2023-11-21 14:28

RAND TALKING POINTS & ANALYSIS Rand remains buoyant on weaker USD and positive leading business cycle figures. FOMC minutes to come later today. Bullish divergence progressing off long-term support. USD/ZAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP Macro-economic fundamentals underpin almost all markets in the global economy via growth, inflation and employment – Get you FREE guide now! The South African rand has been consolidating of recent against the US dollar due to global markets digesting recent US economic data and what that means for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. Sentiment has shifted from a hawkish dynamic to one more neutral particularly via the US labor market. The FOMC minutes later this evening will likely be dismissive of any hawkish speak and may favor additional ZAR upside. The weaker USD has contributed to an increase in many dollar based commodities including South Africa’s major exports including gold, iron ore and other precious metals. A more positive outlook from a Chinese perspective supplemented this upside and should China’s economic growth continue to show improvement, the ZAR may follow suit. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/ZAR DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, TradingView The daily USD/ZAR chart above shows traders being respectful of the long-term trendline support (black) zone as mentioned in my previous analysis that coinciding with the bullish/positive divergence factor measured via the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Recent doji candles suggest indecision at this point and is predictable in an environment where key economic data looms. The week’s end should give us a more accurate picture of the local market as well as more information around the US economy with jobless claims under the spotlight after last week’s 3-month high. Resistance levels: 18.7759/50-day MA (yellow) 200-day MA (blue) 18.5000 Support levels: Trendline support 18.0000 17.7000 https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-zar-price-forecast-rand-susceptible-to-sa-cpi-sarb-wv-20231121.html

2023-11-21 13:00

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis, Prices, and Charts US dollar weakness may be put on hold ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday The technical set-up for gold looks positive. Learn how to trade gold with our complimentary guide Tonight’s minutes of the November 1st FOMC meeting will shed some more light on the Fed’s thinking for the months ahead. While the markets have already decided that interest rates have peaked, and will be cut next year, Chair Powell remains reticent to say that the Fed has won its fight with inflation. Chair Powell continues to say that the US central bank will hike rates further if needed, while the market is saying that US interest rates will be cut by 100 basis points by the end of next year, with the first 25bp cut penciled in at the May 2024 meeting. With the market now backing the view that rates are not going any higher, the US dollar has been moving lower. The US dollar index has shed four points since the beginning of November and broken through a number of layers of support with ease. If the DXY is unable to reclaim the 200-day simple moving average, further losses are likely. US Dollar Index Daily Chart – November 21, 2023 In contrast to the US dollar, the technical outlook for gold looks positive. After selling off over the last three weeks as markets turned risk-on, the precious metal is now looking at the US interest rate space and pushing higher. Gold is trading above all three moving averages and is back above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $1,972. The recent $2,009/oz. high is the next target for bulls. Support is seen at $1,972/oz. ahead of $1,960/oz. Financial markets as a whole are expected to quieten down after Wednesday as the US celebrates Thanksgiving Day on Thursday before the annual Black Friday event. This liquidity drain will weigh on volatility going into the weekend. Gold Daily Price Chart – November 21, 2023 Charts via TradingView What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-xau-usd-price-latest-setting-up-for-the-next-leg-higher-20231121.html

