2023-11-13 14:30

USD/JPY Analysis and Charts USD/JPY is close to 2022’s high of 151.94 That in turn was a 30-year top Strong US consumer price numbers could see the Dollar smash through this again Learn How to Trade USD/JPY With our Complimentary Guide The Japanese Yen was lower against the US Dollar in Europe and Asia on Monday with USD/JPY set for a fourth straight day of gains and, more pertinently, closing in on 2022’s thirty-year peaks. The Japanese unit has been battered all year by the Bank of Japan’s disinclination to join in the global round of interest-rate hikes which came in turn as a response to rising inflation. The BoJ’s view has remained that domestic pricing power remains weak and that a response to transitory global factors isn’t appropriate. Indeed, the BoJ disappointed markets at the end of October when its scheduled policy meeting produced no more than a very modest tweak to a long-held program of yield curve control. This aims to keep ten-year local ten-year bond yields capped at an unenticing 1%. Governor Ueda reportedly told markets he still hadn’t seen enough evidence to feel confident that trending inflation will sustainably hit two percent.” Cue another hammering for the Yen. The US Dollar is now within a whisker of 2022’s high point of 151.94, a three-decade high. Market focus has now returned to the ‘USD’ side of the pair, with key official US inflation figures due on Tuesday. Economists expect that headline consumer price inflation will have relaxed to an annualized pace of 3.3% last month, from 3.7% in September. However, the more meaningful core rat which strips out the volatile effects of food and fuel prices is expected to have remained steady at 4.1%. While as-expected or weaker numbers are likely to cement the view that US interest rates will end the year unchanged, possibly weakening the Dollar, a stronger print could see expectations of further rate hikes quickly priced in, with the greenback then set to surge. Continued Dollar strength against the Yen seems likely in all scenarios though, even if lower inflation data see USD/JPY slip somewhat with other cross-rates. Gross Domestic Product figures from Japan are also due long after the European market close on Tuesday. While these aren’t likely to garner anything like the attention of the US data, they are expected to be quite weak. If they are, that will weigh further on the Yen, USD/JPY Technical Analysis Chart Compiled Using TradingView USD/JPY has been rising consistently since mid-January since when the Dollar’s value has risen by an astonishing 29 Yen. The most meaningful current uptrend channel on the daily chart starts from early August, though, with five attempts at the channel top having failed so far. For now, the pair is closer to the channel base but that may simply be explained by some natural caution as that 2022 top at 151.94 nears (at 1330 GMT Tuesday the pair was at 151.77). It seems highly likely that this week will see a new high made above that level, but it may be more useful to see how comfortable the Dollar looks above that on, say, a weekly closing basis. Above it, the Dollar bulls will look to challenge the channel top once again. That comes in a good way above the current market at 153.95, a height not seen since mid-1990. Still, as might be expected, the Dollar is starting to look overbought now, if not yet dramatically so. USD/JPY’s Relative Strength Index comes in at 62.1, high, for sure, but still below the 70.00 level which suggests extreme overbuying. Reversals are likely to find near-term support at the channel base, currently 149.71, ahead of November 6’s low of 148.89. Should that lower level give way, the focus would then turn to the first Fibonacci retracement of the entire rise up from January 13’s low. That comes in at 146.16, well below this new week’s market. IG’s own client sentiment indicator finds fully 85% of traders net short at current levels, a number that might argue for a contrarian long-side play. See How Retail Sentiment Can Affect USD/JPY Price Action --By David Cottle for DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/usd-jpy-nears-thirty-year-peak-as-us-inflation-data-loom-20231113.html

2023-11-13 12:58

AUD/USD ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS RBA’s Kohler and China new yuan loans beat couple to sustain AUD. RBA pricing remains open for future rate hikes. AUD/USD cautious ahead of US CPI tomorrow. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP The Australian dollar has benefitted from a hawkish narrative presented by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Kohler earlier this morning. The Assistant Governor highlighted the path to bring down inflationary pressures in Australia may be tougher than expected. As with the United States, a tight labor market has been a key contributor to elevated inflation in Australia. Money markets have therefore kept the door open for an additional interest rate hike in 2024 (refer to table below) as investors await further incoming data. RBA INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES Source: Refinitiv China’s new yuan loans were released early in the European trading session and although the figure fell sharply from the prior print, new yuan loans exceeded forecasts coming in at CNY738.4B vs CNY665B expected. This comes in an environment where the Chinese government has flooded the local market with cash while easing monetary policy conditions by cutting interest rates. Inflation has been falling and commodity linked pro-growth currencies like the AUD require a strong Chinese economy to gain traction against the USD. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, TradingView Yet another failure by AUD bulls at the 0.6500 psychological resistance level now keeps the pair below the 50-day moving average (yellow) and above the 0.6358 key support zone. The current daily candle looks to be forming a long upper wick and should this candle close in this fashion, further downside may ensure for AUD/USD. Key resistance levels: 0.6500 0.6459 50-day MA Key support levels: 0.6358 0.6272 IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: MIXED (AUD/USD) IGCS shows retail traders are currently net LONG on AUD/USD, with 82% of traders currently holding long positions. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-aud-usd-price-forecast-rba-kohler-reinforces-aussie-dollar-wv-20231113.html

