2023-11-19 17:00

MARKET WEEK AHEAD FORECAST: GOLD, US DOLLAR, EUR/USD, OIL U.S. Treasury yields retreated over the past few days, weighing on the broader U.S. dollar Meanwhile, gold prices, the Nasdaq 100 and EUR/USD rallied, breaching key technical levels during their move higher Few high-impact events are expected in the coming days, with a shorter trading week in the U.S. because of the Thanksgiving holiday Most Read: Gold Price Forecast - XAU/USD Breaks Out as Yields Sink, Fed Pivot Hopes Build U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply last week after lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data coupled with rising U.S. jobless claims all but eliminated the likelihood of further monetary tightening by the U.S. central bank, giving traders the green light to begin pricing in more aggressive rate cuts for next year. The downturn in yields boosted stocks across the board, propelling the Nasdaq 100 towards its July high and within striking distance of breaking out to the topside- a technical event that could have bullish implications for the tech benchmark upon confirmation. If you're looking for an in-depth analysis of U.S. equity indices, our Q4 stock market outlook is packed with great insights rooted in strong fundamental and technical viewpoints. Get your guide now! The broader U.S. dollar, for its past, plunged almost 2%, with the DXY index sliding towards its lowest level since early September. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD blasted past its 200-day simple moving average, closing at its highest point in nearly three months. Benefiting from declining rates and a battered U.S. dollar, gold (XAU/USD) surged over 2.0% for the week, edging closer to reclaiming the psychological $2000 threshold. Meanwhile, silver prices jumped 7%, but was ultimately unable to breach a key ceiling near the $24.00 mark. In the energy space, oil (WTI) dropped for the fourth straight week, settling at its lowest point since mid-July. Traders should keep a close eye on near-term crude price developments, as pronounced weakness could suggest subdued demand growth linked to fears of a possible recession. For a deeper dive into the catalysts that could guide markets and create volatility in the near term, be sure to check out selected forecasts put together by the DailyFX team. FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL FORECASTS British Pound (GBP) Weekly Forecast: Vulnerable, Reliant On US Dollar Weakness Sterling has done well against the dollar in recent days, but hardly on its own merits. JPY Weekly Forecast: Cautious Ueda Leaves Yen Exposed USD/JPY continues to hover around the 150 mark ahead of Japanese CPI next week. Euro (EUR) Weekly Forecast: Will EUR/USD and EUR/GBP Continue to Rally? EUR/USD has racked up some hefty gains this week on the back of a US dollar sell-off. Can the euro keep the move going by itself next week? Indices Forecast: S&P 500, Nasdaq Surge While FTSE Lags Behind The rise in US equities has been fast and sharp, spurred on by weaker US data. Few scheduled risk events next week leave the door open for further gains. Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) Forecast: Technical Hurdles to Halt Rally? Gold and silver enjoyed an excellent week but now face technical hurdles to start the new week. Will US data help the metals overcome their challenges and keep the bullish rally alive? US Dollar on Breakdown Watch - Setups on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD This article focuses on the U.S. dollar, exploring the technical outlook for key FX pairs such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD. The piece also analyzes crucial price levels to monitor in the upcoming trading sessions. --- Individual Articles Composed by DailyFX Team Members https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-markets-week-ahead-gold-eur-usd-nasdaq-100-soar-as-us-yields-sink-oil-tanks-20231119.html

2023-11-18 01:00

USD/JPY ANALYSIS Key Japanese officials reiterated cautious approach. Japan’s inflation report will be the focal point for the pair next week. 50-day MA break could spark USD/JPY decline. JAPANESE YEN FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP The Japanese Yen remains vulnerable to further downside due to recent comments from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Ueda and Japan’s Minister of Finance Akazawa. Some of their statements are shown below: Ueda: “We will consider ending YCC and negative rate if we can expect inflation to stably and sustainably hit price our target.” “Making strong comments now on how we could alter policy could have unintended consequences in markets.” “We can't say now when the BoJ will change ultra-easy policy.” Akazawa: “We don't have a specific forex level in mind in deciding when to intervene.” “Any FX intervention will be aimed at arresting excess volatility. We won't intervene just because the yen is weakening.“ The above messaging highlights Japan’s careful mindset with so many moving parts globally including the Federal Reserve’s outlook, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and China’s economic growth. The BoJ will need to incorporate these multiple variables of which many are uncertain before looking to adapt their own monetary policy. Next week holds some key economic data (refer to calendar below) and with US durable goods orders likely to take a negative turn, the greenback may come under pressure. From a USD/JPY perspective, Japanese inflation will be key due to its significance in determining BoJ policy going forward. The BoJ has frequently reinforced the fact that they need to see inflation consistently above the 2% target rate before looking to alter policy, and with forecasts scheduled to push higher, this may stoke easing policy measures from the central bank. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG USD/JPY shows price action finding support off the 50-day moving average (yellow)and below the psychological 150.00 handle. Bears will be looking for a confirmation close below the moving average which could open up more downside. Bearish/negative divergence shown via the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may supplement this outlook but with Japanese fundamentals looking less supportive for the Yen, weak US data may be needed to catalyze this move. Key resistance levels: 151.95 150.00 Key support levels: 50-day MA 148.16 147.37 145.91 145.00 IG CLIENT SENTIMENT: BEARISH IGCS shows retail traders are currently net SHORT on USD/JPY, with 79% of traders currently holding short positions (as of this writing). https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-jpy-weekly-forecast-cautious-ueda-leaves-yen-exposed-wv-20231118.html

