2023-10-11 03:40

AUD/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK AUD/USD rises for the fourth straight day, pressing against trendline resistance. Despite its recent recovery, the Aussie maintains a bearish profile. This article looks at AUD/USD’s key technical levels worth watching in the coming trading sessions Market sentiment has improved in recent days, allowing AUD/USD to make a moderate turnaround from the middle of last week, when it briefly hit its lowest level since November last year. The Aussie's recovery phase has coincided with the pullback in the broader U.S. dollar, which has been correcting lower for the past four trading sessions, as shown in the daily chart below. Despite the rebound, AUD/USD maintains a negative profile in the near term, with the exchange rate significantly below important moving averages and situated beneath a short-term descending trendline that has been guiding the market lower since July. However, the tide could turn in the pair’s favor if the bulls manage to take out overhead resistance, stretching from 0.6440 to 0.6460. In the event that prices breach the 0.6440/0.6460 ceiling decisively, buying momentum could gather pace, setting the stage for a rally towards 0.6510. With continued strength, the bullish camp might gain the confidence to mount an assault on the psychological 0.6600 handle. Beyond that threshold, the focus transitions to the 200-day simple moving average. On the flip side, should sellers reemerge and initiate a bearish reversal from current levels, the first relevant support area rests around 0.6350. AUD/USD may find stability around this floor during a pullback before bouncing back, but in the case of a breakdown, downward pressure could intensify, laying the groundwork for a descent towards the 2023 lows a touch below 0.6300. AUD/USD TECHNICAL CHART AUD/USD Chart Prepared Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-australian-dollar-forecast-aud-usd-takes-on-trendline-resistance-what-s-next-20231010.html

2023-10-11 03:39

GOLD, RETAIL TRADER POSITIONING, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – IGCS UPDATE Gold prices aiming for best week since mid-July Yet, outlook remains bearish based on retail bets At +1.5%, gold prices are so far on course for the best week since the middle of July. Yet, despite recent gains, retail traders have not been increasing their downside exposure as one would usually expect. This can be seen by looking at IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), which usually functions as a contrarian indicator. In fact, as we are about to see, the outlook is seemingly not looking rosy. Gold Sentiment Outlook - Bearish The IGCS gauge shows that about 86% of retail traders are net-long gold. Since the vast majority are biased to the upside, this continues to hint that prices may fall down the road. Despite recent gains, upside exposure has increased by almost 8% compared to a week ago. This is as downside bets increased by 5.45% over the same period. The combination of overall positioning and recent changes continues to produce a bearish contrarian trading bias outlook. XAU/USD Daily Chart On the daily chart, gold has pushed back above the midpoint of the Fibonacci retracement level of 1848.37. Further upside confirmation has been lackluster. Further to the point, a bearish Death Cross emerged between the 200- and 50-day moving averages not long ago after prices broke under key rising support from February. As such, the overall technical posture remains bearish biased for the yellow metal. Further upside progress is needed to overturn this outlook. Immediate resistance seems to be the 1884.89 inflection point, followed by the 50-day moving average. In the event of a turn lower, keep a close eye on the February low of 1804.78. Chart Created in Trading View https://www.dailyfx.com/analysis/gold-price-update-xau-usd-remains-vulnerable-to-retail-trader-positioning-bets-20231010.html

