2023-11-28 07:46

AUD/USD ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS Australian retail sales figures show high interest rate environment may be weighing negatively on consumers. US economic data and Fed speakers under the spotlight later today. AUD/USD 200-day MA break could expose long-term trendline resistance once more. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP “We're in a period where we have to be a bit careful.” “I want to avoid imposing too much and pushing up the jobless.” “We need to ensure that inflation expectations stay anchored.” “Monetary policy is restrictive and is dampening demand.” The PBoC’s Governor Pan on the other may have aided the pro-growth AUD by stating that monetary policy will remain accommodative. That being said, RBA money market pricing (see table below) shows an additional interest rate hike is still on the cards thus highlighting data dependency to come. RBA INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES Source: Refinitiv From a US perspective, yesterday’s bond auctions saw the 2, 5 and 10-year yields fall thus making the sale less desirable for investors. The 2-year Treasury yield stays depressed this morning and has supported the AUD against the muted greenback. Fed rate cut expectations are rising and the bearish 2024 outlook for the USD is gaining traction. Traders should not buy into this too soon and looking at the AUD/USD pair in particular, there may well be another dollar pullback this year. The trading day ahead will be US focused with CB consumer confidence set to decline while Fed officials will shed more light on the broader Fed picture. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, TradingView AUD/USD daily price action illustrates the recent key break above the 200-day moving average (blue) resistance region, now pushing up against the 0.6596 swing high. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI). nearing overbought territory, there is still room for more upside that may coincide with the long-term trendline resistance zone (black) before a pullback. However the current daily candle is forming a long upper wick and should the daily close remain so, there could be AUD downside sooner. 0.6700 Trendline resistance 0.6596 Key support levels: 200-day MA 0.6500 0.6459 50-day MA 0.6358 IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: BULLISH (AUD/USD) IGCS shows retail traders are currently net LONG on AUD/USD, with 55% of traders currently holding long positions. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-aud-price-forecast-aussie-dollar-snubs-poor-retails-sales-data-wv-20231128.html

2023-11-27 23:00

GOLD PRICE (XAU/USD), AUD/USD FORECAST: Gold prices climb and challenge technical resistance on the back of falling U.S. yields and U.S. dollar softness AUD/USD also pushes higher, breaking above its 200-day simple moving average This article looks at key technical levels to watch on XAU/USD and AUD/USD this week Most Read: US Dollar Forecast - PCE, Powell to Set Market Tone, Setups on EUR/USD, USD/JPY GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices climbed on Monday, buoyed by the drop in U.S. yields and the U.S. dollar’s softness. With recent performance in mind, XAU/USD has risen more than 8% since October, firmly eclipsing its 200-day simple moving average and ascending beyond the psychological $2,000 level – two technical signals that have strengthened the metal’s constructive bias. For stronger conviction in the bullish thesis and to validate the potential for further upward momentum, a clear and decisive move above $2,010/$2,015 is required – a major resistance zone that has consistently thwarted advances since the beginning of the year. While clearing this hurdle might pose a challenge for bulls, a breakout could catalyze a rally towards $2,060, followed by $2,085, May’s high. In the event that gold gets rejected to the downside from its current position, the asset might trend towards support spanning from $1,980 to $1,975. Prices could potentially stabilize in this area on a bearish reversal, but a push below this floor could lead to a retreat towards the 200-day simple moving average situated around the $1,950 mark. Beneath this threshold, attention might refocus on $1,937. Acquire the knowledge needed for maintaining trading consistency. Grab your "How to Trade Gold" guide for invaluable insights and tips! GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView AUD/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD trekked upwards at the start of the new week, climbing above its 200-day simple moving average and coming within a whisker of taking out technical resistance located in the 0.6600-0.6620 band. With the RSI indicator approaching overbought territory, the recent rally could soon run out of steam, but a move above 0.6600-0.6620 could breathe new life into the pair and reinvigorate the bulls, propelling prices towards trendline resistance at 0.6670. On further strength, we may see a move towards 0.6815. On the other hand, if market sentiment shifts in favor of sellers and AUD/USD takes a turn to the downside, primary support looms at 0.6525, but further losses could be in store on a push below this threshold, with the next downside target corresponding to the 100-day simple moving average, followed by 0.6460. It is of utmost importance for the bulls to robustly defend this floor; any failure to do so could catalyze a pullback towards 0.6395. If you're wondering what’s in store for the Australian dollar in the coming months, grab a free copy of the Aussie’s fundamental and technical trading guide. AUD/USD TECHNICAL CHART AUD/USD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/xau-usd-gold-prices-defy-pivotal-technical-resistance-as-aud-usd-eyes-bullish-breakout-20231127.html

