2023-10-17 02:50

Euro, EUR/USD, US Dollar, EUR/JPY, Japanese Yen, EUR/GBP, British Pound, Trend, Range - Talking Points Euro appears to be struggling against the US Dollar with a trend unfolding EUR/JPY has steadied after a downside breakout move was rejected EUR/GBP continues to bounce around in the range for now. Will EUR/GBP break out? EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD tried to break the topside of a descending trend channel last week but was unsuccessful and the channel remains in play for now. That move posted a peak of 1.0640 but the daily close was below the descending trend line, potentially reaffirming that the trendline is intact. A break above the trend line may see nearby resistance at the breakpoints and previous highs near 1.0620, 1.0640 and 1.0675. Further up, resistance might be offered at a prior peak at 1.0737, which currently coincides with the 55-day simple moving average (SMA). Above there, another prior high and breakpoint near 1.0770 could offer resistance. A bearish triple moving average (TMA) formation requires the price to be below the short-term SMA, the latter to be below the medium-term SMA and the medium-term SMA to be below the long-term SMA. All SMAs also need to have a negative gradient. When looking at any combination of the 21-, 34-, 55- and 100-day SMAs, the criteria for a TMA have been met and might suggest that bearish momentum is evolving. On the downside, support might lie near the breakpoints and lows of early 2023 that were tested at the start of this month with 1.0480 and 1.0440 as potential levels of note. EUR/USD DAILY CHART Chart Created in TradingView EUR/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/JPY appears to have settled back into its recent range after rejecting the move lower a fortnight ago when it traded down to a three-month low of 154.39. That dip broke below the September low and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before closing back above both of them in the proceeding sessions. This may provide opportunities for A range trading strategy. To learn more about range trading, click on the banner below. On the downside, support could be at the breakpoint and a recent low toward 156.50. On a sustained move lower, the levels to watch might be at the previous lows and breakpoints of 154.39, 153.45, 151.60, 151.40 and 151.07. On the top side, the recent highs and breakpoint near 158.65, 159.50 and 159.75 may offer resistance. EUR/JPY DAILY CHART Chart Created in TradingView EUR/GBP TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/GBP has been trading between 0.8493 and 0.8706 for 5 months in what appears to be a range trading environment. The 10-, 21-, 34-, 55- and 100-day SMAs are all grouped together between 0.8596 and 0.8653 potentially re-affirming the range trade environment for the time being. However, if either side of the range is penetrated, a breakout trade opportunity may evolve. To learn more about breakout trading, click on the banner below. Support might be at the breakpoints and recent lows of 0.8610, 0.8570, 0.8559, 0.8524, 0.8504 and 0.8493. On the upside, resistance could be at the prior peaks of 0.8691, 0.8706 and 0.8735. EUR/GBP DAILY CHART Chart Created in TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/analysis/euro-technical-outlook-trend-and-ranges-for-eur-usd-eur-jpy-and-eur-gbp-20231017.html

2023-10-17 02:48

GOLD, XAU/USD, SILVER, XAG/USD – OUTLOOK: Precious metals have soared on geopolitical concerns. Both gold and silver are testing major resistance. What is the outlook and what are the key levels to watch in XAU/USD and XAG/USD? Is the worst over for gold and silver? Probably not. Potential safe-haven bids and short-covering on escalating tensions in the Middle East have boosted gold this month. Dovish comments by US Federal Reserve officials suggesting that the US central bank has pivoted on rates is also supporting the yellow metal. In this regard, the key focus is on Fed Chair Powell’s speech later this week. The market is pricing in around a 90% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting. While heightened geopolitical uncertainty could keep precious metals well bid, unless the broader trajectory of US Treasury yields/real yields reverse, the path of least resistance for gold remains sideways to down. Geopolitics is one of the risks that could slow or reverse the slide in the yellow metal, as highlighted in the quarterly outlook. “Gold Q4 Fundamental Forecast: Weakness to Persist as Real Yields Rise Further,” published October 6, and “Gold/Silver Q4 Technical Forecast: Tide Remains Against XAU/USD & XAG/USD,” published October 1. XAU/USD Daily Chart Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView Gold: Rally hits a roadblock On technical charts, gold has run into significant converged resistance at the September high of 1953, the 89-day moving average, the 200-day moving average, and the upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily charts. Despite the rebound, the 14-Relative Strength Index (RSI) was unable to clear 60-65, suggesting that the rally in recent sessions isn’t the start of a new trend. XAU/USD Weekly Chart Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView That’s because the rebound since early October looks similar to the one in mid-2022. Deeply oversold conditions (RSI below 20) triggered a rebound toward the 89-day moving average and the cloud. Gold subsequently made a new low a few months later. Any break below Monday’s low of 1905 would indicate that the upward pressure since last week had faded. On the upside, as mentioned in the quarterly outlook, XAU/USD needs to rise abovethe July high of 1987 for the immediate downside risks to dissipate. Furthermore, a crack above the May high of 2072 is needed for the outlook to turn bullish. XAG/USD Daily Chart Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView Silver: Yet to break significant resistance Silver’s rebound has run into stiff resistance on an uptrend line from late 2022, slightly above the support-turned-resistance at the August low of 22.20. Above this, there is a major converged hurdle on the 200-day moving average, the late-September high of 23.75, and the upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily charts. XAG/USD needs to cross the 23.25-23.75 area for the immediate downward pressure to fade. Any fall below Monday’s low of 22.50 could open the door toward Thursday’s low of 21.75. Next support is at the early-October low of 20.50, followed by stronger support at the March low of 19.85. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/is-the-worst-over-for-gold-silver-xau-usd-xag-usd-price-setups-20231017.html

