2023-10-19 05:05

S&P 500, SPX, NASDAQ 100, NDX - OUTLOOK: The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq 100 index have retreated from key resistance. Markets will be looking for indications of a Fed pivot from Powell’s tone and comments later Thursday. What are the outlook and the key levels to watch in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 index? US equity indices will be looking for cues from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell who is scheduled to speak later Thursday. That’s because, over the past couple of weeks, there has been a distinct shift in Fed rhetoric, even from some of the hawkish members. Several Fed officials have indicated a pause in hiking interest rates given the tightening in financial conditions as a result of the surge in Treasury yields. Minutes of the September FOMC meeting outlined the case for proceeding carefully in determining the extent of additional tightening, noting that participants generally judged that risks had become more two-sided. Pricing for the Fed terminal rate has reduced following the recent comments from Fed officials. Markets have been grappling with a mix of factors, including mounting tensions in the Middle East, elevated US yields, third-quarter earnings season, light equities positioning, and generally positive seasonality. Participants will be looking for a justification of the dovish market pricing from Powell’s tone and comments. S&P 500 240-Minute Chart Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView S&P 500: Capped at vital resistance On technical charts, the S&P 500 index has pulled back from key converged resistance on the 200-period moving average the upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the 240-minute charts, and the 89-day moving average. While the price action is still unfolding, the recent price action raises the odds that the near-term trend is at best sideways, as highlighted in the previous update. See “S&P 500 & Nasdaq Rebound from Key Support; How Much More Upside?” published October 10. The index has been nicely guided lower by a declining channel since July, with the cloud structure also changing in recent months, as highlighted in late September. See “US Indices Risk Support Test After Hawkish Fed: S&P 500, Nasdaq Price Action,” published September 21. It is now testing a key cushion at Friday’s low of 4377. Any break below could pave the way toward the early October low of 4215. Any break below the 200-day moving average could expose the downside initially toward the end-April low of 4050. S&P 500 Daily Chart Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView Zooming out from a multi-week perspective, the weakness since August reinforces the broader fatigue, as pointed out in previous updates. See “US Indices Hit a Roadblock After Solid Services Print: S&P 500, Nasdaq,” published September 7; “US Indices Rally Beginning to Crack? S&P 500, Nasdaq Price Setups,” published August 3; “S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Overly Optimistic Sentiment Poses a Minor Setback Risk,” published July 23. Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView Nasdaq 100: Channel resistance holds The Nasdaq 100 index has retreated from a stiff hurdle on the upper edge of a declining channel since July, not too far from the early-September high of 15618 and the July high of 15932. While the price action is still unfolding, the lower high created last week raises the risk of a retest of the September low of 14435. This support is crucial as any break below would disrupt the higher-highs-higher-lows sequence established since the start of the year. From a big-picture perspective, as highlighted in arecent update, the momentum on the monthly charts has been feeble compared with the huge rally since late 2022, raising the risk of a gradual weakening, similar to the gradual drift lower in gold since May. For more discussion, see “Is Nasdaq Following Gold’s Footsteps? NDX, XAU/USD Price Setups,” published August 14. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-indices-ahead-of-powell-s-p-500-nasdaq-price-setups-20231019.html

