2023-11-29 12:06

British Pound: GBP/USD Charts and Analysis US rate expectations now point to a 25bp rate cut in May and a total of 125bps in 2024. US GDP and inflation data will be the key drivers of short-term momentum. Most Read: British Pound Latest: GBP/USD Remains Supported, BoE Warn on Inflation Interest rate cuts in the US may start in May next year with a total of five 25bp cuts now priced in for 2024, according to the latest CME market probabilities. There is a growing perception that US growth is set to slow over the coming months, and that coupled with inflation slowing down will allow the Fed to act faster than originally thought. This week we have the second look at US GDP and the latest US inflation report and these will steer markets in the coming days. CME FedFund Expectations UK rate expectations in contrast show the first 25bp rate cut fully priced in for the August meeting with a total of 71 basis points seen trimmed off the Bank Rate over the year. Recent commentary coming out of the Bank of England has warned that UK inflation may remain above target for longer than previously thought, dampening expectations of an H1 2024 rate. The yield on the rate sensitive US 2-year has fallen sharply this week as rate cut expectations grow, and is now at levels last seen back in July. From a technical outlook, the yield has bounced off the 200-day simple moving average, and this needs to hold to prevent the yield from falling further. This weakness is pulling the US dollar lower. US 2-Year Yield Daily Chart With Sterling grabbing a small bid, and the US dollar under pressure, cable has been posting a batch of fresh multi-week highs over the past couple of weeks. The pair tested and then broke through the 200-day sma last week and this coincided with a break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The pair now rest between two prior levels of interest, 1.2667 and 1.2742. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Charts using TradingView Retail trader data show 40.34% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.48 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 13.16% lower than yesterday and 19.65% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.12% higher than yesterday and 14.66% higher than last week. What Does Changing Retail Sentiment Mean for Price Action? What is your view on the British Pound – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/british-pound-latest-gbp-usd-consolidates-after-latest-surge-higher-20231129.html

2023-11-29 10:27

FTSE 100, DAX 40, Russell 2000 - Analysis and Charts FTSE 100 remains under pressure The FTSE 100 slid to 7,402 on Tuesday despite stocks like Rolls-Royce rising by +6.2% after setting more ambitious targets for cash flow and return on capital by 2027. Together with the October-to-November uptrend channel support line at 7,400, Tuesday’s low offers support. A slip through it could lead to the early September and early October lows at 7,384 to 7,369 being reached, though. For the bulls to re-assert control, even on a short-term basis, a rise and daily chart close above Tuesday’s high at 7,465 needs to be seen. Further potential resistance can be found along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,502. FTSE100 Daily Chart Retail trader data shows 72.46% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.63 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.23% higher than yesterday and 11.06% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.07% lower than yesterday and 13.28% lower than last week. See How Daily and WeeklyChanges Affect Price Action DAX 40 trades back above the 16,000 mark The DAX 40 has risen back above the psychological 16,000 mark despite German consumer morale remaining weak ahead of Germany’s consumer price index, out on Wednesday.The August and September highs at 15,992 to 16,044 represent a short-term resistance zone. If exceeded, the early and mid-July highs at 16,187 to 16,211 would be next in line. Minor support is seen along the October-to-November uptrend line at 15,946 and at Tuesday’s 15,913 low. While it underpins, the steep medium-term uptrend remains intact. DAX 40 Daily Chart Russell 2000 still range trades below its 1,833 current November high The Russell 2000, the great underperformer of US stock indices with only a 2.4% positive performance year-to-date, has been trading in a tight sideways range below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the mid-November high at 1,818 to 1,833 for the past couple of weeks. While Thursday the 21 low at 1,767 underpins, the October-to-November uptrend remains intact. If slipped through, though, a drop towards the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1,752 may ensue. Immediate resistance can be seen at Fridays and the week before 1,811 to 1,813 highs. A rise above the current 1,833 November high would engage the mid-September high at 1,874. Russell 2000 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/while-the-ftse-100-and-russell-2000-struggle-the-dax-40-ploughs-ahead-20231129.html