2023-11-17 14:30

EUR/USD, PRICE FORECAST: EUR/USD Hovers Around the 1.0850 as US Dollar Index Struggles. US Fed Minutes and Euro Area Consumer Confidence Data Eyed as Potential Catalysts for the Next Move in EURUSD. IG Client Sentiment Data Shows 57% of Traders are Currently Holding Short Positions. To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. MOST READ: Oil Latest – US Crude Trying to Nudge Higher After Another Week of Heavy Losses The Euro continues to hold the high ground against the Greenback following Tuesday’s explosive move to the upside. EURUSD is currently trading between two key levels with support provided around the 1.0840 handle and resistance at the 1.0900 mark. US DATA WEAKENS Macroeconomic data from the US continued its less than impressive prints this week with both initial jobless claims and Industrial Production coming in worse than expected. Initial jobless claims rose to 231k for the week ended November 11, while industrial production contracted by 0.6% for the month of November. The data continued to weigh on the US Dollar and hindering any attempt at a sustained recovery. EURO AREA DATA Euro Area final inflation data was released this morning with no surprises or adjustments to the preliminary number. Despite positives reflected in falling inflation, ECB Member Holzmann refuses to commit to rate cuts or call an end to rate hikes. Holzmann stated that the ECB will not cut interest rates in Q2 of 2024, a narrative that continues to gain traction both in the EU and the US. This in my opinion still remains a bit premature given all the changes we have seen during the course of 2023. A key area of focus for the ECB has been wage growth which the Central Bank would like to monitor in the first half of 2024 which looks like it may be cooling as well. We might only see ECB members commit to calling the end of the rate hike cycle during Q1 or Q2 of 2024 with the Central Bank hoping for no further shocks to inflation. Source: EuroStat LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK EURUSD may remain stuck in the range between 1.0800-1.0900 without a catalyst to keep the Euro advance against the Greenback going. Next week we do have the Fed Meeting Minutes which if it does backup the market narrative that the Fed are done with rate hikes could help spur EURUSD above the 1.0900 resistance hurdle. On the Euro side we have PMI data which is unlikely to show any major change as the economy in the Euro Area continues to limp along. As the clouds darken on the Euro Area it does appear like Q4 may see negative GDP growth with a potential recovery looking more likely in the second half of 2024. Let’s hope the data can at least spark some form of volatility next week to keep traders engaged even if the medium-term outlook remains murky. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK AND FINAL THOUGHTS Looking at EURUSD and the technical picture is interesting in light of the volume and recovery of the Euro this week. Of course, most of the recovery can be laid at the feet of the US Dollar following a slowdown in US inflation. Following the massive candle we had on Tuesday we do appear to be in a consolidative mode right now between the 1.0800 and 1.0900 handles. The 1.0800 has a lot of confluences and could serve to provide support should a beak of the immediate support resting at 1.0840. A break lower will bring the 1.0750 support level into focus, but this may also hinge on the USD outlook next week as the DXY seems to be driving the price action in EURUSD. EUR/USD Daily Chart – November 17, 2023 Source: TradingView IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA IGCSshows retail traders are currently Net-Short on EURUSD, with 57% of traders currently holding SHORT positions. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-retracement-incoming-catalyst-needed-if-bulls-are-to-remain-in-control-20231117.html

2023-11-17 13:00

Oil Analysis and Charts Oil prices continue to slide on demand worries. The technical outlook remains biased to the downside. US oil is down nearly 16% in the last month and over 23% in the last seven weeks as sellers continue to control price action. After touching a $95/bbl. high on September 28th, US crude hit a multi-month low of $72.22/bbl. on Thursday with today’s marginal move higher seen as short closing ahead of the weekend. A decisive break below the 200-day simple moving average, made on Wednesday, now leaves oil vulnerable to further losses. Recent data has weighed on oil and added to the bearish market tone. US continuing jobless claims and initial jobless claims came in higher than forecast on Thursday, while industrial production also fell by more than expected. On the supply side of the equation, Wednesday’s EIA crude oil data showed an unexpectedly large build in inventories over the last two weeks. While the technical outlook for oil remains negative, the speed of the recent sell-off leaves it open to a partial retrace on any positive demand or supply news. The 200-dsma, currently at $78.12/bbl. will prove a tough level to breach in the short-term but may be tested if more benign market conditions prevail. If this short-term uptick does not materialize, and the 200-dsma remains untroubled, a break of Thursday’s $72.22/bbl. low would see $70/bbl. come into play before a triple bottom around $67/bbl. comes into focus. Oil Daily Price Chart – November 17, 2023 Chart via TradingView IG Retail Trader data shows 89.11% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 8.18 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 16.50% higher than yesterday and 0.03% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 30.08% lower than yesterday and 14.34% lower from last week. What is your view on Oil – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/oil-latest-us-crude-trying-to-nudge-higher-after-another-week-of-heavy-losses-20231117.html

