2023-11-10 01:45

CRUDE OIL, MEXICAN PESO OUTLOOK Crude oil prices approaching $75, the lowest since July Banxico pivots to a less aggressive monetary policy stance Key levels to watch on MXN/JPY Most Read: US Dollar Flies on Hawkish Powell - Setups on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, Gold WTI crude oil prices are on the cusp of dipping below $75, marking the lowest point since July on a closing basis. This downward trend is fueled by speculations surrounding a slowdown in the economies of major oil-consuming nations. Factors contributing to this decline include a surge in crude oil inventories in the United States and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Powell hinting at the potential for further monetary tightening, adding to the pressure in the energy sector. Hedge funds and speculators operating in the futures market are actively unwinding their long positions in crude oi in response to recent price action dynamics. Despite this, the persistently high level of long positions compared to pre-summer levels suggests the potential for additional reduction in bullish bets, which could exacerbate downward momentum. WTI Crude Oil Futures Positioning (Speculators) CRUDE OIL PRICE OUTLOOK WTI crude oil prices have broken through support at $80 per barrel and are currently hovering around the $75 mark. From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 50 and appears oversold, but remains above the 30.00 threshold, indicating some room for further weakness. The occurrence of a "death cross," where the 9-day moving average moves below the 200-day moving average, adds another bearish cue to the mix. With these negative signals on the technical front and hedge fund positioning a potential headwind, there's a possibility that WTI crude oil prices may deepen their losses, descending below $75. This could set the stage for a decline towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $73.06, based on the observed price movements from June 28 to September 28. Start your voyage to becoming a knowledgeable oil trader today. Don't let the occasion to acquire vital insights and strategies pass you by – obtain your 'How to Trade Oil' guide immediately! WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE DAILY CHART Source: TradingView BANXICO MONETARY POLICY MEETING The movement of crude oil prices is crucial for the Mexican Peso, as oil is a major commodity for Mexico. Adding to the equation is Banxico's latest monetary policy announcement. For context, policymakers kept borrowing costs at a record high, but hinted at a potential cut in the post-meeting statement, resulting in some weakening of the currency against major counterparts. This tweak in guidance contrasts with Banxico's previous assurance of no immediate plans for easing, marking a noteworthy shift in the central bank's stance. Following the latest decision, financial markets have adjusted their expectations, factoring in an increased likelihood of a rate cut within the next six months. MXN/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK MXN/JPY has breached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 8.509 yen, based on price movements from July 13 to August 28, transitioning into a trend of a stronger Mexican Peso and weaker Japanese Yen. While the RSI has crossed above 50, indicating overbought conditions for MXN, it has fallen below 70, suggesting further room for MXN strength and JPY weakness. Focusing on the near-term price outlook, in case of MXN/JPY strength, attention should be directed towards resistance at 8.698 (September 20 high). A successful breach of this barrier may reinforce upside pressure, opening the door for a move towards the yearly high at 8.777. Conversely, in the event of an MXN/JPY weakness, focus should be on whether the Fibonacci 38.2% level at 8.509 holds. If taken out, the MXN/JPY may slide towards Fibonacci support at 8.343. MXN/JPY CHART Source: TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/crude-oil-mexican-peso-forecast-wti-eyes-75-level-banxico-pivots-20231110.html