2023-11-27 21:00

GBP PRICE, CHARTS AND ANALYSIS: GBP Faces a Massive Day Tomorrow Following the Fed Decision and BoE Meeting Ahead. Will the Hawks or Doves Prevail? EUR/GBP Breaks Range as GBP/AUD Looks to Follow Suit. Cable in No Mans Land as BoE Meeting Likely to Provide Direction for the Rest of the Month. To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. Read More: Fed Stays Put, Sees Three Rate Cuts in 2024; Gold Prices Soar as Yields Plunge BANK OF ENGLAND (BoE) FACE TOUGH TASK FOLLOWING GDP DATA UK GDP data released today underwhelmed as the UK economy shrank by 0.3% for the month of October. Having avoided a contraction during the July-September period it appears the luck has finally run out. The July- September period largely coincided with the UK summer which could in part explain the GDP number posted. The increase in visitors and travel by UK residents largely playing an important part in avoiding a contraction. Following today’s data UK interest rate swaps were fully pricing in 4 cuts of 25bps each in 2024. The data today only emboldened market participants hope of rate cuts following softer wage growth reported earlier this week. Inflation in the UK remains slightly more stubborn particularly in the services sector which remains sticky. Taking that into account market participants are expecting the BoE to begin rate cuts later than its peers but expect them to be more aggressive. As it stands market participants are expecting the ECB to begin rate cuts in May while the BoE is expected to begin in June. At present it just seems that the UK is seeing a slower drop-off in inflation exactly the same problem the country faced when inflation was on its way up. The best example being energy prices which rose more slowly in the UK due to regulations but the same seems to be happening now that energy prices are on their way down. Food prices tell a similar story. The GBP is likely to face selling pressure moving forward and could struggle in the weeks ahead as the UK faces a few more challenges than its peers. Tomorrow we will hear from the Bank of England, and it will be interesting to gauge where the BoE stand in comparison to the Federal Reserve who predict 75bps of rate cuts in 2024. PRICE ACTION AND POTENTIAL SETUPS EURGBP EUR/GBP Daily Chart Source: TradingView, Prepared by Zain Vawda From a technical perspective, EURGBP broke the range it had been caught in for 7 trading days. I did write about a breakout in my previous GBP Price Action piece last week where did mention a daily candle close above the range will see an accelerated move toward the MAs providing resistance around the 0.8630-0.8640 handles. There is also the 200-day MA which rests at the 0.8660 area. There is a lot of resistance all the way up to 0.8720 area and this could prove a tough nut to crack for GBP bulls. GBPAUD GBPAUD has been rangebound since the Middle of September but is attempting a break below the range today. We have had two previous attempts to break lower with a daily candle close below opening up a larger move to the downside. The next key support area rests around the 1.8500 handle which is 400-odd pips away. If price does fail to close below today it could still do so tomorrow following the BoE meeting. The 200-day MA will provide resistance as it rests just above the 1.9000 handle while another hurdle rests at the 1.9110 mark. Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Support levels: 1.8850 1.8500 1.8250 Resistance levels: 1.9000 1.9110 1.9210 GBP/AUD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, Prepared by Zain Vawda GBPUSD GBPUSD bounced of a key confluence area today and helped by and large with the Fed confession that 75bps of cuts may arrive in 2024. This saw a huge selloff in the US Dollar in the aftermath as market participants once again appear to be going above and beyond. Markets are anticipating more aggressive cuts than that which the Fed are currently anticipating with Fed swaps pricing in as much as 140bps of cuts. This pushed GBPUSD back above the 1.2600 level and on course for a massive hammer candlestick close. Key resistance rests just above at the 1.2680 handle and it will be interesting to gauge the market reaction and comments by the BoE tomorrow. I expect a huge selloff in the GBP should the BoE adopt a more dovish tone at tomorrow's meeting which cannot be ruled out given the recent batch of data. Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Support levels: 1.2590 1.2500 1.2453 Resistance levels: 1.2680 1.2848 1.3000 GBP/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, Prepared by Zain Vawda IG CLIENT SENTIMENT IG Client Sentiment data tells us that 52% of Traders are currently holding SHORT positions. This is just a sign of the indecision following today's bullish move and what the BoE might deliver tomorrow. Will the Bulls or Bears seize control? https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gbp-price-action-setups-gbp-usd-eur-gbp-gbp-aud-20231213.html

