2023-11-06 18:23

XAU/USD, XAG/USD PRICE FORECAST: Gold (XAU/USD) Consolidates Above Key Support as Rising Yields and Improving Sentiment Cap Gains. Dollar Index (DXY) Is Attempting a Recovery Following Friday's selloff. IG Client Sentiment Shows that Retail Traders are Overwhelmingly Long on Gold and Silver. To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. MOST READ: Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast: BoJ Tweak Fails to Inspire but Dollar Weakness Looks Promising for USD/JPY Gold prices are consolidating today following another attempt at the $2000/oz handle on Friday. Despite the weaker US Dollar we are seeing a slight recovery in US Yields and improving risk appetite which is sure capping gains for the precious commodity. Supercharge your trading prowess with an in-depth analysis of gold's outlook, offering insights from both fundamental and technical viewpoints. Claim your free Q4 trading guide now! US DATA WEAKENING? The $2000/oz level has proved a real stumbling block for Gold and continues to be stubborn. As the Dollar weakens, we are yet to see this translate into gains for Gold and this could be down to the safe haven appeal waning as well. Although the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is yet to be resolved, there does seem to be growing optimism that a wider regional conflict may be averted. We can see the significant uptick from the start of last week when the Fear and Greed index hovered at the 30 mark in comparison with the 42, we are seeing today. Source: FinancialJuice Gold is likely to remain supported as there is still some appeal to holding the precious metal with a weaker US Dollar also helping to underpin Gold prices. At this stage however, if we are to see a sustained break above the $2000 handle, I believe we need to see continued weakness in US data to really drive home the idea that the Fed are done. Although this may benefit risk assets the most, I think USD weakness and weaker US fundamentals may be the push required for Gold to move sustainably higher. The immediate downside risk for Gold prices lie in the improving sentiment and risk appetite which should it continue could push Gold toward a deeper retracement, possibly down to $1950. Given the extended rally to the upside this is a real possibility. There is also the case of the Gap in price to the downside which rests far away from current prices down at $1843/oz which still needs to be closed. This however, is more of a long-term prospect and is something which if we go by history could take a long a long time to close. US 2Y and 10Y Yields, Daily Chart Source: TradingView, Created by Zain Vawda RISK EVENTS AHEAD The next 48 hours brings a host of speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers with Fed Chair Powel rounding things off with comments on both Wednesday and Thursday. There shouldn’t be any surprises, but it will be intriguing to see whether there will be any attempts to quell market optimism that the Fed is done with rate hikes. It is important to note the comments of Fed policymaker Thomas Barkin who stated that it remains premature to make assumptions on the Fed outlook at the December meeting with two more inflation reports due before the Fed meeting likely to hold the key. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK GOLD Form a technical perspective, Gold needs to hold above the $1977-1980 support area on the daily timeframe if the bullish momentum is to continue. There does however appear to be significant selling pressure around the $2000/oz mark evidenced by the various attempts to push higher failing. The Friday daily candle close as well left a significant upside wick in another nod to the selling pressure that remains prevalent around and above the $2000/oz mark. The overall bullish structure remains intact without daily candle close below the $1968 support area. Taking this into account there is a real chance we could venture slightly lower below support at $1980 before bouncing from the $1968 area and attempting a renewed push toward the $2000/oz psychological area. The MAs meanwhile appear to be setting up for a golden cross pattern as the 50-day MA eyes a cross above the 100 and 200-day MAs, which is a sign of bullish momentum as well. A lot of mixed signals here and a lot of that has been down to the uncertain macro and geopolitical situations affecting volatility and aiding the uncertainty which has by and large plagued 2023. Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Resistance levels: 1992.89 2000.00 2008.00 Support levels: 1977.00 1968.00 1953.00 Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart – November 6, 2023 Source: TradingView, Chart Prepared by Zain Vawda XAG/USD Silver on the other hand is actually pretty similar to Gold from a price action perspective. It appears we have printed a double top pattern and were poised for a move lower ahead of an explosive mov higher on Friday which has failed to find any momentum. We are hovering at a key resistance area around the 23.18 mark with the MAs also eyeing a golden cross here as well. The 20-day MA looks poised to break above the 50-day MA which would hint that the upside rally may not be done just yet. Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Resistance levels: 23..18 23.55 24.00 Support levels: 22.84 22.50 22.13 Silver (XAGUSD) Daily Chart – November 6, 2023 Source: TradingView, Chart Prepared by Zain Vawda IG CLIENT SENTIMENT Taking a quick look at the IG Client Sentiment, retail traders are overwhelmingly Long on Silver with 87% of retail traders holding Long positions. Given the Contrarian View to Crowd Sentiment Adopted Here at DailyFX, is this a sign that Silver may continue to fall in the days ahead? https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-price-forecast-1980-support-break-eyed-do-bears-have-the-momentum-20231106.html