2023-11-17 11:42

USD/JPY News and Analysis Broad Japanese Yen strength observed late on Friday as BoJ and currency officials address FX intervention and monetary policy, respectively USD/JPY heads back below 150 but major currencies still on track for another weekly gain vs JPY Japanese government bond yields ease in sympathy with the US, global trend The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Broad Japanese Yen Strength Observed on Friday Comments from the Japanese finance ministry and from Bank of Japan Governor (BoJ) Kazuo Ueda inspired a late comeback in the yen across major FX pairs. The yen has otherwise experienced broad weakness despite the recent moves lower in the dollar on a worsening economic outlook for the world’s largest economy. However, the finance ministry’s Akazawa confirmed that any FX intervention will be aimed at arresting market volatility and Tokyo won’t intervene just because the currency is weakening. Taking this statement at face value, it would be reasonable to assume this meant FX intervention may not be as imminent as many may have believed, causing further weakness in the yen. Comments from BoJ Governor Ueda also lacked any sense of urgency, reaffirming that policy will only change if inflation is expected to be sustainably above target. However, markets saw this as an opportunity to claw back recent losses heading into the end of the week. Japanese Index – Simple Weighted Average (USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY) Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow USD/JPY headed lower in Friday after comments from Tokyo and BoJ officials, trading well below the 150 mark once again. Markets have become more brazen, trading above the supposed tripwire for the next round of FX intervention (150) in the absence of push back from top officials. Top currency officials may be more tolerant of yen weakness given oil prices have dropped notably in the past weeks. The net importer of oil will breathe a slight sigh of relief now that oil prices are under pressure – allowing the export industry to capitalize on its greater price competitiveness. USD/JPY now tests the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) as dynamic support but the recent inability of the yen to build on any appreciation suggests a bearish continuation may be hard to come by or require an additional catalyst. USD/JPY Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Bond yields head lower in sympathy with the global trend. Japanese bond yields are notably lower than after the latest yield curve control tweaks but the yen has shown signs of strength regardless. The real question is how sustainable will it prove to be? 10-Year Japanese Government Bond Yields (JGBs) Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Major Event Risk Ahead Next week the economic is fairly light across the board but we do get FOMC minutes to read over. With US rates now most likely at their peak, markets will be looking for further signs/ risks of overtightening now that the risk of not doing enough and doing too much has become more balanced. Softer US data has already led the Fed funds futures market to bring forward rate cuts in 2024 with nearly 100 bps worth of cuts expected. Then, towards the end of the week, Japan releases inflation data. The BoJ is still collecting data before making a decision to withdrawn from its negative interest rate regime; seeking compelling evidence of demand driven inflation that will breach 2% in a stable and sustainable manner as well as witnessing sustainable wage growth. The majority if analysts polled by Reuters see the end of negative rates in 2024. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/yen-update-what-s-behind-the-recent-yen-strength-20231117.html

2023-11-17 10:00

Article by IG Senior Market Analyst Axel Rudolph FTSE 100, DAX 40, Nasdaq 100 Analysis and Charts FTSE 100 rallies on softer US and UK inflation A host of large-cap dividend payments on Thursday put the FTSE 100 on the back foot, together with disappointing results from Burberry’s with its share price dropping by over 10%. Early Friday morning UK retail sales slid to their lowest level since the 2021 COVID-19 lockdown, by 0.3% in October 2023, following a downwardly revised fall of 1.1% in September. This did not prevent the FTSE 100 from recovering from Thursday’s low at 7,403. While it holds, the 9 November high at 7,466 may be reached. Further up sits more significant resistance between the early November high and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,484 to 7,501. Support below Thursday’s 7,430 low can be found between the early September and early October lows at 7,384 to 7,369. FTSE 100 Daily Chart See How IG Client Sentiment Can Help You Make Better Informed Trading Decisions DAX 40 trades in two-month high The DAX 40 continues to rise, having so far seen eight consecutive days of gains, and is approaching the August and September highs at 15,992 to 16,044 which may short-term cap. Minor support below Thursday’s 15,710 low can be seen along the 200-day simple moving average at 15,661.Further down lie the early October high at 15,575 and the mid-September low at 15,561. DAX 40 Daily Chart Nasdaq 100 flirts with the 15,932 July peak The Nasdaq 100’s 12% rally off its late October low has taken the index to its July high which is short-term thwarting the advance ahead of the weekend amid profit taking and as the US’ largest retailer WalMart tumbles 8% amid a cautious outlook for consumer spending. While the July and current November highs at 15,932 to 15,978 cap, Thursday’s low at 15,736, and the steep October-to-November uptrend line at 15,724 are likely to be revisited. Good support can be found between the 15,628 to 15,520 early to mid-September highs, though. A rise above 15,978 would engage the December 2021 high at 16,660. Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ftse-100-dax-40-and-nasdaq-rallies-are-taking-a-breather-20231117.html