2023-12-02 16:00

GOLD OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS Fed Chair Powell ramps up dovish bets. US ISM services PMI and NFP under the spotlight next week. Overbought gold could be heading lower next week. XAU/USD FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST Gold prices turned higher on Friday after US ISM manufacturing PMI’s disappointed followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell providing some less aggressive messaging, possibly hinting at the peak of the Fed’s hiking cycle. Although Mr. Powell attempted to refrain from sounding overly dovish, market did not take heed to these sentiments. Some key statements include: “Fed Funds range well into restrictive territory.” “It is ‘premature’ to say monetary policy is restrictive enough.” “I expect spending and output to slow over the next year.” From a money market perspective (refer to table below), interest rates are expected below the 4% mark by December 2024. The recent slew of US economic data has contributed to this narrative alongside a slump in US Treasury yields as the 2-year edges towards the 4.5% support level. IMPLIED FED FUNDS FUTURES Source: Refinitiv The week ahead sees ISM services PMI data come into focus. The more significant of the two PMI releases as the US is primarily a services driven economy. Gold bears will be observing a tick higher to 52 with the highlight of the week coming from Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). A strong NFP number could reverse the recent gold rally while another upside advocate stemmed from the recommencement of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. Bullions safe haven appeal has been reignited after the recent ceasefire and any escalation could keep prices bid. Source: DailyFX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GOLD PRICE DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, TradingView Daily XAU/USD price action looks to head up towards the March 2022 and May 2023 resistance zone around the 2081.82 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is deep within overbought territory and could hint at a pullback lower. That being said, bulls will be looking at the looming golden cross formation that could extend the recent rally. Resistance levels: 2081.82 Support levels: 2048.79 2000.00 1987.42 1950.00 GOLD IG CLIENT SENTIMENT: MIXED IGCS shows retail traders are currently net SHORT on GOLD, with 53% of traders currently holding long positions. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-gold-weekly-forecast-xau-eyes-nfp-after-powell-wv-20231202.html

2023-12-01 15:15

EUR/USD, PRICE FORECAST: EUR/USD Bears Seize Control Ahead of the Weekend as the 200-Day MA Comes into Focus. US Manufacturing PMI Data Remains Weak and in Contractionary Territory. Market Participants now Pricing in 125bps of ECB interest-rate cuts in 2024. To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. MOST READ: Oil Price Forecast: WTI Slips as OPEC+ Voluntary Cuts Fail to Convince The Euro continued its slide today falling toward the 1.0850 as the DXX continued its advance in the European and early parts of the US session. The US Dollar for its part appears to be benefitting following comments from Fed policymakers yesterday with the Fed Chair himself scheduled to speak later today. Will we see a bout of volatility ahead of the weekend? US MANUFACTURING DATA AND EU DATA The mix of data released yesterday has kept EURUSD bulls largely subdued. The inflation print similarly weighing on the Euro and thus dragging EURUSD lower. According to the flash estimates published by Eurostat on Thursday, the Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) decelerated more than anticipated, to 2.4% YoY in November from 2.9% in the previous month. The Core HICP increased by 3.6% on an annual basis during the reported month, down from October’s final print of 4.2% and missing market expectations for a 3.9% rise. The news saw market participants increase their optimism around rate cuts from the ECB in 2024 (Traders fully price 125bps of ECB interest-rate cuts in 2024) which further harmed the chance of the Euro holding the high ground. US data showed further easing from US consumer spending as market participants appear to be tightening their belts ahead of the festive season. Today we had manufacturing data out of the US with both the S&P Global and ISM PMI data which came out a short while ago. The S&P Global PMI number was in line with estimates but comments from S&P Economist Williamson the data hints at little if any contribution from the goods producing sector in Q4. Not surprising as Q4 growth in the US is not expected to be anywhere close to the blockbuster Q3 number. Source: S&P Global PMI The ISM Manufacturing PMI data missed estimates as the manufacturing sector contracted for a 13th consecutive month. The print came in at 46.7 while the overall economy continued in contraction for a second month after one month of weak expansion preceded by nine months of contraction and a 30-month period of expansion before that. Another sign that the slowdown has is beginning to take hold? FED POLICYMAKERS AND LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK Before we look at next week, we do have a speech from Fed Chair Powell later today. We also heard some comments a short while ago from policymaker Goolsbee who sounded rather confident that the Fed are on the right path and winning the inflation battle. Heading into next week and the early part of the week could see EURUSD being driven mostly by market sentiment. High impact data releases will also start filtering through from Wednesday and thus we could be in for some low volatility until then, something which became a theme this week until US data was released. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK AND FINAL THOUGHTS Looking at EURUSD and the technical picture and we have had a perfect rejection of the 1.1000 psychological level before the ensuing selloff which has gathered pace. We have just tapped into an area of support around the 1.0840 mark with a short-term retracement either today or Monday looking likely. A move higher here will bring resistance at 1.0904 and 1.0950 into play and these as mentioned above, provide a better risk to reward ratio. A bounce here will only serve to provide potential shorts with a better risk to reward as EURUSD eyes a test of the 200-day MA. A break lower will bring the 1.0782 and 1.0747 support areas into focus. EUR/USD Daily Chart – December 1, 2023 Source: TradingView IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA IGCSshows retail traders are currently split on EURUSD with 51% of traders short. Of interest though is the change in the daily long positions which is up 14%. Is this a sign that a retracement may be imminent? https://www.dailyfx.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-eur-usd-prints-fresh-weekly-with-200-day-ma-in-sight-20231201.html

