2023-11-30 09:40

Article by IG Chief Market Analyst Chris Beauchamp Dow Jones, Nasdaq 10, Nikkei 225 - Prices, Charts, and Analysis Dow on the up once more The rally has recovered this week, canceling out expectations of at least a short-term pullback.The July highs at 35,690 are now just a short distance away, and a move back here would mark the recovery of all the summer and early Autumn losses. Above this the next target is 35,860, and then on to the record high at 36,954. Once more any hope of a pullback has been dashed, with little sign at present in price action that one is at hand. It would need a close back below 35,300 to suggest that one may be close. Dow Jones Daily Chart Nasdaq 100 holds around 16,000 The price is consolidating around the 16,000 level, having surpassed the July high in mid-November. For a short-term bearish view, the price would need to reverse course and head back below 15,760. This might then see a reversal towards the October highs at 15,330. Having cleared 16,000, the index’s next hurdle to the upside would be 16,630, the record high from 2021. Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart Nikkei 225 rallies off support After dropping back towards 33,000, the index has moved higher, holding support for the time being.Renewed gains above last week’s high (33,800) once more leave the index on course to hit the June high at 34,000. Beyond this lies the 1989 high at 38,957. Sellers would need a renewed close below 33,120 to suggest a new attempt to push lower is underway. Nikkei 225 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/dow-nasdaq-100-and-nikkei-225-look-for-further-gains-20231130.html

2023-11-30 07:16

POUND STERLING ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS Dovish Fed narrative holds strong in support of sterling. US core PCE price index under the spotlight later today. GBP/USD uncertain at overbought levels. GBPUSD FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP The British pound has been heavily influenced but the US dollar of recent with investors becoming less hawkish on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. Recent weaker US economic data has prompted such an outlook alongside some dovish Fed commentary. During yesterday’s US trading session, the 2nd estimate on US GDP surprised to the upside but the market remained firm on it’s bearish USD viewpoint after the Fed Beige book revealed slowing economic growth and softening prices that will likely extend through to 2024. Some mixed Fed speak did not really move the needle but is worth mentioning – see statements below: Fed’s Mester: (NEUTRAL) “Monetary policy in a good place, the US central bank has time to vet incoming data.” “I see clear progress in lowering still-high inflation.” Fed’s Barkin: (HAWKISH) “I am skeptical for being on track for 2% inflation.” “I am not willing to take another rate hike off the table.” I believe inflation will be more stubborn than we'd like.” Fed’s Bostic: (DOVISH) “The US Central Bank can feel more confident in its current outlook.” “A downward trajectory of inflation will likely continue.” From a UK perspective, the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey spoke yesterday reinforcing the need to bring inflation down to 2% by “whatever measures” although markets did not take heed as the US holds a solid lead. BoE pricing shows 75bps of rate cuts by December 2024 but will likely change as UK economic data starts filtering in from next week onwards. BANK OF ENGLAND INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES Source: Refinitiv TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG Daily GBP/USD price action trades in overbought territory on the Relative Strength Index (RSI),as yesterdays doji close underlines hesitancy ahead of today’s core PCE price index report. That being said, there is still room for the pair to push higher as the 200-week moving average sits around the 1.2848 resistance handle. We could say some form of consolidation at current levels before a bullish continuation up towards that 200-week MA. As mentioned above, US data is critical to short-term directional bias on cable. Key resistance levels: 1.2900 1.2848 1.2746 Key support levels: 1.2500 200-day MA 1.2308 MIXED IG CLIENT SENTIMENT (GBP/USD) IG Client Sentiment Data (IGCS) shows retail traders are currently net SHORT on GBP/USD with 58% of traders holding long positions (as of this writing). https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-gbp-price-forecast-pound-being-dictated-to-by-us-economy-wv-20231130.html

