2023-12-04 10:30

Article by IG Senior Market Analyst Axel Rudolph FTSE 100, DAX 40, S&P 500 - Analysis and Charts FTSE 100 comes off six-week high The FTSE 100 is seen coming off last week’s six-week high at 7,543 as investors await more data this week to guide the economic and monetary policy outlook. The 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,492 may be revisited, together with the early November high at 7,484. While Friday’s low at 7,466 underpins, the recent overall upside pressure should remain intact. Failure there would put the major 7,384 to 7,369 September, early October, and late November lows back on the cards. Key resistance remains to be seen at the November and current December highs at 7,535 to 7,543. Above it meanders the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,575. FTSE 100 Daily Chart DAX 40 nears July peak The DAX 40 continues to rally following softer German and eurozone inflation data last week. The index is getting ever closer to its 16,532 July peak around which it is likely to at least short-term stall. If not, a new all-time record high will be made. Immediate upside pressure will be maintained while no slip through Friday’s low at 16,237 is seen. Below it lies last Thursday’s 16,165 low. More significant support can be seen between the August and September highs at 16,044 to 15,992. DAX 40 Daily Chart S&P 500 approaches July high The November advance in the S&P 500 is ongoing with the July peak at 4,607 being within reach despite US Treasury yields regaining some of their recently lost ground. Around this high, the index may short-term consolidate. Once overcome, though, the March 2022 peak at 4,637 will be in focus. Minor support can be seen at the 22 November high at 4,569 and more important support between last week’s lows at 4,539 to 4,537. Slightly further down sits support at the 4,516 mid-September high. S&P 500 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ftse-100-stalls-while-dax-40-s-p-500-near-july-highs-20231204.html

2023-12-04 10:02

Bitcoin (BTC) Prices, Charts, and Analysis: Bitcoin (BTC) eyes resistance at $43k. Spot ETF narrative continues to drive Bitcoin and Ethereum, Bitcoin and Ethereum both took a significant leg higher over the weekend, breaking through prior resistance and testing levels last seen in May last year. The cryptocurrency space has been positive for the past few weeks as investors wait for news on the dozen spot Bitcoin ETF applications sitting on the SEC’s desk. A CNBC report last week that SEC representatives met with BlackRock and Grayscale further boosted the bullish market sentiment. BlackRock has filed for both a Bitcoin and an Ethereum spot ETF and their involvement in the space is seen as important. BlackRock has had 575 out of 576 of its ETF applications approved. Bitcoin (BTC) Continues to Rally as Spot ETF Chatter Gets Louder The technical outlook for Bitcoin has been positive since mid-October when BTC/USD produced a bullish pennant pattern. This coincided with a bullish 50-day/200-day moving average crossover – Golden Cross - and was subsequently followed by a series of higher lows. Prior highs at $38k and $40k have both been broken with ease in the last four sessions. The next level of horizontal resistance comes in just under $43k. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Price Chart – December 4, 2023 Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin this year but has still rallied from around $1,200 to $2,260 since the start of the year. The ETH/USD charts also remains positive with a Golden Cross produced on November 21st and a clear series of higher lows seen since late October. Last Friday’s clean break of resistance at $2,140 opens the way for ETH to rally further with $2,500 and then $3,000 the next logical stopping points. Ethereum (ETH/USD) Daily Price Chart – December 4, 2023 Charts via TradingView What is your view on Bitcoin – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/bitcoin-btc-ethereum-eth-surge-to-fresh-18-month-highs-20231204.html

2023-12-04 07:02

GOLD OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS War between Israel and Hamas ramps up, gold bid. Light economic calendar will see risk sentiment drive market volatility. Bearish technical signals could see gold head back down towards $2000. XAU/USD FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST Gold prices recorded news all-time highs at market open due to escalating geopolitical tensions as Israel and Hamas resume fighting after the ceasefire ended last week. The safe haven allure of the yellow metal supported this move but has since pulled back below the $2100 mark once again; this despite a stronger US dollar. An update from my weekly gold forecast shows a similar implied Fed funds futures path with pricing showing roughly 125bps of cumulative interest rate cuts by December 2024. IMPLIED FED FUNDS FUTURES Source: Refinitiv US real yields (see below) is trading higher following US Treasury yields. Technically, this makes limits gold’s attractiveness due to increasing opportunity cost but for now safe haven demand is the dominating variable. US 10-YEAR REAL YIELD Source: Refinitiv With no real high impact data today, price action will likely be dictated by updates in Gaza as well as expectations surrounding the upcoming ISM services PMI and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) respectively. With many analysts expecting upside surprises, gold may be negatively impacted should this come to fruition. Source: DailyFX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GOLD PRICE DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, TradingView The daily XAU/USD chart above shows the massive rally in early trade with a long upper wick candlestick now forming. Should the candle close in this fashion, bears will be looking for subsequent downside to come which will support fundamental projections for stronger US economic data as mentioned above. Supplementing the bearish bias is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) that remains within the overbought zone. From a bullish perspective, bulls will hold on to some hope as we see the first signs of the golden cross formation (blue). Resistance levels: 2150.00 2081.82 Support levels: 2048.79 2000.00 1987.42 1950.00 GOLD IG CLIENT SENTIMENT: MIXED IGCS shows retail traders are currently net SHORT on GOLD, with 52% of traders currently holding short positions. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-xau-usd-breaking-news-gold-reaches-all-time-highs-wv-20231204.html