2023-10-11 03:37

Euro, EUR/USD, US Dollar, EUR/JPY, Japanese Yen, EUR/CHF, Swiss Franc, Trend, Range - Talking Points Euro bulls have been cheering against the US Dollar this week after a rally A plunge in EUR/JPY last week proved to be unsustainable with a solid bounce EUR/CHF looks to be in the range for now. Will EUR/CHF break out? EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD jumped higher again overnight as it continues to rally off the eleven-month low seen last week at 1.0448. The peak seen overnight was unable to overcome a breakpoint and prior high near 1.0520 and it may continue to offer resistance ahead of a descending trend line. Further up, resistance could be at another prior peak at 1.0673 which coincides with the 34-day simple moving average (SMA). Similarly, resistance might be near 1.0770 where there is a recent high and the 55-day SMA. Above those levels, the 100- and 200-day SMAs may offer resistance near the breakpoint at 1.0830. Despite the recent run-up, EUR/USD remains in a descending trend channel and with the price below these medium and longer-term SMAs, overall bearish momentum could be intact until these SMAs have been vanquished. On the downside, support might lie near the breakpoints and lows of early 2023 that were tested recently with 1.0480 and 1.0440 as potential levels of note. EUR/USD DAILY CHART Chart Created in TradingView EUR/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/JPY appears to have rejected the move lower of last week when it traded down to a three-month low of 154.39. That dip broke below the September low and the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before closing back above all of them in the proceeding sessions. The sell-off also broke below the lower band of the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) based Bollinger Band. After closing back inside the band, a run higher ensued and the price has since consolidated back within the range. A feature of Bollinger Bands is to easily identify the level of volatility in the market by the width of the bands. The current relative narrowness of the bands and the rejection of the move lower might suggest that there is a lack of directional conviction for EUR/JPY for now. This may provide opportunities for range trading strategies. To learn more about range trading, click on the banner below. Support could be at the breakpoint and a recent low toward 156.50. On a sustained move lower, the levels to watch might be at the previous lows and breakpoints of 154.39, 153.45, 151.60, 151.40 and 151.07. On the top side, the recent highs of 158.65 and 159.76 may offer resistance. EUR/JPY DAILY CHART Chart Created in TradingView EUR/CHF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/CHF has been contained and trading between 0.9500 and 0.9700 for 3 months in what appears to be a range trading environment. This seems to be a characteristic of EUR/CHF from time to time. The 10-, 21-, 34-, 55- and 100-day SMAs are all grouped together within this range, which may confirm a lack of direction for EUR/CHF, not too dissimilar to EUR/JPY above. If either side of that range is penetrated, a breakout trade opportunity may evolve. To learn more about breakout trading, click on the banner below. Support might be at an ascending trendline, currently near 0.9535 ahead of the previous lows at 0.9516 and 0.9408. On the upside, resistance could be at the 100-day SMA which is currently near 0.9650, ahead of the prior peak and breakpoints at 0.9694, 0.9706 and 0.9723. EUR/CHF DAILY CHART Chart Created in TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/analysis/euro-technical-outlook-trend-versus-ranges-for-eur-usd-eur-jpy-and-eur-chf-20231011.html

2023-10-11 03:36

US DOLLAR, DXY, CPI PREVIEW – MARKET UPDATE: US Dollar on course for another weekly pullback so far All eyes on CPI data Thursday, will core inflation slow? DXY shows early signs of a brewing broader reversal The US Dollar (DXY Dollar Index) is heading for a loss this week so far ahead of the highly-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. If losses are sustained, the -0.3% drop could be the worst 5-day performance since the middle of July. Meanwhile, things are looking increasingly bearish on the daily chart. Let us take a look at how the currency is shaping up ahead of the inflation report. On Thursday, US headline inflation is seen weakening to 3.6% y/y in September from 3.7% y/y in August. This is known as disinflation. Disinflation is a period where prices are still rising but at a slower pace compared to prior. This should not be confused with deflation (falling prices). Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs (underlying inflation), is seen dropping to 4.1% y/y from 4.3% prior. The Federal Reserve is probably more interested in the latter. It should be noted that from my fourth-quarter outlook, the lag effect of slowing rental property prices will likely continue making its way into core CPI. As such, this might continue pressuring core inflation lower in the coming months, which is what I am expecting from this report on Thursday. Such an outcome would likely support recent cautious commentary coming from the Federal Reserve, which has been adding slight downward pressure to Treasury yields. In turn, that has been pushing the US Dollar lower, particularly as stock markets rise again. This results in less demand for safety, which works against the haven-linked currency. US Dollar Technical Analysis Taking a look at the DXY daily chart below, we can see that the currency broke under a key rising trendline from July. While confirmation is lacking, this could be an early indication of an impending reversal. This also follows negative RSI divergence, showing that upside momentum was fading leading into the turn lower. From here, key support is the 104.69 inflection point below. DXY Daily Chart Chart Created in TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-dollar-faces-reversal-risk-ahead-of-inflation-report-as-dxy-breaks-key-trendline-20231011.html

