2023-11-17 07:16

AUD/USD ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS Australian jobs market stays strong but not enough to extend AUD upside. US building permits and Fed officials in focus later today. AUD/USD may be in for further downside. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP The Australian dollar has slipped back below the 0.6500 psychological handle once more. Yesterday, we saw Australian employment change data beat estimates despite unemployment ticking 0.1% higher. Overall, the Australian labor market remains tight and will keep the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on its toes. From a USD perspective, continuous jobless claims data rose to levels last seen roughly two years ago alongside an initial claims beat. Recent US economic data is showing signs of weakness but Fed officials fought back with some hawkish messaging in support of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments. The day ahead will be relatively muted but US building permit figures will dominate headlines after yesterday’s NAHB miss. Fed speakers will continue through to today and it will be interesting whether today’s speakers extend the pushback against easing monetary policy. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, TradingView AUD/USD daily price action slumped after Wednesday’s long upper wick close now facing the 0.6459 swing support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows bearish/negative divergence and could see the pair breakdown further should this unfold. If today’s close falls below the 0.6459 swing low, the 50-day moving average (yellow) could come into consideration for AUD bears. 200-day MA 0.6500 Key support levels: 0.6459 50-day MA 0.6358 IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: MIXED (AUD/USD) IGCS shows retail traders are currently net LONG on AUD/USD, with 68% of traders currently holding long positions. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-aud-usd-price-forecast-aussie-dollar-unable-to-exploit-weaker-us-data-wv-20231117.html

2023-11-17 00:30

US DOLLAR FORECAST – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD The U.S. dollar could head lower in the near term The pullback in U.S. Treasury yields will act as a headwind for the greenback This article explores the technical outlook for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD, focusing on price action dynamics and key levels in play Most Read: Gold Price Forecast - XAU/USD Breaks Out as Yields Sink, Fed Pivot Hopes Build The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, has fallen more than 2.15% this month. Over the last couple of days, however, the selling pressure has eased, allowing the broader greenback to perk up modestly. Despite the stabilization, it is likely that the downward correction that began a few weeks ago has not yet run its course. One variable that could weigh on the U.S. currency is the recent move in Treasuries as traders try to front-run the "Fed pivot." For context, yields have pulled back sharply this month, with the downturn accelerating following subdued October U.S. CPI and PPI data. Both of these reports surprised to the downside, sparking a dovish repricing of interest rate expectations. Yields could continue to retrench if economic weakness, clearly displayed in the latest jobless claims numbers, intensifies heading into 2024. This scenario is anticipated as the impact of past tightening measures feeds through the real economy. Another factor that could further depress yields and the U.S. dollar is the massive sell-off in oil, which has plunged nearly 20% this quarter. If the trajectory of declining energy costs persists, inflation will decelerate faster than forecast, reducing the need for an overly restrictive stance by the U.S. central bank. EUR/USD FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD was muted on Thursday following a moderate pullback in the previous session. Despite market indecision, the euro retains a constructive bias against the U.S. dollar, with prices making higher highs and higher lows recently and trading above key moving averages. To reaffirm the bullish perspective, the pair needs to hold above the 200 and 100-day SMA near 1.0765. Successfully defending this support zone could pave the way for the exchange rate to break above the psychological 1.0900 level and advance towards Fibonacci resistance at 1.0960, followed by 1.1075. In case sellers regain strength and push EUR/USD below 1.0765, the short-term bias might shift to a bearish outlook for the common currency. This potential development might lead to a downward move towards 1.0650, with continued weakness heightening the risk of retesting trendline support at 1.0570. EUR/USD TECHNICAL CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView GBP/USD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Thursday saw GBP/USD maintaining a subdued stance, struggling to gather positive impetus, with slight consolidation below the 200-day simple moving average. In the event of escalating losses, primary support rests at 1.2320. Preserving this crucial floor is essential to revive hopes of a sustained uptrend; any failure to do so might lead to a descent toward the 1.2200 threshold. Should the bulls reclaim control, initial resistance is expected at 1.2450/1.2460. Upside clearance of this barrier could invite fresh buying interest, laying the groundwork for a potential rally towards the 100-day simple moving average. On further strength, we could see a move towards 1.2590, which represents the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July/October decline. GBP/USD TECHNICAL CHART GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView Interested in learning how retail positioning can shape the short-term trajectory of AUD/USD? Our sentiment guide discusses the role of crowd mentality in the market. Get the guide now! AUD/USD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Following robust gains earlier in the week, AUD/USD fell on Thursday, with prices slipping beneath the 100-day SMA after being rejected at the 0.6500 handle. Should the retracement continue, support rests at 0.6460 and 0.6395 thereafter. On further weakness, a drop towards 0.6350 is plausible. On the other hand, if the pair resumes its advance, technical resistance is located around the 0.6500 mark. Overcoming this hurdle might present a challenge for the bullish camp, yet a clean and clear breakout could catalyze a rally towards the 200-day simple moving average, a tad below the 0.6600 level/ AUD/USD TECHNICAL CHART AUD/USD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-outlook-shaky-as-yields-tank-setups-on-eur-usd-gbp-usd-aud-usd-20231117.html

