2023-09-05 09:48

BITCOIN, BTC/USD, ETHEREUM, ETH/USD - OUTLOOK: Bitcoin and Ethereum failed to hold last week’s early gains. ETH/USD and BTC/USD continue to flirt with major support levels. BITCOIN: Not out of the woods yet Last week’s early bounce was short-lived after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed making any decision on Bitcoin ETF applications. While many remain hopeful of an eventual blessing from the agency, the optimism isn’t being reflected on the technical charts of BTC/USD just yet. BTC/USD Weekly Chart Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView BTC/USD is now testing key support at the June low of 24750 – this support is crucial as a break below would disrupt the higher-highs-higher-lows sequence since late 2022. Furthermore, such a break would trigger a double top (the April and July highs), pointing to a deeper retracement toward the March low of 19550. BTC/USD Daily Chart Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView The recent weakness follows an inability to rise past the upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the weekly charts, roughly coinciding with a slightly upward-sloping trendline from 2021 and the 89-week moving average. For more discussion, see “Bitcoin & Ethereum Hold Ground Ahead of US CPI: BTC/USD & ETH/USD Price Setups,”published August 10. ETH/USD Weekly Chart Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView ETHEREUM: Looking vulnerable Ethereum appears to be struggling to hold above a vital floor at the June low of 1620. This support is crucial for the broader recovery from the end of 2022 to continue. Any break below would confirm that the bullish bias had dissipated. Such a fall would initially open the way toward the March low of 1370, with major support at the 2022 low of 880. ETH/USD Daily Chart Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView Like Bitcoin, ETH/USD has been under the influence of the bearish Ichimoku cloud cover on the weekly charts. In recent months, Ethereum hasn’t been able to clear past the upper edge of the cloud on the weekly charts, roughly coinciding with a slightly upward sloping trendline from 2021. ETH/USD's inability to rise toward the top of the cloud cover, in comparison with BTC/USD, reflects its relative weakness. For more discussion, see “Is the Rally Over in Bitcoin & Ethereum? BTC/USD & ETH/USD Price Setups,” published August 23. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/bitcoin-ethereum-influenced-by-thick-cloud-cover-btc-usd-eth-usd-price-setups-20230905.html

2023-09-05 09:46

GOLD (XAU/USD), SILVER (XAG/USD) ANALYSIS, PRICES, AND CHARTS US dollar better bid after the Labor Day break. Silver sells off for 5 days in a row. The US dollar is looking to break a prior level of resistance made in late May, continuing the post-NFP rally from last Friday. The USD index is being helped by a weaker Euro, Sterling, and Japanese Yen and if resistance is broken the greenback will likely look to test a prior zone of resistance between 105.36 and 105.48. US DOLLAR INDEX DAILY CHART There is little in the way of any market moving economic data on the calendar with the only events of note a handful of ECB speakers throughout the day, including President Christine Lagarde. Gold is struggling against a strengthening US dollar and is testing a prior level of support just under $1,933/oz. Below here the 200-day sma and 20-day sma sit at $1.917/oz. and $1,915/oz. respectively and these should provide short-term support if the precious metal continues to fade lower. Initial resistance is just below $1,940/oz. followed by last Friday’s high at $1,953/oz. GOLD DAILY PRICE CHART – SEPTEMBER 5, 2023 Silver’s recent move higher has been halted over the last week with five ominous red candles made in a row. These last five candles have either closed at, or very close to, their daily lows and the current spot price is now looking to break below all three moving averages. The price reversed after testing the downtrend line off the early May high at $26.13 and unless silver can find some consolidation soon it may look to test the August 15th low at $22.23. Any move higher will struggle around $24.54 and the downtrend at $24.65. SILVER DAILY PRICE CHART – SEPTEMBER 5, 2023 https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-and-silver-latest-stronger-us-dollar-weighs-on-xau-usd-and-xag-usd-20230905.html

