2023-11-20 18:00

OIL PRICE FORECAST: Oil Recovery Now Up 7%+ from Last Week's Lows with $80 a Barrel Now in Sight. Speculation Continues to Mount Around Further Supply Cuts from OPEC+ as the Organization Meets Later this Month. Technical Hurdles Ahead May Prove Insignificant as Sentiment and OPEC Concerns Keep Bulls Interested. To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. Most Read: What is OPEC and What is Their Role in Global Markets? Oil prices have continued their strong recovery from last Friday with gains of around 2.7% at the time of writing. Friday saw the rally begin largely on concerns of the fresh sanctions package by the EU on Russian Oil and continued this morning as speculation around further OPEC cuts grow. OPEC + TO INTRODUCE FURTHER CUTS? Markets have not been so bearish on Oil price in a while as a global slowdown has emboldened bears of late. Having said that there is also growing speculation that further supply cuts may be on the way with OPEC looking to maintain stability and keep Oil prices above the $80 a barrel mark. OPEC+ meets later this month and according to a source the group do believe that more may be needed to maintain Oil prices above the $80 a barrel mark. OPEC faced backlash when they initially started the supply cuts, however they have been vindicated given the macro environment and movements in Oil prices throughout 2023. Surprisingly we heard today that the UAE will be allowed to increase supply of Oil under terms of the current deal. Abu Dhabi is poised to increase output after winning a concession at the group’s most recent meeting in June. Abu Dhabi argued that long-standing production limits failed to account for capacity additions made in recent years. This has surprisingly had little impact on the Oil price today as market still fear production cuts from other member states. Further adding to a bearish narrative is the Venezuela conundrum. The South American nations continues to make moves to boost production after the lifting of sanctions and could return to decent levels of production in 2024 which could add a further challenge to supply and demand dynamics. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REST OF THE WEEK Inventories will likely be key this week as we have seen a slight uptick in stockpiles of late which contributed to the recent selloff. Last week also saw an increase in the number of Oil rigs operated by US companies rose last week, this was the first gain in 3 weeks. This usually serves as an indicator for future output, and it will thus be interesting to see if the rig count continues to improve. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK AND FINAL THOUGHTS From a technical perspective both WTI and Brent have rallied today, both up around 2.7%. The technicals did hint at a recovery today as Friday’s daily candle did close as a bullish inside bar. Despite a gap lower over the weekend Oil prices continued to rise with WTI now running into resistance provided by the 200-day MA resting around 78.13. Looking at structure and we remain bearish overall with a daily candle close above the 78.55 mark needed to confirm a change in structure. This would be a good sign that we could push higher and reclaim the $80 a barrel mark, with a failure to do so likely leading to a retest of the recent lows or a potential fresh low around the 70.12 support area. WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart – November 20, 2023 Source: TradingView IG CLIENT SENTIMENT IG Client Sentiment data tells us that 80% of Traders are currently holding LONG positions. Given the contrarian view to client sentiment at DailyFX, are Oil prices destined to return to the $70 a barrel mark? Brent Oil Daily Chart – November 20, 2023 Source: TradingView Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Support levels: 80.26 77.50 75.00 Resistance levels: 83.76 85.70 87.75 https://www.dailyfx.com/news/oil-price-forecast-recovery-continues-as-expectations-for-opec-cuts-grow-20231120.html

2023-11-20 15:42

Gold, Silver Analysis Gold eases after last week’s advance – quieter week on the economic calendar FOMC minutes and reports of a new phase in the Israel-Hamas war present potential catalysts Silver encounters a challenge at channel resistance The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Gold Eases After Last Week’s Advance Gold rose last week to end a two-week run of losses but Friday’s price action laid the ground for a potential move lover this week. Friday’s extended upper wick revealed the early sign of a possible pullback developing at the start of this week. Price action now heads lower, trading down from the $1985 level, with he $1937 level next in view – as support. The $1937 level is significant as it roughly coincides with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). In recent trading days, a weaker dollar and easing US yields (Treasuries) have helped prop up gold prices after hitting a low on November 13th – the day before that softer US CPI print that inspired a dollar selloff. The FOMC minutes offer up a potential catalyst for the precious metal this week as far as it affects the dollar. Other than that it is a relatively quiet week however, a new phase in the Israel-Hamas war could see gold find it feet once more. Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Expected 30-day gold volatility continues to drop off a cliff after a brief period of consolidation. The longer this trend continues gold is unlikely to spike higher like we saw at the start of the conflict, but the metal is still in a favourable position to capitalize on further USD selling and lower US yields. 30-Day Expected Gold Volatility (GVZ) Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Silver Encounters a Challenge at Channel Resistance Silver also posted an impressive week last week, rising up to channel resistance and the (less significant) 50% Fibonacci retracement. Nevertheless, the metal has started the week on the back foot, with a continued drop opening up $22.35 (38.2% Fib) as a possible level of support. A larger move sees channel support come into play at the 23.6% fib retracement , $20.52. Silver (XAG/USD) Weekly Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-price-outlook-xau-usd-starts-the-week-lower-fomc-minutes-next-20231120.html

