2023-11-24 13:00

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis, Prices, and Charts Gold looking to push higher despite quiet conditions. Gold ignoring higher US bond yields. Gold is edging higher in a quiet market and looks ready to re-test both $2,000/oz. and the recent multi-month high at a fraction under $2,010/oz. The precious metal is holding its own against rising US government bond yields today, although low volume conditions may be distorting both markets. The only data release of note today, flash S&P PMIs at 14.45 UK, may add a bout of volatility but market conditions are likely to remain quiet until next week. US Treasury bond yields are edging higher with the rate-sensitive 2-year now offered at 4.95%, around 15 basis points than one week ago. Next week sees heavy short- to medium-term UST issuance with a total of $148 billion of 2s, 5s, and 7s up for sale. Traders are likely pushing yields higher ahead of these auctions to get more value for their money. US Treasury 2-Year Yield – November 24, 2023 The daily gold chart retains a positive outlook and another test of the recent high is looking likely. The 20-day simple moving average is now acting as support, along with the 50- and 200-day smas, while a prior level of note at $1,987/oz. has also been supportive in this week. Below here, support is seen from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $1,972/oz. If resistance is broken convincingly then $2032/oz. and $2049/oz. come into play. Gold Daily Price Chart – November 24, 2023 Charts via TradingView IG Retail Trader data show 58.19% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.39 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 5.21% higher than yesterday and 2.55% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.88% lower than yesterday and 12.79% higher than last week. What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-xau-usd-price-setting-up-for-a-re-test-of-multi-month-highs-20231124.html

2023-11-24 12:05

Japanese Yen News and Analysis Month on month Japanese inflation rose at its fastest pace in 10 years Extreme short yen positioning yes to be tested during thin, holiday affected trading USD/JPY on track for a flat two-day period ahead of Thanksgiving weekend The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Japanese Inflation Accelerates at its Fastest Pace Over the Last 10 Years Japanese inflation (headline CPI) rose to 3.3% from the prior 3.0% for the month of September, while the global measure of core inflation (inflation minus volatile items like food and energy) dipped from 4.2% to 4%. However, the standout from the data was the month-on-month number which revealed a notable acceleration of inflation heading into the end of the year. The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has previously expressed that the board will have enough data on hand by year end to make a decision on potential policy normalization, in other words removing negative interest rates. The chart below shows the pace of month on month inflation data in Japan which has revealed a trend of making higher highs despite the volatile spikes lower too. The bank is closely watching inflation and wage growth data as these are the main determinants of whether demand-driven pressures are likely to persist at elevated levels sustainably. Japanese Inflation (Month on Month) Source: Refinitiv, prepared by Richard Snow The Japanese Yen has surrendered the majority of last week’s gains as can be seen by the Japanese Yen Index below. The index is a equal-weighted index consisting of four major currencies against the yen. Japanese Yen Index (USD/JPY. GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY) Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow USD/JPY Gives Little Away, Testing Dynamic Resistance USD/JPY came in flat yesterday and appears to be on track for a second day in a row of little change in the opening and closing price. The pair has rallied for the week and is on track for a weekly advance which appears to be capped around 150 once again. The 50-day simple moving average, which acted previously as dynamic support has now switched to dynamic resistance and is keeping the pair contained. If US growth and inflation data next week registers disappointing numbers, we could see another drift lower. EU GDP was revised lower yesterday and the US is hoping not to follow in the same steps as Europe but the warning signs are there. USD/JPY Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Positioning Remains Heavily Short Yen, Long USD/JPY is Overcrowded According to the latest CoT data, smart money positioning remains heavily short compared to readings over the last three years, with the gap appearing to widen still. The risk here is that upside potential in USD/JPY appears limited with the 150 market watched closely despite the lack of urgency surrounding potential FX intervention from Tokyo; and a sharp move to the downside could force a liquidation in long USD/JPY positions, exacerbating the potential move. The dollar has come under pressure as weaker fundamental data now has the US heading in the same direction as other less resilient major economies, suggesting there still may be more easing to come from the greenback. Source: Refinitiv, prepared by Richard Snow USD/JPY may struggle for direction at the start of next week until we get US GDP and PCE data on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/japanese-inflation-mom-accelerates-to-10-year-high-usd-jpy-holds-firm-20231124.html