2023-11-16 19:05

GOLD PRICES OUTLOOK Gold prices rally and break above technical resistance in the $1,975/$1,980 area Bullion’s gains are driven by a steep pullback in Treasury yields following disappointing economic data This article examines key XAU/USD’s levels worth watching in the coming trading sessions Most Read: EUR/USD Hits Snag After Breakout, Nasdaq 100 Stalls, Oil Prices at Risk of Meltdown Gold prices (XAU/USD) rallied over 1.0% on Thursday, rebounding from a lackluster performance in the preceding trading session, propelled by a significant retreat in U.S. Treasury yields following disappointing labor market data released earlier in the day. Focusing on the catalysts, applications for unemployment benefits for the week ending November 11 rose more than projected, clocking in at 231,000 versus a forecast of 220,000. Continuing jobless claims also surprised to the upside, surging to 1,865,000, the most in nearly two years, hinting at increasing difficulty in finding employment for Americans. US ECONOMIC DATA Lackluster economic indicators, together with encouraging October CPI and PPI figures published yesterday and Tuesday, reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle is over and that the next move will be rate cuts. These expectations weighed on yields, sending the 10-year note below 4.45% and towards its lowest value since late September. With the FOMC’s monetary policy outlook turning more dovish in the eyes of the market, gold could remain in an upward trajectory in the near term, especially if the U.S. dollar extends its recent downward correction. This scenario could materialize if incoming information reveals further economic weakness, as a deteriorating macro landscape may accelerate a Fed pivot. Acquire the knowledge needed for maintaining trading consistency. Grab your "How to Trade Gold" guide for invaluable insights and tips! GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices, measured through futures contracts, took off on Thursday, breaching a key technical ceiling stretching from $1,975 to $1,980. If this breakout is sustained, prices could start consolidating to the upside in the coming days, paving the way for a move toward $2,010/$2,015. Additional gains from here on out might embolden the bullish camp to launch an attack on $2,060. In the event of a bearish reversal, the first line of defense against a downturn is located in the $1,980-$1,975 zone. Although bullion may establish a base in this region on a pullback, a breakdown could trigger a deeper retracement, opening the door for a drop towards cluster support in the $1,950/$1,940 range (several key moving averages converge in this area). Below this floor, the focus shifts to $1,920. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-breaks-out-as-yields-sink-fed-pivot-hopes-build-20231116.html

2023-11-16 17:42

Oil (Brent, WTI) Analysis (EIA) US storage data reveals massive inventory builds as many fear weaker demand Softer economic data continues to flow in for the US (NFP, CPI, retail sales) IG client sentiment offers few clues on potential price path despite net-long positioning The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Brent Crude Under Even More Pressure After Stock Builds Delayed and current EIA data for the week ending the 3rd and 10th of November revealed massive increases in crude storage, weighing heavily on the price. Deteriorating economic data has illuminated the path for lower oil prices but the recent accumulation of oil stocks has simply exacerbated the current sell-off. Brent now trades around the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the broader 2020 to 2022 advance and well below the $82 and psychological $80 mark. The next level of support appears all the way at $71.45 but the market is likely to enter oversold territory before nearing such a level with resistance back at $82. Oil prices have declines as the global growth slowdown continues to weigh on economic activity and we are even seeing a deterioration in relatively well performing US data. Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow The weekly chart shows the major 2020 to 2022 advance along with the many geopolitical shocks of the last three, nearly four years from the pandemic to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and now the conflict in the middle east and worsening data. $71.50 is a key level and OPEC may already be weighing up the possibility of further supply cuts. Brent Crude Oil Weekly Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow The WTI crude chart reveals a very similar move but shows the near-term level of support at $72.50 followed by the Biden administrations former target band of $67 to $72 to replenish SPR levels – something that was later stated would take years to conduct. WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow IG Client Sentiment Mixed Despite Net-Long Positioning Oil- US Crude:Retail trader data shows 83.28% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 4.98 to 1. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggestsOil- US Crude prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Oil - US Crude trading bias. Learn how to read and interpret IG client sentiment data to better inform your trading process by reading our dedicated guide below: https://www.dailyfx.com/news/oil-price-outlookoil-price-outlook-brent-and-wti-suffer-further-losses-brent-and-wti-suffer-further-losses-20231116.html