2023-10-17 02:57

EUR/USD ANALYSIS EUR/USD rebounds after weakness late last week, but geopolitical tensions remain a concern for riskier currencies A ground invasion of the Gaza Strip by Israel may have negative implications for the euro, as it has the potential to intensify tensions in the Middle East This article discusses crucial EUR/USD technical levels that warrant attention in the coming days. The euro appreciated moderately against the U.S. dollar on Monday (EUR/USD: +0.37% to 1.0546), but gains were moderate amid market caution in the FX space. Israel's decision to postpone its invasion of the Gaza Strip appears to have helped stabilize the mood at the margin, but the situation in the Middle East continues to be highly volatile and could worsen at any time following the recent Hamas terrorist attacks. With geopolitical tensions casting a shadow over the outlook, EUR/USD will remain in a precarious position and subject to headline-driven shifts. Within this context, any new developments suggesting a deterioration in the Israel-Palestine conflict are likely to weigh on riskier currencies, creating a more constructive backdrop for the greenback in the near term. Broadly speaking, the U.S. dollar is considered a safe-haven asset, so it tends to perform well in times of heightened uncertainty, high turbulence, and financial stress. From a technical perspective, EUR/USD sold off late last week, but started to recover after failing to pierce trendline support around the 1.0500 handle. Given the fragile market sentiment, bulls may struggle to push prices higher, but in case of additional gains, resistance lies at 1.0610/1.0635, the upper boundary of a short-term descending channel. Further up, the focus transitions to 1.0765, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July/October slump. Conversely, if sellers return and trigger a bearish reversal, support stretches from 1.0500 to 1.0465. While the pair may endeavor to establish a base within this region during a pullback, a breach of this floor could amplify downward momentum, paving the way for a pullback towards 1.0365. With ongoing weakness, the likelihood of a progression towards 1.0225 becomes more prominent. EUR/USD TECHNICAL CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-euro-forecast-eur-usd-perks-up-after-selloff-but-geopolitics-create-risks-how-20231016.html

2023-10-17 02:56

BITCOIN, CRYPTO KEY POINTS: Fake News Blunder of ETF Approval Sends Bitcoin into a Frenzy. A Large Portion of Gains Have Since Been Wiped Away. Binance to Stop Accepting New UK Clients Today as it Searches for Partner Authorized by the FCA to Approve Ads. Today’s Brief Spike a Sign of the Potential Rally Which Could Unfold Should Spot ETFs be Approved. To Learn More AboutPrice Action,Chart Patterns and Moving Averages,Check out the DailyFX Education Series. FAKE BLACKROCK ETF NEWS SENDS BITCOIN SOARING Bitcoin prices have had a volatile start to the US session as cryptocurrency-news platform Cointelegraph broadcasted news that the iShares Bitcoin ETF (BlackRock Group) had been approved. The news saw Bitcoin spike to a session high of $29900 while simultaneously dragging the Crypto markets as a whole higher with Ethereum spiking to around the $1670 mark. As it turned out the news was fake but with the modern day we live in the news had already spread like wildfire as evidenced by the spike in prices. Cryptotelegraph have come under scrutiny in light of the false news which stated that the BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF (known as iShares) had been approved which led to the 10%+ spike in BTCUSD to within a whisker of the psychological $30000 mark. First signs that the news was false were delivered by Fox News Reporter Eleanor Terrett who in a tweet revealed that BlackRock confirmed the news as false with the application still under review by the SEC. Cointelegraph have since posted an apology n their X page while promising to provide an update shortly on the manner and reason for the fake news being disseminated. Gauging the market reaction to the news and we can see the impact and volatility brought about by the supposed news. One can only imagine the impact should the SEC actually approve the BlackRock ETF and many other currently under review. This has been discussed in depth my Q4 Bitcoin Forecast. I had been expecting a potential approval to a be significant step for Bitcoin and crypto markets as a whole. Looking at Bitcoin though I believe it opens up the worlds’ largest cryptocurrency to a significant influx on institutional funds in an ever-changing financial landscape. Source: FinancialJuice The Crypto Fear and Greed index remains I neutral territory for now, but I would expect a change here as well should a spot ETF be approved. The mood in crypto has become rather somber in the second half of 2023 and a catalyst such as this may be just what the doctor ordered. BINANCE STOPS ACCEPTING NEW UK CLIENTS AND OTHER CRYPTO NEWS As all eyes are focused on the FTX trial currently underway, Cryptocurrency Platform Binance announced that it will stop accepting new users from the UK. This is expected to come into effect on Monday October 16 at 5PM UK Time. The move comes about as Binances local partner in the UK was restricted from approving crypto Ads, a move announced by the FCA last week. The new crypto marketing rules came into effect in the UK on October 8 with firms registered with the FCA allowed to approve their own Ads or have authorized entities approve it for them. The move by Binance does appear to be a temporary one as the company confirmed that it is ”working closely with the FCA to ensure that our users are not harmed by these developments and are looking to find another suitable FCA authorized firm to approve our financial promotions as soon as possible.” The US SEC also missed its deadline to appeal the Grayscale application to convert its Bitcoin Trust Fund into an exchange-traded fund (ETF). This after a court decided the refusal by the SEC was unlawful and urged the Regulator to reconsider. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK AND FINAL THOUGHTS From a technical standpoint BTCUSD is following the perfect breakout, retest and continuation model following a trendline break. Last week saw a death cross formation which at least had some follow through before Bitcoin found support at the 50-day MA resting around the $26500 handle. A daily candle close above the 100 and 200-day MA could help spur on further upside but a break of the $30000 mark is likely to require a catalyst. Rangebound price action may persist over the coming days as market participants await the SEC decision which could be the catalyst needed to push Bitcoin sustainably above the $30000 handle. BTCUSD Daily Chart, October 16, 2023. Source: TradingView, chart prepared by Zain Vawda https://www.dailyfx.com/news/bitcoin-spikes-to-a-high-of-29900-on-false-etf-approval-news-20231016.html

