2023-09-29 03:01

BITCOIN (BTC), ETHEREUM (ETH) KEY POINTS: Bitcoin Reclaims 27k as the Road to 30k Remains Fraught with Hurdles. VanEck Joins a Growing List of Companies that Have Filed ETH Futures Applications. Is Crypto on Course to Suffer a Similar Fate to US Equities in Q4 or are we In for the Promised Rally as Bitcoin Halving Draws Closer? To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. Bitcoin has held up well over the past couple of weeks as markets in general face a host of uncertainties and risk-off sentiment. The idea of higher rates for longer has not had any material impact on Crypto, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum rising this week. The weaker US Dollar today has helped Crypto with BTCUSD rising around 3% on the day and testing a descending trendline. Crypto enthusiasts have been punting for a bullish Q4 ahead of the ‘Halving” event next year. Historically speaking over the past 3 or so years Crypto has actually struggled during Q4, which begs the question of whether we are in for a change or not? There is a general sense of fear which seems to be prevailing at present given the overall market developments of late. The idea of higher rates for longer s seen as a threat by many Crypto enthusiasts heading into Q4 as higher rates may mean that market participants opt for US Treasuries. The risk/reward profile given the current conditions bode well for US Treasuries but could weigh on Risk Assets and Cryptocurrencies. Higher interest rates could also have an impact on consumer spending and diminish discretionary income which could hurt the retail sector of the crypto industry. The chart below provides a good indication of where Crypto enthusiasts stand in terms of the Fear and Greed index at the moment. Looking at the numbers and the famous Warren Buffet quote came to mind, which goes “buy when others are fearful”. VANECK READIES ETHEREUM FUTURES ETF Asset Management Firm VanEck are preparing to roll out its Ethereum futures ETF as the race for ETH futures continues to heat up. The fund is to be called VanEck Ethereum Strategy ETF will invest in standardized, cash settled ETH futures contracts traded on commodity exchanges registered with the Commodity and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This was communicated by the firm in a statement earlier today. Now in October we are expected to hear whether a host of spot Bitcoin ETFs will be approved by the SEC which could be game changer for the industry and see a massive influx of institutional funds. There is already a few Bitcoin Futures ETFs with the VanEck Bitcoin Strategy ETF (XBTF) listed on the CBOE which is where the Ether ETF will be listed as well. In August there was a report by Bloomberg which stated that US Securities Regulators were poised to approve Ether ETFS Futures for US trading. This went quiet however, as the spot Bitcoin applications have been dominating the news since. The report also states that many firms have already filed applications for a futures ETF which means today's announcement by VanEck is nothing new or unexpected. Q4 is going to be an interesting one with regards to both the spot Bitcoin ETF and Ether futures ETF. The SEC has come under increasing scrutiny regarding a perceived agenda against the Crypto industry which means any decision it makes is likely to come under severe scrutiny. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK AND FINAL THOUGHTS From a technical standpoint BTCUSD has broken back above the 27k mark having printed a higher low this week. Is this a sign that price action has finally shifted bullish once more? Quite possibly, but I will wait for a breakout of the descending trendline which price is currently testing. A break above the descending trendline brings an interesting confluence area around the 28k mark into focus. The 28k mark has been a key area of resistance for some time but now has the 100 and 200-day MAs to provide another layer of resistance. BTCUSD has struggled to trade above the 100 and 200-day MA since breaking below in the middle of August. Is the world’s largest crypto ready to break back above and reclaim the 30k mark? BTCUSD Daily Chart, September 28, 2023. Source: TradingView, chart prepared by Zain Vawda Ethereum (ETH/USD) looks almost identical from a price action perspective having printed a higher low ahead of the upside rally today. Gains for the day sit at 3.6% (at the time of writing) with the 50-day MA providing some resistance. In order to confirm a change in structure a daily candle close above the 1647 mark is needed which could then open up a run toward the 100 and 200-day MAs which rests at 1772 and 1805. The 1805 handle should be key as that is the level where the August selloff began and could prove a tough nut to crack. ETHUSD Daily Chart, September 28, 2023. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/bitcoin-ethereum-rally-following-latest-eth-futures-etf-application-where-next-20230928.html