2023-11-24 10:00

Article by IG Senior Market Analyst Axel Rudolph FTSE 100, DAX 40, Nasdaq 100 - Analysis and Charts FTSE 100 continues to be side-lined The FTSE 100 continues to be range bound below the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,505. Despite UK consumer confidence rising in November a negative bias has been seen since the start of the day. While the UK blue chip index stays above Tuesday’s 7,446 low, it remains within a gradual uptrend, targeting last Friday’s 7,516 high. If overcome, the current November peak at 7,535 will be eyed ahead of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,589. Below Tuesday’s 7,446 low minor support can be seen around last Thursday’s low at 7,430, and the early September and early October lows at 7,384 to 7,369. FTSE 100 Daily Chart DAX 40 continues to flirt with the 16,000 mark The DAX 40 continues to play with the psychological 16,000 mark despite Germany's economy contracting 0.1% in the third quarter, reversing its 0.1% growth in the previous quarter, ahead of today's IFO business climate index. The August and September highs at 15,992 to 16,044 continue to act as a short-term resistance zone that caps. Minor support below Thursday’s high at 15,867 can be made out at last Thursday’s 15,710 low. Further down meanders the 200-day simple moving average at 15,673. DAX 40 Daily Chart Nasdaq 100 consolidates below its recent near two-year high The Nasdaq 100’s stiff rally off its late October low has this week briefly taken the index to 16,126, a level last traded in January 2022, before consolidating in low volume ahead of the prolonged Thanksgiving weekend. With US markets shut for the second half of the day, the index is expected to trade in very little volume within a tight range but remains on track for its fourth straight week of gains. The July high at 15,932 offers potential support while Monday’s 16,065 high may cap. A rise into year-end above 16,126 would put the December 2021 high at 16,660 on the map. Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/dax-40-nasdaq-100-on-track-for-fourth-straight-week-of-gains-while-ftse-100-lags-20231124.html

2023-11-24 07:30

EUR/USD ANALYSIS Mixed euro area inputs are providing no firm guidance as to the path forward. German Ifo business climate report and ECB officials under the spotlight. EUR/USD consolidating in anticipation of fundamental catalysts. EURO FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP The euro appreciated against the USD on Thanksgiving Day yesterday after eurozone PMI data showed some improvements despite remaining below the 50 threshold that delineates contraction from expansion. The European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts were also released yesterday and highlighted market uncertainty as well as data dependency going forward, hiking interest rates if required. ECB officials on the other hand were mixed and it will be interesting to see how today’s speakers add to the overall rhetoric. Source: Refinitiv Option expiries for today show the largest proportion around the 1.0800 handle which could see the pair trade weaker as expiry looms. Looking at rate probabilities (refer to table below), little has changed as markets view current levels as the peak of the hiking cycle with cuts expected to begin around June 2024. EUR/USD:1.0800 (EU1.18b), 1.0925 (EU925m), 1.1000 (EU759.1m) ECB INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES Source: Refinitiv TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG The daily EUR/USD chart has not yet managed to push higher after breaching the overbought zone of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) alongisde the 1.0900 pyshcological handle. Recent consolidation is a sign of hesitancy by EUR/USD traders ahead of next week’s inflation data. Resistance levels: 1.1000 Support levels: 1.0900 1.0800/200-day MA 1.0700 IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: MIXED IGCS shows retail traders are currently neither NET SHORT on EUR/USD, with 57% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-euro-price-forecast-eur-weakens-on-german-gdp-wv-20231124.html

2023-11-23 23:30

DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD PRICE, CHARTS AND ANALYSIS: USD Index (DXY) Caught Between a Rock and a Hard Place. Catalyst May be Needed for a Breakout. EUR/USD, GBP/USD Both Providing Some Mixed Signals but May Present Opportunities from an Intraday Perspective. Client Sentiment Data Points Toward Indecision as Buyers and Sellers Jockey for Position. To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. Most Read: Bitcoin Steady as Coinbase (Coin) Emerges as Winner from Binance Saga US DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP The US Dollar Index (DXY) has struggled to maintain the upside momentum it gained over the last 2 days. This could in part be down to the Thanksgiving Holiday and we could get a continuation of the recent bounce heading into next week. The US Dollar has struggled on the back of weakening data over the past few weeks as markets continue to grapple with the possibility that Federal Reserve are done. Yesterdays rebound was helped further by a decline in initial jobless claims which may keep the demand environment strong and thus hamper the fight against inflation. The week is coming to an end with no high impact data releases from the US and although we will get a slight rebound in trading volumes tomorrow, there is every chance we remain rangebound heading into the weekend. PRICE ACTION AND POTENTIAL SETUPS US Dollar Index (DXY) The US Dollar Index is caught between the 100 and 200-day MA which is why I suggested above we could continue to see rangebound trade ahead of the weekend. As things stand it is looking more and more likely that we will need some form of catalyst to facilitate a break in either direction. Immediate resistance rests at 104.24 with the 20-day MA resting higher at the 105.00 psychological level. An attempted break to the downside has support to contend with at 103.616 with a key area of support resting around the 103.00 zone. DXY Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Zain Vawda EURUSD Now given the thin liquidity and rangebound price action of late, I thought we could break down EURUSD on the H4 timeframe. The H4 itself has been giving some mixed signals with Higher lows followed up by lower highs pointing to the current indecision in USD denominated pairs. The 50-day MA to the downside may provide support and an opportunity for potential longs around the 1.08757 level or if we are to get a deeper retracement down to the 1.0840 handle. Short opportunities that potentially provide the best risk to reward may come into play if EURUSD retests 1.0950. Personally, I prefer to abide by the age-old adage “the trend is your friend” and thus would prefer potential long opportunities pending a pullback. Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Support levels: 1.0875 1.0840 1.0800 Resistance levels: 1.0950 1.1000 1.1048 EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Zain Vawda GBPUSD GBPUSD is a bit clearer as we can see a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows this week. The question will be whether bulls have one more push to the upside and push Cable toward the 1.2600 handle. As you can see on the chart below the pink box, I have drawn in just below the current price and touching the 50-day MA would be my preferred area for potential longs. This would provide a better risk to reward and would complete a lower high print. If we do break below the 50-day MA we have support at the 1.2400 mark and lower at the 1.2360 mark. A selloff ahead of the weekend may also be on the cards as this would be down to profit taking as buyers who got in during the early part of the week may want to close out before the weekend. A lot will depend on the return of liquidity tomorrow and how much risk market participants are willing to take before the weekend. GBP/USD Four-Hour Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Zain Vawda IG CLIENT SETIMENT DATA Taking a quick look at the IG Client Sentiment, Retail Traders are Long on GBPUSD with 52% of retail traders holding Long positions. This is another sign of the indecision market participants are experiencing when it comes to USD pairs. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-dollar-price-action-setups-dxy-eur-usd-gbp-usd-20231123.html

