2023-09-27 02:10

BRITISH POUND, GBP/USD, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, RETAIL TRADER POSITIONING – IGCS UPDATE British Pound set for worst month since August 2022? Retail traders’ bullish exposure relentlessly building Will the exchange rate bounce off near-term support? At over -4 percent, the British Pound is on course for the worst month against the US Dollar since August 2022. In response, retail traders have been relentlessly building bullish exposure. This can be seen by looking at IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), which often functions as a contrarian indicator. With that in mind, could further pain be in store for Sterling? GBP/USD Sentiment Outlook – Bearish The IGCS gauge shows that about 71% of retail traders are net-long GBP/USD. Since the vast majority of them are biased to the upside, this continues to offer a bearish outlook for the medium term. Meanwhile, upside bets have increased by 3.29% and 12.79% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With that in mind, the combination of overall positioning and recent changes offers a stronger bearish outlook. British Pound Daily Chart Looking at the daily chart below, GBP/USD has continued making downside progress in the aftermath of a bearish Head & Shoulders chart formation. Since then, prices have also confirmed a breakout under the 200-day Moving Average (MA) and the May low of 1.2308. Now, immediate support is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.209. Breaking lower would open the door to potentially retesting the March low of 1.1804 and further reversing the uptrend that occurred from late last year until June of this year. Otherwise, a turn higher from here places the focus on the 1.2308 inflection point. Chart Created in Trading View https://www.dailyfx.com/analysis/british-pound-set-for-worst-month-since-august-2022-as-upside-exposure-builds-20230926.html

2023-09-27 02:08

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR VS US DOLLAR, AUSTRALIA MONTHLY CPI – TALKING POINTS: AUD held early gains after Australia monthly CPI rose last month. AUD/USD faces still resistance ahead; AUD/NZD is testing key support. What are the key levels to watch in AUD/USD and AUD/NZD? The Australian dollar held early gains after consumer price inflation accelerated last month, reinforcing the growing view that interest rates will remain higher for longer. Australia's CPI accelerated to 5.2% on-year in August, in line with expectations Vs. 4.9% in July, and 5.4% in June. While the monthly CPI figures tend to be volatile and not necessarily a good predictor of the quarterly CPI, which holds more relevance from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) perspective, stubbornly high inflation raises the risk that the RBA remains hawkish for the foreseeable future. AUD/USD 5-minute Chart Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView Former chief of RBA Philip Lowe said earlier this month that there is a risk that wages and profits could run ahead of levels that are consistent with inflation returning to target in late 2025. RBA held the benchmark rate steady at 4.1% at its meeting earlier this month saying recent data is consistent with inflation returning to the 2-3% target range by late 2025. Markets are pricing in one more RBA rate hike early next year and have priced out any chance of a cut in 2024. Meanwhile, risk appetite has taken a back seat, thanks to surging US yields amid the growing conviction of higher-for-longer US rates. Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee highlighted the central bank’s priority, saying the risk of inflation staying higher than the Fed’s 2% target remains a greater risk than higher rates slowing the economy more than needed. AUD/USD Daily Chart Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView Furthermore, worries regarding the Chinese economy and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on sentiment. While authorities have responded in recent months with several support measures, those measures have yet to trigger a meaningful turnaround in sentiment. AUD/USD: Holds below crucial resistance On technical charts, AUD/USD’s rebound has run out of steam at vital resistance at the late-August high of 0.6525. The possibility of a minor rebound was highlighted in the previous updates - see “US Dollar Flirts with Resistance After Powell; EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD Price Action,” published August 28, and “Australian Dollar Looks to Recoup Losses Ahead of CPI; AUD/USD, AUD/NZD, AUD/JPY,” August 29. AUD/USD Weekly Chart Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView Given the failure so far to clear 0.6525, the path of least resistance for AUD/USD remains sideways to down, given the lack of upward momentum on higher timeframe charts (see the weekly chart). Any break below the early-September low of 0.6350 would trigger a minor double top (the August and the September highs), opening the gates toward the October 2022 low of 0.6170. AUD/NZD Daily Chart Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView AUD/NZD: At the lower end of the range AUD/NZD is testing the lower end of the range at the July low of 1.0720. Any break below could clear the path initially toward the May low of 1.0550. However, broadly the cross remains in the well-established range 1.05-1.11 so a break below 1.0550 wouldn’t necessarily shift the bias to unambiguously bearish. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/australian-dollar-holds-gains-after-cpi-accelerates-what-s-next-for-aud-usd-aud-nzd-20230927.html