2023-09-29 02:57

GOLD, RETAIL TRADER POSITIONING, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – IGCS UPDATE Gold prices extend losses on rising Treasury yields Retail traders are becoming even more bullish XAU With prices extending the downtrend, what are key levels ahead? Gold prices have been sinking in recent days, succumbing to a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields. In response, retail traders have been becoming more bullish XAU/USD. This can be seen by looking at IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), which usually functions as a contrarian indicator. With that in mind, could further pain be in store for the yellow metal? Gold Sentiment Outlook - Bearish The IGCS gauge shows that a commanding majority of 82% are net-long XAU/USD. Since most of them are biased to the upside, this continues to hint that prices may fall down the road. This is as upside exposure has increased by 6.74% and 22.71% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With that in mind, the combination of overall bets and recent changes offers a stronger bearish contrarian outlook. XAU/USD Daily Chart On the daily chart below, gold has confirmed a breakout under rising support from February. That is increasingly offering a stronger bearish technical bias. Now, immediate support is the midpoint of the Fibonacci retracement around 1848. Prices may bounce here, opening the door to revisiting the August swing low around 1884.89. Otherwise, clearing lower exposes the February low of 1804.78, opening the door to continuing the top in prices since earlier this year. Chart Created in Trading View https://www.dailyfx.com/analysis/gold-prices-sink-as-us-dollar-gains-retail-traders-becoming-even-more-bullish-xau-usd-20230928.html

2023-09-29 02:55

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, AUD/USD, AUD/JPY – NEAR-TERM TECHNICAL UPDATE: Australian Dollar soared over the past 24 hours AUD/USD Bullish Engulfing is now in the focus AUD/JPY Symmetrical Triangle breakout continues AUD/USD - Daily Chart Recent performance in the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar and Japanese Yen is setting up an interesting technical landscape. On the daily chart below, AUD/USD surged on Thursday, leaving behind a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. This can at times function as a reversal signal, but further confirmation from here is likely needed. The pattern emerged as prices were unable to confirm a breakout under the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6382. On top of this, positive RSI divergence had been persisting, showing that downside momentum has been fading. As such, while early, there seems to be early indications of a reversal. But, confirmation is needed. Keep a close eye on the 50-day Moving Average. The latter may hold as resistance, pivoting prices lower. Otherwise, breaking lower opens the door to facing the November low of 0.6272. Chart Created in TradingView AUD/JPY - Daily Chart Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar is also pushing higher against the Japanese Yen. Not long ago, AUD/JPY confirmed a breakout above a Symmetrical Triangle chart formation. That opened the door to extending the dominant uptrend since earlier this year. Now, prices are facing the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 95.97 as immediate resistance. Negative RSI divergence is present though, showing that upside momentum is fading. That can precede a turn lower. Such an outcome would place the focus on immediate support, which seems to be the 23.6% level at 94.93. Otherwise, continuing higher places the focus on revisiting the current 2023 peak of 97.67. Chart Created in TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/analysis/australian-dollar-update-aud-usd-aud-jpy-soar-but-is-there-enough-momentum-to-sustain-20230929.html

