2023-11-08 07:50

EUR/USD ANALYSIS ]Softer German inflation maintains downward pressure on EUR upside. Euro area retail sales and ECB/Fed speak to come. EUR/USD bear flag still under consideration. EURO FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP The euro has paired back its recent gains post-NFP with certain US central bank speakers ‘out-hawking’ their European Central Bank (ECB) counterparts. The Fed’s Logan and Bowman in particular highlighted the resilience of the US economy and the possible need for additional interest rate hikes. In summary, Fed officials will likely adopt a ‘wait and see’ approach as more data is needed after the recent NFP miss. Later today, the focus will shift to the Federal Reserve once more with Fed Chair Jerome Powell under the spotlight. The speech will be dissected for any clues or potential changes to the prior narrative. Other Fed speakers will follow Mr. Powell but markets will likely keep their reactions aimed at the Fed Chair. Implied Fed funds futures have been ‘dovishly’ re-priced to levels pre-NFP showing the fickle nature of financial market expectations. With the ECB expected to cut by +/-30bps more by year end 2024, the US dollar could remain supported ceteris paribus. The ongoing war in the Middle East may supplement the safe haven attribute of the USD against the EUR. Source: Refinitiv TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG The daily EUR/USD daily chart above now trades below the 1.0700 psychological handle. The pullback higher within the larger and longer-term downtrend remains within a bear flag formation (black) that could still unfold in its traditional sense. Resistance levels: 1.0800/200-day MA Flag resistance 1.0700 Support levels: 1.0635 50-day MA 1.0600 Flag support 1.0500 IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: MIXED IGCS shows retail traders are currently neither NET LONG on EUR/USD, with 56% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-eur-usd-price-forecast-german-inflation-aggravates-euro-drawback-wv-20231108.html

2023-11-07 23:15

SILVER, GOLD OUTLOOK: Gold and silver prices have retreated in recent weeks, but their outlook remains constructive If bond yields continue to push lower, precious metals could shine heading into 2024 This article explores XAU/USD and XAG/USD’s key levels to watch this week Most Read: US Dollar Setups - EUR/USD Defies Support After Pullback, USD/JPY Stands Tall Gold and silver have declined over the past couple of weeks as the geopolitical premium built up in both metals after the Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel early last month have started to unwind. This is because the situation in the Middle East, while still tragic, has not degenerated into a wider conflict involving other countries, such as Iran or Lebanon. Another factor that has contributed to the weakness in XAU/USD and XAG/USD is reduced demand for safe-haven positions. Recently, U.S. stocks have gone on a bullish tear, with the Nasdaq 100 rising for eight consecutive sessions and on the verge of reclaiming its October high. Fear of missing out has, therefore, pushed traders to redirect their attention on the equity market rather than on non-yielding assets. Despite recent market dynamics, there are reasons to be optimistic about precious metals. That said, one catalyst that could put upward pressure on their prices is the pullback in rates. Last month, the US 10-year yield topped 5.0%, but has since corrected sharply lower, falling below 4.6% today. If this correction accelerates in the near term, the backdrop for both gold and silver would become more constructive. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has seen a modest retreat in recent days after failing to take out resistance in the $2,010/$2,015 range late last month. If losses deepen in the coming trading sessions, support appears at $1,960, followed by $1,945, near the 200-day simple moving average. While there's potential for the metal to find stability in this area before making a comeback, a breakdown could open the door for a move toward $1,920. On the other hand, if the bulls engineer a resurgence and propel prices upward, overhead resistance is located at $2,010/$2,015 as mentioned earlier. Upside clearance of this technical barrier would reignite bullish sentiment, setting the stage for a rally towards $2,060. On further strength and sustained momentum, buyers may gain the confidence to challenge this year's high at $2,085. GOLD PRICE CHART (FRONT-MONTH FUTURES) Source: TradingView SILVER PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver sold off on Tuesday, sinking towards confluence support around $22.55, where a medium-term ascending trendline converges with several recent swing lows. Buyers must firmly protect this area to counteract the current selling pressure. Failing to maintain this floor could potentially push prices down to $22.20. In case of continued weakness, the focus shifts to October lows near the $21.00 mark. Conversely, if buyers return and trigger an upside reversal, we could see a move toward trendline resistance at $23.40. This pivotal level, which coincides with the 200-day simple moving average may establish a robust barrier against bullish advances, but in the event of a breakout, XAG/USD may progress towards the $24.00 threshold. SILVER PRICE CHART (FRONT-MONTH FUTURES) Source: TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-silver-price-forecast-xau-usd-xag-usd-may-get-boost-from-macro-trends-20231107.html