2023-12-01 12:48

Gold (XAU/USD) Price, Analysis and Charts Gold hesitates at $2,050/oz. but the outlook remains positive. Fed Chair Powell speaks later in the session. Most Read: Gold and Silver Continue to Rally as Buyers Take Charge Gold made an early push today and came within a handful of dollars of printing a fresh 20-month high, but the move lacked conviction in an otherwise quiet market. The US dollar is little changed on the day after pushing higher on Thursday, while US bond yields, a driver of recent price action, are a fraction higher at best. One driver of the small move higher is likely the resumption of the war in Gaza after the seven-day ceasefire between Israel and Hamas ended. According to BBC sources, the government of Qatar confirmed that renewed ceasefire talks between the two sides are ongoing. Later in today’s session, we have US ISM Manufacturing for November with analysts forecasting a print of 47.7 compared to 46.7 in October. ISM Manufacturing fell sharply last month, after rallying from 46.0 in June. A PMI reading under 50 indicates that the manufacturing sector is in decline. Later, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a fireside chat at Spelman College at 16:00 UK before being part of a round table event at the same venue at 19:00 UK. This will be the last we hear from Federal Reserve members as they enter a blackout period ahead of the December 13 FOMC meeting. Chair Powell is unlikely to deviate from his current stance that US rates will be raised if data dictates despite the market completely pricing out any further interest rate hikes. Gold currently trades around $2,038/oz. after touching a high a fraction under $2,050/oz. earlier today. The daily chart remains bullish from a technical point of view, although an overbought CCI reading may prevent the precious metal from breaking higher in the short term. Gold Daily Price Chart – December 1, 2023 Chart via Trading View Retail trader data shows 47.36% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.11 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 0.11% higher than yesterday and 15.02% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.97% lower than yesterday and 31.47% higher than last week. See how changes in IG Retail Trader data can affect price action. What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-xau-usd-rejects-2-050-oz-ahead-of-fed-chair-powell-s-thoughts-20231201.html