2023-11-21 11:55

Aussie Dollar (AUD/USD, AUD/JPY) Analysis • RBA minutes: Anchor inflation expectations while the cash rate is comparatively low • AUD/USD retreats off intraday high and 200-day SMA – watch for further USD weakness • IG client positioning narrows but recent changes favor upside potential RBA minutes: Anchor inflation expectations while the cash rate is comparatively low The minutes from the November 7th RBA meeting revealed a very close call to hike rates by another 25 basis points with the goal of anchoring inflation expectations. Key to note within the committee's most recent forecasts was the assumption of further rate hikes which were built into the data. The decision was made a little bit easier with the Australian Cash Rate relatively low when compared with other major central banks. While Australian interest rates are restrictive, the housing market appeared to show resilience, suggesting that demand was still posing potential problems in the sector and could impact price increases down the line. Earlier this morning the RBA Governor Michele Bullock took part in a panel discussion where she highlighted the changing inflation profile which started out as a supply-side issue but has more recently shown that demand is playing an increasingly greater role. Learn How to Trade AUS/USD with Our Complimentary Guide The AUD/USD Chart shows a rather interesting response to the released minutes which initially saw AUD/USD rising to test the 0.6580 level (April 2020 high). This is a significant level not only because it has come into play multiple times since the Covid-19 pandemic but also because it coincides with the 200-day simple moving average. In the London session, price action has already climbed down from the session high but remains above the prior zone of resistance (now support) of 0.6570. Potential bullish catalysts may surface if incoming inflation data in Australia trends higher or inflation expectations build. AUD/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow IG Client Sentiment Shows Diverging Positioning but Favours Upside Potential AUD/USD: Retail trader data shows 58.99% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.44 to 1. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Learn how to read and apply IG client sentiment to you trading process by claiming your free sentiment guide on the subject below: https://www.dailyfx.com/news/rba-minutes-reveal-motive-behind-the-november-hike-20231121.html

2023-11-21 10:00

Article by IG Chief Market Analyst Chris Beauchamp Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, CAC 40 - Analysis and Charts Dow above August and September highs The index has surged through the 35,000 level, reaching its highest level since the end of August.The next target is the high from July around 35,680, and would mark the complete recovery of the losses sustained since the end of July. From here the February 2022 high at 35,860 is the next level to watch, and then beyond that comes 36,465, and then the 2022 high at 36,954. It would need a move back below the 100-day SMA to put a more substantial dent in the overall bullish view. Dow Jones Daily Chart See How Daily and Weekly Changes Can Affect IG Retail Sentiment Nikkei 225 knocks on the door of June highs Monday witnessed the index move to its highest level since the beginning of June.This puts the price above trendline resistance from the June highs and marks a step-change after the failure to break higher seen in September. Resistance may now become support, and the 34,000 level beckons. Such impressive gains in the short term may put some pressure on the index, but as with the Dow, a reversal below the 100-day SMA would be a necessary first step to dispelling the bullish view. Nikkei 225 Daily Chart CAC40 back at 200-day MA The index has returned to the 200-day SMA for the first time since mid-September. It has been able to move and hold above the 100-day SMA, and more importantly, has moved back above the 7170 area that marked resistance in September and October. This clears the way for a move towards 7400, where rallies in August and September were stalled. Some consolidation back down towards the 50-day SMA could be envisaged, and the index could still create a lower high, with a close below the 50-day SMA suggesting that sellers are in the process of reasserting control. CAC 40 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/dow-nikkei-225-and-cac40-continue-to-make-gains-20231121.html

2023-11-21 07:52

POUND STERLING ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS UK debt a cause for concern long-term. Cable traders look to FOMC minutes for guidance. GBP/USD faces key resistance at 1.2548. GBPUSD FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP The British pound stays supported by a weaker US dollar and a hawkish Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey who made some critical statements regarding inflation and the future of monetary policy (see below): “Inflation risks may need more aggressive action.” “The inflation data for October ,released last week, were welcome news, but it is much too early to declare victory.” “I am on the watch for signs that inflation will persist.” “The Middle East events add to upside energy price risks.” “It is far too early to be thinking about rate cuts.” Later today, the FOMC minutes will come into focus from the November rate announcement. The Fed pushed back against rate cut expectations and maintained a ‘higher for longer’ narrative but recognized the impact of high rates on the US economy (labor and inflation). More of the same is expected via the minutes but with recent US data showing a slowing economy and a weakening jobs market, any dovish messaging could be capitalized on by USD bears. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG Daily GBP/USD price action above is trading above the 1.2500 psychological handle for the first time since early September and retains it’s hold above the 200-day moving average (blue). Bulls are being held back around the 1.2548 swing resistance level that has been a key inflection point from April 2023. As cable approaches overbought territory on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), bulls may become wary short-term. It is important to remember that the UK Autumn statement will likely stir volatility across GBP pairs tomorrow as markets head into a less volatile Thanksgiving holiday later in the week. Key resistance levels: 1.2746 1.2548 Key support levels: 1.2500 200-day MA 1.2308 BULLISH IG CLIENT SENTIMENT (GBP/USD) IG Client Sentiment Data (IGCS) shows retail traders are currently net LONG on GBP/USD with 52% of traders holding long positions (as of this writing). https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-gbp-price-forecast-pound-gears-up-for-fomc-as-markets-process-uk-borrowing-wv-20231121.html

