2023-11-28 17:46

BITCOIN, CRYPTO KEY POINTS: Bitcoin Trades Just Above the $38k Mark. Are We Finally Going to Print a Daily Close Above the Resistance Level with an Eye on the $40k Handle? Binance Users Pull $1 Billion Following the Exit of CEO Changpeng Zhao. BNB Token Struggles and Hovers Near Recent Lows. Can the Exchange Survive Moving Forward? To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Series. READ MORE: Crypto Forecast: Will Bitcoin Have What it Takes to Break the $38k Mark? Bitcoin continues to threaten the $38k mark but remains unable to find acceptance above the key level. The reason the world’s largest cryptocurrency has held onto its gains may have to do with an increase in capital inflow from institutional investors over the past week, per a report by CoinShares. There has also been a notable surge in demand for digital assets of late with the past week being the 9th consecutive week of positive inflows to the market. A lot of this could still be down to anticipation of the spot Bitcoin ETF and the halving event next year. Bitcoin in particular saw inflows of around $312 million over the past week with the yearly total now at around the $1.5 billion mark as investor confidence appears to be on the rise. There has also been a notable shift over the last 18 months with the number of Hodlers growing exponentially as well. Source: TradingView BINANCE FACES CLIENT EXODUS FOLLOWING ZHAO’S EXIT It’s been a topsy turvy couple of days for Binance as it continues to grapple with the fallout from exit of former CEO Changpeng Zhao. This has left the world of crypto exchanges reeling even if Cryptocurrencies themselves have enjoyed a renaissance in Q4. Binance faced questions last week about its ability to continue given the size of the fines imposed on the exchange which totaled $4.3 billion. As news filtered through the exchange saw outflows of around the $1 billion mark in the 24 hours post Zhao’s departure being announced. If this continues it could pose a serious risk to the exchange and may be worth monitoring in the days ahead. The BNB token as well faced challenges in the aftermath as it fell as much as 8% following Zhao’s announcement. The exchange has also lost a significant amount of market share from zero-fee crypto trading since the removal of this lucrative incentive. Binance does not face the same charges as FTX but are we about to witness another titan of the industry disappear into the doldrums? BNB Daily Chart, November 28, 2023 Source: TradingView RISK EVENTS AHEAD There remains some risk from a USD perspective this week which could impact the US Dollar and thus Bitcoin. We witnessed a bit of that today with Fed policymakers' comments received as a tad dovish today which has seen the US Dollar selloff gain further traction. Market participants appeared buoyed by comments from Fed Policymaker Waller in particular who stated that “If inflation consistently declines, there is no reason to insist that rates remain really high.” If market continue to perceive Fed comments and US data in a dovish light this week and the US Dollar selloff continues this could help Bitcoin achieve a clean break above the $38k mark. READ MORE: HOW TO USE TWITTER FOR TRADERS BITCOIN TECHNICAL OUTLOOK AND FINAL THOUGHTS From a technical standpoint BTCUSD is interesting as it hovers just below the $38k mark. Nothing much has changed from a technical standpoint from my article last week (link at the top of the article). The 38000 mark remains a stumbling block to further upside and I fear the longer we stall at this level the greater the likelihood for a selloff becomes. Resistance levels: 38000 40000 42500 Support levels: 36200 35500-35200 34177 BTCUSD Daily Chart, November 28, 2023. Source: TradingView, chart prepared by Zain Vawda https://www.dailyfx.com/news/bitcoin-btc-usd-holds-the-high-ground-as-binance-deals-with-client-exodus-20231128.html

