2023-10-27 15:20

NASDAQ 100 FORECAST: The Nasdaq 100 rebounds off technical support heading into the weekend following a selloff in the previous trading sessions Amazon leads the charge higher thanks to solid corporate earnings Despite the positive mood on Wall Street, market risks remain elevated ahead of the Fed decision next Wednesday Most Read: USD Breaking News - Dollar Index Slides as PCE Data Declines in Line with Estimates The Nasdaq 100 staged a moderate comeback on Friday after a large selloff in previous trading sessions, with the tech index bouncing off cluster support in the 14,150/13,930 region, propelled higher by Amazon's spectacular rally in the aftermath of the company’s quarterly results. For context, shares of the e-commerce giant (AMZN) advanced more than 7% following better-than-expected Q3 earnings and constructive guidance for its cloud services business, which accelerated late in the quarter, with "surprising" uptake for its generative AI products. AMAZON EARNINGS Source: DailyFX Earnings Calendar While sentiment appears to be on the mend, a one-day relief rally will not significantly erase what has transpired since the middle of July: the tech index has fallen sharply, entering correction territory earlier this week after posting a 10% drop from the 2023 high. For clues on market trajectory, traders should closely follow the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement next week and, more importantly, its forward guidance. While no change in interest rates is expected, the central bank could offer insight into its next steps in terms of its hiking campaign. With Fedspeak mixed in recent weeks, it is important to watch what Fed Chair Powell has to say. In the event that the FOMC shows an inclination to hike borrowing costs again in 2023, tech stocks could come under pressure. Conversely, any signal that the tightening cycle has ended should favor risk assets. The U.S. economy has been extremely resilient this year, thanks in part to strong consumer spending. Against this backdrop, inflation could remain sticky, pushing policymakers to keep their options open in case further monetary policy tightening is necessary. This could weigh on the Nasdaq 100. NASDAQ 100 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS From a technical standpoint, the Nasdaq 100 is currently sitting near an area of cluster support that stretches from 14,150 to 13,930, where the lower limit of the short-term descending channel converges with the 200-day SMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the October 2022/July 2023 leg higher. To create a pathway for a potential bullish resurgence, it is vital for confluence support in the 14,150/13,930 range to hold. Any breach of this zone could spark a steep retrenchment, potentially taking prices towards 13,270, which aligns with the 50% Fib retracement. In the event that the bulls manage to drive the index higher, initial resistance is positioned at 14,600. Upside clearance of this barrier could rekindle upward impetus and pave the way for a move to 14,860. On further strength, the attention will turn to 15,100. NASDAQ 100 TECHNICAL CHART Nasdaq 100 Futures Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/nasdaq-100-finds-spark-thanks-to-amazon-ahead-of-fed-dead-cat-bounce-or-not-20231027.html

2023-10-27 12:54

US Core PCE Key Points: Core PCE Price Index YoY (DEC) Actual 3.7% Vs 3.8% Previous. PCE Price Index YoY (DEC) Actual 3.4% Vs 3.4% Previous. DXY Slides Off Key Resistance Area. Rangebound Ahead of the FOMC Meeting Next Week? To Learn More About Price Action,Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. MOST READ: Oil Price Forecast: WTI Rangebound as Demand Concerns Resurface. $80 a Barrel Incoming? Personal income increased $77.8 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This comes following a 0.4% increase in August and beating the market consensus of a 0.5% advance. Spending on services saw a substantial increase of $96.2 billion, or 0.8%, while spending on goods also rose by $42.5 billion, or 0.7%. Among services, spending was up for other services, particularly international travel; housing and utilities, mainly housing expenses; health care, dominated by hospitals and nursing homes; and transportation, primarily air transportation. The Core PCE price index increased by 0.3% from the previous month in September of 2023, the most in 4 months, aligning with market estimates and accelerating from the 0.1% increase from the earlier month. The YoY rate which remains the Feds preferred Inflation Gauge eased slightly to 3.7%, the lowest since May 2021, but held sharply above the central bank's target of 2%. US ECONOMY AHEAD OF THE FOMC MEETING Q3 GDP data came out from the US beating estimates comfortably in what was largely an expected print of 4.9%. The jump was attributed to strong government and consumer spending during the end of the summer period. However, as I alluded to in my piece post the GDP release there are a lot of headwinds for the US and Global economy in Q4. As the higher rates for longer idea takes hold and keeps consumers stretched financially a similar print in Q4 does not look promising. The concerns for the Economy are down to reasons such as depleted savings for households, student loan repayments have resumed. All of the above would point to a moderate growth print for Q4 of 2023. Net Week we have the FOMC meeting and rate decision with another hold largely expected. It will be key to gauge the rhetoric of Fed Chair Powell as there are still some who see a December hike as a possibility. Today's data is unlikely to sway that conversation in any particular direction given the small change in the PCE data unlikely to see the Fed completely rule out a further rate hike with the Central Bank likely to leave the door open should the need arise. MARKET REACTION Following the data release the dollar index declined and rejected off the key resistance area around the 106.80-107.20 mark. The index continues to struggle at tis key inflection point and may remain rangebound ahead of next week's FOMC meeting. Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Support levels: 106.35 105.60 105.00 Resistance levels: 106.80 107.20 108.00 Dollar Index Daily Chart- October 27, 2023 Source: TradingView, prepared by Zain Vawda https://www.dailyfx.com/news/usd-breaking-news-dollar-index-slides-as-pce-data-declines-in-line-with-estimates-20231027.html

