2023-11-15 15:30

Gold (XAU/USD) Price, Analysis, and Charts UK CPI came in at a two-year low for October The Core measure also ticked lower Gold prices are closing back in on $2000 Learn How to Trade Gold With Our Complimentary Guide Gold Prices continued to rise in Wednesday’s European session, although they did pare gains, as the United Kingdom joined the growing list of developed economies in which inflation’s sinister grip seems to be loosening. Official data showed an annual headline consumer price rise of 4.6% in October. That’s a two-year low and a massive deceleration from the 6.7% seen just a month previously. To be sure, lower fuel prices were behind that slide and they can’t be relied upon to stay down. However, the core inflation measure, which strips them out of the calculation entirely, ticked down as well, to 5.7%, from 6.1%. The figures came just a day after comparable numbers from the US also showed a reduction in price pressures, which also boosted gold. US factory gate prices were also found to have receded on Wednesday, but their impact on financial markets tends to be markedly less pronounced. Still, investors are starting to hope in earnest that the battle against inflation has been won by the world’s monetary authorities, the vast majority of whom have raised interest rates considerably. The markets are starting to look forward to interest rate cuts, perhaps in the first half of next year. For all the yellow metal’s vaunted properties as an inflation hedge, it has suffered as borrowing costs have risen. Investors have been inclined to abandon it and other non-yielding assets for better returns in the bond markets. This explains at least partially why weaker inflation figures can do the trick of lifting both supposed haven assets like gold and traditionally riskier bets such as equities. It’s of course possible that the markets are getting a little ahead of themselves. Despite its relative recent weakness, inflation remains well above central bank targets in much of the world. Interest rates are sure to stay put for at least as long as that’s so. Moreover, those old enough to remember the inflationary days 1970s will also be well aware that inflation can be very difficult to kill once it’s entrenched and may not fade away in quite the linear fashion markets now seem to expect. Still, for now, prices are moving the gold bulls’ way, with gloomy geopolitics in Ukraine and the Middle East also lending support. There’s more heavyweight price data on Friday, with the Eurozone’s final core CPI rate in the spotlight. It’s expected to have eased a little, to 4.2% from 4.5%. It’s safe to assume the gold market will like an as-expected print. Gold Prices Technical Analysis Chart Compiled Using TradingView Gold has now seen a strong, three-day bounce from the $1935/ounce level which probably not coincidentally aligns with the 200-day moving average. It’s as well for the bulls that that level held, as the chart above shows that a move below it would have put the previously dominant downtrend channel uncomfortably close to the market. However, it remains comfortably far off, at $1883.70, a level that now provides support. For now, the $1935 region remains as a likely near-term prop, with the psychologically important $2000 resistance mark in the bulls’ immediate sights. The Relative Strength Indicator crossed above the 50 point barrier in the last session and remains above it. But there’s clearly no sign of overbuying at this point, suggesting that the rally could have enough strength to get back to $2000 and, possibly up to late October’s peak of $2009. November 3’s daily close just above $1993 is probably the next key resistance level for the metal. IG’s own sentiment data finds traders still bullish at the current price, with 65% net long, or expecting prices to rise. --By David Cottle for DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-prices-gain-on-more-signs-global-inflation-rolling-over-20231115.html

2023-11-15 14:05

US Retail Sales Turn Lower in October US retail sales (MoM) -0.1% vs -0.3% est. (prior revised higher to 0.9%) US dollar and Treasury yields recover some lost ground on after the release The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library US retail sales broke its run of six consecutive positive prints in October, dropping 0.1% in the month of October compared to September. In addition, September’s number was revised higher from +0.7% to +0.9%. Retail sales has contributed to the strength of the US economy as US consumers played a large part in the massive outperformance in US GDP for Q3. However softening labour data (NFP, average weekly earnings) and yesterday’s lower CPI print set the tone ahead of retail sales. Markets appear to be reacting to the actual print vs the consensus which has seen the dollar and the 2-year treasury yield rise despite retail sales contracting month on month. Markets will be looking ahead to the Santa rally as we head towards the Christmas period. US Retail Sales Data Drops in October Source: US Census Bureau, Refinitiv, prepared by Richard Snow The dollar and US yields understandable traded slightly higher in the moments after the release while the S&P 500 E-Mini futures edged lower, but still point towards a higher open. Next on the radar is a number of Fed speakers both later today and more so tomorrow. Multi-Asset Reaction 5-mins chart (DXY, US 2-year Treasury yields, S&P 500 continuous futures) Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-breaking-news-retail-sales-beat-pessimistic-estimate-usd-bid-20231115.html

2023-11-15 12:35

Euro Analysis Markets price in the same amount of rate cuts for the ECB as they do in the US EUR/USD contemplating a reversal after surpassing the 200 SMA Risk events: US retail sales and central bank speakers The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library European Futures Market on Pace with US Rate Cuts Despite prominent ECB officials emphatically stating the conversation around rate cuts is premature, the futures market anticipates nearly 100 basis points of cuts in 2024 which paces alongside US expectations. Therefore, the euro no longer holds a notable advantage as far as interest rate expectations are concerned. Implied rate hikes/cuts based off the futures market Source: Refinitiv, prepared by Richard Snow Nevertheless, EUR/USD has put in a strong performance after US inflation data fell encouragingly on Tuesday. The unwinding of US outperformance is forcing markets to reassess whether the world’s largest economy is showing signs of frailty like the rest of the major economies. EUR/USD Contemplating a Reversal After Surpassing 200 SMA A massive move higher of around 1.7% yesterday made a strong case for a bullish reversal, even surpassing the key 200-day simple moving average (SMA) in the process. The 200 SMA is widely followed as a longer-term trend filter as the pair is yet to even test the level, this time as support. 1.0831 is the most immediate level of support and should the pair hold above it, would bode well for further bullish momentum, particularly if US retail sales data continues the trend of weaker fundamental data. EUR/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Major Risk Events for the Week Ahead US retail sales carries more importance in light of the recent trend of softening US data. Markets will be particularly concentrated on the health of the US consumer given the sizeable contribution it made to the massive Q3 GDP figure. Thereafter, the final number for EU core inflation is due but there is little to suggest this will vary much, if at all. Tomorrow there is a notable concentration of Fed speakers and it will be interesting to see if they pose any resistance to the more dovish sentiment moving through markets after the lower US inflation data. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/softer-us-data-propels-eurusd-beyond-key-technical-level-20231115.html

