2023-10-31 09:50

Article by IG Chief Market Analyst Chris Beauchamp Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, Nikkei 225 Analysis and Charts Nasdaq 100 continues its recovery The index has recovered from the lows seen last week, after nearing the 200-day SMA. For the moment, the pullback from the October highs is still in place and leaves the bearish view intact for the short-term. A close above 14,400 (Monday’s highs) would suggest that the buyers remain in control, and a bullish daily MACD crossover would bolster that view. This would then see the price target 14,800 initially. A reversal below 14,150 would indicate that the sellers are back in charge. Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart Dow edges above 33,000 Monday saw the index surge back towards 33,000, after a drop on Friday to fresh seven-month lows. Having moved back above the early October low, the index now looks in more short-term bullish form. The 200-day SMA and the 34,000 highs from early October now come into view. A failure to hold above 32,700 would be a negative development for this bullish view, and a close back below 32,500 would add further weight to the bearish outlook. Dow Jones Daily Chart Nikkei 225 rallies off support zone Once more the price has begun to rally from the 30,500 area, in a similar move to that seen at the beginning of the month. In the short-term a rebound targets trendline resistance from the September high, and then the October highs around 32,500. Beyond this, gentler trendline resistance from the June highs comes into view. Sellers have been unable to drive the price below 30,500 in any meaningful fashion, so while this holds the bearish view is limited. Nikkei 225 Daily Chart https://www.dailyfx.com/news/nasdaq-100-dow-and-nikkei-225-make-headway-in-morning-trading-20231031.html

2023-10-31 07:45

AUD/USD ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS Weak Chinese factory activity figures limit AUD upside. US CB consumer confidence in focus later today. Bulls attempt upside breakout as descending triangle resistance comes under pressure. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Assistant Governor Brad Jones spoke earlier this morning but did not give much away in the form of monetary policy; however, the statement below highlighted the uncertainty around interest rates: “War, global trade disruptions, cyberattacks and climate change could make interest rates more volatile” One positive from an AUD perspective came via the housing credit MoM figure that reached fresh yearly highs at 0.4%. That being said, inflation has been relatively sticky and keeps the RBA rate decision on November 7th in favor of a 25bps rate hike (refer to table below). Later today, the US CB consumer confidence print will come into focus as well as labor cost data ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report. . RBA INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES Source: Refinitiv TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, TradingView Daily AUD/USD price action above is finding defiance around the longer-term trendline resistance (dashed black line) zone. Bulls will be looking for a confirmation close above this zone as well as the 50-day moving average (yellow) before looking to capitalize on a potential reversal. From a bearish standpoint, the descending triangle pattern with support around 0.6272 is still developing and could remain in consideration should prices slip. Key resistance levels: 0.6500 0.6459 50-day moving average (yellow) Trendline resistance 0.6358 Key support levels: 0.6272 0.6170 IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA: BULLISH (AUD/USD) IGCS shows retail traders are currently net LONG on AUD/USD, with 73% of traders currently holding long positions. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-aud-usd-price-forecast-aussie-dollar-bruised-by-chinese-pmi-s-wv-20231031.html