2023-09-26 02:57

EURO, EUR/USD, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, RETAIL TRADER POSITIONING – IGCS UPDATE Euro is on course for an 11th consecutive weekly loss Retail traders maintaining increasingly bearish bets EUR/USD on course to set new lows for this year? The Euro fell about -0.5 percent against the US Dollar on Monday. Now, EUR/USD is on course for an 11th consecutive weekly loss, matching the longest losing streak on record back in 1997. In response, retail traders have increased upside exposure. This can be seen by taking a look at IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), which often functions as a contrarian indicator. With that in mind, will the Euro extend its losing streak? EUR/USD Sentiment Outlook – Bearish The IGCS gauge shows that about 72% of retail traders are net-long EUR/USD. Since the majority of them are biased to the upside, this continues to hint that prices may fall down the road. This is as upside exposure increased by 12.82% and 6.9% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With that in mind, the combination of overall positioning and recent changes produces a stronger bearish contrarian trading bias. Euro Daily Chart On the daily chart below, EUR/USD broke under the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level at 1.0631. That has exposed the March low of 1.0516 as immediate support. Meanwhile, the falling trendline from July continues to guide the exchange rate lower. As such, in the event of a turn higher, the trendline may hold as key resistance, maintaining a broadly bearish technical bias. Meanwhile, confirming a breakout under the March low. Establishing new lows for this year exposes the 100% level at 1.0436. Chart Created in Trading View https://www.dailyfx.com/analysis/euro-sets-the-stage-for-an-eleventh-weekly-loss-where-will-eur-usd-find-support-20230925.html

2023-09-25 04:31

US DOLLAR WEEKLY TECHNICAL FORECAST: BULLISH US Dollar remains in a bullish posture versus its peers EUR/USD focused lower after 200-day MA breakout GBP/USD bearish Head & Shoulders underscores drop The US Dollar remains in a bullish posture against the Euro heading into the new trading week. On the daily chart below, EUR/USD can be seen in a downtrend since July. Over the past few weeks, the exchange rate confirmed a breakout under the 200-day Moving Average, opening the door to an extended move lower. Since then, prices fell through the 1.0766 inflection zone before reaching the May low of 1.0635. Guiding prices lower has been the falling trendline from July. As such, it would take a breakout above this point, with confirmation, to open the door to a bullish technical bias. Breaking lower exposes the march low of 1.0516. In the event of an extended move higher, keep a close eye on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.088. EUR/USD Daily Chart Chart Created in TradingView Meanwhile, the US Dollar also remains in a bullish posture against the British Pound. GBP/USD has continued extending losses in the aftermath of a Bearish Head & Shoulders chart formation. Like the Euro, Sterling has also confirmed a breakout under the 200-day Moving Average, opening the door to an extended move lower. Key support is the May low of 1.2308, which in the event of further losses, could hold as new resistance if prices bounce. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level sits below at 1.209. It is standing in the way of reaching the March low of 1.804. Should prices make an extended move higher, keep a close eye on the neckline of the Head & Shoulders around 1.2592. GBP/USD Daily Chart Chart Created in TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-dollar-technical-weekly-outlook-eur-usd-gbp-usd-in-focus-as-downtrends-continue-20230924.html