2023-10-27 11:30

Gold, Brent Crude Oil News and Analysis Israeli tanks led a brief raid into Gaza overnight to “prepare the battlefield” Gold remains elevated, on track for a modest weekly rise as tensions remain high Brent crude attempts recovery but global growth concerns weigh on sentiment The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Israeli Tanks Led a Brief Raid into Gaza as Ground Offensive is Delayed On Thursday night, tanks and troops crossed into Northern Gaza in what is expected to be preparations for a larger ground invasion. The Israeli Defence Force (IDF) said the ground raid was conducted to strike several military targets. The move into Gaza territory was the largest incursion of the ongoing war but gold traders do not appear to be flooding back into the precious metal ahead of the weekend, or at least not yet. Over the last week four hostages have been released and Hamas now calls for a ceasefire to locate and gather hostages, the release of which will be contingent on a ceasefire. Taking a look at the daily gold chart it is clear to see the slowdown in price appreciation around the $1985 level where a number of upper wicks signal a momentary reluctance to surge higher. Gold prices will be largely directed by the ongoing conflict with the potential to rise once again if the conflict extends into a broader regional fight. Therefore the current market posture may prove to be short-lived. Levels of note to the upside include the $2010, which appeared as resistance earlier this year around the banking turmoil, and the all-time high around $2081.80. Elevated US yields have had little effect in containing recent advances as the yellow metal proved its value as a safe haven asset. Support remains at $1937 which coincides with the 200 SMA. Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow 30-day implied gold volatility has also dropped off in recent sessions but remains a long way from the low. Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Brent Crude Oil Attempts Recovery but Global Growth Concerns Weigh on Sentiment The worsening outlook in Europe has oil traders doubting if global demand for oil will remain resilient heading into next year. European PMI data revealed continued fragility in both manufacturing and services sectors while the Bundesbank suggested Q3 is likely to reveal an economic contraction. That would mean that three of the last four quarters registered contractions. Fiscal stimulus measures from China have been unable to revive risk sentiment particularly given that one of the country’s largest property developers, Country Garden’s was unable to meet debt repayments. On the other hand, the US continues to produce stellar economic growth via its Q3 GDP results which beat estimates. A high US dollar and uncertain economic outlook appears to be plaguing oil. A considerable zone of confluence has emerged around the $89.00 level which coincides with prior channel support and the 50 simple moving average (SMA). $87 is the nearest intra-day level of support, followed by $82 which appears near the 200 SMA. Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Oil is a complex market that is inextricably linked to the forces of supply and demand but also has the potential to respond to geopolitical conflict in oil producing nations. Learn more below: https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-oil-trajectories-lose-momentum-amid-threat-of-escalation-20231027.html

2023-10-27 10:00

Article by IG Senior Market Analyst Axel Rudolph FTSE 100, DAX 40, Russell 2000 Analysis and Charts FTSE 100 remains under pressure The FTSE 100 tries to remain above this week’s low at 7,323 but continues to be under immediate pressure whilst trading below Wednesday’s 7,430 high. Failure at 7,323 would put the 7,228 to 7,204 March-to-August lows back on the plate. While 7,323 underpins, the early September and early October lows at 7,369 to 7,384 are to be revisited. A rise above the next higher 7,430 high could lead to the May and early August lows at 7,433 to 7,438 being back in sight. Further resistance can be seen along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,493 and at the 7,524 early September high. FTSE 100 Daily Chart DAX 40 still trades in seven-month lows The DAX 40’s rejection by its early October 14,944 low, which acted as resistance on Tuesday, and the fact that the index remains below its accelerated downtrend line at 14,788, continues to put pressure on it with this week’s seven month low at 14,626 remaining within sight. If slipped through, the March trough at 14,459 would be back in focus. Minor resistance above the accelerated downtrend line at 14,788 sits at Monday’s 14,853 high. DAX 40 Daily Chart Russell 2000 trades at a one-year low above key support The Russell 2000, the great underperformer of US stock indices with a 5% negative performance year-to-date, is trading in one-year lows. The index has come close to its major 1,633 to 1,631 September and October 2022 lows as risk-off sentiment and worse-than-expected earnings drag the index lower. While Thursday’s low at 1,642 holds, though, a minor bounce on short-covering trades into the weekend may ensue. The previous December 2022 to May major support zone at 1,690 to 1,700, now because of inverse polarity a resistance area, may be tested but is likely to cap. If not, minor resistance can be spotted at the 1,707 early October low and also at the 1,713 mid-October low. Russell 2000 Daily Chart Top Trading Opportunities for Q4 https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ftse-100-dax-40-and-russell-2000-try-to-end-dismal-week-on-a-positive-note-20231027.html