2023-11-07 20:30

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR PRICE, CHARTS AND ANALYSIS: AUD/USD Pullback Setting Up a Potential Long Setup. GBP/AUD Faces a Barrage of Resistance Ahead Which Could Halt Further Upside. To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. Most Read: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Forecast: Open Interest Surge to Ignite a Fresh Bout of Volatility? Supercharge your trading prowess with an in-depth analysis of the Australian Dollar outlook, offering insights from both fundamental and technical viewpoints. Claim your free Q4 trading guide now! AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and its new Governor Michele Bullock did not disappoint this morning following repeated comments regarding another rate hike. The Governor issued a warning in her statement that the RBA is prepared to hike rates again if needed as inflationary pressures remain persistent. Bullock commented on the fresh batch of data received since its August meeting “the weight of this information suggests that the risk of inflation remaining higher for longer has increased”. This rate hike is not one that will be welcomed by consumers as according to estimates it will add another $100AUD to the average $600kAUD mortgage loan. The RBA however, said that inflation while on the way down is taking longer than expected to reach the Central Banks target range of 2-3%. Australian Inflation Source: TradingEconomics The Australian Dollar however, weakened following the announcement. This may in part be down to the recent rally or down to the change in language from the RBA who in October stated “some further tightening of monetary policy may be required”. Today the rhetoric was that the Central Bank remains ready to act if the need arises which was interpreted as slightly dovish in nature. PRICE ACTION AND POTENTIAL SETUPS AUDUSD AUDUSD had been on an impressive 3-day rally at the back end of last week before running into resistance at 0.6500 handle where the 100-day MA rests as well. The rally which began following a triple bottom pattern and a descending trendline break gathered pace quickly and could continue from a technical standpoint. AUDUSD is beginning to look like a textbook long setup with a period of consolidation followed by a trendline break and now it appears we are about to retest the trendline. The ideal scenario here would be a bounce of the trendline and support at either the 0.64098 or the 20-day MA and support area slightly lower at 0.63660 before continuing its move higher. AUDUSD bulls will be watching the US Dollar index which is attempting a rebound here at the start of the week. In order for Bulls to seize control I think we may need to see a renewed leg to the downside for the DXY which in turn could help AUDUSD cross above the 0.6500 hurdle and beyond. Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Support levels: 0.64098 0.63660 0.62836 Resistance levels: 0.65000 0.66152 0.66911 AUD/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Zain Vawda GBPAUD GBPAUD has been ranging now for the better part of 6 weeks. It does appear as if we have printed a double bottom pattern but the upside remains capped by a key area of resistance and the 20,50 and 100-day MA all resting around the 1.92100 area. Looking at the mixed nature of price action though there is a chance that we could get one more push lower toward support resting at the 200-day MA around 1.8806. This would obviously provide a better risk to reward opportunity for would be bulls looking to get involved. GBP/AUD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Zain Vawda https://www.dailyfx.com/news/australian-dollar-price-action-setups-aud-usd-gbp-aud-post-rba-hike-20231107.html

