2023-11-08 19:30

GOLD (XAU/USD) PRICE FORECAST: Gold (XAU/USD) Continues its Move Lower as the $1950 Area Comes into Focus. Dollar Index (DXY) Could Resume its Move Lower as Key Resistance Level Holds Firm. IG Client Sentiment Shows that Retail Traders are Overwhelmingly Long on Gold and Silver. To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. MOST READ: GBP Price Action Setups: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/AUD Post UK CPI Gold prices are under renewed selling pressure today as hawkish comments from Fed policymakers reigned in the recent hopes that the Fed are done. Market participants had hoped that Fed Chair Powell might strike a different tone in his speech at the US central bank statistics conference. The Fed Chair however, failed to touch on monetary policy but is back tomorrow once more and could still touch on it then. Supercharge your trading prowess with an in-depth analysis of gold's outlook, offering insights from both fundamental and technical viewpoints. Claim your free Q4 trading guide now! US DOLLAR INDEX RECOVERY FACES KEY RESISTANCE The Dollar Index is continuing its attempted recovery today but is struggling at the 105.63 area which has served as a key area of resistance in the past. The renewed optimism comes about as Fed policymaker Kashkari and Bowman both hinting at further rate hikes as the economy remains hot. Looking ahead and it will be interesting to see if Fed Chair Powell will comment on monetary policy tomorrow. Besides that the only other factor that could affect the US Dollar this week will be Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary numbers due out on Friday. US Dollar Index, Daily Chart, November 8 Source: TradingView Despite the hawkish rhetoric by policymakers' expectations for another rate hike have barely moved based the CME FedWatch tool. Markets are still pricing in a 90% probability that the Fed will leave rates at current levels at the December meeting. Given what is left on the calendar this week there is every chance that this will not change. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK GOLD Form a technical perspective, Gold continued its decline toward the psychological $1950 level. A break below the $1950 opens the door for a return to $1900 but there will be some key support tests that will need to be navigated first. The 50, 100 and 200-day MA all rest within a $12 range between with the $1930 support are being the most prominent. It did appear as though we may have a golden cross pattern and that may still occur but we it would require a recovery first. Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Resistance levels: 1968.55 1980.00 2000.00 Support levels: 1950.00 1930.00 1900.00 Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart – November 8, 2023 Source: TradingView, Chart Prepared by Zain Vawda IG CLIENT SENTIMENT Taking a quick look at the IG Client Sentiment, Retail Traders are Long on Gold with 58% of retail traders holding Long positions. Given the Contrarian View to Crowd Sentiment Adopted Here at DailyFX, is this a sign that Gold may continue to fall? https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-price-forecast-1950-key-support-approaches-as-bears-eye-further-downside-20231108.html

2023-11-08 17:35

Most Read: Gold, Silver Price Forecast - XAU/USD & XAG/USD May Get Boost from Macro Trends The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, was a tad firmer on Wednesday, extending its rebound for the third day in a row after last week’s overextended selloff in the wake of the FOMC decision and softer-than- expected data. Gains on the session were likely driven by the sour mood on Wall Street, with U.S. equity indices losing ground and ending a multi-day winning streak. In this article, we’ll focus on EUR/USD, USD/MXN and USD/CAD from a technical perspective, taking into account price action dynamics and market sentiment. EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD has retreated over the last couple of days after failing to take out Fibonacci resistance at 1.0765 earlier in the week. However, the pair has managed to establish a base around the 1.0700 handle and has started to perk up, signaling that the selling pressure is abating. If the rebound extends in the coming sessions, the initial ceiling to watch lies at 1.0765. On further strength, attention shifts to 1.0840. In the event that sellers return and trigger a bearish reversal, the first layer of defense against bearish attacks can be found within the range of 1.0695 to 1.0670. A violation of this key floor could accelerate losses for the pair, setting the stage for a retest of this year's lows at 1.0450. On continued downward pressure, focus will be locked onto 1.0355. EUR/USD TECHNICAL CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using Trading View USD/MXN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The recent manifestation of risk-on sentiment has worked to the advantage of the Mexican peso, allowing USD/MXN to retreat from its October highs, as seen in the daily chart below. If the pair continues on its bearish course, support is positioned around the 17.40 mark. Sellers may find it challenging to breach this technical floor, but in the case of a breakdown, a potential move to 17.05 is conceivable. On the contrary, if the market mood deteriorates and USD/MXN resumes its climb, overhead technical resistance stretches from 17.70 to 17.75, a key ceiling area where the 200-day simple moving average converges with several recent swing highs. On further strength, we could potentially witness a rally towards the 18.50 area. USD/MXN TECHNICAL CHART USD/MXN Chart Prepared Using TradingView USD/CAD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD has rallied in recent days after finding solid support around the 50-day simple moving average earlier in the week. The bullish move has been reinforced by the sharp drop in oil prices, which represents a key commodity for the Canadian economy, with the pair taking out resistance at 1.3785. If gains accelerate in the coming sessions, attention will be on the 1.3900 handle, followed by 1.3975. In the event that the market turns, and sentiment shifts in favor of sellers, technical support levels are identifiable at 1.3785 and 1.3700. With continued weakness, the possibility of a retest of the 50-day SMA comes into view. Should the price fall below this moving average, trendline support at 1.3575 warrants a watchful eye. USD/CAD TECHNICAL CHART USD/CAD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-setups-eur-usd-flat-usd-mxn-and-usd-cad-shine-in-risk-off-setting-20231108.html

