2023-11-23 17:34

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis Gold expected to underwhelm this Thanksgiving weekend amid thin trading XAU/USD reveals an aversion to trading above $2000 as ceasefire tests safe haven appeal USD and Treasury yields remain a factor as markets lower expectations of rate cuts next year The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Gold Expected to Underwhelm this Thanksgiving Weekend Gold prices rose in early trading but failed to capitalize on the move as activity is expected to remain rather light on this thanksgiving long weekend. In fairness, gold has struggled to surpass the $2000 level with any decent follow through. Price action has twice approached $2010, immediately heading lower both times. Yesterday, a slight pick up in the dollar weighed on gold prices after initial jobless claims for November missed expectations. The figures suggests the labour market remains robust despite weaker US fundamental data that has appeared over the last three weeks. The next big question mark for gold is centered around the recently agreed ceasefire between Israel and Hamas to allow for safe passage of hostages and prisoners. The agreement is the most significant diplomatic achievement since the 7th of October attack and only time will tell if it represents a significant move towards further agreements and the facilitation of aid into the most affected areas. Resistance remains at $2010 with nearby support at $1985, followed by the 200 SMA and the $1937 level. Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow The weekly chart highlights the recent difficulty to surpass the $2010 level but still reveals the bullish trend remains intact. However, the recent swing low and the inability to mark a higher high, hints at a period of potential consolidation as the RSI heads lower. Gold (XAU/USD) Weekly Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow USD and Yields to play Further Role after Markets Lower Rate Cut Expectations for 2024 In the wake of cooler-than-expected US CPI data the US dollar and Treasury yields dropped, sparking mass speculation around the timing and magnitude of rate cuts next year. At its height, market expectations reached as much as 100 basis points worth of hikes for next year despite the Fed’s recent forecasts suggesting 50 bps. The more resilient labour market data this week has helped to temper those expectations by a full 25 bps cut, now seeing 85 bps by the end of next year. Gold tends to exhibit an inverse relationship with the dollar and US yields as they represent the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing metal. Source: Refinitiv, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-cautious-above-2000-on-thin-holiday-affected-trading-20231123.html

2023-11-23 16:00

Japanese Yen (JPY) Analysis and Charts • USDJPY retreat has slowed into the Thanksgiving Break • Latest Fed Minutes were seen as hawkish • Japanese inflation numbers come as BoJ policy is in focus The Japanese Yen was very modestly higher against the United States Dollar as Thursday’s European afternoon wound down, with trade momentum predictably sapped by the US Thanksgiving holiday break. In some respects that break has come at an inopportune time for Dollar bulls. This week’s release of minutes from October’s Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting has been taken by the market as at least relatively hawkish, although whether or not they really were is perhaps debatable. For sure the central bank stands ready to raise rates again should inflation not continue to relax, but in this as elsewhere the minutes appeared to say little the Fed hasn’t said before. In any case, the market reaction was to buy the Dollar against most things, and certainly against the Yen, with USD/JPY posting two straight days of gains. This may of course be only a temporary respite. The markets’ expectation is that inflation will continue to decelerate as a result of interest-rate rises already undertaken and that, not only will the Fed not increase rates again, it may indeed be in a position to cut them in the first half of next year. This thesis is likely to undermine the Dollar for as long as it endures, with this week’s generally weaker run of US economic data only likely to underline it. On the ‘JPY’ side of USD/JPY, the Japanese economy is also struggling. Tokyo downgraded its view on the country’s likely fortunes this week, the first such downgrade in ten months. The Japanese government feels that Japan’s post-Covid recovery is now ‘pausing’ with weak demand weighing on both capital spending and consumers’ mood. Hopes that the Bank of Japan might at last be ready to alter its unchanged and extremely accommodative monetary policy in the face of rising inflation have offered the Yen some rare domestic support. They may continue to do so. But news that Tokyo is worried about local demand conditions is bound to give traders some pause here. Still, official Japanese inflation data are due later on Thursday, with the core rate expected to have ticked up to 3% in October, from 2.8% in September. An as-expected print could see USD/JPY lower, but holiday-thinned conditions could blunt any data impact. USD/JPY Technical Analysis USD/JPY Daily Chart Compiled Usiing TradingView USD/JPY has fallen this week out of the upward-trending trade band which had previously bounded the market since August 7 and which, in any case, was only an extension of the climbs seen since the start of this year. The Dollar showed clear signs of exhaustion in the 151.60 area, which has capped the pair twice in the past month and, probably not coincidentally, was also the peak of 2022. For now, that level continues to offer formidable resistance to Dollar bulls, with the former channel base at 150.76 offering a barrier below it. Before getting there, bulls will need to retake psychological resistance at 150.00, and there seems to be some sense that holiday-induced torpor is really all that’s stopping that, at least. Slips will find support at Tuesday’s low of 147.103, ahead of the first Fibonacci retracement of this year’s overall rise. That comes in at 146.184 and has yet to face a serious test. This looks like a market in which it might be best to trade very cautiously now, if at all pending a bit more clarity on both sides of the currency pair. IG’s own sentiment data shows traders have mixed feelings about USD/JPY, as well they might given the uncertainties in the current fundamental picture. There is a bias towards being short at current levels, however. --By David Cottle for DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/japanese-yen-jpy-pares-some-losses-as-key-inflation-data-near-20231123.html