2023-11-06 17:30

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD blasted higher last week following weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data, taking out a clear barrier in 1.0670/1.0695 area. Bullish momentum, however, faded on Monday, with the pair stalling after failing to clear technical resistance at 1.0765, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July/October pullback. For guidance on the near-term outlook, it is important to watch closely how prices behave around the 1.0765 mark. If the bulls manage to breach this ceiling, along with the 200-day simple moving average, we could see a move towards 1.0840. On further strength, the focus shifts to 1.0961, the 61.8% Fib retracement. Conversely, if sellers stage a comeback and spark a bearish rejection from current levels, the first floor to monitor lies at 1.0695/1.0670. Below this threshold, market attention turns to trendline support at 1.0555. A violation of this technical zone could give the bears momentum to initiate a descent toward this year's lows around 1.0450. EUR/USD TECHNICAL CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView Looking to explore how retail positioning influences GBP/USD's price dynamics? Our sentiment guide offers invaluable insights. Secure your free copy now! GBP/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD also lost upward momentum on Monday, unable to follow through to the upside after last week's bullish breakout. This may just be a temporary pause rather than a 180-degree turn, as the outlook for the U.S. dollar is starting to turn more negative on bets that the Fed is slowly abandoning its hawkish stance in light of economic developments in the U.S. In terms of possible scenarios, if cable resumes its advance decisively and pierces overhead resistance stretching from 1.2450 to 1.2460, buying interest could accelerate, creating the right conditions for a rally towards 1.2591, a key ceiling forged by the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July/October correction, as shown in the daily chart below. On the flip side, if sellers mount a resurgence and recapture market control, initial support is positioned at 1.2320/1.2310. It is imperative for the bulls to staunchly defend this floor – any failure to do so may rekindle robust downside pressure, setting the stage for a pullback toward 1.2185. With ongoing weakness, a retest of October lows becomes a tangible possibility. GBP/USD TECHNICAL CHART GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView If you're wondering what’s in store for the Australian dollar in the coming months, grab a free copy of the Aussie’s fundamental and technical trading guide. AUD/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD has embarked on a bullish run since late October after bouncing from horizontal support in the 0.6300 area. The upward momentum has accelerated in recent days after the broader U.S. dollar began to correct lower following the November FOMC decision and softer-than-expected U.S. economic data. All this has created a more constructive backdrop for the Aussie. After recent gains, the pair has successfully surmounted significant technical thresholds and made its way toward the 100-day simple moving average near 0.6510, which represents the next resistance in play. Price action on Monday suggests sellers may be attempting to regain control of the market in this region. If their efforts pay off, we could witness a retrenchment towards 0.6460, followed by 0.6395. In contrast, if resistance around the 0.6500 handle is breached decisively on daily closing prices, the bears could capitulate and throw in the towel, paving the way for further market strength and a possible rally toward the 0.6600 region near the 200-day simple moving average. Above this ceiling, the focus transitions to long-term trendline resistance at 0.6700. AUD/USD TECHNICAL CHART AUD/USD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-setups-eur-usd-gbp-usd-and-aud-usd-muted-as-bullish-momentum-wanes-20231106.html