2023-12-03 17:00

Most Read: US Dollar’s Path Linked to US Jobs Report, Setups on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD Volatility spiked across many assets last week, producing notable breakouts and breakdowns in the process. First off, U.S. Treasury yields plummeted across the board, with the 2-year yield sinking below its 200-day simple moving average and reaching its lowest level since early June at 4.54%. Falling U.S. bond yields, coupled with bullish sentiment on Wall Street, boosted stocks, pushing the Dow Jones 30 above its July peak and close to its all-time high. The Nasdaq 100 also advanced, but failed to take out overhead resistance near 16,100. The market dynamics also benefited precious metals, triggering a strong rally among many of them. Gold spot prices, for example, rose by 3.5% and came within striking distance from overtaking its record near $2,075. Silver, meanwhile, gained 4.7%, closing at its best level since May. In the FX space, USD/JPY plummeted 1.77% on the week, breaking below its 100-day simple moving average – a bearish technical signal that could portend further losses for the pair. EUR/USD, for its part, was largely flat, with lower-than-expected Eurozone inflation reducing the single currency’s appeal. Eager to gain insights into gold's future trajectory and the upcoming market drivers for volatility? Discover the answers in our complimentary Q4 trading guide. Get it now! Looking ahead, if U.S. interest rate expectations continue to shift lower, U.S. yields are likely to come under further downward pressure, setting the stage for a weaker dollar. Against this backdrop, risk assets and precious metals could remain supported moving into 2024. Upcoming U.S. data, including ISM services PMI and non-farm payrolls (NFP), will give us the opportunity to better assess the Fed's monetary policy outlook. Soft economic figures could reinforce dovish expectations, while strong numbers could result in the unwinding of rate-cut bets. The latter scenario might induce a reversal in recent trends across key assets. For a deeper dive into the catalysts that could guide financial markets and drive volatility in the coming trading sessions, explore the DailyFX’s carefully curated week-ahead forecasts. UPCOMING US ECONOMIC DATA Unsure about the U.S. dollar's trend? Gain clarity with our Q4 forecast. Request your complimentary guide today! FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL FORECASTS British Pound Weekly Forecast: US Rate Views Will Drive, Uptrend Under Threat The British Pound has risen consistently against the United States Dollar since late September, but most of the rally has been a ‘Dollar weakness’ story rather than a vote of confidence in Sterling. Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast: The Yen Remains at the Mercy of External Factors The Japanese Yen has made significant gains against the Euro and Greenback in the past week. The move was driven largely by Euro and USD fundamentals and I expect that to continue. Oil Weekly Forecast: Crude Oil Markets Dissatisfied by OPEC+ Crude oil prices slumped last week after OPEC+ announced voluntary cuts into 2024 as US factors play an important role in short-term guidance this week. Euro (EUR) Forecast: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Crumble as Rate Cut Talk Gets Louder The Euro has sold off against a range of other currencies this week as expectations of an ECB rate cut grow and bond yields slump. Gold Weekly Forecast: XAU Eyes NFP After Powell Gold prices rallied to end the week well above the $2000 mark as XAU/USD heads into the overbought zone. US Dollar’s Trend Hinges on US Jobs Data, Setups on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD This article focuses on the technical outlook for major U.S. dollar pairs such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD. The piece also examines key price levels that could come into play ahead of the November U.S. jobs report. If you're looking for an in-depth analysis of U.S. equity indices, our Q4 stock market trading forecast is packed with great fundamental and technical insights. Request a free copy now! https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-markets-week-ahead-gold-in-record-zone-as-dow-breaks-out-eur-usd-usd-jpy-eye-nfp-20231203.html

