2023-11-06 08:10

AUD/USD ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS Weaker US dollar propping up AUD after Friday’s NFP. RBA expected to hike rates by 25bps tomorrow. AUD/USD holding above key 0.65 support handle. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP The Australian dollar has held onto last week’s gains after the US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report missed estimates causing a dip in US Treasury yields. Implied Fed funds futures show a dovish repricing of interest rate expectations to roughly 95bps of cumulative rate cuts by December 2024 vs 60bps just a few weeks ago. This may an overreaction as one data print does not make a trend and further confirmation will be required in the coming months. Consensus is for a rate hike after persistent high inflation plagues the economy but with global recessionary fears gaining traction, will this deter central bank officials from hiking again? After keeping rates on hold (4.1%) from June this year, a jump could see the AUD back up around the 0.6600 level. RBA INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES Source: Refinitiv TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, TradingView Daily AUD/USD price action above is slowly approaching the overbought zone as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) but has more room to appreciate. As mentioned above, short-term directional bias will be determined by the RBA tomorrow. A rate pause could see the pair slip back below 0.6500 once more and a hike could bring into consideration the 200-day moving average (blue)/0.6596 resistance zone respectively. Key resistance levels: 0.6596/200-day MA Key support levels: 0.6500 0.6459 50-day moving average (yellow) IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: BULLISH (AUD/USD) IGCS shows retail traders are currently net LONG on AUD/USD, with 59% of traders currently holding long positions. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-aud-usd-price-forecast-aussie-dollar-looks-to-rba-for-guidance-wv-20231106.html

2023-11-05 17:00

Most Read: US Dollar Forecast - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD Break Out, USD/JPY Flat U.S. Treasury yields plummeted this past week after Fed Chair Powell failed to redirect investors toward pricing further monetary tightening and U.S. employment data revealed a sharp slowdown in hiring activity. The large retreat in yields sent the broader U.S. dollar reeling, paving the way for a furious rally in major currency pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD heading into the weekend. Bond market dynamics also benefited risk assets, boosting both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, which had their best week since November 2022. With sentiment clearly recovering and signs that a recession is not yet imminent, stocks may have room to run higher in the near term, with seasonality possibly providing an additional source of strength. For a complete overview of the euro’s technical and fundamental outlook in the coming months, make sure to grab your complimentary Q4 trading forecast now! Focusing on gold, bullion was subdued, unable to take advantage of the weaker U.S. dollar and falling government rates. This is probably because the geopolitical premium built up in the precious metal following the terrorist attacks in Israel has started to unwind, as the war against Hamas has not escalated into a wider regional conflict in the Middle East. Looking ahead, there are no major economic reports in the U.S in the coming week., but several Federal Reserve members, including Powell, will speak publicly. Retail traders should closely follow these events and scrutinize official statements for insights into the central bank's thinking and the likely path of monetary policy. Any indication that the policymakers will tread carefully and refrain from hiking rates again could weigh on Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, but support stocks and precious metals. Hawkish commentary could have the opposite effect on these assets. For a deeper dive into the catalysts that could guide markets and create volatility, be sure to check out selected forecasts put together by the DailyFX team. FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL FORECASTS British Pound (GBP/USD) Reverses Sharply Higher After US Jobs Data The US bond market is sending out a clear signal: interest rates have peaked and they are going down next year. This US dollar weakness is helping GBP/USD reverse its recent slump. Australian Dollar Forecast: The RBA is Under Starters Orders The Australian Dollar found some traction ahead of the RBA monetary policy decision in the aftermath of accelerating inflation. Will a rate hike further boost AUD/USD and AUD/JPY? Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast: BoJ Tweak Fails to Inspire but Dollar Weakness Looks Promising for USD/JPY The BoJ delivered a minimal tweak to policy this week with markets still betting on rate hikes in April 2024. USDJPY benefitted from a weaker US Dollar which should it continue could negate the need for full-blown BoJ FX intervention. Euro Forecast: Euro Picks up after Markets Signal End to US Rate Hikes EUR/USD was the main beneficiary of the dollar’s massive slide late on Friday after markets reduced the likelihood of another US hike amid slowing jobs data. US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD Break Out, USD/JPY Flat In this article, we analyze EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD from a technical standpoint, highlighting crucial price levels that may act as support or resistance in the upcoming week. Gold/Silver Weekly Forecast: Investors Capitalize on Weak NFPs Gold & silver prices rallied last week leaving technical signals in favor of additional upside as markets prepare for several Fed speakers throughout the week. --- Individual Articles Composed by DailyFX Team Members https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-markets-week-ahead-gold-muted-nasdaq-100-eur-usd-gbp-usd-rip-as-us-yields-sink-20231105.html