2023-09-05 09:45

POUND STERLING ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS Upbeat BRC retail sales unable to deter market focus on China. UK PMI to drive GBP/USD later today. Head & shoulders vs falling wedge. The British pound is now back below the 1.2600 handle once more despite some positive BRC retail sales data (see economic calendar below). The release printed the highest percentage increase since April and reflected a brief bout of optimism by consumers, spending large on food, health and beauty. The summer months may have contributed to this uptick in spending as well as moderating UK inflation. While retail sales numbers were strong, the pound has yet to find support from markets due to Chinese services PMI’s slumping to its lowest level this year. The 51.8 read is swiftly approaching the midpoint 50 level that separates expansion from a contracting services sector. Recent Chinese economic data has been supportive of this slowdown and growth concerns continue to gain traction. The Chinese government has since issued statements to stimulate the economy but without any significant changes just yet, markets remain cautious. Later today, UK PMI’s will come into focus but with estimates expected to hit 2023 lows, cable may be in for further downside to come. The upcoming US sessions should also provide some added volatility to markets after US Labor Day yesterday. GBP/USD ECONOMIC CALENDAR (GMT +02:00) The Bank of England’s (BoE) market pricing (refer to table below) remains steadfast on a 25bps interest rate hike for September although the probability has softened from close to 100% to around 88% at present. With one more labor and CPI report prior to the rate announcement, I do not anticipate any change for September but a further drop in inflation and a weakening labor market may see some significant repricing thereafter. BANK OF ENGLAND INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES Source: Refinitiv TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD DAILY CHART Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG Price action on the daily cable chart above sees the pair sandwiched between a longer-term head and shoulders (black) and a short-term falling wedge (light blue). The latter tends to favor and upside breakout that could invalidate the H&S but the present state may favor a H&S breakout below the neckline. Bears have been tentative in their pursuit of a bearish breakout and I will be looking for a confirmation close below the 1.2548 swing low as a precursor to another leg lower. Key resistance levels: 1.2900 1.2848 50-day moving average (yellow) 1.2680/Wedge resistance Key support levels: 1.2548 1.2500/Wedge support 200-day moving average (blue) BULLISH IG CLIENT SENTIMENT (GBP/USD) IG Client Sentiment Data (IGCS) shows retail traders are currently net LONG on GBP/USD with 57% of traders holding LONG positions (as of this writing). https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-gbp-usd-price-forecast-a-tale-of-two-patterns-wv-20230905.html

2023-09-04 03:15

EURO WEEKLY FORECAST: BEARISH Euro confirms a 7-week losing streak against the US Dollar Will EUR/USD confirm a breakout under the 200-day MA EUR/JPY may also be on the verge of a bearish breakout The Euro is now on a 7-week losing streak against the US Dollar after Friday’s -0.63% drop. This means that EUR/USD is on its longest consecutive losing streak since 2014. It will take 9 weeks of losses to match the longest losing streak since 1997. Friday’s close meant the lowest close since the middle of June, opening the door to extending the downtrend since July. Furthermore, prices also closed under the 200-day Moving Average once more, opening the door to an increasingly bearish technical bias. Taking out 1.0766 with a confirmatory downside breakout exposes the May low of 1.0635. Otherwise, turning higher has key resistance at 1.0956 which is the midpoint of the Fibonacci retracement. EUR/USD Daily Chart Chart Created in TradingView Meanwhile, the Euro could be readying to reverse lower against the Japanese Yen. Since June, EUR/JPY has been consolidating higher within the boundaries of a Rising Wedge chart formation. Not only have prices broken under the wedge, but a Bearish Engulfing formed as this happened. Given further downside confirmation, that may open the door to a reversal. Immediate support is the 50-day Moving Average, which could reinstate the broader upside focus. Otherwise, clearing lower would offer an increasingly bearish technical conviction. That places the focus on the 14.6% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels of 155.20 and 153.47, respectively. Otherwise, extending higher exposes the midpoint of the Fibonacci extension at 161, followed by the 61.8% level at 163.26. EUR/JPY Daily Chart Chart Created in TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/euro-forecast-eur-usd-at-7-week-loss-as-eur-jpy-shows-signs-of-reversing-20230902.html