2023-10-27 07:42

Japanese Yen Prices, Charts, and Analysis BoJ meeting is key for the Yen. USD/JPY is testing the BoJ’s resolve. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and the Bank of Japan all announce their latest monetary policy decisions next week and it is the latter that is most likely to spark a fresh bout of volatility. While the Fed and the BoE are expected to leave all policy dials untouched, the BoJ may well tweak their current yield curve control policy and allow JGB yields to move higher. The Japanese central bank currently caps the benchmark 10-year bond yield at 1%, and intervenes if this threshold comes under pressure, but market talk at the moment suggests that the BoJ may allow market yields to rise to 1.5%, a hawkish twist and one that would strengthen the Yen. Earlier today the latest Tokyo CPI reading beat market forecasts and showed price pressures rising. This reading is seen as a proxy for national inflation trends and may nudge the BoJ towards acknowledging that inflation in Japan is finally starting to become entrenched. If the Bank of Japan revises its inflation outlook higher, the Japanese Yen will strengthen across the board. BOJ intervention DailyFX Central Bank Calendar USD/JPY is trading at, or very close to, highs seen one year ago before BoJ intervention sent the pair spiraling lower. The 150 level has been seen as the line in the sand for USD/JPY for many weeks now with any test of this level met with rumors of Japanese official intervention. The pair currently trade just above 150 but a further move higher is very unlikely ahead of next week’s central bank meeting. While the BoJ meeting should be closely watched, the post-Fed decision press conference will also be key for the US dollar’s outlook. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart – October 27, 2023 What is your view on the Japanese Yen – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/japanese-yen-usd-jpy-testing-150-resistance-ahead-of-bank-of-japan-policy-decision-20231027.html

2023-10-27 03:00

HANG SENG, KOSPI, TOPIX – Price Action: The Hang Seng Index, Kospi, and Topix have maintained a weak bias. Asian indices are at key support ahead of the US Fed interest rate decision. What is the outlook and the key levels to watch? Supercharge your trading prowess with an in-depth analysis of US Equities, offering insights from both fundamental and technical viewpoints. Claim your free Q4 trading guide now! Hang Seng Index: Downward momentum is increasing The sequence of lower-highs-lower-lows since early 2023 is a sign that the Hang Seng Index’s trend remains down. The index is now attempting to fall below vital support on the lower edge of a declining channel since early 2023. A decisive break below could pave the way toward the 2022 low of 14600. While oversold conditions and a string of policy measures have at best led to minor pauses within the downtrend so far. For more discussion see, “Q4 Trade Opportunity: HK/China Equities Could be Due for a Rebound,” published October 9. Hang Seng Index Weekly Chart Chart Created Using TradingView At a minimum, the Hang Seng Index needs to cross above the mid-October high of 18300 for the downward pressure to begin fading. For a sustained rebound, the index would need to cross several hurdles, including the upper edge of the channel, near the August high of 20350. Kospi: Approaches a vital floor Kospi’s break in August has truncated the nine-month-long recovery. This follows a failure in mid-2023 to cross above a major hurdle at the January low of 2590. Kospi’s fall this week to the lowest level since January means the target of the double top pattern (the June and August highs) of around 2380 has been achieved. Kospi Weekly Chart Chart Created Using TradingView Ashighlighted in the previous update, while there is no doubt that the bullish pressure has dissipated, Kospi would need to fall under the 2022 low of 2135, slightly above the 200-month moving average (now at about 2085) for downside risks to accentuate. The last time the index was decisively below the long-term moving average was in 2003. Topix: Holds above strong cushion Topix is holding above key support on a horizontal trendline from mid-2023 (at about 2200). Ashighlighted in the previous update, this cushion is strong and might not be broken easily. However, any break below would disrupt the higher-highs-higher-lows sequence prevailing in recent months, suggesting a temporary easing in the upward pressure. Any break below 2200 could open the door toward the 200-day moving average (now at about 2150). Topix Daily Chart Chart Created Using TradingView Zooming out, from a big-picture perspective, the index has shown gradual signs of strength in recent years, with the break above a horizontal trendline from the mid-1990s turning out to be unambiguously bullish. Unless the index falls below the resistance-turned-support at the 2021 high of 2120, the broader bullish picture remains intact. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/asian-indices-test-support-ahead-of-fomc-hang-seng-kospi-topix-price-setups-20231027.html