2023-11-09 13:20

Bitcoin (BTC) Prices, Charts, and Analysis: Bitcoin looking at $37.3k as the next level of resistance. Spot ETFs would change the landscape for Bitcoin. At the end of October, we identified a Bullish Pennant pattern forming on the daily Bitcoin chart, along with a Golden Cross, another positive technical set-up. Since then Bitcoin has rallied by around $3,000 and is currently eyeing the next level of resistance at $37.3k. This level looks vulnerable and a concerted push would open the way to the next level of interest at $40k. Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Outlook – Charts Suggests Higher Prices are Likely Bitcoin guide Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Price Chart – November 9, 2023 The driving force behind the latest move higher is the growing belief that the SEC will shortly grant a raft of spot Bitcoin ETF applications. According to Bloomberg research, there is a window between November 9 and November 17 when all twelve ETF applications could be approved. The Bloomberg analysts assign a 90% chance that a Bitcoin ETF will be approved before January 10, 2024. Looking further ahead, the $40k level may not hold Bitcoin for long. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization may well accelerate higher if/when spot ETFs are approved, especially as BTC nears its latest ‘halving’ event due in late April. After the halving, the block reward for miners will be reduced by 50% to 3.125 BTC from 6.25. The weekly chart shows resistance at $40k and a fraction under $43k before a gap to $48.2k appears. If spot ETFs are not approved, Bitcoin could quickly fall to $32.4k before $31.8k and $31.0k come into focus. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Weekly Price Chart – November 9, 2023 Charts via TradingView What is your view on Bitcoin – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/bitcoin-btc-continues-to-rally-as-spot-etf-chatter-gets-louder-20231109.html

2023-11-09 11:37

USD/JPY News and Analysis Raised BoJ inflation forecasts and yield curve tweaks lay groundwork for policy pivot The yen heads lower, sending USD/JPY above the closely watched 150 marker The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Raised BoJ Inflation Forecasts and Yield Curve Tweaks Lay Groundwork for Policy Pivot Minutes from the BoJ’s October meeting acknowledged that current conditions are making progress towards sustainably achieving the 2% inflation target. The updated October forecast raised the level of inflation over the forecast period into the end of 2025. The bank has stated its preconditions for a monumental policy change which include: inflation meeting the 2% target stably and sustainably, as well as witnessing rising wage growth. The inflation condition comes with a caveat that the cause of the inflation cannot be ‘cost-push’ inflation like what we’ve seen in the wake of the energy crisis but rather as a result of ‘demand-pull’ inflation due to elevated local activity. While wages and inflation have been rising, the bank’s Governor Ueda has stated that there is “still some distance to cover”. The BoJ Governor had previously hinted that the bank would have enough data on hand by the end of the year to make a decision on pivoting away from negative interest rates. In the meantime, the bank is normalizing the local bond market, allowing more flexibility in yields which would see a greater tolerance around the 1% mark. Such a move attempts to reduce volatility when the bank eventually makes the call to normalize interest rates. USD/JPY Rises after BoJ Minutes The daily USD/JPY chart reveals the effect of the broader USD recovery. The 150 mark has been highlighted as a potential tripwire for FX intervention directed by Tokyo officials but warnings around undesirable FX moves show a lack of urgency and perhaps contentment given the eventual policy pivot. Thus far markets have self-corrected whenever surpassing the 150 marker, removing the need for intervention. The MACD reveals the declining momentum in the pair. It remains to be seen if a new yearly high, above the current market of 151.70 will inject a renewed sense of urgency into the conversation. Typically, laying the groundwork for policy normalization ought to see the yen trading firmer, something that has been notably absent of late. USD/JPY Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow After a period of consolidation, the yen has moved lower when measured against a basket of other major currencies. Japanese Yen Index Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/boj-just-moved-closer-to-dismantling-negative-interest-rates-20231109.html