2023-11-15 11:53

Global Bond Yield Analysis US and UK price pressures slow down. Interest rate forecasts point to a series of cuts next year. The bond market is back in the headlines again as global yields slumped yesterday after the release of the latest US inflation report. While Tuesday’s US CPI report showed both readings falling just 0.1% below forecasts, the effect on the US Treasury market, and the dollar, was marked. The yield on the rate-sensitive UST 2-year fell by 20 basis points to 4.85%, the UST 10-year shed 18 basis points, while the UST 30-year fell by 15 basis points on the session. The effect on the US dollar was notable with the greenback losing over one-and-a-half-points on the day. US Inflation Cools to 3.2% in October, US Dollar Sinks but Gold Gains US Dollar Index Daily Chart The latest CME Fed Fund predictions now show 100 basis points of rate cuts over 2024 with the first 25bp cut seen at the May FOMC meeting. CME FedWatch Tool And it is not just in the US that lower rate expectations are building, with the UK and the Euro Area also now registering additional rate cuts for next year. Today’s UK inflation report showed headline inflation dropping sharply – as predicted by BoE chief economist Huw Pill recently – to 4.6% in October from 6.7% in September. UK Breaking News: UK CPI Posts Massive Drop, GBP Offered UK Headline Inflation A look at UK rate expectations for next year indicates the first 25 rate cut in June with two additional quarter-point cuts over the second half of the year. And in the Euro Area, markets are now predicting in excess of 90 basis points of rate cuts over next year with the first cut seen in June, or potentially at the April meeting. With financial markets now actively pricing in interest rate cuts, risk markets look more attractive. The recent rallies in a range of equity markets have been driven by investors looking to put their money to work in riskier assets, and this theme looks likely to continue in the months ahead. Charts via TradingView What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/global-bond-yields-hammered-as-markets-upgrade-interest-rate-cut-expectations-20231115.html

2023-11-15 10:30

Article by IG Senior Market Analyst Axel Rudolph FTSE100, DAX 40, S&P 500 Analysis and Charts FTSE 100 rallies on softer US and UK inflation The FTSE 100 is on track for its third consecutive day of gains on softer US and UK inflation with the early November high at 7,484 being retested. Further up beckons the 55-day simple moving average at 7,503. If exceeded, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,606 would be back in the frame. Support below Wednesday’s 7,430 low can be found between the breached one-month tentative downtrend line at 7,406 and the early September and early October lows at 7,384 to 7,369. FTSE 100 Daily Chart DAX 40 reaches 200-day simple moving average The DAX 40’s rally from its 14,589 October low accelerated to the upside with the index rallying by 1.76% on Tuesday on softer US consumer price inflation (CPI) and as the German ZEW economic sentiment came in much stronger than expected. The index is now flirting with the 200-day simple moving average at 15,656 which may short-term cap. Once bettered on a daily chart closing basis, the late August and September peaks at 15,992 to 16,044 should enter the fray. Potential slips should find support between the early October high at 15,575 and the mid-September low at 15,561. Further minor support sits at the late September 15,518 high. DAX 40 Daily Chart S&P 500 nears the September peak at 4,540 The sharp rally in the S&P 500 has gained even more upside momentum amid softer-than-expected US inflation data and as 10-year US treasury yields slid below the 4.50% mark. The early and mid-September highs at 4,516 to 4,540 represent the next upside targets ahead of the 4,607 July high. Potential slips may find support around the 11 September high at 4,491 and further down around the 24 August high at 4,474. S&P 500 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ftse-100-dax-40-and-s-p-500-extend-gains-on-softer-us-and-uk-inflation-20231115.html

2023-11-15 09:17

AUD/USD ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS Australian wage growth the highest since 2009. Focus now shifts to US PPI and retail sales data. AUD/USD bulls look to break 0.65 handle. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP Precious and base metals are broadly higher adding to AUD upside today ahead of US PPI and retail sales. PPI is generally seen as a leading indicator that could give an indication as to inflation (CPI) going forward. If actual data falls in line with estimates, the US dollar may weaken further. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, TradingView AUD/USD price action shows the pair back at the 0.6500 psychological level once again. The level has held firm since mid-August but may be giving way soon. The next zone under scrutiny will be the 200-day moving average (blue) from a bullish perspective but a close above the November swing high is needed before bulls can push the pair higher. Key resistance levels: 0.6596 200-day MA Key support levels: 0.6459 50-day MA 0.6358 IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: BULLISH (AUD/USD) IGCS shows retail traders are currently net LONG on AUD/USD, with 62% of traders currently holding long positions. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-aud-usd-price-forecast-australian-wage-growth-hits-fresh-highs-wv-20231115.html