2023-10-17 02:54

USD/CAD, WTI OIL PRICE, CHARTS AND ANALYSIS: The Loonie Faces a Key Moment Tomorrow as Inflation Data is Due Ahead of the BoC Meeting Next Week. WTI Slides as US-Venezuela Deal Grows Closer. Middle East Tensions Simmer with Developpements Around Iranian Involvement to be Monitored. Retail Traders are Currently Short on USDCAD as 61% of Traders Hold Short Positions. To Learn More About Price Action,Chart PatternsandMoving Averages, Check out theDailyFX Education Series. USDCAD continued its slide started on Friday pushing further away from the 1.3700 mark. Surprisingly this has come about as Oil prices have struggled as well following a 5% gain on Friday to close the week on a high. RISKS FACING USD/CAD IN THE WEEK AHEAD The Bank of Canada (BoC) like many Central Banks globally is keeping a close watch on Geopolitical developments which could have a knock-on effect on inflation. This comes not long after warnings from BoC Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent who warned that supply shocks, limited competition and technology could have shifted the pricing landscape permanently. Deputy Governor Vincent also said he could envision firms continue to increase prices at larger and more rapid rates which is a worry moving forward. Canadian Inflation data is due tomorrow and will provide some insight with consensus for YoY Headline inflation resting at 4%. The Bank of Canada (BoC) will no doubt be looking for a print of 4% or lower given the increases the headline figure has seen since printing its YTD low at 2.8% in June. An acceleration tomorrow could see the rate hike expectations for the BoC hawkishly repriced which could USDCAD back toward the 1.3500 psychological level. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the DailyFX Calendar The US is seeing a slight slowdown in high impact risk events this week with the biggest one likely to be Retail Sales data due for release tomorrow as well. This could be a massive day for USDCAD this week before cooling ahead of the BoC rate decision next week. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USDCAD USDCAD failed to print a new high at the back end of last week after finding support at the 20-day MA. We have since seen a pullback as the US dollar took a breath to start the week with Canadian inflation and US retail sales ahead. The overall trend does however remain bullish with a daily candle close below the 1.3570 swing low from last week needed for a change in trend to occur. That in theory could bring the ascending trendline into play which then could provide some impetus for the bulls to return and eye a fresh high or a new upside leg. Alternatively, a break of the trendline to the downside opens up a push lower toward support at 1.3370 before the 1.3250 level comes into focus. USD/CAD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Zain Vawda https://www.dailyfx.com/news/usd-cad-slides-as-oil-surprisingly-follows-suit-on-potential-us-venezuela-oil-deal-20231016.html