2023-11-09 10:30

Article by IG Chief Market Analyst Chris Beauchamp Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, Nikkei 225 Analysis and Charts Dow returns to trendline resistance The index has seen its momentum fade after the huge gains of the past week, though it continues to hold above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Wednesday saw the index touch trendline resistance from the July highs, for the first time since early September. A push above this line would be a clear bullish development, and open the way towards the highs of early September towards 35,000. For the moment there is no sign of any downside momentum, but a close below the 200-day SMA might signal that some fresh short-term weakness has begun. Dow Jones Daily Chart Nasdaq 100 continues to tiptoe higher This index has been able to push above trendline resistance, moving outside the descending channel in place since the end of July.It finds itself back at the early October highs at 15,330 and now needs a close above this level to break the previous lower high. From there, the 15,600 area from early September comes into view. A reversal back below 15,000 puts the index back inside the descending channel and reinforces the bearish short-term view. Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart Nikkei 225 bounces off 100-day moving average After weakening over the past four sessions, the index has seen a revival. The price briefly moved below the 100-day SMA yesterday, but avoided a close below this indicator, with it now acting as support as opposed to resistance as it was in early October. This could now see the index push towards 33,000 and trendline resistance from the 2023 high. Above this comes the September high of around 33,450. Sellers will need a reversal back below 32,000 to suggest that a new leg lower could be underway. Nikkei 225 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/dow-stalls-at-trendline-resistance-but-nasdaq-100-edges-up-and-nikkei-225-rallies-20231109.html

2023-11-09 07:52

USD/CAD Analysis BoC minutes largely dismissed by markets due to recent dismal Canadian economic data. Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech in focus later today. USD/CAD holds around the 1.38 handle as bearish divergence threatens. USD/CAD Fundamental Backdrop Markets ‘dovishly’ repriced Fed rate hike expectations after the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) miss last week which could have been a slight overreaction in my opinion. Additional incoming data will be required to properly gauge the status of the US economy. Mr. Powell may well leave the door open for potential hikes if necessary and pushback against talk of rate cuts. From a Canadian perspective, the Bank of Canada (BoC) Summary of Deliberations were released last night and contained hawkish messaging. This report di little to negate CAD downside due to subsequent economic data that was released. Some key statements are shown below: “Council members agreed to revisit need for rate hike at future decisions with benefit of more data, agreed to state clearly they were prepared to raise the rate further if needed.” “Council members acknowledged further tightening would likely be required to restore price stability.” The December rate announcement (according to money market pricing) looks to be in favor of a rate pause at 5% with almost 100% certainty (refer to table below) with the first round of rate cuts projected around June 2024. BANK OF CANADA INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS Source: Refinitiv Crude oil prices (a key Canadian export) has been a major contributor to loonie weakness of recent but with OPEC+ likely concerned around the sharp decline, an extension of voluntary production cuts may be announced in due course – a potential silver lining for CAD bulls. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG USD/CAD price action above shows apparent bearish/negative divergence on the daily chart with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) exhibiting lower highs while USD/CAD prices print higher highs. The pair remains within the longer-term upward trending channel but could see a retest of channel support should crude oil prices push higher alongside a possible weaker US dollar. Key resistance levels: 1.3899 1.3800 Key support levels: 1.3700 1.3668/Channel support 50-day MA (yellow) IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: MIXED IGCS shows retail traders are currently prominently SHORT on USD/CAD , with 71% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-canadian-dollar-outlook-boc-minutes-unable-to-propel-cad-ahead-of-powell-wv-20231109.html

2023-11-09 00:00

AUD/USD OUTLOOK: AUD/USD extends pullback after failing to clear overhead resistance around the 100-day simple moving average The breakout that took place last week appears to have been a fakeout This article looks at AUD/USD’s key technical levels to watch in the coming trading sessions AUD/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The Aussie embarked on a brief bull run against the U.S. dollar at the outset of the month, bouncing from horizontal support around the 0.6300 handle and breaking out on the topside. The initial rally gained strength late last week as the broader U.S. dollar began to correct lower following the FOMC decision and weaker-than-expected U.S. data, but prices hit a roadblock near the 100-day simple moving average on Monday, leading to a sharp reversal in the exchange rate (breakout looks like it was a fakeout). AUD/USD’s retreat from technical resistance came in tandem with the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy announcement a couple of days ago. The central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.35%, but sounded non-committal about further tightening, signaling that the rate-hiking cycle might be drawing to a close. The RBA's cautious tone reinforced weakness in the Australian dollar, creating a more complex scenario for the Antipodean currency. If you're wondering what’s in store for the Australian dollar in the coming months, grab a free copy of the Aussie’s fundamental and technical trading guide. Looking ahead, it is important to watch how prices behave/react around the 0.6400 mark, which coincides with the 50-day simple moving average. If this support zone crumbles, selling pressure could intensify in the near term, potentially leading to a drop towards 0.6350, the next floor in play. While AUD/USD may establish a base in this area during a retracement, a breakdown could open the door for a retest of this year's lows, located around the 0.6300 level. In the event that AUD/USD stabilizes and bounces back from its current position, overhead resistance can be seen at 0.6460. Successfully piloting above this technical barrier might attract new buyers into the market, creating the right conditions for an ascent towards 0.6510. To confirm the end of the downturn and signal a sustained recovery for the Australian dollar, it is essential to take out this ceiling. If this scenario plays out, the bulls may set their sights on the 200-day simple moving average. AUD/USD TECHNICAL CHART AUD/USD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-australian-dollar-forecast-aud-usd-extends-bearish-reversal-in-fakeout-fallout-20231109.html