2023-11-08 14:27

POUND STERLING ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS BoE sentiments keep downward pressure on sterling. Fed officials will be the primary focal point for today’s US trading session. GBP/USD pullback may be short-lived. GBPUSD FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP The British pound was not helped by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey today as he reiterated the sentiments stated by the BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill that inflation is expected to fall sharply – as seen with the Euro area earlier today. That being said, the Governor stuck to a ‘higher for longer’ message with forecasts of 2% inflation estimated around the two year mark. Overall, money markets have been ‘dovishly’ repriced with no further hikes and an increase in cumulative interest rate cuts to 65bps by December 2024 up from 50bps just a week ago (refer to table below). BoE Governor Bailey: “It's really too early to be talking about cutting rates.” “The basic message is that we believe policy will need to be restrictive for an extended period, though there are upside risks.” “We think policy is now restrictive, economic growth is very subdued.” BOE INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES Source: Refinitiv Weak Chinese data has supplemented a weaker pound and will be a key component to monitor moving forward. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG GBP/USD price action above shows the significance of the 200-day moving average (blue) and the long upper wick candle formation respectively. Cable has since dropped below the 50-day MA (yellow) and could head towards the 1.2200 psychological handle. The medium-term bias (based on my analysis) stays in favor of more downside to come should market conditions stay relatively consistent. Key resistance levels: 200-day MA (blue) 1.2308/50-day MA (yellow) Key support levels: 1.2200 1.2100 1.2000 1.1804 MIXED IG CLIENT SENTIMENT (GBP/USD) IG Client Sentiment Data (IGCS) shows retail traders are currently net LONG on GBP/USD with 65% of traders holding long positions (as of this writing). https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-gbp-price-forecast-pound-slips-as-boe-s-bailey-hints-at-peak-rates-wv-20231108.html

2023-11-08 13:01

Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) and (EUR/JPY) Prices, Charts, and Analysis USD/JPY continues to press against a multi-decade high. EUR/JPY prints a fresh 15-year high. Fed Chair Powell speaks later in the session. The current risk-on sentiment dominating a range of financial markets is adding to structural Yen weakness, leaving JPY at risk against a range of other currencies. The Japanese Yen is seen as a safe haven currency in times of risk. The recent risk-on move, bolstered by growing market acceptance that the US is highly unlikely to raise interest rates further, has seen the VIX – a volatility index – tumbling to a fresh two-month low. VIX Volatility S&P 500 Index Daily Chart US interest rates are likely to be discussed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and a group of other Fed members who are all scheduled to speak over the course of today. The latest market pricing suggests that Fed Funds will remain at 525-550 for the next few months before the US central bank begins trimming rates by 25bps at the end of H1 2024. In total, the Fed is seen cutting interest rates by 100 basis points next year. CME FedWatch Tool The daily USD/JPY chart shows the pair within touching distance of last year’s peak at 151.96. A break above here would see USD/JPY at levels last seen 33 years ago. All three simple moving averages remain supportive and may help the pair test the upper limit. The Bank of Japan will be watching closely, and will likely send out a muted warning about the Yen’s weakness, but unless the Japanese central bank acts, it is possible that the pair will move further higher in the weeks ahead. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart – November 8, 2023 EUR/JPY has broken above a prior level of horizontal resistance and continues to print fresh 15-year highs. All three moving averages are supportive of the move higher and while the CCI indicator suggests that EUR/JPY is overbought, it is not an extreme signal yet. Prior resistance at 159.70 should now act as first-line support before a cluster of prior highs above 158 come into focus. EUR/JPY Daily Price Chart – November 8, 2023 What is your view on the Japanese Yen – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/japanese-yen-latest-usd-jpy-and-eur-jpy-probe-fresh-multi-year-highs-20231108.html

