2023-11-23 07:48

AUD/USD ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS Australian PMI’s concerning but encouraging news from China and a weaker USD keep the AUD elevated. Thanksgiving Day sees no additional high impact data scheduled for today. AUD/USD faces key resistance at 200-day MA. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP Some positivity out of China supplemented the AUD upside today after Beijing announced that distressed property developers are to received financial aid. With the greenback trading lower and the aforementioned Chinese optimism, some key Australian commodity exports are tracking higher thus supporting the Aussie dollar. There has been a hawkish shift in rate expectations (refer to table below) with a higher probability of a rate hike in 2024. From a US dollar perspective, markets have reacted negatively after yesterday’s durable goods orders and Michigan consumer sentiment ticked lower although we did see a pullback in initial jobless claims. With today being Thanksgiving Day in the US, there is likely to be minimal volatility and volume across financial markets and I expect the pair to stay relatively subdued. RBA INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES Source: Refinitiv TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, TradingView AUD/USD daily price action above has not managed to breach the topside of the 200-day moving average (blue) resistance zone and could be showing signs of fatigue as the pair approaches the overbought region of the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Tuesday’s long upper wick close could point to subsequent downside to come where next week’s Australian and US inflation data could be the catalyst for short-term directional bias. 0.6596 200-day MA Key support levels: 0.6500 0.6459 50-day MA 0.6358 IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: MIXED (AUD/USD) IGCS shows retail traders are currently net LONG on AUD/USD, with 59% of traders currently holding long positions. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-aud-price-forecast-aussie-dollar-shakes-off-weak-pmi-s-wv-20231123.html

2023-11-23 00:00

AUD/USD, GBP/AUD PRICE, CHARTS AND ANALYSIS: AUD/USD Eyes Retracement After Printing Higher High. RBA Minutes Paint a More Hawkish Outlook as Governor Bullock Hints that Inflation Fight is Far from Over. GBP/AUD To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. Most Read: Gold Price Forecast: Rejection at $2000 Level Leaves the Door Open for a Move Lower AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes of the most recent meeting where the Central Bank delivered another 25bps hike. The Aussie Dolla surprisingly faced a selloff following the hike which looking at the minutes is surprising to say the least. The minutes revealed that the hike was intended to lower the risk of a “larger monetary policy response”, given stubbornly high inflation and a strong economy. The minutes also see inflation risks remaining tilted toward the upside despite the recent comments by RBA Governor Bullock stating inflation has peaked. The Governor did however mention that bringing inflation within the target range will remain a challenge for the Economy and could take as long as 2 years. This does not surprise as I have always stated my belief that inflation never truly comes down enough with some items remaining higher moving forward while others may become cheaper. I do expect part of the recent inflationary pressures globally to be entrenched and thus the next couple of months should prove particularly interesting for Central Banks. The Australian Dollar has remained relatively firm since the initial selloff in the aftermath of the rate hike. I expect this to continue as intimated by Governor Bullock the economy des remain quite strong thanks to strong demand. The labor market is expected to remain strong according to Governor Bullock and this in turn could keep the demand side going as well which does pose upside risks to inflation. Looking at an interest rate comparison and the RBA are still in a good position to effect another rate hike should they feel it is warranted. The RBA still enjoy the lowest rate in comparison to the UK, EU and the United States as you can see on the chart below. Source: TradingView We did have some data a short while ago as well with the release of the Judo Bank Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash numbers. Manufacturing and Services both declined slightly from the October print but seemed to have little immediate impact on the Australian Dollar. PRICE ACTION AND POTENTIAL SETUPS AUDUSD AUDUSD had been on an impressive rally since the Central Bank raised rates and we had an initial selloff to retest support at the 0.6350 mark. Since then, AUDUSD has exploded printing a fresh higher high and keeping the overall bullish structure going. AUDUSD also remains with a long-term descending channel but may find it hard to push on from here without some form of retracement. Resistance has been provided by the 200-day MA at the 0.6600 level. The issue for sellers is that there remains a lot of downside support as well which could hamper a sustained move lower. It would also appear that a golden cross pattern may be developing as the 20-day MA eyes a cross above the 100-day MA which would be a nod to potential bullish continuation. Personally, I would prefer some form of retracement here before potentially joining the trend as we have just printed a higher high. I will be keeping a close eye on support at 0.6484, 0.6440 and 0.6400 for potential long opportunities. A break and daily candle close below the 0.6350 mark will be needed for a change in structure, and this would then invalidate the bullish setup. Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Support levels: 0.6484 0.6445 0.6400 Resistance levels: 0.6594 0.6650 0.6691 AUD/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Zain Vawda GBPAUD GBPAUD has been rangebound for the best part of two months. For many pairs a 400-pip range is quite large but in the case of an exotic like GBPAUD it is not. As things stand there is a clearly defined range and some key areas of support and resistance which may be used for potential opportunities in the interim, which i will highlight below. Support on the downside rests at the 1.9000 handle and just below at the 1.8950 mark. A move lower also brings the possibility that we may spike slightly lower to tap into the 200-day MA at 1.8911. Key Levels that may provide resistance for potential shorts will be the 1.9211 area and then the 1.9278 before the range high at 1.9338 comes into focus. All these levels may provide an opportunity for potential shorts as even a breakout will only serve to improve the risk to reward ratio. GBP/AUD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Zain Vawda https://www.dailyfx.com/news/australian-dollar-price-action-setups-aud-usd-gbp-aud-20231123.html

