2024-05-31 08:01

USD/JPY Analysis, Sentiment and Chart Japanese Yen Prices, Charts, and Analysis Tokyo CPI rises to 2.2% in May. USD/JPY traders wait for US inflation data. Tokyo Inflation Report Signals Rising Price Pressures in May The latest Tokyo inflation report, widely regarded as a leading indicator for national inflation trends, reveals increasing price pressures in May. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes fresh food, rises in line with forecasts to 1.9% year-on-year, up from 1.6% in April. Meanwhile, the headline CPI, which includes all items, climbs from 1.8%, a two-year-plus low, to 2.2% year-on-year. This upward movement in inflation is a positive development for the Bank of Japan. However, it will unlikely prompt the central bank to tighten its monetary policy in the coming weeks. The Bank of Japan closely monitors price dynamics to achieve its longstanding 2% inflation target sustainably and stably. As the Tokyo region serves as a bellwether for broader inflationary trends in Japan, the latest figures underscore the continued recovery in consumer prices. Policymakers and market participants will scrutinize upcoming national inflation data (June 20th) for further signs of sustained price growth, which could influence the Bank of Japan's future policy decisions. The Japanese Yen barely moved after the data was released with USD/JPY traders waiting for today’s US Core PCE data (13:30 UK) before taking any positions ahead of the weekend. USD/JPY is trading on either side of 157.00, which has previously prompted official warnings over excessive Yen weakness. Japanese officials will closely watch today’s US inflation data and the US dollar’s response. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Retail trader data show 25.18% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.97 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 3.42% lower than yesterday and 11.68% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.31% lower than yesterday and 1.38% lower than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The current sentiment and recent changes combine us with a further mixed USD/JPY trading bias. What is your view on the Japanese Yen – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/usd-jpy-stuck-around-157-00-ahead-of-us-inflation-data-20240531.html

2024-05-31 00:10

Most Read: Market Sentiment Analysis & Outlook - EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Dow Jones 30 Gold (XAU/USD) has enjoyed a remarkable rally this year, peaking near $2,450 in early May. However, the upward impetus has recently started to wane, with bullion retreating over 4% from its highs in the past few trading sessions. This price correction suggests a shift in investor sentiment, with bulls likely seeking greener pastures. With underlying and fundamental drivers reasserting themselves, gold’s weakness could persist in the near term. Sticky inflation, which could force the U.S. central bank to maintain a restrictive stance for longer, could reinforce the bearish case for non-yielding assets, creating a hostile environment for the yellow metal. Acquire the knowledge needed for maintaining trading consistency. Grab your "How to Trade Gold" guide for invaluable insights and tips! For traders entertaining short positions, a crucial price point to watch is the $2,335 support zone. This area represents a confluence of technical indicators, including a key trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March-May rally. A decisive break below $2,335, accompanied by higher-than-average trading volume, would be a strong selling signal. If the price falls through $2,335, the next line in the sand is the 50-day simple moving average, currently sitting at $2,325. Breaching this support could trigger a deeper pullback, with potential downside targets around $2,265, a critical Fibonacci level just below this month's swing low. However, the scenario isn't entirely one-sided. If the bulls regain control and push prices higher, initial resistance looms at $2,365, followed by $2,377. A push past this latter ceiling could dampen bearish sentiment and pave the way for a rally toward $2,420. Continued strength could even bring the all-time high back into play. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/xau-usd-gold-price-forecast-bearish-continuation-in-play-with-key-support-under-threat-20240601.html

2024-05-30 14:30

US Crude Oil Prices, Analysis and Chart US Crude remains just below the $80 mark This week has seen its range top survive a challenge OPEC Plus is expected to extend current production cuts on Sunday Crude Oil Prices were a little lower in Europe on Thursday, retracing some more of the gains made earlier in the week. Those gains were rooted in hopes that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies will stick with current, voluntary production cuts at their policy meeting on Sunday. The impending start of the summer ‘driving season’ in the United States has also boosted hopes for increased gasoline demand. Figures from the American Petroleum Institute showed that crude stockpiles were down by 6.59 million barrels in the week ending May 24. Focus now shifts to the Energy Information Administration’s inventory snapshot. That’s coming up later on Thursday. Israel’s strikes on the Palestinian city of Rafah have also kept conflict in the Middle East unfortunately to the fore, with the US West Texas Intermediate oil benchmark and the global Brent market up by more than 1% this week. Still, despite plenty of fundamental support, the energy market like all others remains uncertain as to when interest rates could start to fall in the US and, when they do, how many reductions there might be. While the economic resilience that keeps rates high is not necessarily bad news for oil demand, oil bulls are always happier when central banks are in stimulus mode. Futures markets think September is the most likely time for US interest rates to start falling, and that they might just come down sooner in Europe. But these forecasts remain subject to the inflation data, which means those numbers are important to all markets. The next major example is the US Personal Income and Expenditure series which is coming up on Friday. After that it will be ‘over to OPEC.’ US Crude Oil Technical Analysis WTI Crude Daily Chart Compiled Using TradingView Having broken below their previously dominant uptrend channel from mid-December back at the start of May, prices have essentially continued to trade sideways since, within a rather narrow range between $80.18 and $76.23/barrel, the latter being a two-month low. Note, however, that even those levels have been tested infrequently and that the usual trading range has been even narrower than that. This week’s trade saw bulls try to push past the range top on Tuesday, but they couldn’t manage it and the month looks set to close out with that established band still in place. That makes a lot of sense given the high degree of fundamental uncertainty over demand and monetary prospects. The market is now hovering around support from its long-term downtrend line from June 22, which now comes in at $79.35, with resistance at the retracement level of $80.68. --By David Cottle For DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-crude-oil-prices-return-more-gains-as-market-looks-to-inventories-opec-20240530.html