2023-11-13 11:31

EUR/USD Forecast - Prices, Charts, and Analysis US and Euro Area inflation releases dominate this week’s economic calendar. Federal Reserve speakers are out in force this week. The Euro is eyeing 1.0700 against the US dollar in early turnover with little in the way of news, or sentiment, to make or break the move. The US dollar is fractionally weaker to start the week, while risk sentiment is flat after last Friday’s notable risk-on move. This week’s sees the latest Euro Area and US inflation reports released, along with Euro Area growth and German sentiment. These data releases all have market-moving potential, especially the CPI reports after Chair Powell doubled down on the Fed’s fight against inflation last week. Gold (XAU/USD) Slips Lower After Fed Powell’s Warning, UST 30-Year Bond Sale Flop In addition to the above economic data, there are 18 Federal Reserve speeches this week across a variety of events. Speakers include John Williams, Michael Barr, Loretta Mester, Lisa Cook, and Susan Collins. Traders should be aware of when these speeches are scheduled for release and take note of any monetary commentary. Learn How to Trade Economic News with our Complimentary Guide EUR/USD is currently stuck in the middle of three simple moving averages with the 20- and 5-day smas providing support, while the 200-day sma is overhead and acting as resistance. Support for EUR/USD is seen in a zone between 1.0610 (38.2% Fib retracement) and horizontal support at 1.0635 with the two smas stuck in the middle. There are a few recent highs between 1.0750 and 1.0768 that guard the 200-dsma at 1.0801. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart – November 13, 2023 All Charts via TradingView What is your view on the EURO – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/euro-eur-latest-heavyweight-data-and-fed-chatter-to-direct-eur-usd-this-week-20231113.html

2023-11-13 09:49

Article by IG Senior Market Analyst Axel Rudolph FTSE 100, DAX 40, Nasdaq 100 Analysis and Charts FTSE 100 tries to begin the week on a positive footing The FTSE 100 has come off Thursday’s 7,466 high amid hawkish comments by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell and as the British economy stalled in the third quarter and slid to 7,320 on Friday before recovering. A rise above Friday’s 7,422 high would engage the one-month resistance line at 7,434 ahead of last week’s high at 7,466 and the early November high and 55-day simple moving average at 7,484 to 7,502. If overcome, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,610 would be back in the picture. Minor support below Monday’s intraday low at 7,359 is seen at Friday’s 7,320 low. In case of it being slipped through, a fall toward the October low at 7,258 may ensue. The 7,258 low was made close to the 7,228 to 7,204 March-to-August lows which represents significant support. FTSE 100 Daily Chart See How IG Client Sentiment Can Affect Price Action DAX 40 remains immediately bid while above 15,171 The DAX 40’s rally from its 14,589 October low took it to last week’s high at 15,366 before slipping to Friday’s low at 15,171. While remaining above this level, further upside should be in store with the July-to-November downtrend line and 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 15,342 representing the first upside target ahead of the 15,366 high. Were it to be exceeded, the 15,455 to 15,575 July-to-mid-September lows and the mid-October high would represent major resistance. Support below the October-to-November uptrend line at 15,227 and Friday’s 15,171 low can be found at last week’s 15,067 low. Further down lie the minor psychological 15,000 mark and the early October low at 14,944. DAX 40 Daily Chart Nasdaq 100 grapples with resistance The Nasdaq 100 surged ahead on Friday and reached levels last traded in September between the 15,520 to 15,628 early to mid-September highs by rising to 15,543. Moody’s downgrade on the US credit rating from “stable” to “negative” while affirming its Aaa rating - the highest investment grade - put a dampener on US stock indices such as the Nasdaq 100 which is trading slightly lower in pre-open trading and ahead of Tuesday’s inflation data. Support comes in around the 15,339 October peak. While the next lower 15,139 Thursday low underpins, the steep upside momentum from the last couple of weeks remains in play. Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ftse-100-dax-40-and-nasdaq-100-remain-overall-bid-ahead-of-tuesday-s-us-inflation-reading-20231113.html