2023-11-29 19:30

OIL PRICE FORECAST: Oil Continues to Advance as Market Participants Eye Further Cuts by OPEC+. Rumors Suggest That There is Still Disagreements Regarding 2024 Quotas Within OPEC+. WTI Faces Technical Hurdles While Retail Traders are Overwhelming long on WTI at Present. To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. Most Read: What is OPEC and What is Their Role in Global Markets? Oil prices are enjoying a second successive day of gains, up around 1.5% at the time of writing. A lot of the optimism stems from the idea that OPEC+ will announce additional cut at tomorrow’s virtual meeting despite rumors that an agreement is far from being reached. OPEC+ MEETING TO DOMINATE The OPEC+ meeting, which was delayed to tomorrow, November 30 and will be a virtual meeting continues to be the major talking point in relation to oil prices. There has been a back and forth for the majority of the week as rumors swirl around disagreements between countries regarding the supply and output quotas. Disagreements between African countries like Angola and Nigeria with OPEC heavyweight Saudi Arabia dominated headlines in the early part of the week but based on the recent two day rally it would appear market participants believe a deal will be reached. According to a note from Barclays they do not believe that new target levels for African producers pose an existential threat to OPEC+. To give an accurate picture of where things stand, around 3 hours ago sources claimed no agreement reached and a further delay to the virtual meeting remains possible. Two hours after this and the Wall Street Journal published a piece citing sources who claim that OPEC+ considering new oil production cuts of as much as 1 million barrels a day with Saudi Arabia supporting the idea while the UAE are reportedly against it. As i have mentioned before i find these disagreements rather strange given the Global economic outlook and conflicts in the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine. I am at a loss as to why producers are arguing about cuts when an oversupply will see a decline in Oil prices and thus slash profit margins. Thus, selling and producing more will not necessarily lead to an increase in profit and thus my surprise. Looking at the bigger picture and tomorrow's meeting (should it go ahead) could be a massive one for Oil prices and producers as 2024 draws closer. Another concern which has helped market participants worried about supply disruptions from Kazakhstan following a major storm in the Black Sea area. The concern is that exports may be disrupted from both Russia and Kazakhstan which could affect upto 2 million barrels per day. LOOKING AHEAD Most of the attention will be fixed on developments at the OPEC+ meeting but we do also have the US Federal Reserves preferred inflation gauge to come this week. We also have a host of Federal Reserve speakers who could add an extra layer of volatility to the US Dollar TECHNICAL OUTLOOK AND FINAL THOUGHTS From a technical perspective WTI does appear to have bottomed out having just printed a new higher low as it looks for a change in structure. WTI remains bearish for now with a daily candle close above the $78.55 mark needed for a change in structure and bulls to assume control. Having already failed once before WTI has to contend with the 200-day MA which rests at the $78.06 mark first if we are to see a change in structure and potentially a retest of the key psychological $80 a barrel mark. WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart – November 29, 2023 Source: TradingView Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Support levels: 76.95 75.00 73.00 Resistance levels: 78.06 78.55 80.00 IG CLIENT SENTIMENT IG Client Sentiment data tells us that 82% of Traders are currently holding LONG positions. Given the contrarian view to client sentiment adopted here at DailyFX, does this mean we are destined to revisit recent lows? https://www.dailyfx.com/news/oil-price-forecast-wti-faces-technical-hurdles-as-opec-rumors-swirl-20231129.html

2023-11-29 17:15

USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS While USD/JPY has been on a major bullish run since the beginning of the year, it has trended lower in recent days following several unsuccessful attempts at clearing overhead resistance in the 152.00 region. After the latest pullback, which has been accelerated by falling U.S. yields, the pair has arrived at the doorsteps of an important floor near 147.25. The integrity of this technical area is vital; failure to maintain it could trigger a drop towards channel support at 146.00. On further weakness, attention shifts to 144.50. In the event of a bullish turnaround, the first obstacle that could hinder upside progress appears at 149.70. Overcoming this resistance level might prove challenging for the bulls, yet doing so could spark a rally towards 150.90, possibly followed by a retest of this year's high. USD/JPY PRICE ACTION CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView USD/CAD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD has also corrected lower this month, but it has started to perk up after encountering support near 1.3570-1.3555, where the 100-day simple moving average converges with a short-term rising trendline. Maintaining this floor will bring stability to the pair and may create the right conditions for a rebound toward 1.3630. Further strength could redirect focus towards the 1.3700 handle. On the other hand, if USD/CAD resumes its descent and breaks below cluster support stretching from 1.3570 to 1.3555, we may see a drop towards the 200-day simple moving average, just above the psychological 1.3500 mark. Prices could gain a foothold in this area on a pullback, but in the event of a breakdown, a move towards 1.3400 seems very possible. USD/CAD PRICE ACTION CHART USD/CAD Chart Created Using TradingView Unsure about the Australian dollar’s trend? Gain clarity with our complimentary Q4 trading forecast! AUD/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The downturn in the broader U.S. dollar has benefited the Aussie significantly in recent weeks. For instance, AUD/USD has staged a solid rally in November, briefly touching its strongest level since early August during the overnight session. While AUD/USD retains a constructive short-term bias, solidifying confidence in the bullish outlook requires a decisive move above trendline resistance at 0.6675. Given the pair’s overbought conditions in recent days, this scenario may take some time to develop, but an abrupt and unexpected breakout could still propel the exchange rate towards the 0.6800 handle. Conversely, if upward pressure fades and sellers regain decisive control of the market, primary support rests at 0.6620/0.6600 and then 0.6580, near the 200-day simple moving average. On further weakness, we could see a retrenchment towards 0.6525. AUD/USD PRICE ACTION CHART AUD/USD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-on-bearish-path-technical-setups-on-usd-jpy-usd-cad-aud-usd-20231129.html