2023-11-05 13:00

GOLD/SILVER OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS Weaker US labor data and safe haven demand bolster gold prices. All eyes turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Michigan consumer sentiment. XAG/USD looks to extend gains as XAU/USD could see some drawback. XAU/USD & XAG/USD FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP Gold prices exploited the weaker than expected Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report last week Friday that showed a higher unemployment rate and lower wage growth (a key contributor to inflationary pressures in the US). Although one release does not make a trend, this may be the beginning of a weaker jobs market within the region. The Federal Reserve would welcome such data in an environment where tight monetary policy conditions have heightened recessionary and stagflation concerns of recent. The known-on effect on financial markets saw a drastic decline in US Treasury yields, thus translating through to a fall in real yields (see graphic below). Overall, gold’s attractiveness has increased considering the opportunity cost of holding gold has decreased. US REAL YIELDS (10-YEAR) Source: Refinitiv Money markets have shifted their interest rate expectations for the Fed by roughly 90bps from just a few weeks ago in terms of cumulative rate hikes by December 2024 (152bps) with the first cut projected around May/June as opposed to July. IMPLIED FED FUNDS FUTURES Source: Refinitiv From a geopolitical standpoint, the war between Israel-Hamas remains volatile and will continue to support gold prices due to its safe haven allure. While the war is relatively contained at this point, any escalation could stoke contagion fears, ultimately driving up the price of gold. Source: DailyFX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GOLD/SILVER RATIO DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, TradingView The gold/silver ratio price chart shows a developing ascending triangle pattern that could favor a further increase in the ratio reading. With gold and silver possibly staying elevated throughout the medium-term, gold may be the favorable metal. MORE ON THE GOLD/SILVER RATIO HERE! GOLD PRICE DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, TradingView Daily XAU/USD price action currently trades within a rising wedge type formation (black) that traditionally appears after a prior downtrend. In this case, the uptrend negates much of the patterns validity but with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in overbought territory, a pullback may not be out of the questions. A longer-term view could see gold price pair back after which a potential golden cross could form, allowing for another leg higher for XAU/USD. Resistance levels: 2048.79 2000.00 1987.42 Support levels: Wedge support 1950.00 SILVER PRICE DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, TradingView Silver prices are exhibiting a continuation pattern known as the bull pennant (black). Bulls will be looking for a breakout and confirmation close above pennant resistance/200-day moving average (blue) while a close below support could invalidate the upside move. Resistance levels: 25.000 24.521 23.768 Pennant resistance/200-day MA Support levels: 50-day MA Pennant support 23.376 22.117 GOLD & SILVER IG CLIENT SENTIMENT: BULLISH https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-gold-silver-weekly-forecast-investors-capitalize-on-weak-nfps-wv-20231105.html