2023-10-13 04:20

Bitcoin (BTC) Prices, Charts, and Analysis: Have global interest rates peaked? Bitcoin is unable to break the 200-day simple moving average. Bitcoin is trapped in a wide $25k - $32k range and is finding it difficult to make a concerted attempt at either support or resistance. The backdrop for the cryptocurrency market should be mildly positive with a raft of spot BTC and ETH ETFs expected shortly, while global interest rates are seen at, or very close to, their peaks. The latest raft of Fed speak has been dovish with a spread of FOMC members suggesting that with further tightening expected from previous rate hikes, inflation will continue to fall, easing the pressure on the US central bank to tighten monetary policy further. Traditional risk markets have pushed ahead in the past week, while the VIX – the ‘fear barometer’ - is currently printing its sixth red candle in a row. VIX Daily Price Chart The latest US inflation report will be released later in today’s session and any deviation from expectations – core y/y @4.1% and headline y/y @3.6% - may add a dose of volatility into the market. A look at the daily chart shows the spot BTC price is struggling to break the 200-day simple moving average. BTC is now pressing down on the 50-dsma that lines up with a prior level of note around the $26.5k area. Below here there is a cluster of old highs and lows down to $25k. These should stem any further sell-off. For Bitcoin to rally back to $32k resistance, the 200-dsma at $28k needs to be broken convincingly. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Price Chart – October 12, 2023 Charts by TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/bitcoin-btc-price-latest-btc-usd-chart-mixed-as-200-day-sma-stands-firm-20231012.html

2023-10-13 04:19

Core Inflation Rate YoY (SEP) 4.1% Vs 4.1% Forecast. Inflation Rate YoY (SEP) 3.7% Vs 3.6% Forecast. Inflation Rate MoM 0.4% and Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.3%. To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. US headline inflation YoY in September held steady at 3.7% in line with estimates while Core CPI YoY hit a 24-month low and dropped from the 4.3% print recorded last month. The Core inflation print is the lowest since September 2021. The MoM CPI print came in above estimates but also fell from the previous print of 0.6%. Customize and filter live economic data via our DailyFX economic calendar The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over half of the increase. An increase in the gasoline index was also a major contributor to all items monthly rise. While the major energy component indexes were mixed in September, the energy index rose 1.5 percent over the month. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics DOVISH FED RHETORIC AND THE OUTLOOK MOVING FORWARD The US Dollar has come under selling pressure this week on the back of dovish comments from Federal Reserve Officials. PPI data did tick higher yesterday but drilling deeper into the numbers and the increase was not as bad as the print suggested. It is also important to note that PPI does not always have a direct impact on CPI figure and tends to have a lag as well. Fed Policymaker Rafael Bostic also mentioned yesterday that stalling inflation could be a sign that the Fed need to do more, which makes todays data release all the more intriguing. The rally in risk assets and particularly US equities hint that market participants believe the Fed is most likely done on the rate hike front. This despite an uptick in the two preceding headline inflation prints after the yearly low of 3% achieved in June. Looking ahead and another uptick in inflation could add some short-term volatility and outlook but is unlikely to have an impact over the medium and longer term as more data will be needed. The data release does justify the Fed rhetoric of higher for longer but does not change the picture for the Fed just yet in terms of tightening further. Demand, labor market dynamics and household savings are likely to determine whether another hike may be needed over the coming weeks. Regarding household savings, Fed Policymaker Collins stated that as household savings continue to dwindle the economy should become more responsive to policy, something we have touched on over the past 6 weeks or so I various articles and videos. MARKET REACTION GBPUSD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Zain Vawda The initial reaction saw GBPUSD Dip about 40 pips and back below the 1.2300 mark as the DXY advanced looking to snap a 6-day losing streak. At present support is being provided by the 20-day MA with a break lower likely to see a return to the 1.2200 mark (pink box on the chart). Should the DXY fail to hold onto gains in the US session we could be in for a retest of the 1.2300 mark and key resistance around the 1.23700 may come into focus. IG CLIENT SENTIMENT Taking a quick look at the IG Client Sentiment Data which shows retail traders are 68% net-long on GBPUSD. Given the contrarian view adopted here at DailyFX, is GBPUSD destined to fall back toward the recent lows in the mid 1.20's? https://www.dailyfx.com/news/mixed-us-cpi-data-as-core-inflation-falls-to-2-year-lows-dxy-rises-and-gbp-usd-slides-20231012.html