2023-10-30 20:49

USD/JPY PRICES, CHARTS AND ANALYSIS: USD/JPY Drops to 149.00 Posting Two Successive Days of Losses Since Mid-August. Nikkei Asia Say BoJ are Deliberating Another Tweak to the YCC Policy. Will They Follow Through? IG Client Sentiment Has the Majority of Traders Holding Short Positions on USDJPY. To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. Most Read: S&P 500 and Gold (XAU/USD) Take Diverging Paths Ahead of a Raft of Data Releases The Yen has put in two consecutive days of gains against the greenback for the first time since August. A sign of the pressure the Japanese currency has been under for a large part of Q3 and Q4 thus far. Markets have been waiting with bated breath for the threat of FX intervention to materialize which has kept USDJPY bereft of a clear direction. NIKKEI NEWS AND BANK OF JAPAN (BoJ) INTEREST RATE MEETING The Japanese Government has tried to use warnings of intervention to underpin the Yen in the second half of 2023. This approach does appear to be wearing thin however, as market participants have grown accustomed to the warnings being followed up by very little action from the Central Bank. This morning however we saw a report from Nikkei Asia that the BoJ maybe preparing to adjust the Yield Curve Control policy once more and allow 10Y Japanese Government bond Yields to rise above 1%. The question on market participants minds will be whether the BoJ will follow through. The bigger picture is obvious, in that Governor Ueda was brought in to normalize monetary policy. Yet till now we have only heard the BoJ use comments to taper Yen weakness, but one fears more may need to be done if the US Dollar Index continues to hold the high ground. RISK EVENTS AHEAD A lot on the calendar this week with tomorrows BoJ meeting kicking things off. The BoJ meeting could be the most exciting one in recent memory if the BoJ do announce a shake up to their YCC policy which could stoke some serious volatility in Japanese Yen pairs. Following the BoJ meeting the outlook for the USDJPY may be drastically different ahead of the FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve are expected to hold rates steady but focus will be on the Fed outlook moving forward and a potential hike in December. The strong data from the US keeps the door open for now with market participants looking for further clarity. FINAL THOUGHTS AND TECHNICAL OUTLOOK USD/JPY technical outlook remains complicated given the steep rise and long period of consolidation of late. We have however printed two successive days of losses for the first time since August, which could be a sign that further downside may be imminent. As we have discussed for months, without a change in monetary policy from the BoJ the likelihood of a sustained move to the downside may remain elusive. A daily candle close below the recent range and 50-day MA resting around the 148.300 mark. This could be another sign that we are building bearish momentum. However, the question of how large a move we may get will depend solely on the BoJ meeting tomorrow and what changes/tweaks the Central Bank makes to monetary policy. Key Intraday Levels to Keep an Eye On: Support levels: 148.30 147.50 145.00 Resistance levels: 150.00 152.10 USD/JPY Daily Chart – October 30, 2023 Source: TradingView, Chart Created by Zain Vawda IGCS shows retail traders are currently Net-Short on USDJPY, with 83% of traders currently holding SHORT positions. Given the contrarian view adopted here at DailyFX will we see a return to the 150.00 level and beyond? https://www.dailyfx.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-boj-meeting-to-deliver-another-tweak-to-ycc-policy-145-00-incoming-20231030.html

2023-10-30 18:24

S&P 500 & GOLD PRICE FORECAST: Gold (XAU/USD) Struggles as Sentiment Improves. Will a Sustainable Move Above $2000/oz Materialize? S&P 500 Ended Last Week Down 10% from the YTD High. This is Usually Seen as a Correction. A Host of Earnings and Data Releases Lie in Wait. Will the Earnings and Data Releases be Able to Overshadow the Geopolitical Risks and Drive Market Moves This Week? To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. Most Read: Euro Weekly Forecast: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Remain Vulnerable Following Lackluster ECB Meeting The S&P 500 looks set to arrest its slump today as safe-haven appeal takes a breather and traders focus on a host of data events later this week. The tension in the Middle East threatened to boil over heading into the weekend. However, the ground offensive by the Israeli military turned out to be less than first feared which appears to have helped risk sentiment. Earnings at the back end of last week remained largely positive with no significant misses except the already discussed Alphabet cloud business. McDonald’s released earning this morning and surprised with a beat thanks in part to new products and low pricing keeping customers coming back for more. On Friday the S&P had lost around 10% from the July high which is key as a dop of 10% in equity markets is usually viewed as a correction. Buying pressure has returned since but whether or not it will be sustainable will be something to watch as the week unfolds. S&P 500 Losses from the July High Exceeds 10%- Correction? Source: TradingView S&P 500 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Form a technical perspective, the S&P failed to reach the 4000 mark as discussed last week with a pullback today. However, we are seeing a bit of selling pressure returns as we head deeper into the US session. The S&P as mentioned earlier has fallen 10% from the YTD high in what is usually considered a corrective move. This could also in part be the reason for the buying pressure while sellers may also be cashing in ahead of heavy data releases later in the week. In what could be viewed as an ominous sign is the approach of a potential death cross formation as the 20-day MA looks to cross below the 200-day MA. This would be a nod to the strength of the downtrend as well as provide sellers with a bit more optimism for further declines. Now I am not sure if this will happen before the FOMC meeting, and we could remain rangebound till the meeting is out of the way. Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Support levels: 4100 4000 4047 Resistance levels: 4198 4251 4325 S&P 500 October 30, 2023 Source: TradingView, Chart Prepared by Zain Vawda GOLD OUTLOOK Gold for its part enjoyed buying pressure late into the US session on Friday as news came through that Israel would begin a ground offensive. Safe-Haven appeal clearly helping the precious metal end the week on a high. As mentioned, we are seeing a slight improvement in sentiment to start the week which has seen Gold flirt with the $2000 mark. If the bullish rally is to continue, we do need acceptance above the $2000 mark. The situation in the Middle East remains the key driver for Gold prices ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and without any surprise from the Fed could continue to drive prices for the foreseeable future. A lot of data ahead this week coupled with the continuation of US earnings season. Market participants appear to be adopting a cautious approach heading into the FOMC meeting on Wednesday as doubts linger around another rate hike from the Central Bank. IG CLIENT SENTIMENT Taking a quick look at the IG Client Sentiment, Retail Traders are currently LONG on Gold with 60% of traders holding LONG positions. Given the contrarian view adopted at DailyFX when it comes to client sentiment, is Gold on its way back toward the $1980 support area? Gold (XAU/USD) October 30, 2023 Source: TradingView, Chart Prepared by Zain Vawda Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Support levels: 1993 1983 1973 Resistance levels: 2000 2009.50 2022 https://www.dailyfx.com/news/s-p-500-and-gold-xau-usd-take-diverging-paths-ahead-of-a-raft-of-data-releases-20231030.html