2023-11-09 22:30

US DOLLAR FORECAST – EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD & GOLD The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, rallies on soaring U.S. bond yields Powell’s hawkish comments reinforce the greenback’s advance This article examines EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD and gold prices from a technical standpoint, analyzing key levels to watch in the coming days Most Read: Gold, Silver Prices Perk Up, Palladium in Freefall, Key Levels for XAU/USD, XAG/USD The broader U.S. dollar began the session on a subdued tone but rallied in afternoon trading, driven by soaring yields following lackluster demand for U.S. government securities at an important Treasury auction. The greenback's upward momentum was later supercharged by Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish statements during a panel organized by the IMF. In public remarks, the FOMC chief said that policymakers are not confident that they have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance to return inflation to the 2.0% target in a sustained manner. He also indicated that further progress on cooling price pressures is not guaranteed and that stronger growth could warrant higher rates. When it was all said and done, the DXY index was up nearly 0.4% on the day. Taken together, Powell’s comments suggest that the central bank is not 100% convinced that the hiking cycle is over. This could mean another possible hike next month or in January, especially if financial conditions continue to ease, as has been the case since late October (tech stocks have been on a bullish tear ignoring today’s performance). Will the U.S. dollar top out soon or the recent rally continue? Get all the answers in our Q4 trading forecast guide! Related: Australian Dollar Forecast - AUD/USD Extends Bearish Reversal in Fakeout Fallout In terms of analysts’ projections, headline CPI is forecast to have risen 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis last month, bringing the annual rate down to 3.3% from 3.7% previously. The core gauge, for its part, is seen increasing 0.3% monthly, resulting in a yearly reading of 4.3% - unchanged from September. With the Fed hypersensitive to incoming information and fearful of inflationary risks, any upward deviation of official data from consensus estimates should boost bond yields and strengthen the case for higher interest rates for longer. This scenario would be positive for the greenback, but negative for gold, the euro, the Australian dollar and the yen. EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS After facing rejection from Fibonacci resistance at 1.0765, EUR/USD has undergone a quick pullback, with the exchange rate now flirting the lower limit of a support band at 1.0650. The bulls must defend this floor at all costs – failure to do so can send the pair reeling, driving prices toward trendline support at 1.0555. On further weakness, the possibility of a retest of the 2023 lows come into view. In case the market turns and sentiment swings in favor of the bulls, the first technical barrier to watch appears at 1.0765, where the 200-day simple moving average aligns with the 38.2% Fib retracement of the July/October decline. Overcoming this confluence of key levels could reinforce the bullish momentum, paving the way for a move towards 1.0840. EUR/USD TECHNICAL CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pulled back last week, but has reasserted its upward momentum, taking out an important ceiling at 150.90 and charging towards its 2022 and 2023 highs, just shy of the psychological 152.00 mark. With prices on a bullish tear and approaching an important tech zone, traders should exercise caution as Tokyo may step in any minute to curb speculative activity and prevent further yen depreciation. In the event of FX intervention by Japanese authorities, USD/JPY could quickly sink below 150.90 and head towards the 149.00 handle. On further weakness, the focus shifts to 147.25, followed by 146.00. If Tokyo stays out of currency markets and allows the exchange to drift above 152.00, a potential rally towards the upper boundary of a medium-term rising channel at 153.40 becomes conceivable. USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView AUD/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD fell for the fourth straight session on Thursday, erasing all gains accumulated following last week’s bullish breakout, which turned out to be a fakeout. After this pullback, the pair has arrived at an important support near 0.6350. The integrity of this area level is vital; a failure to maintain it could result in a drop towards 0.6325. On further weakness, a revisit to this year's lows could be in the cards. Despite the recent setback for the Australian dollar, the bullish scenario should not be entirely dismissed. That said, if the bulls engineer a comeback and trigger a rebound off current levels, overhead resistance appears around the 0.6400 handle, followed by 0.6460. Successfully overcoming this technical barrier could reignite bullish momentum, opening the door for a rally toward the November highs near 0.6500. AUD/USD TECHNICAL CHART AUD/USD Chart Created Using TradingView GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Earlier this week, gold reversed lower when the bulls failed to take out a critical ceiling in the $2,010/$2,015 area. However, XAU/USD has started to perk up after this setback, with prices encountering support around the 200-day simple moving average ahead of a modest bounce. If gains pick up pace in the coming trading sessions, initial resistance appears at $1,980, followed by $2,010/$2,015. Conversely, if sellers return and regain the upper hand in financial markets, the first floor to monitor is positioned at $1,945, which aligns with the 200-day SMA. Although gold might find a foothold in this region during a pullback, a breakdown could prompt a descent towards $1,920. Below this region, the focus transitions to $1,900. GOLD PRICE CHART (FUTURES CONTRACTS) Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-flies-on-hawkish-powell-setups-on-eur-usd-usd-jpy-aud-usd-gold-20231109.html