2023-11-27 19:30

US DOLLAR OUTLOOK – EUR/USD & USD/JPY The broader U.S. dollar was flat on Monday, but volatility could pick up in the coming trading sessions, with several high-impact events on the calendar The focus will be on U.S. PCE data, ISM manufacturing results and Powell's public appearance later in the week This article explores the technical outlook for EUR/USD and USD/JPY, analyzing price action dynamics and the key levels to monitor in the days ahead Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) Continue to Rally as Buyers Take Charge The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, was largely flat on Monday, oscillating between small gains and losses around the 103.45 mark. Despite this stability, we are likely to see increased volatility later in the week, with high-impact events on the calendar, including the release of PCE data, ISM PMI, and a public speech by Fed Chair Powell. The consensus view among traders is that the FOMC has concluded its tightening campaign after the last quarter-point hike in July, so the focus has shifted to the easing cycle that is likely to get underway in 2024. To bolster confidence in potential rate cuts, incoming data needs to cooperate by demonstrating a decline in price pressures and a slowdown in economic activity. We will be able to better assess the economic outlook on Thursday when BEA releases its latest report on personal income and outlays. In terms of expectations, October's personal spending is forecast to have risen 0.2% m/m, a significant slowdown from September's 0.7% jump. Meanwhile, core PCE, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, is seen climbing 0.2% m/m, bringing the annual rate to 3.5% from 3.7% previously. Will the U.S. dollar reverse higher or extend its downward correction? Get all the answers in our Q4 forecast. Request a complimentary copy now! US INCOMING DATA A day later, the Institute for Supply Management will unveil November manufacturing activity figures. Consensus estimates call for a slight increase in factory output to 47.6 from 46.7 in the prior period. Despite this uptick, the goods-producing sector is expected to remain stuck in a recessionary environment, characteristic of any reading below the 50.0 threshold. In the grand scheme of things, any data indicating softer inflationary forces and a slowdown in growth might exert downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, potentially prompting a dovish repricing of interest rate estimations. Conversely, higher-than-anticipated core PCE and economic activity could be supportive of the greenback by bolstering Treasury yields and pushing back expectations of rate cuts. Last but not least, Friday features a noteworthy event with Fed Chair Powell's fireside chat at Spelman College in Atlanta, Georgia. It's crucial for traders to focus on his statements regarding the central bank's forthcoming decisions, recognizing that any hint of hawkishness could fuel a rally in the U.S. currency. EUR/USD FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD has rallied nearly 3.5% this month, coming within striking distance from breaching resistance at 1.0956, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July/October slump. While bulls may have a hard time pushing prices above this barrier decisively, given the euro’s overbought state, a breakout could pave the way for a rally towards 1.1080, followed by 1.1275, the 2023 peak. In the event of a downward reversal from current levels, EUR/USD could head towards a key floor at 1.0840. The pair is likely to bottom out in this area on a pullback, but a breakdown could open the door to a retest of the 200-day simple moving average hovering slightly above confluence support around 1.0760. On further weakness, the exchange rate may gravitate towards its 50-day SMA near 1.0665. EUR/USD TECHNICAL CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView Interested in learning how retail positioning can shape the short-term trajectory of USD/JPY? Our sentiment guide discusses the role of crowd mentality in FX markets. Get the guide now! USD/JPY FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY charged higher late last week after a pronounced sell-off on Monday, but stalled at resistance near the 50-day simple moving average and has started to retrench, with the pair trading below the 149.00 level at the time of writing. If losses intensify in the coming sessions, initial support is seen near 147.25. Below this zone, the focus shifts to the 100-day SMA, followed by the 146.00 handle. On the other hand, if USD/JPY resumes its advance, overhead resistance is positioned at 149.70. Upside clearance of this technical ceiling could rekindle bullish momentum, setting the right conditions for a rally towards 150.90. On further strength, buyers could be emboldened to launch an attack on this year’s highs around the psychological 152.00 level. USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-forecast-pce-powell-to-set-market-tone-setups-on-eur-usd-usd-jpy-20231127.html