2023-09-25 04:30

The US Dollar experienced mixed performance against its major peers this past week. Looking at the chart below, the British Pound was the worst performer weakening about -1.2%. Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar was better off, rallying around 1.1%. Meanwhile, Wall Street took a plunge in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composited fell -1.9%, -2.9% and -3.6%, respectively. The central bank’s pursuit to bring inflation down is now primarily coming in the form of pushing up expectations of a higher terminal rate. In other words, policymakers are seeing a scenario where interest rates stay higher for longer. As such, we saw the 10-year Treasury yield surge 2.4% this past week, closing at the highest since late 2007. This also pushed up 30-year mortgage rates, further contributing to a general rise in borrowing costs as quantitative tightening continued. Key event risk next week includes the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, German inflation data, Chinese manufacturing PMI, and more. What else is in store for financial markets in the week ahead? How Markets Performed – Week of 9/18 Forecasts: British Pound Weekly Forecast: Respite Unlikely As Fundamentals Wilt Sterling has lost a sizeable amount of fundamental support with the Bank of England holding rates steady. Worsening fundamentals point to an extended selloff. Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) Forecast: Upside Potential but Technical Hurdles Lie Ahead Gold and Silver managed to recover toward the end of the week despite broad-based US Dollar strength. Further upside looks likely, but a host of technical hurdles may prove a difficult hurdle for the commodities to navigate. Euro Forecast: EUR/USD on Breakdown Watch, EUR/GBP Stuck in No Man’s Land For Now This article offers an in-depth analysis of EUR/USD and EUR/GBP from a fundamental and technical standpoint, exploring pivotal factors likely to influence price movements in upcoming trading sessions. Japanese Yen Forecast: BoJ's Dovishness Puts USD/JPY Channel Breakout in Play USD/JPY rallies heading into the weekend following Bank of Japan’s dovish monetary policy announcement. As prices approach channel resistance, the pair's reaction could offer key insight into the near-term outlook. S&P 500, Dow Jones Forecast: Fed Rate Path Weighs on Equities The Fed’s commitment to the ‘higher for longer’ narrative sent risk assets sharply lower as investors digest what this could mean for expensive US stocks. US Dollar Technical Weekly Outlook: EUR/USD, GBP/USD in Focus as Downtrends Continue The US Dollar remains in a firmly bullish posture against its major counterparts. What are key levels to watch for in EUR/USD and GBP/USD in the week ahead? https://www.dailyfx.com/news/markets-week-ahead-us-dollar-british-pound-euro-key-inflation-gauge-german-cpi-20230924.html

2023-09-25 04:28

CRUDE OIL, WTI, RETAIL TRADER POSITIONING, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – IGCS COMMODITIES UPDATE Crude oil prices paused rallying last week Retail traders slightly increased upside bets What is the short-term WTI outlook? Crude oil prices took a breather last week, leaving WTI little changed by Friday. This meant a pause after weeks of consistent gains. Recent data from IG Client Sentiment (IGCS) shows that there has been a cautious increase in upside exposure in crude oil. IGCS tends to function as a contrarian indicator, with that in mind, could oil aim lower in the near term? Crude Oil Sentiment Outlook - Bearish According to IGCS, only 36% of retail traders are net-long crude oil. Since most of them are biased to the downside, this continues to suggest that prices may rally down the road. That said, upside exposure has increased by 7.73% and 1.81% from the last trading day and one week ago, respectively. With that in mind, recent changes in positioning hint that prices might soon reverse lower ahead. On the daily chart below, WTI has pushed higher over the past 48 hours (trading days). This is somewhat undermining the emergence of a Bearish Engulfing from last week. This followed a rejection of the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level of 88.75, where support was reinforced. As such, this is leaving a neutral technical setting in the very short term. Key resistance is the 92.43 – 93.72 range, made up of highs from November. Meanwhile, the 20-day Moving Average is creeping higher. The latter may hold as support, maintaining the upside technical bias. Otherwise, a breakout below it subsequently places the focus on the 84.84 inflection zone. Crude Oil Daily Chart Chart Created in Trading View https://www.dailyfx.com/analysis/crude-oil-price-update-last-week-s-pause-pushed-retail-traders-to-add-upside-bets-20230924.html