2023-11-09 19:23

OIL PRICE FORECAST: Oil Continues to Advance as Supply Concerns and Potential Rebound in Demand Keep Prices Elevated. Saudi Energy Minister to Provide a Further Update this Week on the Potential for Further Cuts or an Extension into 2024. IG Client Sentiment Shows Traders are 79% Net-Short on WTI at Present. To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. Most Read: What is OPEC and What is Their Role in Global Markets? Oil prices are attempting a recovery today having breached the 200-day MA for the first time since July 24. This is a big milestone that comes amid concerns of weakening demand and increasing stockpiles. The idea that interest rates may remain restrictive for a while to come has also weighed down on oil prices as we head toward the end of the year. INVENTORIES BUILD AND EIA DELAY DATA RELEASE As previously discussed, the uncertainty around a Chinese recovery has not been felt by markets in 2023 as the worlds second largest economy has bought Oil at a record pace in order to replenish reserves. However, the uncertainty will continue until it appears that the Chinese authorities are happy with the levels. At the moment though the bigger fear lies in a slowdown in the US. There have been signs of late that the cumulative tightening by the FED is beginning to bear fruit as US Data shows some signs of strain. According to reports U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 11.9 million barrels over the week to Nov. 3, citing API data. If this number turns out to be correct it would be the the biggest weekly build since February. The US EIA for its art has delayed its report his week owing to an upgrade which has left market participants in a conundrum of sorts. LOOKING AHEAD Attention is likely to turn now toward next week which will see updates from both the OPEC and IEA on the global supply and demand conditions. OPEC meanwhile is scheduled to meet at the end of the month for a discussion on its output policy heading into 2024 as the prospect of Venezuela returning to higher production levels likely to be discussed as well. We do not have a lot in terms of data which could have a material impact on oil prices. We do however have Michigan Consumer Sentiment Data and a couple of Fed policymakers scheduled to speak tomorrow. This could add volatility to the US Dollar and could have a short-term impact on the price of oil. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK AND FINAL THOUGHTS From a technical perspective WTI has finally broken below the 200-day MA and yet appears to be running out of steam. Looking at the daily candle and we have failed to slip below Yesterdays low and look on course for an inverted hammer candle close. If this does not come to fruition than there is a real chance of continued downside with the initial support area resting around the 73.06 handle. Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Support levels: 73.06 70.12 68.00 Resistance levels: 76.95 78.11 80.00 WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart – November 9, 2023 Source: TradingView IG CLIENT SENTIMENT IG Client Sentiment data tells us that 87% of Traders are currently holding Long positions. Given the contrarian view adopted here at DailyFX toward client sentiment, Is WTI Destined to fall further? https://www.dailyfx.com/news/oil-price-forecast-wti-eyeing-a-rebound-after-slipping-below-200-day-ma-20231109.html

