2023-11-27 14:52

GBP/USD Analysis and Charts BoE governor Bailey warns on UK inflation and growth. Sterling remains underpinned as rate cut hopes are pushed back. Most Read: British Pound Latest - GBP/USD Boosted by Positive PMI Data Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey today warned that getting inflation back down to target (2%) will be difficult and take time and that the current restrictive policy is hurting economic growth. In an interview with ChronicleLive, Mr. Bailey warned that if the central bank doesn’t get inflation down to target, ‘it gets worse’ adding, "By the end of the first quarter next year, when a lot of that (energy price) unwind will have happened, we may be a bit under 4% but we'll still have 2% to go, maybe. And the rest of it has to be done by policy and monetary policy. And policy is operating in what I call a restrictive way at the moment - it is restricting the economy. The second half, from there to two, is hard work and obviously we don't want to see any more damage.’ Market rate expectations last week pointed to between 90 and 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2024, the current probabilities show around 61 basis points. GBP/USD posted a fresh near-three-month high of 1.2644 earlier in the session, helped by governor Bailey’s comments and a soft US dollar, before drifting back to 1.2620 as the greenback made a slight recovery. Resistance is seen at 1.2667 and 1.2742, while support at 1.2547 guards a zone of support between 1.2471 (50% Fib retracement) and 1.2447. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Retail trader data show 45.17% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.21 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 11.86% higher than yesterday and 10.00% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 7.45% higher than yesterday and 29.10% higher than last week. What Does Changing Retail Sentiment Mean for Price Action? Charts using TradingView What is your view on the British Pound – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/british-pound-latest-gbp-usd-remains-supported-boe-warn-on-inflation-20231127.html

2023-11-27 12:00

Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) Analysis and Charts Gold breaks higher, resistance yields. Silver rallies by 2% and outperforms gold. Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Price Setting Up for a Re-Test of Multi-Month Highs The US dollar is moving back to lows last seen in late August and this is giving the precious metal sector another boost higher. A weaker dollar is seen as a positive for both gold and silver, with demand for the precious metals increasing as gold becomes cheaper in dollar-denominated terms. The US dollar is testing support off its longer-dated simple moving average ( black line) and if this breaks, further losses look likely. US Dollar Index Daily Chart Retail trader data shows 57.43% of traders are net-long Gold with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.35 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 3.18% higher than yesterday and 1.18% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.00% lower than yesterday and 18.10% higher from last week. Gold is testing a prior level of resistance at $2,009/oz. and looks set to push higher. A prior level of note at $1,987/oz. is acting as first-line support, with the 20-day simple moving average, currently at $1,976/oz. the next level of interest. A close and open above $2,009/oz. should open the way to $2,032/oz. and $2,049/oz. Gold Daily Price Chart – November 27, 2023 Learn How to Trade Gold with our Complimentary Guide Silver is also moving higher again and is outperforming gold over the last two weeks. Silver has rallied nearly 20% over the last two months and is currently trading at its highest level since late August. The technical setup remains positive and a break above $25.26 will bring $26.13 and $26.21 into play. Silver Daily Price Chart – November 27, 2023 Charts via TradingView What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-xau-usd-and-silver-xag-usd-continue-to-rally-as-buyers-take-charge-20231127.html

2023-11-27 10:00

Article by IG Senior Market Analyst Axel Rudolph FTSE 100, DAX 40, S&P 500 - Analysis and Charts FTSE 100 remains side-lined Last week the FTSE 100 traded sideways below the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,505, and this week is expected to continue to do so, at least for a few more days. While the UK blue chip index stays above Tuesday’s 7,446 low, though, it remains within a gradual uptrend, targeting its recent 7,516 high. If bettered, the current November peak at 7,535 will be in focus ahead of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,587. Below Tuesday’s 7,446 low, minor support can be seen around the mid-November low at 7,403 and the early September and early October lows at 7,384 to 7,369. FTSE 100 Daily Chart DAX 40 continues to play with the 16,000 mark The DAX 40 continues to flirt with the psychological 16,000 mark ahead of Germany’s consumer confidence data, out on Tuesday. The August and September highs at 15,992 to 16,044 thus continue to act as a short-term resistance zone. If overcome, the early and mid-July highs at 16,187 to 16,211 would be targeted next. Minor support is seen around last Monday’s high at 15,955 and at Tuesday’s 15,880 low. DAX 40 Daily Chart S&P 500 consolidates below its current 4,569 November peak Resistance is seen at the current November peak at 4,569 and immediate support at Wednesday’s 4,535 low. Further potential support can be spotted at the 4,524 mid-November high. Only a currently unexpected rise above the recent 4,569 high could put the July peak at 4,607 on the cards. S&P500 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ftse-100-dax-40-and-s-p-500-begin-the-week-on-a-quiet-note-20231127.html