2023-11-08 11:12

Oil (Brent Crude, WTI) Analysis US API crude inventory data posts sizeable rise, EIA data delayed to next week Oil sell-off sees the commodity (Brent) trading below the key 200 SMA WTI trading in a similar fashion with the 200 SMA holding as resistance The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library US Crude Inventory Data Posts Sizeable Rise The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a sizable rise in US crude stocks for the week ending 3 November. The inventory build has weighed on oil prices which have already suffered amid the prospect of a continued growth slowdown in the world's major economies. The data comes in a week where the Energy Information Agency (EIA) we'll delay the release of its storage data as it undergoes systems maintenance. rising inventory levels combined with weaker anticipated oil demand weighs on oil. Oil Sell-off Sees the Commodity Trading Below the Key 200 SMA Brent crude oil plunged 4.4% yesterday taking out the prior swing low at 83.50, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the $82 mark. Yesterday's strong move serves to reinforce the existing bearish trend that has ensued after the market topped on the 19th of September this year. Oil markets have opened slightly lower in the European session somewhat confirming the recent bearish sentiment. The RSI indicator approaches over sold territory suggesting there is still further room to the downside before a potential pullback becomes more likely. It would appear that the war premium and concerns over oil supply in the broader region have dissipated while global growth concerns amid elevated interest rates, continue to be the domineering factor in the price discovery process. Additionally, positive import data for the month of October in China highlighted an uptick in Chinese oil imports compared to October of 2022 but when one considers the world's second largest economy was enduring continued lockdowns at the time, the 13.5% rise (year on year) looks a lot less impressive. The next level of support appears at $77 which is the 50% retracement of the broader 2020 to 2022 move. Immediate resistance appears at the $82 mark which coincides roughly with the 200 SMA. a successful test of this level with prices subsequently moving lower would not bode well for oil bulls. Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow The Brent crude weekly chart shows the massive decline and turn around in oil prices, revealing 3 relatively large red candles one after the other with oil prices dropping more than $11 in the space of under three weeks. Brent Crude Oil (CL1! Continuous futures) Weekly Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow US WTI oil sinks lower, trading beneath the 200 SMA Similarly to Brent crude oil, WTI has broken beneath the 200 SMA and the rather important long term level of $77.40 during the latest decline. The next level of support appears at $72.50 with resistance close by at $77.40 and the 200 SMA slightly above that level. US Crude (WTI) Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/oil-sell-off-intensifies-seeing-the-commodity-trade-below-a-key-level-20231108.html

2023-11-08 10:00

Article by IG Senior Market Analyst Axel Rudolph FTSE 100, DAX 40, S&P 500 Analysis and Charts FTSE 100 weighs on minor support The FTSE 100 continues to slide on some disappointing earnings. The index is in the process of testing the early September and early October lows at 7,384 to 7,369 and may drop towards the October low at 7,258 if these levels were to give way. The 7,258 low was made close to the 7,228 to 7,204 March-to-August lows which represents significant support. Above Wednesday’s intraday high at 7,408 lies minor resistance at Tuesday’s 7,432 high and the 25 October high at 7,430. Further up sits last week’s high at 7,484 which, together with the 55-day simple moving average at 7,501, would need to be overcome for the early September high at 7,524 to be back in the frame. FTSE 100 Daily Chart DAX 40 consolidation is ongoing The DAX 40’s rally from its 14,589 October low took it to Friday’s 15,268 high before consolidating this week. In case of a fall through Tuesday’s low at 15,067, the minor psychological 15,000 mark and the early October low at 14,944 may be revisited. For the bull run to continue, Tuesday’s high at 15,194 would need to be exceeded in which case last week’s high at 15,268 would be back in focus. Further up beckon the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and the July-to-November downtrend line at 15,363 to 15,390. Slightly above this area sits major resistance between the 15,455 to 15,575 July-to-mid-September lows and the mid-October high. DAX 40 Daily Chart S&P 500 nears mid-October high at 4,398 The sharp rally in the S&P 500 is losing upside momentum amid high US treasury yields and hawkish comments by US Federal Reserve (Fed) members and as it approaches its mid-October high at 4,398 around which it may short-term consolidate. If not, the early September low at 4,430 would be eyed next. Minor support can be seen along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 4,352 and at Monday’s 4,348 low. Further minor support sits at the 4,337 August trough. S&P 500 Daily Chart See our Q4 Equities Forecast https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ftse-100-dax-40-and-s-p-500-consolidate-as-they-await-further-news-20231108.html