2023-11-07 19:05

EUR/USD AND USD/JPY FORECAST EUR/USD slides and tests an important technical support in the 1.0695/1.0670 area USD/JPY extends its recovery for the second straight day, coming within striking distance from overtaking overhead resistance This article analyzes key price levels to watch in the coming trading sessions Most Read: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD Muted as Bullish Momentum Wanes The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, was slightly firmer on Tuesday, extending gains for a second straight day after last week's excessive pullback, despite the retrenchment in U.S. yields. The move in the broader U.S. dollar weighed on EUR/USD, driving the pair toward an important support region near 1.0670. Meanwhile, USD/JPY managed to trek upwards, consolidating above the 150.00 mark and approaching technical resistance at 150.90. This article focuses on the EUR/USD and USD/JPY from a technical standpoint, examining critical price levels that traders need to keep an eye on and, perhaps, incorporate into their trading strategies in the coming sessions. EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD soared to its best level in nearly two months last week following soft U.S. labor market data and cautious commentary from the Federal Reserve chief. Bullish impetus, however, has started to wane over the past couple of days, with the pair retracing recent gains and now challenging support in the 1.0695/1.0670 area. With volatility poised to increase due to the numerous risk events on the calendar later this week, including speeches by Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde, we could see more pronounced swings in the exchange rate. That said, there are two potential scenarios that could unfold that are worth highlighting. Scenario one: EUR/USD breaks below 1.0695/1.0670 on daily closing prices. If this scenario materializes, selling pressure could gather pace, laying the groundwork for a potential challenge of trendline support at 1.0555. A violation of this technical floor could embolden the bears to initiate an assault on this year’s lows near 1.0450. Scenario two: Prices rebound from current levels. If the bullish camp mounts a resurgence from horizontal support at 1.0695/1.0670, we could see a move towards 1.0765, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July/October selloff. Upside clearance of this barrier could open the door for a climb towards 1.0840. Keen to understand the role of retail positioning in EUR/USD's price action dynamics? Our sentiment guide delivers all the essential insights. Get your free copy now! EUR/USD TECHNICAL CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY extended its recovery on Tuesday, rising for a second consecutive day and decisively consolidating above the psychological 150.00 level after weak Japanese wage growth data reduced the likelihood of near-term monetary policy normalization by the Bank of Japan. If USD/JPY’s gains accelerate in the coming trading sessions, technical resistance is positioned at 150.90, followed by the 2023 swing high near the 151.00 mark. On further strength, the focus transitions to 153.00, which corresponds to the upper boundary of a rising channel in play since March. Conversely, if market sentiment shifts in favor of sellers and weakness ensures, initial support is located around the 149.00 handle, just around the 50-day simple moving average. Prices may establish a foothold in this region on a pullback, but in case of a breakdown, we could observe a descent towards 147.25 and 146.00 thereafter. Further beneath these levels, attention turns to the area around 144.50. USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-setups-eur-usd-defies-support-after-pullback-usd-jpy-stands-tall-20231107.html

2023-11-07 16:27

BITCOIN, CRYPTO KEY POINTS: Bitcoin Remains Rangebound as Open Interest Suggests Volatility May be on its Way. Whales Continue to Accumulate Bitcoin at an Impressive Rate as the $30k Mark is Seen as Key. Technicals are Starting to Point Toward a Retracement but a Weaker US Dollar Could Help Underpin the World's Largest Cryptocurrency. To Learn More AboutPrice Action,Chart Patterns and Moving Averages,Check out the DailyFX Education Series. READ MORE: Oil Price Forecast: WTI Remains Vulnerable Below the 100-Day MA Bitcoin prices continue to range in and around the $35k mark as market participants await a fresh jolt of volatility. There has been a sharp increase in open interest (OI) on derivatives markets which many crypto enthusiasts believe hints at a renewed round of volatility for the world’s largest crypto. Supercharge your trading prowess with an in-depth analysis of Bitcoins outlook, offering insights from both fundamental and technical viewpoints. Claim your free Q4 trading guide now! OPEN INTEREST SURGE TO REIGNITE VOLATILITY? According to reports and having a look at the data itself there does appear to be a correlation between increases in (OI) and spikes in volatility. In recent months when Open Interest has reached elevated levels, we have had increased levels of volatility, with the current level close to $15.5 billion. The CME exchange has also achieved a new record in Open Interest, valued around 3.68 billion which is interesting given that the CME exchange is preferred by institutional investors. This might further strengthen the conviction of crypto enthusiasts that a spot ETF approval may be around the corner as institutional investors prepare. Bitcoin miners are smiling however, as Bitcoin transaction fees hit 5- month peak. According to data from statistics resource BitinfoCharts, the average BTC transaction fee is approaching $6 as of November 7. The increased has been laid at the feet of Bitcoin Ordinals which is making its presence felt in what is somewhat reminiscent of the second quarter of 2023. Ordinals are nonfungible tokens (NFTs) that store data directly on the blockchain and add a significant number of transactions for miners to process. The effect usually results in an increase in fees with approximately 1 million ordinal “mints” having taken place in the last 7 days. This is also creating a backlog in transactions with the current number of 120k in stark contrast to the beginning of October when the number was around 30k. Bitcoin supply meanwhile remains tight with long-term holders continuing to accumulate bitcoin at an impressive rate. According to Glassnode, spending behavior of short-term holders suggest a shift in market character has taken place now that prices are above the $30k mark. Not surprising really as this was earmarked as a key level in my quarterly outlook as well. The chart below measures the amount of supply held in wallets with minimal history of spending is also at an ATH of 15.4M BTC. Source: Glassnode LOOKING AHEAD We do have some US data ahead this week as the US Dollar has faced a bit of selling pressure on hopes the Fed rate hike cycle is done. The DXY has not had a material impact on Bitcoin prices of late, but will that change? If Dollar weakness does continue Bitcoin bulls will hope for a better reaction and potentially further upside. As time goes by it is important to pay attention to any new announcements around the Spot Bitcoin ETF by the SEC as this could be the much-needed push to break Bitcoin out of this recent lull. READ MORE: HOW TO USE TWITTER FOR TRADERS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK AND FINAL THOUGHTS From a technical standpoint BTCUSD is currently stuck in a period of consolidation which is understandable given the recent rally. The longer we do consolidate the more likely we are to see a volatile breakout as this is how it historically unfolds. At present the $35k is proving particularly stubborn with immediate support provided at the $34k handle. If we are to see a retracement here the most intriguing level for me in terms of bullish continuation would be the swing high in the middle of July around the $31.5k mark. A pullback toward this area may provide would be bulls with an appealing risk to reward opportunity. BTCUSD Daily Chart, November 7, 2023. Source: TradingView, chart prepared by Zain Vawda Looking at the H4 timeframe and there are some signs that bears may be gathering. We have printed a lower high and lower low since the November 5 high. A daily candle close below the $34.1K mark may be needed to convince bears that a deeper retracement is on the table. Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Resistance levels: 35000 36000 37500 Support levels: 34170 32528 31500 BTCUSD Four-Hour Chart, November 7, 2023. Source: TradingView, chart prepared by Zain Vawda https://www.dailyfx.com/news/bitcoin-btc-usd-forecast-open-interest-surge-to-ignite-a-fresh-bout-of-volatility-20231107.html