2023-10-30 16:33

Oil (Brent Crude) News and Analysis The weekend premium was deflated on Monday as markets look to the Fed Oil heads lower after respecting resistance at $89 a barrel EU data underscores growth slowdown in major economies The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Oil Starts the Week on the Back Foot Oil prices were bid on Friday, retesting the $89 per barrel level once again. Two days prior, the same narrow intra-day range was observed between $87 and $89 where prices has remained. However, today oil dropped sharply back to $87 once it became clear that the war in the Middle East had not escalated to a full ground invasion – a chance markets have not been willing to take. In fact, oil and gold had shown a tendency to rise into the weekend as traders positioned for the worst. Monday then represents a period of reflection and slight relief seeing that a massive operation was avoided or delayed. Oil has also shown a lower sensitivity to news flow from the region after OPEC distanced itself from political responses after Iran called for an oil embargo on Israel. The focus appears to have become less about supply uncertainties and more about waning global demand for oil as major economies struggle under restrictive conditions. EU data this morning revealed another quarterly contraction in Germany, narrowly avoiding another technical recession after Q2 GDP came in flat. The negative outlook for growth is likely to feed into a lower global demand for oil which may see prices ease into the end of the year. The 30-minute chart shows the oil price drop on a more magnified level, now testing the $87 level. Brent Crude 30-Minute Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow The daily chart shows the multi-day consolidation after invalidating the ascending channel. The direction of the commodity remains uncertain as incoming data shifts the focus from one concern to the next. However, oil supply in the region has been unaffected and therefore, concerns linked to the global growth slowdown may soon outweigh supply concerns, placing downward pressure on oil. A tight oil market should ensure prices do not drop too low, possibly facilitating range bound setups. Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow WTI oil sentiment data below can be used as a proxy for Brent crude oil: Oil- US Crude:Retail trader data shows 77.02% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.35 to 1. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggestsOil- US Crude prices may continue to fall. Find out why daily and weekly changes in sentiment can aid/invalidate contrarian signals based entirely on overall positioning data below: https://www.dailyfx.com/news/brent-crude-oil-starts-the-week-on-the-back-foot-as-war-premium-subsides-20231030.html

2023-10-30 14:40

Bitcoin (BTC) Prices, Charts, and Analysis: A Bullish Pennant breakout is currently being tested. A Golden Cross – 50-/200-day sma crossover has been formed. We have been positive on Bitcoin over the past few weeks due to a cluster of positive fundamental drivers. The main driver is the growing ‘when not if’ decision on a spot Bitcoin ETF with a raft of heavyweight names, including BlackRock and Fidelity, waiting for the SEC to give them the green light. There are currently nine spot Bitcoin ETF applications sitting on the SEC’s desk and the regulator may have to grant all of them at the same time to prevent any one firm from getting a first mover’s advantage. Bitcoin (BTC) Pumping Back to ETF Rumor High, No Smoke Without Fire? The technical outlook for Bitcoin looks positive with two bullish indicators seen on the charts. The recent surge higher has seen a Bullish Pennant pattern appear with BTC currently trying to break higher. If a traditional pattern has been made, the October 23rd, $5k candle would be added to the breakout giving a target price of around $40k. The chart also shows a 50-/200-day bullish crossover (Golden Cross), another potential driver of higher prices. The crossover is seen by some technical analysts as a trigger for higher prices due to the potential for a bullish trend continuation. The Golden Cross As long as Bitcoin stays above $32,832 in the short term the move higher should continue. A confirmed sell-off would eye a final target at $30k. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Price Chart – October 30, 2023 What is your view on Bitcoin – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/bitcoin-btc-technical-outlook-chart-suggests-higher-prices-are-likely-20231030.html