2023-11-06 15:04

GBP/USD News and Analysis Markets turn dovish on rates after Powell’s dot plot comments Bank of England maintains hawkish posture but worrying growth, employment data could test its resolve sooner than expected GBP/USD buoyed by dollar decline – meets immediate resistance via 200 SMA The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Markets Turn Dovish on Rates after Powell’s Dot Plot Comments Despite the Fed attempting to maintain its hawkish posture, markets ultimately gravitated towards the more dovish elements of Jerome Powell’s comments in the aftermath of last week’s FOMC meeting. The Fed acknowledged the strong performance of recent US fundamental data by upgrading the word used in the statement to describe the uptick in growth from ‘solid’ to ‘strong’. However, markets chose to prioritise the mention of ever tightening financial conditions - via elevated bond yields - and Powell’s general dismissal of the Fed dot plot efficacy. The Fed’s dot plot had previously kept hopes alive of another rate hike as it reads 6.6%, implying one more rate hike which would move the Fed funds rate to 5.5% - 5.75%. The broader market perceived this as a sign the Fed’s pause is more like a hold, suggesting US interest rates have peaked. Bond yields dropped sharply but remain elevated. As one would expect, the US dollar also witnessed a sizeable decline into the end of the week, buoyed by softer jobs data. The Bank of England, on the other hand issues a rather straightforward meeting and presser although, three of the nine monetary policy committee members voted for another 25 basis point hike. The UK has already been witnessing unemployment rising steadily and the prospect of zero growth in 2024 sets UK citizens up for a challenging year ahead. GBP/USD buoyed by dollar decline – meets immediate resistance via 200 SMA GBP/USD rose through prior support/resistance of 1.2200 and 1.2345 as the dollar and US yields turned sharply lower. Sterling has few bullish drivers apart from rate cut expectations where markets estimate the BoE will only consider rate cuts in Q3 of next year – outlasting estimates for the Fed which have recently crept into Q2 2024. Therefore, the start of this week may pose a challenge to GBP/USD if the dollar selloff stalls. Something else to note will be Fed officials and whether they issue a response to the apparent risk off sentiment. Jerome Powell makes two appearances this week, the most notable on Thursday where he will take part in a panel discussion. GBP/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow GBP/USD:Retail trader data shows 52.13% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.09 to 1. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Find out how to read and incorporate IG client sentiment into your own trading process. Claim this guide below: Major Risk Events for the Week Ahead As mentioned, Fed representatives will have their say with most appearances scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. Then on Friday, UK GDP is due. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gbp-usd-update-cable-encounters-resistance-ahead-of-q3-gdp-print-20231106.html

2023-11-06 13:30

RAND TALKING POINTS & ANALYSIS US specific factors drive ZAR strength but may be short-lived as markets may over overreacted to Friday’s NFP data. Fed speak in focus later today. USD/ZAR bulls keenly await possible short-term reversal. USD/ZAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP Macro-economic fundamentals underpin almost all markets in the global economy via growth, inflation and employment – Get you FREE guide now! The South African rand has managed to capitalize alongside its Emerging Market (EM) counterparts post-Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) last week Friday. Many market experts are more inclined into thinking that the Federal Reserve has now reached its peak. The weaker US dollar has given rise to many dollar-based commodities including major South African exports, thus providing sustenance for the local ZAR. Optimism in China after recent growth statistics could be suggestive that stimulus measures by the government may be penetrating the market and strengthening the overall economy – net positive for the rand. From a South African perspective, enhanced production capacity from Eskom has allowed for easing loadshedding conditions and could stoke investor optimism should this trend continue. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/ZAR DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, TradingView The daily USD/ZAR chart above shows price action testing the key long-term trendline support (black) beginning in March 2022. This zone has held after multiple tests by bears and with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in and around oversold territory, history may repeat itself. The long lower wick currently forming could supplement this view short-term. Resistance levels: 19.0000 50-day MA 18.7759 200-day MA 18.5000 Support levels: Trendline support 18.0000 https://www.dailyfx.com/news/usd-zar-price-forecast-is-the-rand-rally-over-20231106.html