2023-11-20 21:00

BITCOIN, CRYPTO KEY POINTS: Bitcoin Faces a Key Test at the $38k Mark with Another Rejection Likely Leading to a Deeper Retracement. ETF Approval Delay Has Not Had a Negative Impact on Bitcoin Prices Yet as January Eyed for a Decision. Ethereum is Throwing Mixed Signals as the 2124 Handle Holds the Key. To Learn More AboutPrice Action,Chart Patterns and Moving Averages,Check out the DailyFX Education Series. READ MORE: Oil Price Forecast: Recovery Continues as Expectations for OPEC Cuts Grow Bitcoin prices continue to hold the high ground but the $38k level remains a stumbling block. The rumors that an ETF approval would come by the November 17th failed to come to fruition with Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart commenting that we may not get any approval until January. Surprisingly Bitcoin has remained resilient in the face of what many perceive as the SEC looking for any reason to delay their decision. BITCOIN SPOT ETF DELAY TO WEIGH ON PRICES? We have heard comments from both sides of the spectrum with MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor once more looking like a genius. The Bitcoin enthusiast has renewed his bullish rhetoric regarding Bitcoin with Saylor claiming that a potential demand surge may be on its way. Saylor may not be wrong however, given that a ETF approval is likely to lead to a huge surge in demand. The most interesting Tweet by Saylor was his “cost of conventional thinking” one which showed the gains in both Bitcoin and the SPX since August 10 2010, the date at which MicroStrategy adopted it Bitcoin strategy. Since, Bitcoin is up a whopping 214% in comparison to the SPX growth of 31%. Another reason cited for Bitcoin holding the high ground came about following the victory by Argentinian far right candidate Javier Milei who is a known Bitcoin enthusiast. Argentina has been grappling with runaway inflation with Milei critical of the Central Bank and traditional finance. This is also seen as a huge step for the crypto industry as it means a Bitcoin enthusiast is also a member of the G-20. Market participants may be hoping that this could lead to positive developments around crypto regulation moving forward. Looking at the performance today and as you can see from the heat map below, many of the smaller coins are in the red today with Solana and Avalanche the biggest losers. Source: TradingView READ MORE: HOW TO USE TWITTER FOR TRADERS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK AND FINAL THOUGHTS From a technical standpoint BTCUSD is interesting as it hovers just below the $38k mark. If price continues to struggle to break higher soon then a deeper retracement may be in the offing ahead of the New Year which may not be a bad thing. This would allow would be buyers a better risk to reward opportunity before the ETF decision and halving next year. However, what we have seen of late is Crypto whales continue to hold and build their positions while the retail trading landscape has seen a slowdown of late. A lot of this is down to the tightening financial conditions globally leaving consumers with less disposable income. BTCUSD Daily Chart, November 20, 2023. Source: TradingView, chart prepared by Zain Vawda Resistance levels: 38000 40000 42500 Support levels: 36200 35500-35200 34177 ETHUSD Daily Chart, November 20, 2023. Source: TradingView, chart prepared by Zain Vawda Looking at Ethereum and the weekly timeframe hints that a retracement may be incoming this week. The weekly candle closed as a bearish inside bar hinting at further downside ahead which will be invalidate with a daily candle close above the 2124 level. As long as price remains below this level we may face some selling pressure. Price action on the daily timeframe does hint at a fresh high however, having printed a new lower high and bouncing off support provided by the 20-day MA last week. The mixed signals here will give market participants food for thought as we also have a golden cross pattern with the 50-day MA crossing above the 200-day MA at the time of writing. All in all, this is a rather mixed technical picture which does not offer a lot of clarity. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/crypto-forecast-will-bitcoin-have-what-it-takes-to-break-the-38k-mark-20231120.html