2023-11-27 07:40

USD/JPY ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS Japanese inflation keeps pressure on BoJ to shift policy. Strong emphasis on US economic data that includes core PCE. Upside risks remain despite solid start to the week for the yen. Supercharge your trading prowess with an in-depth analysis of the Japanese Yen outlook, offering insights from both fundamental and technical viewpoints. Claim your free Q4 trading guide now! JAPANESE YEN FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP The Japanese Yen ended the trading week on a muted tone due to the US Thanksgiving Day hangover but Friday held some key information to factor into the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) analysis. Once again, headline inflation held above the 2% whilst beating estimates and remaining above 3%. Remember the BoJ consistently reinforces the fact that they want to see sustained +2% inflation thus increasing the likelihood of a policy shift. A hawkish move will aid the yen and conclude negative interest rates policy. Money market pricing (see table below) forecasts a rate hike towards the latter part of 2024 as but incoming data will remain highly influential and could drastically change expectations as we have seen with many central banks this year. BANK OF JAPAN INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES Source: Refinitiv USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG Daily USD/JPY price action has been respectful of the 50-day moving average (yellow) of recent with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) now favoring bearish momentum short-term. That being said, last week’s weekly candle close formed a hammer-like candlestick that could suggest a longer-term bullish preference. The last few daily candles now resemble an ascending triangle type pattern – another bullish advocate. Key resistance levels: 151.95 150.00 Key support levels: 148.16 50-day moving average (yellow) 147.37 145.91 145.00 IG CLIENT SENTIMENT: MIXED IGCS shows retail traders are currently net SHORT on USD/JPY, with 81% of traders currently holding short positions (as of this writing). https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-jpy-weekly-forecast-boj-policy-change-reinforced-by-japanese-cpi-wv-20231127.html

2023-11-26 17:00

Market Week Ahead: Gold Tests $2k, GBP/USD, EUR/USD Pop, USD Sags Markets remain risk-on with a range of US equity markets posting fresh multi-month highs. The VIX ‘fear gauge’ is at lows last seen at the start of 2020 and has fallen in excess of 46% from its late-October spike high. The growing feeling that interest rates have peaked around the globe is fueling the feel-good feeling and with rate cuts expected at the end of Q2 2024, the move higher may have more to go in the coming months. Learn How to Trade the Trend with our Complimentary Guide VIX Daily Chart The US dollar remains on the backfoot and is within touching distance of making a fresh multi-month low, despite US Treasury yields edging higher. Next week there is a large sale of 2-, 5-, and 7-year US Treasuries and it seems that the market is pushing for higher yields before the $148 billion of paper hits the street. There are a few high-impact economic data releases on the calendar next week with the 2nd look at US GDP and Euro Area and US inflation the standouts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also speaks at the end of the week. Technical and Fundamental Forecasts – w/c November 27th British Pound (GBP) Weekly Forecast: Data and Monetary Policy Align, Doubts Remain The British Pound is back at highs not seen since early September against the United States Dollar. Indeed, it looks perhaps surprisingly comfortable above $ .1.25 on its twin pillars of monetary support and, as rarely of late, economic data. Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) Hold the High Ground as Oil Prices Eye a Recovery Gold and Silver prices enjoyed a positive week as buyers kept both metals supported with a struggling US Dollar helping as well. Both Gold and Silver threatened a selloff this week, but buyers kept prices steady for the majority of what was a shortened trading week. Looking at Gold though and the failure to find acceptance above the $2000/oz mark could leave the precious metal vulnerable heading into next week. Euro (EUR) Forecast: EUR/USD and EUR/GBP Week Ahead Outlooks FX markets have been relatively quiet overall in a holiday-shortened week, with the British Pound the notable exception. The Euro has edged higher against the US dollar, consolidating its recent gains, while the single currency has struggled against the British Pound and is back at lows last seen over two weeks ago. US Dollar Forecast: Growth and Inflation to Extend the USD Sell-Off? The dollar has been moving lower, in a similar fashion to US yields and US economic data as the world’s largest economy appears to be feeling the effects of tight financial conditions. Labor data has eased since the October NFP report, retail sales, and CPI data dropped and overall sentiment data has been revised lower too. USD/JPY Weekly Forecast: BoJ Policy Change Reinforced by Japanese CPI The Japanese Yen ended the trading week on a muted tone due to the US Thanksgiving Day hangover but Friday held some key information to factor into the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) analysis. Once again, headline inflation held above 2% whilst beating estimates and remaining above 3% https://www.dailyfx.com/news/market-week-ahead-gold-tests-2k-gbp-usd-eur-usd-pop-usd-sags-20231126.html