2023-11-23 19:24

BITCOIN, CRYPTO KEY POINTS: Bitcoin Remains Below the $38k Mark as Rangebound Trade Continues. Crypto Industry Relatively Calm Despite Record Breaking Binance Fine and New CEO for the World’s Largest Crypto Exchange. Coinbase Appears to be an Unlikely Winner as it Continues to Advance. To Learn More AboutPrice Action,Chart Patterns and Moving Averages,Check out the DailyFX Education Series. READ MORE: Crypto Forecast: Will Bitcoin Have What it Takes to Break the $38k Mark? Bitcoin rallied sharply yesterday after threatening to break support at the 35500 level. Yesterday’s aggressive rebound came within a whisker of the 38000 mark before struggling to break higher today. It seems the current range may be here to stay a while longer. BINANCE FINE, CZ STEPS DOWN AND COINBASE EMERGE AS WINNERS It’s been a busy week for Cryptocurrencies and the industry despite no word on the much-anticipated Spot Bitcoin ETF. However, developments around Binance (the world’s largest crypto exchange) dominated the headlines. As news filtered through regarding the imminent decision by Changpeng Zhao (CZ as he is known) to step down as CEO of Binance with Richard Teng taking his place. In a statement posted on the X platform the former CEO stated that this is best for him, Binance and the crypto community. The CEO did close out his post by confirming that the deal in place with US regulators do not allege misappropriation of user funds or market manipulation. Along with a new CEO Binance have to pay a $4.3 billion fine which had raised concerns about the health of the company. Incoming CEO Richard Teng was quick to address concerns citing robust revenues and profit. Mr Tang went further stating that the funadamentals of the Busines remain strong as they have a debt free capital structure and modest expenses. There was also an interesting back and forth between the Binance CEO and Coinbase (Coin) director Conor Grogan who shared that based on the Proof of Reserves document shared by Teng, Binance would have to sell some of its crypto assets. This was denied by Binance who says the reserves will be fine for the repayment programme. Looking at Coinbase and things do get interesting. The US exchange which has faced some troubles of its own in the recent past appears to be the biggest winner so far in 2023 as competitors falter. In recent times the announcement of the Spot Bitcoin ETF application by many companies who listed Coinbase as the storage partner. As news grows of a potential ETF approval Coinbase has been a beneficiary, coupled with a recovery over the last two weeks in US equities and the Crypto exchange is enjoying an excellent run. Further validating this belief is the recent metrics from both Coinbase and Binance which showed a sharp uptick in Bitcoin Holdings for the former while the latter’s Bitcoin holdings continues to slide. A Bitcoin ETF approval might add a further layer of credibility to Coinbase and 2024 could be huge year for the exchange and equally as important for Binance. A brief look at the Coinbase (Coin) chart below and you can see that share price has been on a steady rise since bottoming out at around the $30 mark in January before a double bottom pattern in June helped the share price return to July highs around the 109.00 handle. Given the promising Fundamentals for Coinbase and the potential ETF approval it would take a wise man to bet against further gains in the coming months. Coinbase Daily Chart, November 23, 2023 Source: TradingView READ MORE: HOW TO USE TWITTER FOR TRADERS BITCOIN TECHNICAL OUTLOOK AND FINAL THOUGHTS From a technical standpoint BTCUSD is interesting as it hovers just below the $38k mark. Nothing much has changed from a technical standpoint from my article earlier this week (link at the top of the article). The 38000 mark remains a stumbling block to further upside and I fear the longer we stall at this level the greater the likelihood for a selloff becomes. Resistance levels: 38000 40000 42500 Support levels: 36200 35500-35200 34177 BTCUSD Daily Chart, November 23, 2023. Source: TradingView, chart prepared by Zain Vawda https://www.dailyfx.com/news/bitcoin-steady-as-coinbase-coin-emerges-as-winner-from-binance-saga-20231123.html