2023-11-13 07:03

POUND STERLING ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS All eyes shift to economic data to guide monetary policy forecasts. Fed and BoE speakers to come. GBP/USD holds above 1.22 within bear flag. GBPUSD FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP The British pound kicks off the trading week marginally higher against the US dollar after a significant depreciation last week. A hawkish Fed Chair Jerome Powell kept the greenback supported throughout as markets prepare for key economic data from both the UK and US throughout the week. Earlier this morning Rightmove announced that UK housing prices have fallen at its quickest pace in five years reiterating the tight credit conditions as a result of high interest rates delivered by the Bank of England (BoE). Source: Office for National Statistics TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG Daily GBP/USD price action trades between the 50-day moving average (yellow) and the 1.2200 psychological handle, while continuing within the developing bear flag pattern (black). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlights hesitancy at the moment hovering around the midpoint level. Short-term directional bias will be attained through the upcoming data releases. Key resistance levels: 200-day MA (blue) Flag resistance 1.2308 50-day MA (yellow) Key support levels: 1.2200 1.2100/Flag support 1.2000 1.1804 MIXED IG CLIENT SENTIMENT (GBP/USD) IG Client Sentiment Data (IGCS) shows retail traders are currently net LONG on GBP/USD with 69% of traders holding long positions (as of this writing). https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-gbp-price-forecast-pound-tentative-as-key-uk-us-data-looms-wv-20231113.html

2023-11-12 17:00

Market Week Ahead: US Dollar, Gold, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, Cryptocurrencies A strong end to the week with risk markets popping higher going into the weekend. Equity markets reclaimed Thursday’s minor losses and continued to push ahead, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 both printing fresh multi-week highs. The VIX ‘fear gauge’ fell by over 7% on Friday and is back testing lows last seen in mid-September. VIX Daily Chart In the alternative asset class space, a wide range of cryptocurrencies surged on increased volume. Talk that a Bitcoin spot ETF may be launched before November 17th underpinned the recent Bitcoin rally, while ETH jumped on news that BlackRock had applied to the SEC for an Ethereum spot ETF. Two months ago the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at USD1.0 trillion, today that market capitalization is at USD1.42 trillion. The US dollar had a confusing week as US Treasury yields slumped, then jumped and ended the week near the week’s high. Chair Powell’s hawkish comments that he was not sure if the Fed had enough to temper inflation sent bond yields higher, while an extremely weak US 30-year bond auction pushed yields even higher. The US dollar followed moves in the US bond market and ended the week on a high. US Treasury 30-Year Yield Gold had a tough week and ended at a fresh three-week low as investors moved away from safe-haven assets and into a variety of risk-on markets. Higher bond yields also weighed on the precious metal which is now testing a range of technical levels. Technical and Fundamental Forecasts – w/c November 13th British Pound Outlook: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and GBP/AUD Latest The British Pound remains vulnerable to further losses against the US dollar but continues to move back towards a multi-year high against the Japanese Yen. GBP/AUD set for a six-day rally. EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Stern Powell Keeps Pressure on the Euro EUR/USD prices enter the week facing multiple economic data reports including US and euro area CPI. Euro area headline inflation is expected to drop sharply to 2.9% from 4.3% which could weigh negatively on the euro should this actualize. Crypto Weekly Forecast: Bitcoin Taps $38k as Ethereum ETF Sparks Rally Ethereum ETF Potential sparks a renewed crypto rally. According to reports the SEC is set to decide on Spot Bitcoin ETF applications by the 17th. If true are BTC and ETH about to explode? Gold/Silver Weekly Forecast: Precious Metals Susceptible to Sell-Off Gold and silver have witnessed respective declines as the ‘war premium’ dissipates and the dollar recovers lost ground on the back of Powell’s hawkish comments. US Dollar Outlook Hinges on US Inflation, Setups on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD The October U.S. inflation report will take center stage in the upcoming week. An upside surprise in CPI numbers might boost the greenback across the board, while lower-than-expected figures could have the opposite effect. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/market-week-ahead-gold-slides-markets-turn-risk-on-gbp-usd-eur-usd-cryptos-jump-20231112.html