2023-09-29 02:54

Market Recap A slight breather in the Treasury yields rally allowed Wall Street to turn in a positive session overnight, while VIX retraced for the second straight day after nearing its key psychological 20 level, which are generally looked upon as the divide between stable or more stressful periods. The rate-sensitive Nasdaq 100 index found room for greater relief (+0.8%) and if it manages to close at or above the current level today, that could help form a weekly bullish pin bar to kickstart next week. Overnight, the final read for US 2Q gross domestic product (GDP) offered mixed views. A significant downward revision in consumer spending (0.8% vs previous 1.7%) may question how far the current economic resilience may last, but at least for now, the weakness was masked by an upward revision to business fixed investment (7.4% vs previous 6.1%). Overall, that supported a still-resilient 2Q growth expansion of 2.1%, in line with expectations. Ahead, the US PCE price index data will be on watch, which is expected to display stronger growth in headline inflation (3.5% vs previous 3.3%), but further moderation in the core aspect (3.9% vs previous 4.2%). If it turns out as expected, this may mark a new low in core PCE inflation since October 2021 and provides some validation for current rate expectations that the Fed may not follow through with its last rate hike in November/December. One to watch may be the SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF, which managed to defend the neckline of a head-and-shoulder formation on the daily chart, while its daily Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is attempting for a bullish crossover. A series of resistance still lies ahead for the sector to overcome, with the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) still trading below the 50 level as an indication of sellers in control. On the upside, immediate resistance may stand at the 200.00 level, while any failure to defend the neckline may pave the way to retest the 174.00 level next. Source: IG charts Asia Open Asian stocks look set for a slight positive open, with Nikkei +0.02%, ASX +0.28% and NZX +0.45% at the time of writing. Given that several markets are closed for holiday today (China and Taiwan closed for Mid-Autumn Festival, South Korea closed for Chuseok), overall sentiments could be more subdued, despite lower bond yields and a weaker US dollar providing room for some near-term relief. Economic data this morning saw a lower-than-expected core consumer price index (CPI) read in Tokyo (2.5% vs 2.6% forecast), which is generally looked upon as a precursor to the nationwide inflation number. Tokyo’s headline inflation has also turned in softer at 2.8% from previous 2.9%, registering its lowest level since September 2022. The still-declining growth trend in core inflation may not provide the conviction for the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ‘sustainable 2% inflation’ condition for a policy pivot just yet, although rate expectations remain firm that the central bank may be forced to abandon its negative interest rate policy in 1Q 2024. The USD/JPY continues to trade within an upward channel pattern for now, supported by widening US-Japan bond yield differentials in light of the ongoing policy divergence between both central banks. But as the pair nears the key psychological 150.00 level, which marked the Japanese authorities’ intervention efforts back in October 2022, market watchers has grown more wary that they may pull the trigger once more, with the heavy net-short positioning in Japanese yen speculative bets potentially accelerating any move to the downside for the USD/JPY. The 150.00 level remains a key resistance to overcome, while on the downside, the 148.00 may serve as immediate support to hold, followed by the 145.80 level. Source: IG charts On the watchlist: Gold prices at March 2023 low Despite some cooling in the US Treasury yields rally and a weaker US dollar overnight, gold prices did not manage to gain much traction overnight, hovering around its lowest level since March 2023. Near-term technical conditions in oversold levels may translate to an attempt to stabilise ahead, but the broader trend remains downward bias, given the formation of lower highs and lower lows since May 2023. To reinforce sellers in broader control for now, its weekly RSI continues to trade below the 50 level. Any relief may leave the resistance level at the US$1,900 level on watch for buyers to overcome, with more conviction for buyers potentially having to come from a move back above its 100-day MA. Source: IG charts Thursday: DJIA +0.35%; S&P 500 +0.59%; Nasdaq +0.83%, DAX +0.70%, FTSE +0.11% https://www.dailyfx.com/news/asia-day-ahead-gold-at-march-2023-low-usd-jpy-hovers-below-key-150-00-level-20230929.html

2023-09-27 02:13

XAU/USD PRICE FORECAST: Gold (XAU/USD) Struggles as Rising US Yields and the Dollar Index (DXY). Dollar Index (DXY) in Overbought Territory but Likely to Remain Supported in a Risk-Off Environment. IG Client Sentiment Shows that Retail Traders are Overwhelmingly Long with 79% of Traders Currently Holding Long Positions. To Learn More About Price Action, Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Section. MOST READ: Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) Forecast: Upside Potential but Technical Hurdles Lie Ahead Gold extended its losses in the European session as US Treasury Yields continued their advance, while the US Dollar holds above the 106.00 handle. The ‘higher for longer narrative’ has gripped markets since last weeks Fed meeting with risk assets and USD denominated assets feeling the heat. US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) The US Dollar has found additional support from a potential Government shutdown coupled with deteriorating economic data globally pointing to a slowdown. The higher rates on offer from holding US Dollars continues to prop up the Greenback as its safe haven appeal grows. Further uncertainty surrounding the Chinese property sector this morning also aiding the Dollars haven appeal. US data this week continued its positivity as US housing prices continued to rise in July. Later today we also have comments expected from Federal Reserve Policymaker Bowman ahead of more US data later this week. Another reason to be bullish on the USD comes in the form of seasonality with the US Dollar bullish against Western and Eastern European countries as well as emerging market currencies over the past 4 year. This was also corroborated by Economists at Societe Generale as they evaluate the USD outlook for Q4. Will this seasonality trend extend into a 5th year? All signs at present point to it. Continued US Dollar strength could weigh on Gold prices in Q4 as safe haven appeal continues to favor the US Dollar rather than the non-yielding precious metal. Market uncertainty has been keeping Gold prices partially supported thus far but if the DXY continues its advance Gold could be in store for fresh 2023 lows. Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart Source: TradingView, Created by Zain Vawda Looking at the daily chart above, yesterday saw price break above a key area of resistance around the 105.60 handle before piercing through the 106.00 handle. The DXY does remain in overbought territory, but retracements have so far proved short lived. The current macro picture is likely to keep the US Dollar supported moving forward. The MAs have however crossed on the daily timeframe with the 100-day MA crossing above the 200-day MA in a golden cross pattern. This is a further sign of the upside momentum from a technical perspective and could see the DXY run toward the 107.00 level in the coming days. US TRASURY YIELDS HOVER AT 2007 LEVELS US Treasury yields continue to hold the high ground at 2007 levels adding further pressure on Gold prices. The US 10Y has been trading comfortably above the 2007 levels hitting a high yesterday around the 4.56% mark with the 2Y yield not advancing as much, remaining below recent highs around the 5.12% handle. US 2Y and US 10Y Chart Source: TradingView, Created by Zain Vawda RISK EVENTS AHEAD THIS WEEK As mentioned earlier we have US Fed policymaker on the docket later today before attention turns to US Durable Goods Orders tomorrow. Final GDP numbers with an expected upward revision will be out Thursday before the biggest risk event of the week on Friday. If anything can arrest the Dollar's rise of late it could be US PCE data which remains the Feds preferred gauge of inflation. A significant drop here could see some weakness in the DXY but is not something I expect right now. I believe if we are to see any significant change in the PCE data it will likely come from the October print onward as student debt repayments begin and consumers face renewed strain. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the DailyFX Calendar GOLD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Form a technical perspective, Gold prices have struggled in the early part of the week. Having written my weekly forecast on Gold, I saw the potential for a move higher given last Fridays daily candle close as a bullish inside bar candle. I did however highlight the technical hurdles facing Gold around the $1925-$1930 mark where we have a seen a convergence of the MAs. At the time of writing, we also have the 50-day MA looking at crossing the 200-day MA in what would be a further sign of the bearish momentum at present. The one apprehension I do have I that Gold seems to be slightly supported, given the rise in US Yields and rise of the DXY I would’ve expected a faster decline in the precious metal. Looking toward the downside and immediate support is provided by the $1900 handle before the recent lows around $1884 comes into focus. A drop below the $1900 mark could see the precious metal put in some gains before going on to take out the recent lows around $1884 and should be kept in mind. Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart – September 26, 2023 Source: TradingView, Chart Prepared by Zain Vawda https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-gold-falters-as-us-yields-and-the-dxy-advance-1900-at-risk-20230926.html