2023-11-23 14:25

RAND TALKING POINTS & ANALYSIS SARB keeps rates at 8.25% since their last hike in May 2023. Low trading volumes today will likely extend throughout the remaining trading session. USD/ZAR hovers around key resistance. Macro-economic fundamentals underpin almost all markets in the global economy via growth, inflation and employment – Get you FREE guide now! USD/ZAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP Inflation concerns persist as the primary goal for the SARB to bring within its midpoint zone of its target band of 3% - 6%. Taking into account yesterday’s inflation beat was not enough to push the MPC or any of its members to opt for an interest rate hike. Clearly, the SARB has taken the inflation print as a once off as one data point does not make a trend. Food, fuel and electricity have been the major contributors to this elevated inflation level but with 'loadshedding' forecasts expected to lessen, greater capacity could assist in economic growth and lower inflation. A more recent challenge for the South African economy has stemmed from backlogs in ports across the country and may prove to be a negative for the country alongside the ZAR. In summary, the current rate level was said to be sufficiently restrictive in order to bring inflation down going forward. The path is likely influenced by other major central banks like the Federal Reserve who are taking a ‘wait and see’ approach (data dependency). Future rate hikes were not dismissed either, and higher inflation could lead to additional monetary policy if required. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/ZAR DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, TradingView The daily USD/ZAR chart above reveals minimal change post-SARB as it tests the 50-day moving average (yellow). Should we see another close above this level, the 19.0000 psychological level may well come into consideration. With US markets closed, low volumes may be contributing to the lack of volatility as US inflation comes into focus next week. Resistance levels: 19.0000 50-day MA (yellow) 18.7759 Support levels: 200-day MA (blue) 18.5000 https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-zar-breaking-news-rand-unmoved-by-sarb-pause-wv-20231123.html

2023-11-23 13:00

GBP/USD Analysis and Charts Better than expected PMI data underpins Sterling’s recent rally. Cable (GBP/USD) prints a fresh 10-week high. The latest UK S&P Global PMIs beat both last month’s prints and expectations earlier today, with the all-important services sector leading the way. Learn How to Trade Financial News with our Complimentary Guide According to Tim Moore, economics director at data provider S&P Global Market Intelligence, ‘The UK economy found its feet again in November as the service sector arrested a three-month sequence of decline and manufacturers began to report less severe cutbacks to production schedules. Relief at the pause in interest rate hikes and a clear slowdown in headline measures of inflation are helping to support business activity, although the latest survey data merely suggests broadly flat UK GDP in the final quarter of 2023.’ S&P Global Full Report While the data shows a mildly better UK economy, albeit with worries about growth and inflation in the coming months, Sterling traders took a positive view on the release and pushed the Pound higher. GBP/USD made a new ten-week high post-release and the pair are now four-and-a-half big figures higher from the 1.2100 print seen at the start of the month. A lot of the move in cable has been due to US dollar weakness, but today’s rally is being led by Sterling's strength and this may well continue. From a technical perspective, GBP/USD remains biased to further upside. The pair recently broke above the 200-day simple moving average (sma) for the first time since early September and this longer-dated moving average now turns supportive. Above the 200-dsma, the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2471 adds further support. A clean break above 1.2547 would leave the 38.2% Fib retracement at 1.2628 vulnerable. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Retail trader data shows 52.97% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.13 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 2.78% higher than yesterday and 1.60% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 11.97% lower than yesterday and 5.62% higher from last week. What Does Retail Sentiment Mean for Price Action? Charts using TradingView What is your view on the British Pound – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/british-pound-latest-gbp-usd-boosted-by-positive-pmi-data-20231123.html