2023-10-13 04:18

EURO (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP) ANALYSIS Minutes suggest the ECB is content with rates, focused on the economy US CPI threatens recent EUR/USD pullback The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library MINUTES SUGGEST THE ECB IS CONTENT WITH RATES, FOCUSED ON THE ECONOMY ECB minutes revealed it was a close call to raise interest rates for the tenth and possibly last time, the last time the Governing Council met. The majority of officials anticipate that record high interest rates (4%) will play a huge role in forcing inflation back to the 2% target. Now the focus turns to the European economy which has had to endure the effects of elevated prices during a global growth slowdown that has heavily impacted its major trading partner, China. The German manufacturing sector has been particularly hard hit, leading the rest of Europe lower. No doubt the ECB will be watching government bond yields after higher US borrowing costs led the way for other developed markets. Italian bond yields will be top of the list as they have traditionally been vulnerable to expanding yields due to the large budget deficit, elevated debt and lack if fiscal discipline. ECB officials remain hopeful to avoid a recession this year. With anemic growth witnessed thus far in Europe, a soft landing remains a massive challenge. However, US CPI data provided the largest catalyst of the day, prompting a rise in the weaker USD as headline inflation rose slightly above forecast, coming in at 3.7% vs 3.6% forecasted. Rising oil prices pose a potential challenge to recent progress on inflation. The immediate reaction in EUR/USD saw a move to the downside, as the surprise to the upside reignited concerns around sticky inflation after numerous Fed officials communicated a cautious approach to future tightening with many stating a satisfaction with the current level of interest rates. EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow US CPI THREATENS RECENT EUR/USD PULLBACK The higher inflation print sees EUR/USD resume the longer-term downtrend after turning around 1.0635 – the 31st of May swing low. 1.0520 is the next level of support which may coincide with trendline support. EUR/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow The EUR/GBP pair resumes the shorter-term move lower as the daily chart reflects higher upper wicks on the daily chart – a rejection of higher prices. Prices now approach the underside of the descending channel after crossing below 0.8635 – a prior key level of resistance. Momentum, according to the MACD, favours further downside with the RSI nowhere near oversold conditions. Resistance appears at 0.8635. EUR/GBP Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/hotter-us-inflation-reignites-eur-usd-downtrend-eur-gbp-eases-20231012.html

2023-10-13 04:16

GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK Gold prices turn lower following hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI data Sticky inflationary pressures boost Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, creating a challenging environment for precious metals This article looks at XAU/USD’s key technical levels worth keeping an eye on over the coming trading sessions Gold prices (XAU/USD), which hit multi-month lows last week, embarked on a modest recovery in recent days. Earlier on Thursday, bullion rose to its highest point since September 27 ($1,885). However, this upward momentum was abruptly halted by the release of U.S. inflation data, which exceeded forecasts. For context, September's headline CPI increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, surpassing estimates by a tenth of a percent in both cases. Sticky inflationary pressures have reignited bullish momentum for U.S. yields, following a brief period of softness, paving the way for a strong rally in the broader U.S. dollar. Today’s events also led traders to reprice the Fed’s terminal rate higher, raising the odds of a quarter-point hike at the December FOMC meeting to 36% from 26% a day ago. Naturally, both gold and silver reacted adversely to these developments, erasing earlier gains and slipping into negative territory. Although prevailing market conditions will be challenging for precious metals, a glimmer of hope is beginning to emerge on the horizon. For instance, recent Fedspeak advocating patience and indicating that the U.S. central bank will proceed carefully suggest that policymakers are on the verge of ending their hiking campaign. With the tightening cycle winding down, both nominal and real rates will have limited upside going forward, creating a more favorable backdrop for non-yielding assets. In summary, the fundamental outlook for gold and silver appears bearish in the short term. However, the tide may turn in their favor in the coming months, especially for the yellow metal. This could mean a strong advance for XAU/USD in the latter part of the year and heading into 2024. The chance of a more significant rally could increase should unforeseen macroeconomic hurdles appear, leading the Federal Reserve to pivot to a more dovish posture for fear of a hard landing. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold made a move toward a technical resistance zone around $1,885 earlier on Thursday, only to face a swift rejection, signaling the enduring grip of sellers on the market. That said, traders should stay attentive to how price action unfolds in the upcoming days for indications of sustained weakness, as this scenario could take XAU/USD towards $1,860. While gold could find support in this area on a pullback, a breakdown could open the door to a retest of the 2023 lows. Conversely, if buyers return and spark a strong rebound, initial resistance stretches from $1,885 to $1,890. The bears are likely to defend this ceiling tooth and nail, but in the event of an upside breakout, we could see a move towards $1,905, the 38.2% Fibonacci of the May/October decline. On further strength, the bulls could be emboldened and initiate an assault on channel resistance located in the vicinity of $1,925 at the time of writing. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-price-forecast-bearish-winds-prevail-but-turnaround-nears-xau-usd-levels-20231012.html