2023-12-03 07:00

US DOLLAR FORECAST – EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD The U.S. dollar has fallen sharply in recent weeks The greenback’s bearish correction may extend if November U.S. job data surprises to the downside This article examines the technical outlook for the major U.S. dollar pairs, analyzing critical price levels that could be relevant for EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD Most Read: US Dollar Up but Bearish Risks Grow, Setups on EUR/USD, GBP/USD The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, fell nearly 3% in November, weighed down by the downward correction in U.S. yields triggered by bets that the Federal Reserve has finished raising borrowing costs and would move to sharply reduce them in 2024 as part of a strategy to prevent a hard landing. While some Fed officials have been dismissive of the idea of aggressive rate cuts in the near future, others have not entirely ruled out the possibility. Despite some mixed messages, policymakers have been unequivocal about one aspect: they'll rely on the totality of data to guide their decisions. Given the Fed’s high sensitivity to incoming information, the November U.S. employment report, due for release next Friday, will take on added significance and play a critical role in the formulation of monetary policy at upcoming meetings. In terms of estimates, non-farm payrolls (NFP) are expected to have grown by 170,000 last month, following an increase of 150,000 in October, resulting in an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.9%. For its part, average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% m-o-m, with the related yearly reading easing to 4.0% from 4.1% previously. UPCOMING US ECONOMIC REPORTS With U.S. inflation evolving favorably and recent readings moving in the right direction, policymakers will have cover to start ditching the tough talk in favor of a more tempered stance soon. However, for this to happen, upcoming data will have to cooperate and reveal economic weakness. We will have a better chance to assess the broader outlook and health of the economy in the coming days when the next NFP survey is out. In the grand scheme of things, job growth above 250,000 will likely be bullish for the U.S. dollar, whereas anything below 100,000 could reinforce the currency's recent weakness. Meanwhile, any headline figure around 170,000 should be neutral to mildly supportive of the greenback. For a comprehensive analysis of the euro’s medium-term prospects, request a copy of our latest forecast! EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD pulled back late in the past week, yet its bearish slide eased upon reaching a support zone close to 1.0830. If this technical floor holds, bulls could be emboldened to reload, paving the way for a rally toward Fibonacci resistance at 1.0960. On continued strength, a revisit to November’s high is probable, followed by a move towards horizontal resistance at 1.1080 upon a breakout. On the flip side, if sentiment shifts in favor of sellers decisively and the pair accelerates its descent, support stretches from 1.0830 to 1.0815, a key range where the 200-day simple moving average is currently situated. Moving lower, market attention shifts to 1.0765, with a potential retreat towards 1.0650 likely upon invalidation of the aforementioned threshold. EUR/USD TECHNICAL CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView Interested in learning how retail positioning can give clues about the short-term trajectory of USD/JPY? Our sentiment guide has all the answers you are looking for. Get a free copy now! USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY has been down on its luck in recent weeks, dragged down by the broader U.S. dollar’s downward correction. Heading into the weekend, the pair took a turn to the downside, slipping below the 100-day moving average. If the breakdown holds, prices could slide towards channel support at 146.00. On continued softness, a drop towards 144.50 should not be ruled out. In the scenario of a bullish turnaround, the first technical resistance that could hinder upward movements appears at 149.70. Surpassing this ceiling could pose a challenge for the bulls; however, a topside breakout is likely to ignite a rally towards 150.90, potentially culminating in a retest of this year's peak located around the 152.00 handle. USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView Stay ahead of the curve! Claim your complimentary GBP/USD trading forecast for a thorough overview of the British pound's technical and fundamental outlook GBP/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD has risen sharply over the past three weeks, logging solid gains that have coincided with a shift in favor of riskier currencies at the expense of the broader U.S. dollar. After recent price developments, cable is flirting with overhead resistance at 1.2720, defined by the 61.8% Fib retracement of the July/October selloff. If the bulls manage to clear this ceiling, a rally potentially exceeding 1.2800 might unfold. Conversely, if bullish impetus fades and sellers start to regain the upper hand, we may see a retrenchment towards 1.2590. GBP/USD could stabilize around this technical floor on a pullback before resuming its advance, but a break below the region could intensify bearish pressure, opening the door for a decline towards trendline support and the 200-day moving average slightly above 1.2460. GBP/USD TECHNICAL CHART GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-s-trend-hinges-on-us-jobs-data-setups-on-eur-usd-usd-jpy-gbp-usd-20231203.html

2023-12-03 02:00

CRUDE OIL ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS OPEC+ decision to extend cuts unable to bolster crude oil prices. Potential USD rebound may hinder crude oil bulls. Bearish signals could see crude oil prices breakdown further. CRUDE OIL FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices faded after much anticipation created by OPEC+ postponing their meeting around production cuts due to disagreements with certain African nations. Eventually, the announcement revealed voluntary cuts by selected members led by Saudi Arabia resulting in roughly 2.2 million bpd. The inability to unanimously agree has brought into question the organizations efficacy and cohesion. The alliance has subsequently revealed that Brazil (South America’s largest producer) will join OPEC in January 2024 although no further details were given. Forecasts of a possible surplus in 2024 contributed to the decision by OPEC and with the new extended cuts in place, this may significantly reduce this excess. From a USD perspective, the week ahead is relatively light yet hard hitting in terms of data releases. Firstly, the ISM services PMI report is expected to tick higher – a print that is key to the US economy being primarily services driven. Rounding off the week, Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) will provide more information as to the state of the US job market. Considering the greenback is trading at multi-month lows, it may be time for some dollar strength that could weigh negatively on crude oil. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Both Brent crude and WTI daily charts below exhibit similar chart patterns in the form of a bear flag formation (black). Bears closed the prior week around flag support threatening a breakout lower. The weekly candle close further supports a bearish bias due to its upper long wick that could quickly bring into attention subsequent support zones. ICE BRENT CRUDE OIL DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, TradingView Key resistance levels: $85.00 200-day MA Key support levels: Flag support $76.65 $75.00 WTI CRUDE OIL DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, TradingView Key resistance levels: $80.00 $75.00 Key support levels: Flag support $72.22 $70.00 IG CLIENT SENTIMENT: MIXED https://www.dailyfx.com/news/oil-weekly-forecast-crude-oil-markets-dissatisfied-by-opec-wv-20231203.html