2023-11-07 15:17

S&P 500 Analysis Is bad news good news again? Sentiment appears to have shifted A dovish perception of the recent FOMC meeting buoyed risk assets as rate cuts shift closer Longer-term trend may be at risk but a number of key technical levels appear in the interim The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Is Good News Bad News Again? Sentiment Has Shifted U.S. equity markets have surged in the last week on the back of market expectations which suggests the Fed has reached a peak in US interest rates. While the Fed did not explicitly state as much, this was the perception after last week’s FOMC meeting where the committee acknowledged strong economic performance in the U.S. and at the same time highlighted elevated US yields for its role in further tightening the already restrictive financial conditions. Markets selectively looked past recent hot economic data and how that may impact inflation and chose to focus on the role played by elevated U.S. yields. This was largely seen as a sign from the Fed that additional interest rate hikes appear highly unlikely, resulting in the bond market reducing the chances of another hike and bringing forward the date of the potential first rate cut in 2024. This brings about an interesting dynamic as far as market sentiment is concerned as the Fed has been calling for a period of below trend growth and softer jobs data for some time now. The recent softening of U.S. data has propelled risk assets higher, advancing the logic that if the US is to experience further data deterioration, we could see further equity gains. Enter the ‘bad news is good news’ scenario. Looking at market sentiment via the CNN fear and greed index there has been a move towards neutral but as it stands the indicator still holds on to the ‘fear’ tag. CNN Fear and Greed Index Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow The daily chart reveals a doji candle yesterday which itself followed on from a daily candle exhibiting a longer upper wick - suggesting a cooling of bullish momentum. in the absence of a concerted pushback from Fed officials, the index could very well continue to rise and test the recent swing high around 4387, with the next level of interest that 4450. There is also a notable drop off regarding high importance economic data this week, meaning there could be little resistance to the recent upward momentum. Typically such a bullish move would be viewed as a pullback within the longer term downward trend, however, a potential shift in market sentiment could invalidate the current downward trend particularly if we start to see higher highs and higher lows from here on out. The red rectangles symbolize a decline of roughly 6% where we had previously witnessed a tendency for the S&P 500 to produce a counter trend move. Support resides at 4325. S&P 500 Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow The weekly chart puts the move into perspective as this is the largest move to the upside since November 2022. In addition, a key level of resistance at 4325 has been breached - the level has previously acted as a level of support, now resistance. S&P 500 Weekly Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/s-p-500-price-outlook-bullish-fatigue-allows-moment-of-reflection-20231107.html