2023-11-27 18:00

SP 500 & NAS100 PRICE FORECAST: Black Friday and Cyber Monday Keeps Retail Sector Upbeat. Asset Managers Upgrade Forecast for the S&P to 5000 for the End of the Year. NAS100 in Overbought Territory but a Retracement May Need a Catalyst. To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) Hold the High Ground as Oil Prices Eye a Recovery US Indices have started the week on a tepid and slightly cautious note. Cyber Monday would appear to be a big hit if early estimates are to be believed and this has kept the retail sector in the spotlight this morning with Amazon (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT) leading the way, up 1.0% and 0.4% respectively. Source: LSEG The Retail sector has enjoyed an excellent 2023 thus far, evidenced by the chart above. The retail sector with gains of around 34% while the entire S&P Index up around 19%. Market expectations for Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales are around the $12-$12.4 billion dollar mark. There is a risk that should these numbers miss estimates a selloff (most probably short-term in nature could materialize and maybe something worth monitoring in the days ahead. Looking at the heatmap for the SPX today and you can see it hasn’t been the best one so far. Quite a bit of red and grey tiles as opposed to green with the Tech sector also relatively calm today fluctuating between small losses and gains for the most part. Source: TradingView US DATA, EARNINGS AND FED SPEAKERS TO DRIVE MARKET SENTIMENT Markets have been on a tear since optimism around the Federal Reserve being done with its hiking cycle grew. Markets will continue to wait on further cues regarding Fed policy with a key Fed inflation gauge and a host of policymaker scheduled to speak this week. All of which may have an effect on sentiment and result in changes in the probability of rate cuts in 2024. This would have a knock-on effect on US Indices as the SPX eyes a fresh YTD high above the 4600 mark. There is also quite abit on the earnings calendar this week with ZScaler reporting today followed by Crowdstrike, Synopses and Salesforce which could also have varying levels of impact on US indices. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK AND FINAL THOUGHTS NASDAQ 100 As mentioned earlier the Nasdaq has enjoyed 4 successive weeks of gains and has already printed a new YTD high, crossing above the 16000 mark. The RIS is hovering around overbought territory and given the recent choppy price action since crossing the 16000 threshold, could a retracement be on its way? I will be keeping my eyes on a potential pullback as market participants might look to do some profit taking during the course of the week. For now, though immediate support rests at the previous YTD high at 15950 before the 15800 area comes into focus. A break lower than that will bring the 20-day MA and key support area into play around the 15500 and 15300 levels respectively. An upside continuation does not provide enough historical price action but there is some resistance around the 16150, 16320 and 16700 areas respectively. If price is to reach those highs the reaction should be intriguing. NAS100 November 27, 2023 Source: TradingView, Chart Prepared by Zain Vawda S&P 500 The SPX has had a similar run as the NAS100, however it has fallen short of printing a fresh YTD high. The 4600 mark remains a strong hurdle that needs to be crossed and would also signal a fresh YTD high should the SPX push beyond. There have been renewed updates over the past two weeks with many asset managers seeing the SPX ending they year around the 5000 mark. For this to materialize I believe we may need to see a slightly more dovish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve at the upcoming December meeting. This could materialize following the recent US inflation data and the PCE print this week may provide a further nod in that direction. We also heard positive comments earlier today from White House Spokeswoman Jean-Pierre who stated that the US is seeing lower prices on items from fuel to food which should delight both the Fed and US consumers. The technical picture looks promising for bullish continuation based on price action and technical signals such as the recent golden cross pattern. However, we may see a pullback ahead of PCE data later this week as market participants may eye taking profit ahead of the release. Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Support levels: 4500 4460 4400 Resistance levels: 4600 4640 4700 S&P 500 November 27, 2023 Source: TradingView, Chart Prepared by Zain Vawda https://www.dailyfx.com/news/s-p-500-nas-100-make-a-tepid-start-to-the-week-where-to-next-20231127.html