2023-11-08 21:43

SP 500 & NAS100 PRICE FORECAST: NAS100 and SPX Both Face a Key Resistance Test if the Rally is to Continue. A Slew of Earnings to Come After Market Close Could Push US Indices Past Key Resistance Levels. IG Client Sentiment Shows that Retail Traders are Net-Short with 59% of Traders Currently Holding Short Positions on the SPX. To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. Most Read: Gold Price Forecast: $1950 Key Support Approaches as Bears Eye Further Downside US Indices have rallied quite significantly over the past week and a half with SPX up around 7%, and the NAS100 around 9.2% before stuttering slightly today. Market participants are seeking fresh insight into the thinking of the US Federal Reserve regarding rate hikes and potential cuts in 2024. The recent rally benefitted from the assumption that the Fed are done with rate hikes but the recent hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia and hawkish comments from Fed policymakers have seen a renewal of the recent uncertain narrative. Source: TradingView Fed Chair Powell averted any comments on monetary policy today, but he is speaking tomorrow again and market participants will continue to keep an eye for any hints on Fed policy. If rates have peaked, then there is a real chance we could see further upside on the S&P 500. Looking at the individual stocks on the SPX and outside of Mega Cap tech stocks the valuations are relatively low which could lead to further upside for the rest of Q4. This would also tie in with the Q4 historical performance of US Indices. EARNINGS, FEDSPEAK AND MICHIGAN SENTIMENT DATA There remains a lot of earnings due out after market close today with the big names among them being Walt Disney (DIS), Virgin Galactic (SPCE), AMC Entertainment (AMC) and Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA). Keep an eye on any movements in after hours trade heading into the US open tomorrow. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK AND FINAL THOUGHTS NASDAQ 100 As mentioned earlier the Nasdaq has put in gains of nearly 10% from the recent lows printed last week. We have broken the channel which had been in play since the Middle of July. We have however run into a key area of resistance hence the slight indecision today. Looking ahead and if price is able to push beyond the 15300 mark then further upside could take us toward the next resistance area around the 15500 mark which was the September swing high. Alternatively, a push lower and rejection of the 15300 level could bring us back to retest the channel breakout at around the 15100 mark before a potential bullish continuation. If this level is broken support at 15000 and possibly the 20-day MA at 14800 will likely come into focus. NAS100 November 8, 2023 Source: TradingView, Chart Prepared by Zain Vawda S&P 500 The SPX has had a similar run as the NAS100, breaking above the inner trendline and now faces a resistance level as well. A break above here will lead to a retest of the outer descending trendline which rests just above the 100-day MA and the 4400 mark. A break above the outer trendline will bring resistance at 4460 into focus before the swing high at 4515 becomes an area of interest. A rejection here could lead to a retest of the inner trendline and then lead to a bullish continuation. As is usually the case a breakout is followed by a retest before continuation (atleast in a perfect world). Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Support levels: 4343 4325 4276 Resistance levels: 4404 4459 4515 S&P 500 November 8, 2023 Source: TradingView, Chart Prepared by Zain Vawda IG CLIENT SENTIMENT Taking a quick look at the IG Client Sentiment, Retail Traders are Short on SPX with 5% of retail traders holding Short positions. Given the Contrarian View to Crowd Sentiment Adopted Here at DailyFX, is this a sign that the S&P may continue to rise? https://www.dailyfx.com/news/s-p-500-nas-100-runs-into-resistance-can-the-rally-continue-20231108.html