2023-09-27 02:12

USD/CAD PRICE, CHARTS AND ANALYSIS: The Loonie Finally Loses Steam as USDCAD Breaks Higher Out of the Recent Range. S&P Sees Sluggish Growth Ahead Just as Canadian Inflation Eyes a Second Wave. The Rise in US Yields and Selloff in US Treasuries are Hindering the Loonie and this Looks set to Continue in the Short-Term. To Learn More About Price Action,Chart Patterns and Moving Averages, Check out the DailyFX Education Series. USDCAD has finally broken out of the recent 5-day range as the DXY advance gathers momentum. The Canadian Dollar had been on a bit of a rally thanks to a sharp increase in the most recent inflation print coupled with an extraordinary rise in WTI Oil prices. There were also comments out today from S&P who stated that the economic outlook for Canada shows signs of sluggish growth just as the economy looks set to battle resurgent inflation. The recent breakout on USDCAD has largely come about as the DXY finds its feet and continues its rally higher. The Greenback has largely been supported by the “higher for longer” narrative and the safe haven appeal of the US Dollar. Not even a potential Government shutdown can dampen the mood at the moment. The major contributor, however, seems to be the US Bond market as the perceived Government shutdown prompts market participants into early profit taking on carry trade strategies. US Yields however continue to surge, holding at 2007 levels. The recent developments around US Treasuries do not bode well for commodity currencies such as Emerging Market currencies and could also turn out to be a hindrance to the WTI linked CAD. WTI for its part has found some support today continuing its move higher and on course for a hammer candle close on the daily timeframe. WTI OIL Daily Chart Source: TradingView, Created by Zain Vawda ECONOMIC CALENDAR AND EVENT RISK AHEAD The next seven days bring very little in terms of Canadian data and risk events which are dominated by US news. There are a host of events on the docket as well as a couple of Federal Reserve policymakers scheduled to speak. I will be paying close attention to the PCE data on Friday but even that would require a significant miss or beat to have any material impact on the US dollar. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the DailyFX Calendar TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND FINAL THOUGHTS USDCAD USDCAD ended last week with a hanging man candle, however the age-old adage that “wicks never lie” may be playing itself out this week. Having continued its recent consolidative price action yesterday, we have finally had a breakout of the range today as the pair eyes a return to recent highs. Admittedly looking at the daily timeframe there are many hurdles on the downside with support offered by both the 100 and 200-day MAs. A breach of these support areas may bring a retest of support around the 1.3250 handle into play. Looking at the upside potential for the pair and immediate resistance rests at 1.3540 which is the 20-day MA while a move higher brings key resistance at 1.3650 into focus. USD/CAD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Zain Vawda IG CLIENT SENTIMENT Taking a look at the IG client sentiment data and we can see that retail traders are currently net SHORT with 57% of Traders holding short positions. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-usd-cad-breaks-5-day-range-despite-resumption-of-wti-rally-20230926.html