2023-11-06 11:30

US Dollar Forecast - Prices, Charts, and Analysis Market traders now see 100bps of US rate cuts next year. Greenback trying to stem further losses. The US dollar is back at lows last seen six weeks ago after last week’s heavy sell-off. US Treasury yields collapsed late last week after the latest FOMC decision and a weak US Jobs Report fueled expectations that US rates have peaked. US Breaking News: NFP Disappointment Sinks USD, Gold Bid The latest CME FedWatch Tool suggests that US interest rates will be left unchanged at the next three meetings and now assign a 40% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the May FOMC meeting, followed by another three similar rate cuts during the year. CME FedWatch Tool This shift in expectations can be clearly seen in the US Treasury market over the last four sessions with both short- and long-dated yields falling sharply. The rate-sensitive US 2-year hit a multi-year high of 5.26% on October 19th – it now trades with a yield of 4.87%. Further along the curve the 10-year trades at 4.59%, compared to a recent high of 5.02%, while the 30-year is offered at 4.77% against a peak rate of 5.18%. US 2-Year Yield Daily Chart US 10-Year Yield Daily Chart The recent sell-off in the US dollar has turned the technical outlook negative. The dollar is now trading below both the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages and has opened below an old level of support on either side of 105.40. The area now turns into resistance. Horizontal support at 104.66 may not hold a concerted sell-off, leaving the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 104.34 vulnerable. US Dollar Index Daily Price Chart – November 6, 2023 All Charts via TradingView What is your view on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-dollar-dxy-sell-off-continues-after-us-treasury-yields-collapse-20231106.html

2023-11-06 10:00

Article by IG Senior Market Analyst Axel Rudolph FTSE 100, DAX 40, S&P 500 Analysis and Charts FTSE 100 hovers above support The FTSE 100 ended last week on a high and managed to rally to 7,484, close to the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,497, following softer US employment data, rapidly falling yields and rising US indices. The index begins this week around the 7,401 June low and the early September and early October lows at 7,384 to 7,369 which offer minor support. While it holds, last week’s high at 7,484 may be revisited, together with the 55-day simple moving average at 7,497 and the early September high at 7,524. If overcome in the course of this week, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,621 would be next in line. Below 7,384 lies the October low at 7,258 which was made close to the 7,228 to 7,204 March-to-August lows and as such major support zone. FTSE 100 Daily Chart DAX 40 loses upside momentum ahead of resistance The DAX 40’s rally from its 14,589 October low has been followed by one of this year’s strongest weekly rallies amid a dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook and softer US employment data. A rise above Friday’s 15,368 high will put the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and the July-to-November downtrend line at 15,386 to 15,420 on the map. Slightly above it sits major resistance between the 15,455 to 15,575 July-to-mid-September lows and the mid-October high. Slips should find support around the 15,104 mid-October low below which lies the minor psychological 15,000 mark and the early October low at 14,944. DAX40 Daily Chart See How IG Client Sentiment Can Affect Price Forecasts S&P 500 futures point to higher open after several dismal weeks Last week the S&P 500 saw its strongest weekly year-to-date gain thanks to softer economic data, and a subdued non-farm payroll report. These led market participants to believe that the Fed has ended its rate hike cycle and that the US economy remains on track for a soft landing. The next upside target is the October high at 4,398 which needs to be exceeded on a daily chart closing basis for a technical bottoming formation to be confirmed. If so, an advance towards the September peak at 4,540 may be seen into year-end. Minor support below the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 4,354 can be spotted around the 4,337 August low and the breached September-to-November downtrend line, now because of inverse polarity a support line, at 4,315 as well as at the 4,311 mid-October low. S&P 500 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ftse-100-dax-40-and-s-p-500-lose-upside-momentum-following-last-week-s-strong-gains-20231106.html