2023-11-29 08:11

KIWI DOLLAR TALKING POINTS AND ANALYSIS Fed peak + RBNZ hawkishness supportive of NZD. All eyes shift to the US for the rest of the trading week. Technical signals point to downside to come. NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP “We're nervous that inflation has been outside the band for so long.” “The 10-year inflation expectation is creeping higher.” “We're concerned that longer-term inflation expectations are creeping up.” “Global rates do matter to us, we are very tuned into that outlook.” “We are saying that rates need to be this high for some time to come, banks should listen.” “We are not bound by policy meeting dates and can act on shocks if needed.” It is clear that money markets do not anticipate any additional rate hikes to come in 2024 but data dependency will be a key driver. If inflation data remains on its upward trajectory, the RBNZ may well take a decisive decision to tighten monetary policy once more. RBNZ INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES Source: Refinitiv The USD fell sharply yesterday after one of the Fed’s most prominent hawks, Fed’s Williams shifted to a less aggressive tone. Mr. Williams hinted at the possibility of no further rate hikes and rate cuts should inflation continue to fall. Implied Fed funds futures showed a dovish repricing of roughly 25bps of cumulative rate cuts by December 2024 with US Treasury yields extending their decline across the curve. Later today, US GDP, additional Fed speakers and the Fed’s beige book will come into focus ahead of tomorrow crucial core PCE print (Fed’s preferred measure of inflation). TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG Daily NZD/USD price action shows the recent upside pairing back off the 0.6200 psychological resistance handle as the pair moves into overbought territory on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Traditionally, markets will be looking for a pullback, particularly if the current candle closes with a long upper wick but if a further dovish bias is enforced, there may be room for more NZD strength. Short-term directional bias heavily depends on USD moves but from a technical analysis standpoint, I favor some NZD weakness. Key resistance levels: Trendline resistance 0.6200 Key support levels: 200-day moving average (blue) 0.6000 IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: BULLISH IGCS shows retail traders are currently LONG on AUD/USD, with 49% of traders currently holding long positions. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-nzd-usd-forecast-kiwi-soars-on-rbnz-governor-orr-wv-20231129.html

2023-11-29 01:30

GOLD PRICE, NASDAQ 100 OUTLOOK The Nasdaq 100 and gold prices have rallied in tandem this month, an unusual occurrence given their tendency to move in opposite directions Current market dynamics are becoming more positive for risk assets and precious metals alike This article looks at the technical outlook for gold and the Nasdaq 100, examining the key price levels worth keeping an eye on in the coming days Most Read: US Dollar in Tailspin, Price Action Setups on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD The Nasdaq 100 and gold will typically move in opposite direction given their inherent nature and characteristics: the tech equity index is perceived as a risk-on investment, while the precious metal is regarded as a defensive play. At times, however, both bullion and stocks will show a positive correlation if underlying market conditions temporarily align in their favor. This appears to be the current situation. For context, the Nasdaq 100 and gold prices have risen sharply in November, with the former surging nearly 11% and the latter rising around 3.80% since the beginning of the month. Their rally has been underpinned by falling U.S. Treasury yields and a dovish repricing of interest rate expectations, on the assumption that the Fed has finished its tightening campaign and will move into an easing cycle in 2024. While policymakers have attempted to keep the door open to additional hikes and pushed back against rate cut bets earlier this year, recent communication has taken a turn toward a slightly more dovish tone. Today for example, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, typically a hawkish voice, stated that he is "increasingly confident" that monetary policy is in the right place and that, if inflation continues to slow, rate cuts could be considered. The softer rhetoric may be a sign that the central bank is slowly preparing for a change in strategy, which could come in early 2024. We'll have more clues about the monetary policy outlook in the coming weeks when the FOMC holds its December meeting, so for now it's important to keep a close eye on Fedspeak, especially Chairman Powell's speech on Friday. Anything resembling a pivot would likely put further pressure on bond yields, giving the Nasdaq 100 and gold room to rally further heading into the end of the year. If you're looking for an in-depth analysis of U.S. equity indices, our Q4 stock market trading forecast is packed with great fundamental and technical insights. Get a free copy now! NASDAQ 100 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The Nasdaq 100 tested its July high last week and briefly breached it, but has been unable to closed past the 16,100 mark, with sellers defending this ceiling tooth and nail so far. With sentiment on the mend and market dynamics more positive, however, a bullish breakout could be just around the corner, meaning more gains could materialize heading into December. In the event of a breakout and a decisive move above the 16,100 zone, upward momentum could accelerate, setting the stage for a rally towards the 2021 highs just below 16,800. On further strength, the tech index could be headed for fresh records. Conversely, if prices reverse lower from current levels, initial support appears at 15,700, followed by 15,500. NASDAQ 100 TECHNICAL CHART Nasdaq 100 Chart Created Using TradingView Eager to gain insights into gold's future trajectory and the upcoming market drivers for volatility? Discover the answers in our complimentary Q4 trading guide. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices have rallied aggressively in recent days, blasting past multiple resistance thresholds, including $2,015 and $2,060. With bullish momentum on its side, a retest of May’s peak could come in the coming trading sessions. Successfully piloting above this ceiling could open the door for a move towards new highs above $2,100. On the other hand, if upward impetus wanes and XAU/USD pivots lower, support is located at $2,060, and $2,015/$2,010 thereafter. Prices might find stability in this zone during a pullback, but a clean breakdown could trigger a decline towards $1,980/$1,975. Further losses hereon out might redirect attention towards the 200-day simple moving average. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/nasdaq-100-gold-price-forecast-has-the-fed-greenlighted-a-santa-claus-rally-20231129.html