2023-11-27 16:41

Oil (Brent, WTI) News and Analysis Delayed OPEC+ meeting to take place on Thursday at 13:00 GMT – individual quotas and supply cuts remain central to the meeting Brent crude prices head lower after notable rejection at the intersection of the crucial $82 level and the 200 SMA WTI flat ahead of OPEC meeting but the potential for a bullish surprise depends on OPEC cuts The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Delayed OPEC Meeting Set for Thursday as Quota Agreement Nears Last Wednesday, Brent crude oil was particularly volatile after news of OPEC’s decision to delay their meeting to Thursday this week hit the news wires. Since then, sources have pointed to a difference of opinion in the output levels being discussed for countries that have frequently fallen short of existing output quotas, namely Angola, Nigeria. The graphic below highlights the difficulty faced by African countries in reaching its output targets due to a lack of infrastructure investment and capacity challenges. OPEC + will begin their meeting at 13:00 GMT on Thursday and the cabal is currently weighing up the option to extend supply cuts into 2024 and reports are even suggesting more aggressive supply cuts given weaker oil prices. OPEC has to navigate the negative effect of the global growth slowdown, mainly expectations of lower future demand and increasing non-OPEC supply (US) weighing on oil prices. The 4-day ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has been mostly positive and talks about an extended truce continue subject to the release of more hostages. OPEC denied requests from Iran to issue an oil embargo on Israel and the war appears to have had minimal impact on recent oil prices. Source: S&P Global, PLATTS Brent crude oil tested the zone of resistance around the significant $82 level after Wednesday’s increased volatility after the announcement to postpone the November OPEC meeting. The zone comprised of the $82 level which has proved to be a pivot point numerous times in the past and the 200 day simple moving average (SMA). Should bearish momentum pick up from here, there is little to get in the way of the decline, technically. Of course, should OPEC ramp up its supply cuts, this could jolt oil markets higher as markets adjust to a world of lower oil supply. Resistance remains at $82 with a light level of support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $77 – the 50% retracement is generally less significant. Thereafter, support appears all the way at $71.50. Oil (Brent Crude) Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow WTI observed a similar path for price action – rejecting a move above the 200 SMA and trading lower ahead of the OPEC meeting. Before the intra-day bullish reversal on Wednesday, the commodity was on track to produce an ‘evening star’ – typically a bearish pattern. Price action continues to head lower, after trading below the 200 SMA and the significant level of 77.40. Support appears at $72.50. Oil (WTI) Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/brent-wti-oil-prices-await-opec-supply-cut-quotas-for-2024-20231127.html