2023-10-11 03:34

US DOLLAR, AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, BRITISH POUND VS. JAPANESE YEN – PRICE ACTION: USD/JPY continues to hover below the psychological 150 mark. GBP/JPY is attempting to rise further; AUD/JPY is holding above key support. What is the outlook and what are the key levels to watch in select JPY crosses? Dovish comments from US Federal Reserve officials coupled with the violence in Israel and Gaza have put a lid on US Treasury yields, boosting the Japanese yen. Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson on Monday suggested that the sharp rise in yields has tightened financial conditions, lessening the need for further interest rate hikes. Markets are now pricing in around a 10% chance of a 25 basis points hike by the Fed when it meets next month, down from around a 28% chance a week ago. Moreover, the yen appears to have attracted some safe-haven bids on account of a flare up in geopolitical tensions. The pause in the yen’s slide against the US dollar is a welcome sign as it hovers in the range that invited intervention by Japanese authorities last year. The yen has been under pressure as BOJ’s persistent ultra-easymonetary policydiverges from its peers where central banks remain hawkish. USD/JPY 240-Minute Chart Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView Having said that, unless global central banks take a step back from the hawkishness and/or BOJ steps up its hawkishness, the path of least resistance for the yen remains sideways to down. For more details, see “Japanese Yen Tumbles as BOJ Maintains Status Quo: USD/JPY Eyes 150,” published September 22. USD/JPY Daily Chart Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView USD/JPY: 147.35 is key support USD/JPY continues to hold under stiff resistance at the psychological 150 mark, not too far from the 2022 high of 152.00. A potential lower high created last week raises the risk of a test of the 200-period moving average, around the early-October low of 147.35. This support is strong and may not break in the first attempt at least. Given the buoyant upward momentum on the daily chart, the pair could continue to hover in the 147.00-150.00 range in the interim. However, any break below 147.35 would confirm that the broader upward pressure was easing. GBP/JPY Daily Chart Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView GBP/JPY: Bullish move ahead? GBP/JPY is now testing key resistance at last week’s high of 183.00. Any break above could clear the path up to the August high of 186.75. Importantly, the cross’ hold above strong converged support on the 89-day moving average confirms that the broader trend remains up and the recent sideways price action is a pause, rather than a reversal of the uptrend. AUD/JPY Weekly Chart Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView AUD/JPY: Range likely AUD/JPY continues to hold above quite strong converged support at the 89-day moving average, the February high, and the lower edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily charts, ashighlighted in the previous update. However, unless the cross clears the June high of 97.70 the path of least remains sideways at best. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/japanese-yen-aided-by-fed-pause-view-geopolitics-usd-jpy-gbp-jpy-aud-jpy-20231011.html

2023-10-10 03:56

EUR/GBP: Retail trader data shows 51.31% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.05 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Sep 29 when EUR/GBP traded near 0.87, price has moved 0.25% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 12.46% higher than yesterday and 0.89% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.86% lower than yesterday and 10.45% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/GBP prices may continue to fall. Our data shows traders are now net-long EUR/GBP for the first time since Sep 29, 2023 when EUR/GBP traded near 0.87. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/GBP-bearish contrarian trading bias. https://www.dailyfx.com/analysis/EURGBP-IG-Client-Sentiment-202310091523.html