2023-11-28 16:20

USD/JPY News and Analysis Japanese gauge of widespread inflation rises at its fastest pace since 2001 USD/JPY heads lower as the dollar slides further JPY remains heavily net-short (large speculators) but not as short as last week The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Japanese gauge of widespread inflation rises at its fastest pace since 2001 The weighted median inflation rate is often looked at as a yardstick for widespread price pressures and the data point has build on September’s rise. The rate came in at 2.2% in October, up from 2.0% for September as price pressures appear to becoming more entrenched within the Japanese economy. Wage growth as well as expectations of higher wages has been on the up since January of this year when firms offered the biggest pay hike in the last 30 years and increases were observed across a broad range of industries too. Higher salary costs and input prices motivate companies to pass on the higher costs to consumers who then negotiate better pay packages and so on. The cycle is likely to provide the Bank of Japan with a big decision to make regarding stepping back from a prolonged period of ultra-low interest rates. Kazuo Ueda has also recently stated he is not convinced that inflation will sustainably breach the 2% target but there are still more data points to consider before Q1 next year – a time frame revealed during consultations with the bank. Initially it was thought the BoJ would have enough data on hand to make a decision at the end of this year, but the timeframe appears to have been dragged out by three months. USD/JPY Heads Lower as the Dollar Slides Further Reversing lower ever since testing the 50-day simple moving average, USD/JPY continues to move to the downside, mainly due to a weaker US dollar. A number of Fed speakers provided their thoughts on policy and inflation with the Fed’s Waller noted cooling in consumer spending as well as manufacturing and services activity. In addition, he acknowledged that policy is well positioned to slow the economy – letting off more steam for the greenback as markets grow in confidence that the Fed has come to the end of the rate hiking cycle. Support lies at the recent swing low of 147.150 and then 146.50, followed by 145 flat. Resistance remains at the 50 SMA and thereafter the 150 mark. The threat of FX intervention has cooled substantially ever since the pair responded in accordance with a weaker dollar, something that was absent at the start of the dollar decline. USD/JPY Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow ‘Smart money’ remains heavily net-short on the yen, a position that may lose support if the bearish move extends. Speculative Positioning from the most recent CoT data Source: Refinitiv, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/usd-jpy-update-gauge-of-widespread-inflation-hits-2001-levels-20231128.html

2023-11-28 14:28

GOLD OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS Falling real yields make gold more attractive to investors. US economy in focus later today. Bearish/negative divergence on daily gold chart could bring bears back into the picture. XAU/USD FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP Gold prices have been strengthening largely on the back of the bearish narrative associated with the US dollar in 2024. Markets have been swiftly ticking higher but may be slightly impatient. Although the implied Fed funds futures (see table below) suggests roughly 85bps of cumulative interest rate cuts by December 2024, the Fed along with other central banks have been rather cautious in their language and highly data dependent which could easily sway forecasts should economic data oppose the current trend. IMPLIED FED FUNDS FUTURES Source: Refinitiv Falling US Treasury yields have been a key contributor (corresponding with lower real yields) to golds bullish move and after yesterday’s underwhelming US bond auction that sees the 2-year extending its downside while the 10-year Treasury yield stays depressed. US REAL YIELDS (10-YEAR) Source: Refinitiv Source: DailyFX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GOLD PRICE DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, TradingView Daily XAU/USD price action stays firm above the $2000.00 support psychological handle but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) emits a worrying sign for bulls as the lower highs could indicate bearish/negative divergence to come short-term. Gold bulls may be excited at the prospect of a converging 50 and 200-day moving average that could unravel into a golden cross formation. Resistance levels: 2081.82 2048.79 Support levels: 2000.00 1987.42 1950.00 GOLD IG CLIENT SENTIMENT: BULLISH https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-xau-usd-price-forecast-are-gold-prices-jumping-the-gun-wv-20231128.html

2023-11-28 13:04

Oil Analysis, Prices, and Charts The virtual OPEC+ meeting starts on Thursday and may prove fractious. Oil prices are set to tread water ahead of any announcements. The oil market may see a further bout of volatility going into the end of the week as OPEC+ members lay out their arguments for 2024 production quotas. Any further production cuts would underpin the price of oil and likely see prices move higher, while any increase in production would weigh further on oil and press the price further lower. OPEC+ will have a difficult task balancing various members' wishes and this week’s meeting will leave some members unhappy with the outcome, further adding to market unrest. The technical outlook for US oil remains negative with the current spot price closing in on another multi-month low. Spot US oil is now below all three simple moving averages, having made a confirmed break below the 200-dsma last week, and there is little in the way of any substantial support ahead of $70.35/bbl. (7.6% Fibonacci retracement) and then the $67/bbl. area. For oil to move higher, the 61.8% Fib retracement at $75.68/bbl. needs to turn into support before the 200-dsma at $78/bbl. comes into focus. Oil Daily Price Chart – November 28, 2023 Chart via TradingView IG Retail Trader data shows 82.64% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 4.76 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 0.28% higher than yesterday and 7.08% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.93% lower than yesterday and 17.23% lower than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggestsOil- US Crude prices may continue to fall. What is your view on Oil – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/oil-latest-traders-on-the-sidelines-as-opec-meeting-nears-20231128.html