2023-10-17 02:52

AUD/USD OUTLOOK: AUD/USD rebounds following last week’s sell-off The rally in U.S. equities boosts appetite for riskier currencies Despite today's moves in FX markets, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East create a challenging backdrop for the Australian dollar After a steep sell-off late last week, the Aussie rebounded against the U.S. dollar, boosted by optimistic sentiment, with the upswing in Wall Street's equity markets providing support to more risk-oriented currencies. Against this backdrop, AUD/USD advanced nearly 0.8% to 0.6343, coming within striking distance from overtaking overhead resistance in the 0.6350 area. Despite today’s movements, the Australian dollar maintains a bearish bias, particularly when examined from a technical perspective. The sequence of lower highs and lower lows coupled with the pair’s position below critical moving averages and a key descending trendline that has guided the market lower since July, all contribute to reaffirming the earlier assessment of a negative outlook. From a fundamental standpoint, the geopolitical climate in the Middle East stands out as a potential weak point for the Australian dollar. While there was no substantial escalation in the Israel-Hamas war over the weekend, the situation could change soon, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expected to greenlight a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip in the upcoming days. Any development that raises the geopolitical temperature in the Middle East is likely to exert downward pressure on high-beta currencies in the near term. This could lead to renewed losses for AUD/USD. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, known for its safe-haven appeal during periods of elevated uncertainty and increased volatility could command leadership in the FX space. Focusing on technical analysis, AUD/USD rebounded from support around the 0.6300 handle on Monday, but failed to clear a key ceiling at 0.6350. It is imperative that traders keep a watchful eye on this area in the coming days, bearing in mind that a breakout could open the door to a move toward trendline resistance at 0.6425. On further strength, attention shifts to 0.6460, followed by 0.6510. On the other hand, if sellers stage a comeback and incite a pullback from the pair's current position, the first defensive line against bearish forces can be found within the 0.6300/0.6285 range. AUD/USD may encounter support in this region during a market reversal, but in the case of a breakdown, the bearish pressure could pick up pace, setting the stage for a possible retest of last year’s lows 0.6170. AUD/USD TECHNICAL CHART AUD/USD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-australian-dollar-forecast-aud-usd-rallies-off-support-but-trend-remains-bearish-20231016.html

2023-10-17 02:51

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR, NZD/USD, CPI – MARKET UPDATE: New Zealand Dollar weakens after local inflation data Softer CPI report opens the door to less hawkish RBNZ Still, NZD/USD faces a neutral technical environment The New Zealand Dollar cautiously weakened in the aftermath of local inflation data. During the third quarter, New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew by 5.6% compared to a year ago. This was slower than the 5.9% anticipated outcome. Meanwhile, compared to the previous quarter, local headline inflation expanded by 1.8%. That was slightly lower than the 1.9% expected result. The data resulted in a softer-than-expected inflation report, which has key implications for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The RBNZ sets monetary policy by adjusting interest rates to help influence the pace of inflation and economic growth. The CPI data could mean that the central bank approaches policy with slightly more caution than previously expected. As a result, the data has cooled expectations of further tightening, perhaps also opening the door to a shorter period for restrictive rates. This in turn might cool demand for the New Zealand Dollar, hence NZD/USD’s drop after the CPI report. With that in mind, the Kiwi Dollar might be left vulnerable in the near term, let us look at how price action is shaping up. New Zealand Dollar Technical Analysis On the daily chart below, NZD/USD can be seen idling just above the 0.5859 – 0.5886 support zone. This range has been holding up since August, resulting in indecisive price action. Meanwhile, resistance is a combination of 0.6055 and the 100-day moving average. Until prices break above/below these highlights, the technical outlook seems to favor neutral. Breaking lower exposes the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.5732. Otherwise, turning higher and clearing resistance exposes the 38.2% level of 0.6146. NZD/USD Daily Chart Chart Created in TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-falls-after-inflation-data-but-nzd-usd-remains-above-key-support-20231016.html