2023-11-23 11:30

Article by IG Senior Market Analyst Axel Rudolph FTSE 100, CAC 40, DAX40: Analysis and Charts FTSE 100 continues to be side-lined The FTSE 100 still range trades below its 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,506 following the chancellor’s autumn statement which despite promising significant tax cuts leaves the UK tax burden at the highest level since 1948. As the US earnings season draws to an end ahead of Thanksgiving and Black Friday, trading volumes will likely be light on Thursday. While the UK blue chip index remains above Tuesday’s 7,446 low, it stays within an uptrend and may still revisit Friday’s 7,516 high. Further up sits the current November peak at 7,535, an advance above which would target the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,592. Minor support can be found around the 9 November high at 7,466 ahead of Tuesday’s 7,446 low. Below it, last Thursday’s low can be made out at 7,430, followed by the early September and early October lows at 7,384 to 7,369. FTSE 100 Daily Chart See How IG Client Sentiment Can Help You Make Trading Decisions CAC 40 rises above 200-day SMA The French CAC 40 has this week managed to rise and stay above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,248 ahead of Thursday’s French manufacturing and services PMIs with the July-to-November downtrend line at 7,306 remaining in view. Above it beckons the late August and September highs at 7,407 to 7,436. Minor support below the 200-day SMA can be spotted at Tuesday’s low and along the October-to-November uptrend line at 7,214. While it underpins, the short-term uptrend remains intact. CAC 40 Daily Chart DAX 40 is drawn to the 16,000 mark The DAX 40 continues to gradually rise towards the psychological 16,000 mark as German manufacturing and services PMIs may add more color to the state of the economy. On Wednesday the index reached the August and September highs at 15,992 to 16,044 which short-term capped but is back in sight today. Minor support below Thursday’s high at 15,867 can be seen at last Thursday’s 15,710 low. Further down slithers the 200-day simple moving average at 15,671. DAX 40 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ftse-100-cac-40-and-dax-40-quietly-advance-in-low-volume-trading-20231123.html

2023-11-23 09:42

Euro Analysis German manufacturing and services sectors register meagre surprise to the upside EUR/USD rises but pulls back to levels observed ahead of the release Few catalysts this week point to potentially lower volatility as markets speculate on 2024 rate cutting cycle The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library German manufacturing PMI preliminary data beat the consensus view of 41.2, coming in at 42,3 to mark a partial recovery in what has been a steady contraction thus far. The services sector also outperformed against expectations, coming in at 48.7 vs the anticipated 48.5 figure. The slight improvement does not alter the economic outlook for Germany but may be a sign of a less severe GDP contraction expected in Q4. A return to growth (readings above 50) appears as a possibility for the aggregated reading, the composite data point, before 2H next year but growth still remains weak. Germany has miraculously avoided a technical recession in 2023 after prior quarterly GDP prints revealed stagnant and sometimes negative GDP growth. Immediate Market Reaction The EUR/USD 5-minute chart revealed an immediate move higher after the release but has since pulled back to levels observed in the moments before the print. EUR/USD 5-Min Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow EUR/USD daily chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/eur-usd-price-update-eur-usd-price-update-german-pmi-points-towards-shallow-downturngerman-pmi-points-towards-shallow-downturn-20231123.html