken, the bullish continuation development may still be on the cards. A confirmation close below the aforementioned support zones could invalidate this but with the pair nearing oversold territory on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a USD reversal is likely. Key resistance levels: 50-day MA 1.3668 1.3600 1.3575 Key support levels: 200-day MA 1.3500 1.3373 IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: MIXED IGCS shows retail traders are currently net LONG on USD/CAD, with 51% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-cad-price-forecast-loonie-stalls-ahead-of-boc-wv-20231204.html