2023-11-22 18:30

GOLD (XAU/USD) PRICE FORECAST: Gold (XAU/USD) Rally Loses Steam at the Psychological $2000/oz Level. Dollar Index (DXY) Rally Continues as Treasury Yields Rebound as Well all Working Against the Rally in Gold Prices. US Heading into the Thanksgiving Break Means Low Liquidity Tomorrow and Potentially Friday as well. To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. MOST READ: USD/CAD Remains Rangebound as Canadian CPI Falls More Than Expected. Where to Next? Gold prices continue to find acceptance above the $2000/oz a step to far. Yesterday saw an aggressive push above the resistance level only foe the Daily Candle to close back below the psychological level. Another attempt today was met with some strong bearish pressure as Gold surrendered its daily high to trade around $1993/oz at the time of writing. Supercharge your trading prowess with an in-depth analysis of gold's outlook, offering insights from both fundamental and technical viewpoints. Claim your free Q4 trading guide now! US DATA AND DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) RECOVERY The Fed minutes did little to excite markets yesterday largely due to the recent spate of US data showing positive signs. However, the overall mood remains a bit more tentative following hawkish comments from ECB and BOE policymakers keeping market participants on edge. Of more importance however has been the recent bounce in both US Treasury Yields and the US Dollar Index finding support. This has allowed Gold bears an opportunity to pounce and keep Gold prices from exploding above the $2000/oz mark. US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart – November 22, 2023 Source: TradingView, Chart Prepared by Zain Vawda A mixed day in terms of US Data today with Durable Goods Orders coming in below forecast for November with October being downgraded to 4% as well. Another sign that the strong demand which has been prevalent In the US in 2023 may be coming to an end. Michigan Consumer Sentiment beat forecast but came in much lower than the October print, continuing a renewed downward trend which began following the July print of 71.6. A sign that pessimism around the US economy still exists. Now with the US Thanksgiving Holiday tomorrow we have no high impact US data releases for the rest of the week. Taking that into account we could see some volatility as market participants take profit and reposition ahead of the break. Alternatively, we could see Gold limp toward the end of the US session as liquidity begins to thin. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK GOLD Form a technical perspective, Gold continues to throw up slightly mixed signals. It did appear that we had shifted back into bullish structure but following the rejection we are seeing today, this would hint at a new lower high which of course is bearish price action. If the rejection of the $2000/oz mark gathers steam, then immediate support around $1983 may prove a challenge as we saw earlier this week on the daily timeframe. The other reason that I see the current technical picture as being a mixed one comes from the moving averages as we are seeing a golden cross pattern at the moment with the 50-day MA attempting to cross above the 100-day MA. This usually hints at momentum to the upside and would contradict today’s daily candle close. All in all, not the easiest to break down from a technical perspective at the moment. Smaller timeframes may be best for those looking for opportunities during the rest of the week with liquidity also expected to be low owing to the Thanksgiving break. Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Resistance levels: 2000.00 2008.00 2025.00 Support levels: 1983.00 1968.00 1950.00 Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart – November 22, 2023 Source: TradingView, Chart Prepared by Zain Vawda IG CLIENT SENTIMENT Taking a quick look at the IG Client Sentiment, Retail Traders are Long on Gold with 55% of retail traders holding Long positions. Given the Contrarian View to Crowd Sentiment Adopted Here at DailyFX, is this a sign that Gold may continue to fall? https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-price-forecast-rejection-at-2000-level-leaves-the-door-open-for-a-move-lower-20231122.html

2023-11-22 17:02

Oil (Brent, WTI) News and Analysis EIA storage figures reveal increasing stock levels – keeping prices suppressed Brent crude pullback has proven to be short lived after failing to surpass 200 SMA WTI revealing a bearish formation (evening star) at notable level of resistance The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library EIA Storage Figures Reveal Increasing Stock Levels – Keeping Prices Suppressed Cushing storage levels revealed another sizeable build even after last week’s double dose of rising stock levels – helping continue the slide in oil prices. Oil prices have continued to drop ever since a notable turn in fundamental data in the US which itself, followed on from very weak data in Europe and China. The pessimistic economic outlook has led forward-looking markets to price in lower oil demand if the global economy is set to contract in the coming months and quarters. OPEC and its allies known as OPEC + was scheduled to reconvene on Saturday amid rising speculation of extended supply cuts which typically results in rising oil prices. Breaking news confirms that the meeting has now been delayed to the 30th of November with analysts pointing to potentially differing views in the group as the reason for the delay but this is yet to be confirmed. Today’s price action tested the crucial 200-day simple moving average (SMA) before heading lower. The 200 SMA roughly coincides with the $82 level – a prior pivot point for the commodity. The next level of support appears via the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the broader 2020 to 2022 move at $77 before the $71.50 level comes into focus. Resistance remains back at the 200 SMA. Oil (Brent) Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow The WTI chart highlights a similar dynamic, with the chart portraying the same rejection of the 200 SMA, just above the significant long-term level of $77.40 (see monthly chart further down). Support is at the prior swing low at $72.50, followed by $67 - which is the lower level identified by the Biden administration to replenish SPR storage, something that is now due to take years to complete. The formation of an evening star adds to the bearish sentiment and even though it appears within a mature trend, revealed a notable rejection at the 200 SMA. Oil (WTI) Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow The monthly chart helps to isolate the significant long-term level of $77.40 – a level that has provided multiple major reversals/pivot points in the past. Oil (WTI) Monthly Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/oil-price-update-opec-delays-meeting-and-eia-storage-data-rises-again-20231122.html