2023-11-28 21:30

USD/CAD PRICE, CHARTS AND ANALYSIS: USDCAD Gathers Downside Momentum Following Trendline Break. Time for a Retracement? A Weaker US Dollar and Higher WTI Kept the Loonie Supported. Key Data Events Ahead Could Shape USDCAD Price Action for the Rest of the Week. To Learn More About Price Action,Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Series. Read More: The Bank of Canada: A Trader’s Guide USDCAD Continues its slide today helped by a weaker US Dollar and a rebound in Oil prices. Having broken the ascending trendline on Friday the selloff has gathered a bit more momentum but faces some technical hurdles ahead. Despite more uncertainty from OPEC+ today Oil prices did bounce just below the $75 a barrel mark. WTI was up around 1.9% at the time of writing which is bit surprising given rumors today that OPEC+ is still having disagreements regarding quotas for 2024. The rumors also stated a potential delay of this week’s virtual meeting and the potential for output and supply to remain steady in 2024. Time will tell. GDP DATA, FED SPEAKERS AND CANADIAN EMPLOYMENT DATA Unlike many pairs this week USDCAD faces a host of risk events which could impact price action moving forward. Today however was largely dominated by comments from Federal Reserve policymakers with a largely dovish tone. Market expectations added an extra 5bps of rate cuts in 2024 as a result with comments from Policymaker Waller who stated, ‘there's good economic arguments that if inflation continues falling for several more months, you could lower policy rate.’ There was the odd hawkish comment as well with known hawk Michelle Bowman citing concerns around services consumption and whether or not supply-side advances will curb inflation. The Dollar Index (DXY) hit its lowest level since August and breaking below a key support area. As US Yields, the 2 and 10 year in particular continuing to slide keeping the Dollar subdued as well. Tomorrow brings the 2nd estimate of Q3 US GDP which could stoke volatility but only if there is some revision to the 1st estimate. More importantly for USDCAD however, could be Canadian GDP and employment data released on Thursday and Friday respectively. I will also be keeping an eye of Federal Reserve Policymakers who are scheduled to speak later this week. After the move we saw today it would be remiss to ignore the impact these comments could have. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD USDCAD finally broke the ascending trendline which had been in play since July. Having broken the trendline Monday did present a retest opportunity before a further selloff today bringing USDCAD within touching distance of the 100-day MA. There is the possibility of retracement from here before resuming its move to the downside and the 1.3500 psychological level. If price is able to break above the psychological level then support rests at 1.3450 and 1.3370 respectively. As mentioned, a push higher from here faces resistance around the 1.3640 area and just above we have the 50-day MA resting at the 1.3680 handle. Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Support levels: 1.3550 1.3500 1.3450 Resistance levels: 1.3640 1.3680 1.3720 USD/CAD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Zain Vawda IG CLIENT SENTIMENT Taking a look at the IG client sentiment data and we can see that retail traders are committed to neither LONGS or SHORTS with 50% of Traders holding both BUYS and SELLS. A sign that a retracement may be incoming or just caution ahead of the data releases? For Tips and Tricks on How to use Client Sentiment Data, Get Your Free Guide Below https://www.dailyfx.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-trendline-break-to-facilitate-a-test-of-1-3500-support-20231128.html