2023-12-01 11:00

Article by IG Senior Market Analyst Axel Rudolph FTSE 100, DAX 40, S&P 500 Analysis and Charts FTSE 100 ends the month in positive territory The FTSE 100 slid to 7,383 on Thursday before reversing to the upside as inflation continues to weaken in the eurozone. The 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,494 capped and is doing so once more on Friday morning. Once overcome, the 17 November high at 7,516 will be in focus, together with the 7,535 November high. Minor support is found at the 21 November low at 7,446. FTSE 100 Daily Chart DAX 40 continues to surge ahead as eurozone inflation weakens The DAX 40 continues to surge ahead as eurozone inflation came in weaker-than-expected on Thursday with the July peak at 16,532 being in sight. Minor resistance on the way up can be spotted at the 16,421 31 July low. Support below Friday’s intraday low at 16,236 is seen at Thursday’s 16,165 low. More significant support can be found between the August and September highs at 16,044 to 15,992. DAX 40 Daily Chart See How Successful Traders Approach the Market S&P 500 sees best November since 1980 The sharp November rally in the S&P 500 has lost upside momentum but the index nonetheless continues to trade in four-month highs as the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge came in as expected at 3% year-on-year in October.November was not only the best-performing month for the S&P 500 this year but also the strongest November since 1980. Resistance is found at the November peak at 4,587, followed by the July peak at 4,607. While this week’s lows at 4,539 to 4,537 underpin, the short-term uptrend remains intact. Slightly further down sits potential support at the 4,516 mid-September high. S&P 500 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ftse-100-dax-40-and-s-p-500-remain-bid-as-inflation-slows-20231201.html

2023-12-01 08:19

USD/CAD ANLAYSIS & TALKING POINTS OPEC+ production cuts keep CAD elevated. Canadian jobs report, ISM manufacturing PMI and Fed speak under the spotlight later today. Falling wedge support break under threat. CANADIAN DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP The Canadian dollar continues its ascendency against the USD reaching levels last seen in late September. Despite annualized GDP figures significantly missing estimates yesterday alongside a fall in average weekly earnings, the loonie rallied. The upside support was largely due to OPEC+ announcing deeper voluntary cuts extending through to the end of the first quarter of 2024. Although this underwhelmed crude oil markets, the surplus forecast for 2024 will likely be reduced by this decision that could buoy Canadian crude oil prices and aid the local currency. BANK OF CANADA INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES Source: Refinitiv From a US perspective, the ISM manufacturing PMI release will come into focus after dropping off sharply in October. Expectations are to remain within contractionary territory (below 50). The focal point for the trading day today will come via Fed Chair Jerome Powell who will speak later this evening with markets closely monitoring any shift in tone. The prior address reiterated that the Fed is not looking to cut rates anytime soon, so it will be interesting to see whether or not he sticks with this narrative. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG Daily USD/CAD price action shows the pair testing falling wedge support (dashed black line) with the 200-day moving average (blue) not too far away. I do foresee a USD pullback higher but a confirmation break below 1.3500 could negate this outlook. Key resistance levels: 1.3700/Wedge resistance 50-day mA 1.3600 1.3575 Key support levels: Wedge support 200-day MA 1.3500 IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: BEARISH IGCS shows retail traders are currently net LONG on USD/CAD, with 51% of traders currently holding short positions (as of this writing). https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-cad-price-forecast-loonie-susceptible-to-canadian-jobs-report-fed-chair-powell-wv-20231201.html