2023-11-22 14:06

Main Takeaways from the 2023 UK Autumn Statement Main national insurance rate to be cut by 2%, from 12% to 10% for 27 million people Full expensing of capital investment for businesses made permanent. Business investment to improve by £20bn per year according to estimates State pensions to rise by 8.5% from April 2024 Welfare benefits grow in line with the September’s CPI figure of 6.7% instead of the rumoured, lower October figure Tax Cuts, Debt Reduction and Massive Boost to UK Businesses Last autumn, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt was brought in as damage limitation, now he has a tiny bit of wriggle room in his budget and has his sights set on growth. Now that inflation has been halved and stimulus/support packages have been phased out, the government has a minimal amount of headroom within the budget which many were anticipating would be utilized to ease the burden of taxes. They were right, well kind of. The tax cuts weren’t applied to income tax but rather to the percentage of national income tax that will be applicable to 27 million people in the UK. This has now created an expectation that the prime minister’s calls for a drop in the basic tax rate will be the main event of the pre-general election budget in the spring. Furthermore, businesses will be able to fully expense investment expenditure permanently. This is potentially going to attract around £20bn worth of investment per year. In addition, the UK government is committed to reducing the rate of government borrowing compared to the rate of economic growth – with OBR forecasts seeing debt as a percentage of GDP fall for the majority of the forecast period, approaching the low 90% level. The OBR provided updates to its UK growth forecasts which were revised considerably lower – highlighting the need for increased productivity. 2023 is on track to outperform the March forecasts but that is where the good news ends. 2024 is expected to see a meagre 0.7% growth vs prior 1.8% and 1.4% growth in 2025 vs the earlier estimates of 2.5%. The IMF’s world economic outlook in October revealed growth of 0.5% and 0.6% in 2023 and 2024, respectively. OBR Forecasts on UK Growth Source: OBR, prepared by Richard Snow Immediate Market Reaction The statement saw little movement across UK assets as can be seen below via cable and FTSE 5-minute charts. GBP/USD, FTSE 5-minute chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Sterling received a tiny boost yesterday as policy setters at the Bank of England (BoE) continued to warn about the upside risks to inflation and issued a warning over reading too much into recent inflation prints. This has buoyed cable despite the dollar also receiving a small boost after the rather hawkish but outdated FOMC minutes last night. GBP/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/uk-autumn-statement-tax-cuts-business-investment-and-debt-reduction-20231122.html

2023-11-22 12:30

USD/JPY ANALYSIS Grim outlook from Japanese assessment keep JPY upside limited this morning. Durable goods orders, consumer sentiment and jobless claims needed for overall US economic outlook. Can JPY bulls extend recent upside? JAPANESE YEN FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP The Japanese Yen has given back some of its recent gains against the greenback today after the FOMC minutes reiterated a more cautious yet restrictive monetary policy stance from the Federal Reserve. From a safe haven perspective, the recent agreement between Israel and Hamas to pause fighting has brought some limitations to JPY upside. The recent weakening of the USD has potentially been a blessing in disguise for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) as the need for intervention in FX markets may not be required should this trend continue. Early this morning, Japanese government officials stated that the economic outlook for Japan has been downgraded due to drained domestic demand – weighing negatively on the yen. Tomorrow’s Thanksgiving holiday will likely see minimal movement across FX markets but Friday’s Japanese inflation will be crucial for short-term guidance on the pair; and may impact current pricing for rate hikes to begin in late 2024 (see table below): BOJ INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES Source: Refinitiv TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG USD/JPY shows price action above shows the USD appreciating after yesterday’s long lower wick candle close as it finds resistance at the 50-day moving average (yellow). Should we get data in line with expectations from the US today, JPY bulls may well retest yesterday’s lows ahead of Friday’s inflation release. Key resistance levels: 151.95 150.00 50-day MA Key support levels: 148.16 147.37 145.91 145.00 IG CLIENT SENTIMENT: MIXED IGCS shows retail traders are currently net SHORT on USD/JPY, with 76% of traders currently holding short positions (as of this writing). https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-jpy-price-forecast-boj-hopeful-for-softer-usd-wv-20231122.html