2023-11-16 15:30

EUR/USD Analysis and Charts EUR/USD jumped this week as US inflation slowed down It has held most of those gains through Thursday’s session Key resistance still eludes the bulls, however Learn How to Trade EUR/USD With our Complimentary Guide The Euro has hung on to most of its recent sharp gains against the United States Dollar in Thursday’s trade but has returned some of them as the remainder of this week is short of obvious trading cues, leaving EUR/USD more adrift. The single currency has risen since early October as global markets have started to believe that, not only will US borrowing costs rise no further, they might just start to come down next year. The latest deceleration in official US consumer-price inflation did no harm at all to this thesis and saw the greenback take a general knock. As a result, EUR/USD has clawed back up to levels not seen since the end of August. It is perhaps tempting to suggest that the Euro’s recent vigor is purely a ‘Dollar weakness’ story. It has certainly come in the absence of first-tier Eurozone data. To be sure the bloc’s performance remains patchy, with local numbers often at least as likely to undermine the euro as support it. Recall the soft Purchasing Managers Index data of early September which sent EUR/USD down to three-month lows. Indeed, the European Commission has this week downgraded its forecasts for growth in the currency bloc this year and next, as higher borrowing costs hit economic activity. In its autumn forecast, the EC looked for growth of 0.6% in 2023, below the hardly thrilling 0.8% predicted before (next year’s call is 1.3% down from 1.4%). The Commission noted that the local economy had lost momentum after a quite robust recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde spoke on Thursday but she stuck broadly to her topic of systemic risk and didn’t have anything much for traders to get excited about. The markets will get a look at final Eurozone core and headline inflation for October on Friday. Both are expected to have relaxed from initial estimates, with the core measure expected to come in at 4.2% on the year, down from 4.5%. The headline measure is tipped at 2.9%, well below the initial 4.3%. As-expected figures may well undermine the Euro as similar signs of relaxing inflation have for the Dollar and the British Pound this week. That release aside the only major number coming up this week will be from the US, in the form of October’s building permit figures. EUR/USD Technical Analysis Chart Compiled Using TradingView Euro bulls are struggling to get EUR/USD convincingly past the psychological 1.0850 resistance mark. Just above it lies 1.08669 which was the first Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from late September 2022’s lows to the high seen in July of this year. That level was surrendered at the end of August, and it now stands as significant resistance. Near-term breaks above this might be suspect, however, as the Euro has jumped above its previous uptrend and, while that might resume, it may need to take some time before it can sustainably retake that retracement level and make a fresh assault on this year’s highs. The pair’s Relative Strength Index is nudging up again toward the ‘overbought’ 70.0 level, which, again, might suggest that the bulls need a pause. The previous uptrend channel now offers support at 1.07843, ahead of November 6’s intraday high of 1.07597. Still, if the market can top 1.0850 and forge up to resistance at 1.0890, it could yet see another leg higher. The week’s close relative to these levels could be instructive for near-term direction. See How IG Retail Sentiment Can Help You When Trading IG’s own client sentiment numbers are mixed, with 42% net long, 58% going short, perhaps emphasizing how unsettled EUR/USD is at current heights. --By David Cottle for DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/eur-usd-holds-up-but-pares-us-inflation-inspired-gains-20231116.html

2023-11-16 13:02

RAND TALKING POINTS & ANALYSIS Rand unable to capitalize on US initial jobless claims data. Fed officials to relate recent US economic data. Bullish divergence at trendline support could see some SUD upside to come. USD/ZAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP Macro-economic fundamentals underpin almost all markets in the global economy via growth, inflation and employment – Get you FREE guide now! The South African rand has reached a key juncture after appreciating against the US dollar post US CPI and PPI while finding support locally through South African retail sales data. Chinese optimism has gained tractions supplementing the ZAR via retail sales and industrial production figures while the Xi-Biden meeting seems to off to a positive start assisting riskier currencies like the rand. Locally, a recent Harvard report was published highlighting plaguing problems facing a struggling economy. State capacity was a dominant theme and a root of many of the country’s challenges. Jobless claims data increased marginally and beat forecasts but had minimal impact on the greenback. The day ahead is US focused with Federal Reserve speakers scattered throughout. Their response to the recent misses on both CPI and PPI will closely watched particularly after Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned of easing monetary policy too quickly. The manner in which the Fed responds going forward is crucial as the Fed credibility comes into question should the path forward change from recent messaging from Mr. Powell. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/ZAR DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, TradingView The daily USD/ZAR chart as mentioned in the title of this article is testing the long-term trendline support (black) that stemmed from late March 2022. A confirmation close below this zone particularly on the weekly chart could spark a further decline. Interestingly. the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is printing higher lows suggestive of bullish/positive divergence that could point to yet another push off support. Resistance levels: 18.7759 200-day MA 18.5000 Support levels: Trendline support 18.0000 17.7000 https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-zar-price-forecast-rand-scans-critical-long-term-support-wv-20231116.html