2023-12-01 00:00

FORECAST – GOLD PRICES, NASDAQ 100, USD/JPY Gold prices and the Nasdaq 100 slide after failing to clear technical resistance Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday will steal the limelight and could be a source of market volatility This article examines the technical outlook for gold prices, the Nasdaq 100 and USD/JPY, analyzing the critical price levels that may come into play in the near term Most Read: US Dollar Up but Bearish Risks Grow, Setups on EUR/USD, GBP/USD Before Powell U.S. Treasury yields bounced back on Thursday after San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said that it is premature to declare victory against inflation and that policymakers are not yet thinking about reducing borrowing costs. The rally in rates, which boosted the U.S. dollar across the board, weighed on technology stocks and non-yielding assets, with the Nasdaq 100 sliding for the second day in a row and gold prices stalling at technical resistance. Meanwhile, USD/JPY rose sharply, bouncing off its 100-day simple moving average. Volatility could increase in the coming days, especially as Fed Chair Powell is set to engage in a fireside chat at Spelman College in Atlanta, Georgia, on Friday. It is crucial for traders to focus on his remarks, given the recent mixed signals and inconsistent messaging from the central bank. POSSIBLES FED SCENARIOS 1) Hawkish rethoric Hawkish comments by Powell favoring higher interest rates for longer are likely to exert upward pressure on U.S. yields, fostering conditions for the continuation of the U.S. dollar's recent recovery. This, in turn, might negatively impact both gold prices and the Nasdaq 100 2) Dovish outcome Lack of strong pushback against the dovish monetary policy outlook reflected in market pricing could convince traders the Fed is about to capitulate, weighing on yields and the greenback. While this scenario could create a virtuous cycle for bullion and tech stocks, it could send USD/JYP sharply lower. BOTTOM LINE To prevent further easing of financial conditions, which could complicate efforts to restore price stability sustainably, Powell could come out swinging, pledging to stay the course and to maintain a restrictive stance for an extended period. This position could disrupt the bullish momentum seen in the equity market and precious metals complex over the past few weeks. Eager to gain insights into gold's future trajectory and the upcoming market drivers for volatility? Discover the answers in our complimentary Q4 trading guide. GOLD PRICES TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold rallied sharply in recent weeks, briefly reaching its best levels since May. Prices, however, have been unable to push past the $2,050 threshold, with sellers defending this barrier tooth and nail for now. It is too early to know for sure if this technical ceiling will hold, but if it ultimately does, it won’t be long before we see a drop towards $2,010. XAU/USD might find stability upon testing this area, but a breach could prompt a bearish move toward $1,985 and $1,960 if the weakness persists. Conversely, if upward momentum resurfaces with fury and pushes prices decisively above $2,050, gold could be headed towards its all-time high above $2070 in short order, the next major resistance to watch closely. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView Will there be a Santa Rally? Find out in our Q4 trading forecast for equity indices! NASDAQ 100 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The Nasdaq 100 soared in November, rising more than 10% and posting its largest monthly gain since July 2022, when it advanced 12.5%. Despite the strong upward momentum, the tech index has started to stall out this week, with prices struggling to clear technical resistance near 16,100. While it would not be unusual to see a healthy pullback after such a strong performance, especially if markets have become overly exuberant of late, a break above 16,100 could unleash animal spirits on Wall Street, invigorating bullish momentum and propelling prices towards their all-time highs set in 2021. On the other hand, if sentiment starts to deteriorate and the bulls head for the hills to wait for better entry points, we could see a drop towards at 15,700, followed by 15,500. Although the tech index could encounter support in this region during a decline, a move below it could send prices towards 15,300. NASDAQ 100 TECHNICAL CHART Nasdaq 100 Chart Created Using TradingView USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY has been down on its luck in recent weeks, dragged down by broad-based U.S. dollar weakness. However, the pair managed to stabilize over the past couple of days near its 100-day simple moving average, which has led to a moderate recovery. If gains pick up momentum in the coming sessions, resistance appears at 149.70. Surpassing this obstacle might prove daunting for the bullish camp, but doing so could trigger a rally towards 150.90, followed by 152.00. On the flip side, if the nascent rebound ends abruptly and gives way to a bearish reversal, primary support is found at 147.25. Preserving this technical floor is essential as a breakdown might set off a decline towards channel support at 146.00. On further losses, the focus shifts to 144.50. USD/JPY TECHINCAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-gold-price-nasdaq-100-rejected-at-resistance-usd-jpy-flies-ahead-of-powell-20231201.html