2023-11-09 19:00

SILVER, GOLD OUTLOOK: Gold and silver prices rebound, but their upside is capped by the move in bond yields Palladium sinks to its lowest level in more than 5 years This article explores XAU/USD and XAG/USD’s key technical levels to monitor in the coming trading sessions Most Read: Gold, Silver Price Forecast: XAU/USD & XAG/USD May Get Boost from Macro Trends Gold and silver prices rebounded on Thursday after several Federal Reserve officials expressed caution about what the next steps should be in terms of monetary policy, with Atlanta Fed’s Bostic indicating that the central bank's stance is probably sufficiently restrictive and Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee warning against an interest rate overshoot. However, gains in both metals were capped by the movement in bonds. Yields have trended lower over the past week, but in today's session, they experienced a strong rally, especially those on the back end, thereby limiting the upside for XAU/USD and XAG/USD. Meanwhile, palladium plummeted, sinking more than 4% towards the $1,000 mark and hitting its weakest point in more than 5 years as its fundamentals continued to deteriorate. Demand for palladium, used in catalytic converters to reduce emissions from gasoline-powered vehicles, has been negatively affected in recent years by the rapid societal shift to electric cars. The substitution of palladium for cheaper platinum has also hurt the metal, which is expected to be in structural surplus in 2024. Against this backdrop, prices could fall below $1,000 and stay beneath that threshold before long. Turning back to gold and silver, their near-term prospects will likely depend more on the dynamics of monetary policy, the broader U.S. dollar, and geopolitics. On the geopolitical front, Israel's invasion of Gaza following the Hamas terrorist attacks, while tragic, has not degenerated into a broader Middle East conflict involving other countries, such as Iran or Lebanon. This could reduce the demand for safe-haven assets, temporarily limiting the appetite for precious metals. Be that as it may, there are reasons to be optimistic about gold and silver. One catalyst that could put upward pressure on their prices is the trend in yields. Last month, the yield on 10-year bond topped 5.0%, but has since undergone a sharp correction, trading today at around 4.65%. If the downturn in rates accelerates on the back of renewed recession fears, XAU/USD and XAG/USD may have scope to rally further. Acquire the knowledge needed for maintaining trading consistency. Grab your "How to Trade Gold" guide for invaluable insights and tips! GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Earlier this week, gold experienced a minor setback when the bulls failed to breach a key ceiling in the $2,010/$2,015 range. However, prices have started to perk up after encountering support around the 200-day simple moving average, paving the way for Thursday’s modest advance. If gains accelerate in the coming days, resistance is located at $1,980. On further strength, the focus shifts to $2,010/$2,015 again. On the other hand, if the bears stage a comeback and propel prices downward, the first area to keep an eye on is $1,945, which aligns with the 200-day SMA. Although gold might find support in this region during a retracement, a breakdown could pave the way for a slump towards $1,920. Below this threshold, the spotlight turns to the psychological $1,900 level. GOLD PRICE CHART (FRONT-MONTH FUTURES) Source: TradingView SILVER PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS After selling off in recent days, silver appears to have stabilized around trendline support at $22.65. If prices manage to rebound sustainably from current levels, technical resistance is located at $23.35, just around the 200-day simple moving average. Upside clearance of this ceiling could rekindle bullish momentum, paving the way for a retest of the psychological $24.00 level. Conversely, if sellers regain control of the market and push prices below $22.65, we could witness a pullback towards $22.20. In case of continued weakness, the attention will shift to the October lows near the $21.00 mark. SILVER PRICE CHART (FRONT-MONTH FUTURES) Source: TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-silver-prices-perk-up-palladium-in-freefall-key-levels-for-xau-usd-xag-usd-20231109.html