2023-11-28 19:30

US DOLLAR FORECAST – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD The U.S. dollar extends losses, sinking to its weakest point since early August Meanwhile, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD break out to the topside, clearing key price levels in the process This article focuses on the technical outlook for top forex pairs Most Read: US Dollar Outlook - PCE, Powell to Set Market Tone, Setups on EUR/USD, USD/JPY The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, retreated for a fourth straight trading session on Tuesday, settling below the 103.00 threshold and hitting its lowest level since early August, pressured by a pullback in U.S. Treasury yields. In recent days, U.S. interest rate expectations have shifted in a more dovish direction on bets that the FOMC has finished hiking borrowing costs and will move to ease its stance next year. This sentiment gained momentum today after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, typically a hawkish voice, stated that he is "increasingly confident" that monetary policy is in the right place and that, if inflation continues to slow, rate cuts could be considered. Against this backdrop, the euro, British pound, and Australian dollar posted solid gains against the greenback, with their exchange rates breaching key levels in the process. In this article, we analyze the technical outlook for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD, taking into account market sentiment, price action dynamics and chart formations. Unsure about the U.S. dollar's trend? Gain clarity with our Q4 forecast. Request your complimentary guide today! EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD extended its advance on Tuesday, clearing Fibonacci resistance at 1.0960 and rising to its best mark in more than three months. If the pair holds onto recent gains and establishes a support base near 1.0960, there's a possibility of an upward push towards 1.1080 following a period of consolidation. Should bullish momentum persist, attention could turn to the 2023 highs near 1.1275. In case of a downward shift from current levels, it is imperative to closely monitor price action around 1.0960, bearing in mind that a breach of this technical zone could send the exchange rate towards 1.0840. On further weakness, we could witness a retreat towards the 200-day simple moving average, located slightly above confluence support near 1.0760. For a comprehensive assessment of the euro’s medium-term technical and fundamental outlook, request a free copy of our latest forecast! EUR/USD TECHNICAL CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView GBP/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD has been on a bullish tear in November, rising nearly 4.5% since the beginning of the month. After Tuesday's gains, the pair has reached its best level since late August, but has been unable to reclaim the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July/October slump (1.2720). If this ceiling holds, the upside momentum could run out of steam, paving the way for a drop towards 1.2590, followed by 1.2460. In the event of a clear break above 1.2720, sentiment on sterling is likely to improve, unleashing animal spirits that could propel a potential upward move towards 1.2850. On further strength, buying interest could accelerate, opening the door to a climb toward the 1.3000 handle. Although the bullish case for GBP/USD is strong, it is important to exercise caution as the pair is about to enter overbought territory. GBP/USD TECHNICAL CHART GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView Curious about what's on the horizon for the Australian dollar? Get all the answers in our quarterly forecast! AUD/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD jumped on Tuesday, breaching a key technical ceiling in the 0.6600-06620 band and reaching its strongest level in nearly four months. The bulls have been burned on several occasions by fakeouts in the pair, so caution is warranted after the latest rally, but if this week's breakout holds, attention might pivot toward trendline resistance at 0.6675. Higher, the focus will be on 0.6800. Conversely, if profit-taking among bullish traders leads to a price reversal, support appears in the 0.6620/0.6600 area. If this floor caves in, we could see a retracement towards the 200-day simple moving average, potentially followed by a retest of the 0.6525 region. Vigorous defense of this support zone is crucial for the bulls, as a breakdown could trigger a pullback towards 0.6460. AUD/USD TECHNICAL CHART AUD/USD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-in-tailspin-price-action-setups-on-eur-usd-gbp-usd-and-aud-usd-20231128.html