2023-11-28 11:40

EUR/USD Analysis EUR/USD finds resistance at significant Fibonacci level – EU and US inflation data to guide shorter-term price action later in the week Disinflation in Europe could lead the way for developed economies The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library EUR/USD Finds Temporary Resistance Ahead of High Importance Data EUR/USD is currently testing the 21 November high and continues to trade above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The bullish run may face another test in the form of US GDP data (second estimate) later this week after estimates point to an even hotter Q3 performance from the world’s largest economy – potentially weighing on the recent bullish EUR/USD momentum. Better than expected EU inflation data (lower than forecasts) could also provide a catalyst for a pullback alongside other signs of slowing momentum provided by the RSI about to enter overbought territory and the MACD heading for a bearish crossover. However, it must be noted that neither of these conditions have been met yet and in that case, levels to the upside remain in play. Resistance at 1.0960 followed all the way up at 1.1100 with little in between. Support is at 1.0831 and the 200 SMA. EUR/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Event Risk for the Remainder of the Week US GDP for the third quarter is due for its second estimate after the advance figure revealed a massive 4.9% annualised growth rate for the US economy. Despite economic data easing in Q4, it appears the gains made in Q3 will be ringfenced as consensus estimates reveal a slightly larger 5% estimate as more data has filtered through. EUR/USD may find temporary resistance should we see an upward revision but expect the consolidation to be short-lived as more current (weaker) data provides a more accurate indication of the economy. EU inflation data for November is estimated to reveal another encouraging drop for November, both in the headline measure and the core readings (inflation minus volatile energy and food prices). The chart below hints that the European Union could witness the fastest decline in inflation when compared to other developed nations. Producer price inflation measures upstream price trends at factory gates which eventually filter down into the broader economy with a lag of around 6 months. PPI is heavily negative (deflationary), suggesting more widely followed measures of inflation are likely to follow soon which would force the ECB to seriously consider cutting interest rates in an attempt to revitalise the anaemic economy. Longer-term, such an outcome would result in a weaker euro as interest rate differentials widen. EU Inflation (headline HICP inflation, core HICP inflation and PPI) Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/eur-usd-price-outlook-high-impact-eu-us-inflation-data-to-guide-price-action-20231128.html

2023-11-28 10:09

Article by IG Chief Market Analyst Chris Beauchamp Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, Nikkei 225 - Analysis and Charts Dow rally sees slower going The rally has slowed in recent days, though sellers have been unable to establish control even in the short-term timeframes.Further gains continue to target the summer 2023 highs above 35,600, while beyond this the 2022 peaks at 35,860 become the next target. There is little sign of any retracement as yet, though a close below 35,000 and the August/September highs might put some short-term pressure on the index. Dow Jones Daily Chart Nasdaq 100 reaches 16,000 For the moment momentum has stalled at 16,000, with the index edging back from last week’s highs.A bigger correction has yet to develop, though a pullback towards 15,500 could easily be envisaged. A close back below the October highs of around 15,330 might signal a more substantial drop in the short term. Fresh upside above 16,000 would take the index back towards the record highs of late 2021 and early 2022 at 16,630, and complete a remarkable recovery for the tech index. Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart Nikkei 225 slips back towards August highs Here too the forward momentum of recent weeks has dissipated for the time being, and a move back below the August and September highs around 35,200 seems likely.Last week the index found support at 33,120, so a drop back below this might signal some additional short-term weakness is likely. A renewed move higher targets the June highs at 34,015, with a close above this level taking the price on towards the 1989 highs at 39,000. Nikkei 225 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/dow-nasdaq-100-and-nikkei-225-see-bullish-momentum-fade-after-month-long-surge-20231128.html