2023-11-29 15:12

US GDP KEY POINTS: US GDP Q3 (2nd Est) Actual 5.2% Vs 2.1% Previous. GDP Price Index QoQ (2nd Est) Actual 3.5% Vs 1.7% Previous. Markets Continue to Price in More Aggressive Rate Cuts from the Fed in 2024, Weighing on the US Dollar. To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. MOST READ: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Holds the High Ground as Binance Deals with Client Exodus The US Economy expanded at an annualized rate of 5.2% in Q3 2023, upwardly revised from the first estimate of 4.9% and above the forecasted figure of 5%. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. Also, residential investment rose for the first time in nearly two years and at a much faster pace than initially expected (6.2% vs 3.9% in the advance estimate). Meanwhile, private inventories added 1.4 pp to growth, above 1.32 pp in the previous estimate and government spending increased faster (5.5% vs 4.6%). On the other hand, consumer spending went up 3.6%, slightly less than 4% in the advance estimate, but remaining the biggest gain since Q4 2021 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Disposable personal incomeincreased $144.0 billion, or 2.9 percent, in the third quarter, an upward revision of $48.2 billion from the previous estimate.Real disposable personal incomeincreased 0.1 percent, an upward revision of 1.1 percentage points. US ECONOMY The data today seems to have had little impact on the US Dollar as it actually lost some ground in the aftermath of the release. There is growing optimism for more aggressive rate cuts in 2024 with industry titans like Bill Ackman saying that he believes the Fed may begin cutting rate earlier than markets participate. Fed Policymakers for their part have struck an uncharacteristically dovish tone in comments this week with policymaker Bowman one of the few maintaining a slightly hawkish stance. The US Economy is not expected to keep up the pace of economic growth in Q4 with Fed policymaker eyeing growth of between 1-2%. Appears to be waning in Q4 as higher borrowing costs curb hiring and spending. One of the areas that remain a concern for the Fed is the Service sector and which has experienced high demand which has kept prices elevated. It will be intriguing to see how the US economy navigates the end of 2023 and starts 2024 and whether the fight against inflation is well and truly behind the Federal Reserve. MARKET REACTION Following the data release the dollar index remained relatively unchanged which shouldn’t come as a surprise. Since then, the DXY has actually retreated a bit but still remain marginally up for the day as it looks to bounce back from 4-month lows. Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart- November 29, 2023 Source: TradingView, prepared by Zain Vawda Gold prices surprised me yesterday if I am being honest but the explosion above the $2000 mark came about largely as markets priced in more rate cuts from the Fed in 2024. At current price levels there is not a lot to analyze from a technical standpoint as price has barely traded at these levels in the past. However, should we fail to break above the $2050 mark and given the speed of the rally yesterday we could get some form of retracement. Gold bulls will hope for a weekly candle close above the $2000 mark which would be a meaningful step toward further upside. XAUUSD Daily Chart- November 29, 2023 Source: TradingView, prepared by Zain Vawda https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-q3-gdp-revised-up-to-5-2-as-gold-remains-unfazed-dxy-bounces-20231129.html

2023-11-29 13:39

German CPI, Euro News and Analysis German disinflation marches on – prices rise at a slower rate in November Upward revision to US Q3 GDP upstages the CPI data EU Inflation data out tomorrow and is expected to reveal further progress Inflation in Germany dropped to 3.2% compared to November 2022 and represented a further decline from October’s 3.8% year-on-year print. More notably, the month-on-month decline was 0.4% and sharper than the -0.2 estimate. EU inflation data is due tomorrow with consensus estimates indicating another drop in the headline and core measures of inflation. The rate of decline in inflation has markets pricing in rate cuts in 2024 at a similar pace to that expected from the Fed – just over 100 bps worth of cuts. However, inflation could drop more in EU as the European economy hasn’t been anywhere near as resilient as the US, meaning declining activity could accelerate existing economic headwinds, posing a threat to the Euro. The inflation print was soon upstaged by the upward revision to US GDP growth relating to the third quarter, resulting in an intra-day move lower on the 5-minute time frame. EUR/USD 5-Min chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow The daily EUR/USD chart sees the pair pulling back today after Hawkish comments from Fed Board Member Waller anticipated the first rate cut in the US taking place in 3-5 months. The dollar sold off notably thereafter. US PCE data tomorrow can further influence the direction of the pair tomorrow as well as Powell's potential push back to Wallers rate cut comments. EUR/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/eu-breaking-news-german-inflation-drops-as-disinflationary-trend-continues-20231129.html