2023-11-09 16:33

EUR/USD, PRICE FORECAST: EUR/USD Hovers Around the 1.0700 Level as Market Participants Seek Clarity. Technicals Hint at a Potential Run Toward the 1.0800 Handle As we Await Comments from Central Bank Presidents Lagarde and Powell. IG Client Sentiment Shows Majority of EURUSD Traders Remain Long. To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. WEEKLY FORECAST: Gold Price Forecast: $1950 Key Support Approaches as Bears Eye Further Downside The Euro appears to be gaining some traction against the Greenback of late. The 1.0700 handle however has proved stubborn with EURUSD unable to maintain gains once crossing the threshold. Markets continue to remain optimistic that the Fed are done with rate hikes despite mixed messages from Fed Policymakers. ECB BULLETIN This morning brought the release of the ECB Economic Bulletin which weighed slightly on the Euro sending EURUSD below the 1.0700 handle. There was not a lot that surprised here with the key takeaways being that the economy is likely to remain weak for the remainder of 2023. The ECB further elaborated that subdued foreign demand and tighter financing conditions are increasingly weighing on investment and consumer spending. Full ECB Bulletin FED POLICYMAKERS The lack of high impact data has left markets searching for a catalyst this week. Fed policymakers have provided mixed messaging this week and this has resulted in the mixed and choppy price action for the majority of the week. Following hawkish comments from policymakers Kashkari and Bowman today we heard from Rafael Bostic who struck a more dovish tone. We do have comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde and FED Chair Jerome Powell later today. Market participants will be hoping that some clarity will be provided by the respective Central Bank heads ahead of some US data tomorrow. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK AND FINAL THOUGHTS Looking at EURUSD and the overall conditions remain pretty much the same. No signs of major escalation in both the Russia-Ukraine and Middle East conflict are likely to keep safe haven demand at bay. This has certainly been the case of the last week and has weighed on the US Dollar and DXY which has struggled to regain its bullish momentum. I do however like the way price action is setting up at the moment following yesterday's hammer candlestick close on the Daily timeframe. Price appears to have found support around the 1.0680-1.0700 support area which leads me to believe that a test of resistance at 1.0750 and a potential run toward the 1.0800 handle may be on the way. A renewed selloff in the US Dollar would help and may come to fruition with Fed Chair Powell speaking later today and potentially US data tomorrow. Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Resistance levels: 1.0750 1.0800 1.0840 Support levels: 1.0680-1.0700 1.0627 1.0550 EUR/USD Daily Chart – November 9, 2023 Source: TradingView IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA IGCSshows retail traders are currently Net-Long on EURUSD, with 57% of traders currently holding LONG positions. Give the contrarian view adopted at DailyFX toward Client Sentiment, is EURUSD destined to drop back toward the 1.0600 handle? https://www.dailyfx.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-fed-ecb-president-to-facilitate-a-move-toward-1-0800-20231109.html

2023-11-09 15:15

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP Analysis Cable struggles to build momentum ahead of UK GDP report EUR/GBP threatens to breakout but faces stern level of resistance UK GDP anticipated to reveal subdued growth in Q3 The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Cable struggles to build momentum ahead of UK GDP Report GBP/USD has failed to build on prior bullish momentum and instead has continued to pull back towards 1.2200 after breaching well above 1.2345 – a prior swing low. The FX market in general has struggled for direction recently as major central banks near their respective peaks as far as interest rates are concerned. The dollar has come under risk recently after a string of softer economic data such as PMI and labour data (NFP, Unemployment rate and average earnings). Now the Fed’s very own GDPNow forecast tool shows a markedly lower figure of 1.2% growth forecast for the final quarter of the year – a sizeable drop from the 4.9% rise in Q3. Therefore, if the softer data really starts to take hold, the dollar could see further declines which would elevate GBP/USD over time. This however is a longer-term outlook but remains something to consider as the pair attempts to make higher highs and higher lows. GBP/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow EUR/GBP Threatens to Breakout but Faces Stern Level of Resistance EUR/GBP has shown resilience and has approached the zone of resistance around 0.8725 once again. While the recent bullish lift is impressive, the zone of resistance has proven a really tough obstacle to overcome. Throughout large parts of October price action tested this zone without any subsequent momentum. Tomorrow’s UK GDP print may provide a catalyst for intra-day volatility but in the grander scheme of things the growth outlook for the UK remains subdued and unlikely to see a massive beat to the upside. Resistance remains at the zone of resistance with near-term support at 0.8702 and a more appropriate level of support further down at 0.8635. EUR/GBP Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Risk Events for Tomorrow UK GDP is the major piece of data heading into the weekend and consensus estimates don’t look great for the UK economy. The Bank of England’s recent forecast for 2023 has the UK economy narrowly expanding by 0.5%. Anaemic growth is likely to continue into 2024 where economy is anticipated to achieve zero growth before rising slightly in 2025. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/pound-update-sterling-eases-ahead-of-uk-gdp-report-20231109.html