2023-11-24 15:14

US PMI KEY POINTS: S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Nov) Actual 50.7 Vs Previous 50.7. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Nov) Actual 49.4 Vs Forecast 49.8. S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov) Actual 50.8 Vs Forecast 50.4. Employment Declined at US Service Providers and Manufacturers in November for the First Time Since Mid-2020 Amid Tepid Demand and Elevated Costs. To Learn More AboutPrice Action,Chart PatternsandMoving Averages, Check out theDailyFX Education Section. US Business Activity remained steady in November with a marginal expansion in output. The rate of growth in business activity in line with that seen in October. Although manufacturers and service providers registered another monthly rise in activity, paces of expansion were only slight overall. Source: S&P Global PMI Service providers witnessed a fractional uptick in the rate of output growth, the fastest since July. Total new orders increased slightly, driven by the first expansion in service sector new business in four months, while employment levels declined for the first time in almost three-and-a-half years. At the same time, total new export orders rose for the first time since July as manufacturers noted an expansion in new sales from external customers. Less robust expectations regarding the outlook for output over the coming 12 months at service providers weighed on overall business confidence in November. Looking at pricing, input costs experienced the smallest increase since October 2020 due to lower energy and raw material expenses, while selling prices advanced at a faster pace. Commenting on the data, Siân Jones, Principal Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “Moreover, demand conditions – largely driven by the service sector – improved as new orders returned to growth for the first time in four months. The upturn was historically subdued, however, amid challenges securing orders as customers remained concerned about global economic uncertainty, muted demand and high interest rates. On a more positive note, input price inflation softened again while selling price inflation remained subdued relative to the average over the last three years and was consistent with a rate of increase close to the Fed’s 2% target.” THE US ECONOMY AND DOLLAR OUTLOOK The US Economy continues to surprise and frustrate in equal measure. Each time we get a few data releases which suggest a cooling in the economy, it is usually followed by a data print that suggests the opposite. This week has been no different even though the calendar has been a bit quiet coupled with the Thanksgiving Holiday. This week saw initial jobless claims fall once more just as it seemed that the labor market may be entering a phase of sustained cooling. This weeks print however will keep market participants on the edge heading into next month’s jobs data and inflation prints. A robust labor market will continue to keep demand at elevated levels and thus inflation and this is where the concern comes in. There was a positive on the demand front from todays report however as the report revealed that employment declined at US service providers and manufacturers in November for the first time since Mid-2020 amid tepid demand and elevated costs. I still expect market participants to continue to flip-flop after every data release heading into next months Federal Reserve meeting which could clear things up a bit more. Personally, is still believe the road ahead will be a bumpy one with the DXY likely to struggle heading into 2024. MARKET REACTION Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Zain Vawda The Initial reaction to the data saw the DXY edge slightly lower into the key support area between the 103.40-103.00 area. Looking at the bigger picture and the US Dollar Index was caught between the 100 and 200-day MA but is attempting to break and print a daily candle close below the 200-day MA. However, there is a key area of support resting just below around the 103.00 handle which poses a bigger threat to further US Dollar downside. Looking at the potential for a move to the upside and immediate resistance rests at 104.24 with the 20-day MA resting higher at the 105.00 psychological level. This however would require a stark change in fortune for the Greenback in the early part of next week. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-dollar-index-dxy-unfazed-as-business-activity-in-the-us-held-firm-20231124.html