2023-11-03 12:50

US NFP Data for October NFP 150k vs 180k estimate, September’s 336k print revised lower to 297k. Unemployment rate 3.9% vs 3.8% exp Fed funds futures lower estimates of another Fed hike this year Immediate market reaction: USD, yields drop while gold rises The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library NFP Prints at 150k vs 180k and September’s Figure Revised Down to 297k Non-farm payroll data for October disappointed estimates of a 180k coming in at a 150k. In addition, the unemployment rate rose slightly from 3.8% to 3.9% while average hourly earnings posted mixed figures, rising year on year but cooling slightly month on month. The data comes after the FOMC meeting earlier this week where the Fed maintained its hawkish stance but sprinkled in dovish concerns around the ongoing tightening (via elevated US yields) and the potential for a change in economic fortunes into year end. Earlier this week other labour data like ADP employment change and the JOLTs report revealed a miss versus the estimate and little change in job openings respectively. The Fed has been calling for a period of below trend growth and a moderate rise in unemployment to help calm inflation, something that could very well be underway. The recent sell off in the bond market may well have seen its peak as treasury yields and the dollar move steadily lower. in addition Fed funds futures suggest an even lower probability of another rate hike before the end of the year with potential rate cuts creeping slightly closer. Markets will be scrutinizing future economic data for any signs of weakness that would strengthen the viewpoint that interest rates in the US may have already peaked. FedWatch Tool Showing Implied Probabilities of the Fed Funds Rate in December Source: CME FedWatch Tool, prepared by Richard Snow Immediate Market Reaction: USD, Yields Down, Gold Gains The dollar dropped on the print rather unsurprisingly. The market had still been holding on to the idea that the Fed may be forced into another hike based on US outperformance in recent fundamental data. Market perceptions of the FOMC meeting midweek (hawkish with dovish undertones) sent the dollar lower and the NFP miss adds fuel to the fire. US Dollar Basket (DXY) 5-Minute Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow The 2-year US treasury yield dropped around 2.7% in the moments following the release, as markets reassess the likelihood of another rate cut from the Fed. US 2-Year Treasury Yields 5-Minute Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Gold also witnessed a sizeable move but to the upside as the weaker US dollar provides an instant discount for foreign buyers of the precious metal. Could the metal rise further after witnessing an increase in bidders into the weekend as traders brace for any potential conflict escalations in the Middle East - although, this effect has been less apparent after the Israeli Prime Minister said the war would be a long one. Gold (XAU/USD) 5-Minute Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-breaking-news-nfp-disappointment-sinks-usd-gold-bid-20231103.html

2023-11-03 11:33

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis, Prices, and Charts US Treasury yields stem recent sell-off. US NFPs are the next potential driver of price action. Gold is struggling to regain its recent highs despite US Treasury yields turning sharply lower this week. There is a growing market sentiment that global bond yields have peaked, especially in the longer-end, and with recession fears growing, the market is continuing to price in peak rates. After trading above 5% less than two weeks ago, the yield on the US 10-year benchmark is currently at 4.66%, while the 30-year long bond is now offered at 4.82% compared to a peak of 5.18% on October 23rd. The 5.02% print on the US 10-year was a new 16-year high. US Treasury 10-Year Yield Coming up shortly is the closely watched US Jobs Report (NFP), a known market mover. The US jobs market remains robust and the Fed would like to see the labor market weaken as the US central bank continues to battle with above-target inflation. Around 180k new jobs are expected to have been created in October and any miss of this forecast or a meaningful revision lower of last month’s blockbuster 336k could see bond yields, and the US dollar, move lower. Gold is in a holding pattern ahead of today’s jobs data and is unlikely to move ahead of the release. The precious metal tries to break resistance at $2,009/oz. on three occasions but has been unsuccessful so far. Support is seen at $1,973/oz. ahead of $1,960/oz. Gold Daily Price Chart – November 3, 2023 Chart via TradingView What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-xau-usd-struggling-to-push-higher-us-jobs-report-next-20231103.html

2023-11-03 10:50

Article by IG Chief Market Analyst Chris Beauchamp FTSE 100, DAX 40, S&P 500 Analysis and Charts FTSE 100 in bullish short-term form The rally off the 7300 continued on Thursday, with impressive gains for the index that have resulted in a move back through 7400. This now leaves the index on the cusp of a bullish MACD crossover, and could now see the price on course to test the 200-day SMA, and then on to 7700. A reversal back below 7320 would negate this view. FTSE 100 Daily Chart Dax 40 at two-week high The index made big gains for a second consecutive day, and with a fresh bullish MACD crossover the buyers appear to be firmly in charge.The next stop is trendline resistance from the August record high, and then on the declining 50-day SMA, which the index has not challenged since early September. A failure to break trendline resistance might dent the bullish view, though a close below 15,000 would be needed to give a firmer bearish outlook. This would then put the lows of October back into view. DAX 40 Daily Chart S&P 500 in strong form ahead of non-farm payrolls The index has recouped a significant amount of the losses suffered in October, and like the Dax is now barrelling towards trendline resistance and then the 50-day SMA.Beyond these lies the 4392 peak from early October, and a close above here would solidify the bullish view. A reversal back below the 200-day SMA would signal that the sellers have reasserted control and that a move back towards 4100 could be underway. S&P 500 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ftse-100-dax-40-and-s-p-500-sitting-at-two-week-highs-20231103.html