2023-09-04 03:13

SILVER & GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK: Gold prices pushed higher this past week, but silver was largely flat Next week, however, both precious metals may exhibit a more synchronized performance, potentially moving in an upward direction together The bullish outlook hinges on a dovish repricing of interest rate expectations Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) delivered a disparate performance this past week, with the former up around 1.3% and the latter relatively unchanged despite some wild swings during the five-day period, all against a backdrop of U.S. dollar indecision in the FX market, which saw the DXY index initially declined before rebounding to close largely around the flatline. The divergence within the precious metal’s complex, however, may be a temporary phenomenon, hinting at a potential convergence in their price movements in the coming days, possibly in an upward direction. That said, one possible catalyst that could have bullish implications for the space is the repricing of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. Over the past few days, the likelihood of further FOMC tightening in 2023 has decreased, primarily due to soft U.S. economic indicators, such as August consumer confidence and July job vacancies (JOLTS). The most recent nonfarm payrolls survey has also contributed to this swing in sentiment, not by revealing weakness, but by indicating a better balance between supply and demand for workers. With the Fed embracing a data-dependent approach and pledging to proceed carefully in terms of future moves, there is the potential for interest rate expectations to tilt downward in the near term, particularly if incoming information start to show evidence of a downturn brewing on the horizon. This scenario should weigh on yields and U.S. dollar, creating a more constructive backdrop for gold and silver. A key report that may offer important clues about the evolving outlook this coming week is the ISM services activity index. This indicator is forecast to have slowed to 52.5 in August from 52.7 previously, but a deeper retrenchment should not be ruled out given the softness in some regional PMIs. In any case, the weaker the results, the better for gold and silver. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold climbed towards the latter part of August, recapturing both its 200-day and 50-day simple moving averages. However, as the month drew to a close, XAU/USD’s upside impetus waned, coinciding with prices challenging trendline resistance a touch below $1,950. While the nascent rebound remains viable, a decisive move above $1,950 is needed to rekindle upward pressure. Successfully piloting above this technical barrier could attract new buyers into the market, creating a conducive environment for a rally toward $1,985, followed by $2,000. Conversely, if XAU/USD gets rejected from current levels and begin to head lower, initial support is visible at $1,930, and $1,915 thereafter, with the latter level corresponding to the 200-day SMA. Further down the line, the next critical floor sits at $1,895 (38.2% Fib retracement of Sept 2022/May 2023 rally). https://www.dailyfx.com/news/silver-gold-price-forecast-market-trend-hinges-on-data-key-levels-in-xau-usd-20230903.html

2023-09-04 03:11

BRITISH POUND, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP – TECHNICAL UPDATE: British Pound eyeing key levels of support ahead GBP/USD bearish Head & Shoulders still in play EUR/GBP recent dip places focus on key range The British Pound still remains vulnerable to the US Dollar as the new week begins. On the daily chart below, GBP/USD can be seen hovering on the neckline of a bearish Head & Shoulders chart formation around 1.2648. Watching how price action develops in the near term will be key. A breakout lower, with confirmation, could open the door to an increasingly stronger bearish technical bias. That would place the focus on the 200-day Moving Average (MA), which could reinstate the broader upside focus. If not, prices may revisit the May low of 1.2308. Otherwise, a turn higher places the focus on key resistance around 1.2848. Further gains beyond that sits the 1.3 inflection point which was established in March 2022. Chart Created in TradingView Meanwhile, the British Pound remains in a fairly neutral setting against the Euro. On the daily chart below, EUR/GBP has been consolidating since June between key zones of support and resistance. Resistance seems to be the 0.8658 – 0.8701 range with support around the 0.8493 – 0.8519 area. Last week, the exchange rate left behind new resistance around 0.8610, subsequently turning lower. That is placing the focus on the range of support, which could hold and send prices back higher. In such an outcome, more focus will be placed on the 100-day Moving Average, which held on multiple occasions throughout July and August. It could reinstate the downside focus. Chart Created in TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/analysis/british-pound-outlook-gbp-usd-head-shoulders-eur-gbp-support-zone-in-focus-20230903.html