2023-11-20 13:10

EUR/USD ANALYSIS Weak US dollar providing sustenance for EUR. ECB officials in focus today. EUR/USD hits overbought zone on RSI, is bullish momentum fading? EURO FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP The euro has managed to maintain its upside against the USD this Monday after markets digest recent US and European economic data from last week. Both economies demonstrate slowing with the US a more recent addition, particularly via its labor data. From a European perspective, the inflation backdrop shows moderation in inflationary pressures that now have money markets expectant of the first European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate cut around April/June next year (refer to table below). ECB INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES Source: Refinitiv Despite the fact that ECB officials have been pushing back against this dovish narrative, forecasts have remain unchanged. Some quotes from the ECB’s Wunsch earlier this morning are shown below: “Bets on rate reductions risk are prompting hike instead.” “Markets are optimistic to rule out further hiking.” “Rates should remain unchanged in December and January.” On a more positive note, Chinese optimism has backed the euro today after recent positive Chinese data allowed for the PBoC to keep their LPR (1-year and 5-year) steady as prior stimulus measures seem to be improving the nations economy. Source: Refinitiv TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG The daily EUR/USD chart now trades above the 1.0900 psychological handle and the 200-day moving average (blue) respectively. That being said, bullish momentum may be short-lived as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) enters overbought territory and upcoming eurozone PMI’s are likely to disappoint. The pair may well trade back below 1.0900 by the week’s end. Resistance levels: 1.1000 Support levels: 1.0900 1.0800/200-day MA 1.0700 IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: MIXED IGCS shows retail traders are currently neither NET SHORT on EUR/USD, with 62% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-euro-price-forecast-eur-bid-on-usd-weakness-as-vulnerabilities-remain-wv-20231120.html

2023-11-20 11:30

British Pound Latest: GBP/USD Analysis and Chart Cable gains on US dollar weakness. UK Autumn Statement is released on Wednesday. Ahead of this week’s Autumn Statement, UK PM Rishi Sunak is promising to reduce debt and cut taxes in an effort to boost the UK economy further. PM Sunak today tweeted, ‘Now that inflation is halved, we can turn our attention to cutting tax… We will reward work, by cutting taxes and reforming our benefits system so work always pays.’ In a further tweet, PM Sunak added, ‘I will do what is necessary to get our debt down and provide financial security. That will help keep inflation falling and get mortgage rates back down to affordable levels.’ UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt will deliver the Autumn Statement on Wednesday at 12:00 UK. The latest CME Fed Fund rate predictions show a period of consolidation before US rate cuts start in May next year. The latest predictions suggest the Fed will cut rates by a total of 100 basis points over the course of the year to 425-450 in mid-December. CME Fed Watch Tool While the Autumn Statement will be closely followed, in the short-term cable is getting a boost from ongoing US dollar weakness. The US dollar index has given back nearly half of the mid-July to early-October rally and is now testing the 200-day simple moving average for the first time since mid-August. A confirmed break of this indicator, and of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 103.41, would leave the dollar vulnerable to further downside. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart How are GBP/USD Traders Currently Positioned and What Does it Mean for Price Action Charts using TradingView What is your view on the British Pound – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/british-pound-latest-gbp-usd-testing-1-2500-on-us-dollar-weakness-20231120.html

2023-11-20 10:00

Article by IG Senior Market Analyst Axel Rudolph FTSE 100, DAX 40, Nasdaq 100 Analysis and Charts FTSE 100 nears last week’s high The 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,503 may act as short-term resistance on the way up but once it and the 7,535 peak have been exceeded, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,600 will be in focus. Minor support can be found around the 9 November high at 7,466. Further down lies Thursday’s 7,430 low, followed by the early September and early October lows at 7,384 to 7,369. FTSE 100 Daily Chart See How Changes in Client Sentiment can Affect Price Action DAX 40 gunning for 16,000 mark The DAX 40 continues to advance towards the psychological 16,000 mark as German October producer prices come in at -0.1% month-on-month as forecast. The index has so far seen nine consecutive days of gains and is approaching the August and September highs at 15,992 to 16,044 which may short-term cap. Minor support below Thursday’s high at 15,867 can be found at Thursday’s 15,710 low. Further down meanders the 200-day simple moving average at 15,664. DAX40 Daily Chart Nasdaq 100 consolidates below the 15,932 July peak The Nasdaq 100’s 12% rally off its late October low has last week briefly taken the index to slightly above its July high at 15,932, to 15,978, before consolidating amid profit-taking ahead of this week’s Zoom and Nvidia earnings results. While the July and current November highs at 15,932 to 15,978 cap, Thursday’s low at 15,736 might be retested. Stronger support can be seen between the 15,628 to 15,520 early to mid-September highs. A rise above 15,978 would put the December 2021 high at 16,660 into the frame. Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ftse-100-dax-40-and-nasdaq-pause-after-three-weeks-of-strong-gains-20231120.html

2023-11-20 07:55

AUD/USD ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS Encouraging Chinese expectations keep AUD bid. All eyes on RBA and FOMC minutes tomorrow. AUD/USD bulls eye 200-day MA. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP The Australian dollar capitalized on last week’s close above the 0.6500 psychological handle this Monday morning as markets mull over global monetary policy. Recent weak US economic data particularly from the labor market saw US Treasury yields slip alongside USD weakness. Australian jobs data was quite the opposite with unemployment holding steady while employment change beat estimates. Inflation expectations have pushed higher and that could place more pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to sustain tight monetary policy with the possibility of additional interest rate hikes. Looking at money market pricing below, it is evident that markets have left the door open for more tightening. That being said, incoming data will be crucial for guidance around central bank strategy. RBA INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES Source: Refinitiv TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, TradingView AUD/USD daily price action above has now confidently broken above the 0.6500 level and head towards the 200-day moving average (blue). Bearish/negative divergence remains in play via the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and could unfold with a peak around the 200-day MA resistance zone. 0.6596 200-day MA Key support levels: 0.6500 0.6459 50-day MA 0.6358 IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: BULLISH (AUD/USD) IGCS shows retail traders are currently net LONG on AUD/USD, with 60% of traders currently holding long positions. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-aud-usd-price-forecast-positive-start-for-aussie-dollar-wv-20231120.html