2024-05-30 12:54

US Dollar Index Edges Lower, US Q1 GDP Second Estimates Prints at 1.3% US economic growth slows, according to BEA data. US dollar slips as inflation seen nudging lower. US real gross domestic product(GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.3% in Q1 of 2024 according to the second estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4%.In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.6%. The update primarily reflected a downward revision in consumer spending. Other data showed the price index for gross domestic purchases increased by 3.0% in Q1, a downward revision of 0.1% from the previous estimate. Thepersonal consumption expenditures (PCE) price indexincreased 3.3%, a downward revision of 0.1%, and excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.6%, a downward revision of 0.1%. BEA GDP Release Today’s data did little to move interest rate cut expectations with the November FOMC meeting seen as the likely date for the first 25 basis point cut. The US dollar slipped lower after the data release, but the move was limited. US Treasury yields also fell by 2-3 basis points, trimming recent gains. US Dollar Index Daily Chart Chart by TradingView What are your views on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-dollar-index-edges-lower-us-q1-gdp-second-estimates-prints-at-1-3-20240530.html

2024-05-30 08:42

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis and Charts UST 2-yr yields touch 5% after weak auction. Gold looks set to test Fibonacci support. Learn how to trade gold with our complimentary guide: This week’s auction of 2-, 5- and 7-year US Treasuries, totaling $183 billion, met weak demand and pushed yields sharply higher over the last two days, as dealers and investors demanded more for their money. These higher UST yields, coupled with growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may only cut interest rates once this year, nudged the US dollar higher and weighed on the commodity space. Source: LSEG Datastream. Later in today’s session, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the 2nd look at US Q1 GDP at 13:30 UK, while on Friday the BEA will release the eagerly awaited Core PCE Price Index for April, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. Both can move gold. After printing a multi-decade high of $2,450/oz. last week, gold turned notably lower and currently changes hands around $2,333/oz. The daily chart shows the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $2,284/oz. followed closely by a prior swing low at $2,281/oz. These levels should provide a reasonable level of support in the case of any short-term sell-off. A clear break below these levels brings $2,200/oz. and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $2,193/oz. into focus. Gold Daily Price Chart Chart via TradingView Retail trader data show shows 60.78% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.55 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 4.66% lower than yesterday and 18.87% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.04% lower than yesterday and 1.85% lower than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading bias. What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-xau-usd-eyes-support-us-gdp-and-core-pce-on-the-horizon-20240530.html

2024-05-29 14:00

EUR/USD Latest – ECB Set to Cut Rates Next Week Despite Rising German Inflation German inflation y/y rose to 2.4% in May from 2.2% in April. Financial markets price in a 90%+ chance of a 25bp ECB rate cut next week. EUR/USD listless around 1.0850. Learn how to trade breaking financial news with our complimentary guide Preliminary German inflation data for May shows annual inflation moving higher but monthly inflation moving lower. Annual inflation edged up to 2.4%, in line with market expectations, from 2.2%, while monthly inflation rose by just 0.1%, compared to expectations of 0.2% and a prior month’s reading of 0.5%. The final results will be published on June 12. The ECB is set to start cutting interest rates next week, despite today’s data. Financial markets are currently pricing a 90%+ chance of a 25 basis point cut at next week’s monetary policy meeting. A second cut is nearly fully priced-in for the October 17 meeting, although the September meeting is live, with a third cut at the December meeting a strong possibility. It is now looking likely that the ECB will cut rates twice before the Fed begins to loosen monetary policy. The Euro ignored today’s uptick in German inflation and remained in a tight 32-pip range against the US dollar. The main data release this week, US Core PCE on Friday at 13:30 UK, is currently stifling FX activity and volatility, leaving traders watching from the sidelines. EUR/USD closed Monday at 1.0857, opened and closed on Tuesday at 1.0857, and opened today’s session at 1.0857. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Retail Trader Sentiment Analysis: EUR/USD Bias Remains Mixed According to the latest IG retail trader data, 41.46% of traders are net-long on the EUR/USD pair, with the ratio of short to long positions standing at 1.41 to 1. The percentage of net-long traders has increased by 4.35% from the previous day but declined by 6.59% compared to last week. Simultaneously, the number of net-short traders has decreased by 10.27% from yesterday and 2.78% from last week. Typically, contrarian trading strategies that go against the crowd sentiment tend to yield better results. With traders currently leaning towards a net-short bias, this could potentially signal further upside for the EUR/USD pair. However, the mixed positioning data, with a less net-short stance than yesterday but a more net-short stance compared to last week, suggests a mixed trading bias for the EUR/USD currency pair. While retail trader sentiment can provide valuable insights, it is essential to consider other technical and fundamental factors when making trading decisions. What is your view on the EURO – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/eur-usd-latest-ecb-set-to-cut-rates-next-week-despite-rising-german-inflation-20240529.html