2024-05-20 18:30

Nvidia's financial results: a preview NVIDIA is set to release its Q1 FY25 financial results on May 22, 2024, with expectations of delivering another record revenue and margin. In the previous earnings season, Nvidia stocks surged by nearly 10% on the earnings date. Will the forthcoming report help NVIDIA’s stock price mark another all-time high or even reach a four-digit price tag for the first time? Elevate your trading skills. Gain exclusive insight into the relationship between stocks and FX markets opening up a whole new way to trade: Nvidia earnings date NVIDIA is set to release its 1st Quarter FY25 financial results on May 22, 2024, after the US market closes. Nvidia earnings – what to expect: Nvidia, a dominant market leader in AI chips and software, has reaped significant rewards from the new era of technological revolution. The company's fiscal year 2024 earnings report highlights a substantial surge in demand for its AI offerings. The Data Center segment, specializing in AI, experienced a remarkable 409% year-over-year revenue increase in the previous quarter and significantly contributed to the company's full-year revenue, which surged by 126% year-over-year. Looking ahead to the upcoming quarterly report, Nvidia is expected to report approximately $24 billion in total company revenue, reflecting a 9% increase from the previous quarter and a 234% increase year-over-year. In terms of earnings per share (EPS), Nvidia is forecasted to deliver $5.52 per share in its upcoming report, compared to $4.55 per share in the previous quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +406.4%. Nvidia earnings key watch: Data Center Driven by a surge in demand for data processing, training, and inference from major cloud service providers and GPU-specialized applications across various industries, Nvidia’s Data Center is currently riding a wave of explosive growth. In the fourth quarter, revenue skyrocketed to a record $18.4 billion, marking a stunning 409% increase from a year ago. With anticipation high, the upcoming quarter is expected to deliver yet another record-breaking performance. Margin According to guidance from the previous quarter, Nvidia anticipates further improving its enviable margins from 72% in FY24 to 76%-77% in the first quarter of the new fiscal year. Opportunities and Challenges Jensen Huang isn’t satisfied with Nvidia being just a hardware provider. The business model he envisions involves offering the best AI chips, packaged with top-tier networking kits and software. This approach allows Nvidia to leverage its dominant position in chip offerings while maintaining clients over extended product cycles. However, Nvidia's path is not without obstacles. Established chipmakers like AMD and Intel pose a significant threat, while major cloud providers like Amazon and Alphabet are developing in-house AI chips, potentially disrupting Nvidia's dominance within their ecosystems. Additionally, recent U.S. restrictions on AI chip exports to China, a key market representing nearly a quarter of Nvidia's revenue, could reshape the landscape. Further complicating matters are potential supply chain disruptions. Nvidia's primary chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), recently announced production capacity limitations that could constrain Nvidia's ability to meet market demand in the near future. Major US indices have been extending their uptrends, but market conditions do not remain the same forever. Learn how to prepare for changing market conditions with our dedicated guide below: Nvidia share price Nvidia's stock price has surged over 95% year-to-date and investor sentiment remains positive.According to IG data, 40 out of 42 analysts surveyed in the past three months rated Nvidia as a "strong buy," with the remaining two recommending a "hold" position.TipRanks reinforces this sentiment with an "Outperform" score for the stock. Analyst Consensus Source: IG From a technical standpoint, a rebound of over 20% from the April 19th bottom ($760) has brought its price just inches away from its record high, with some profit-taking holding the price around the $930 level. Breaking through the ceiling at $958 will effectively open the door for the price to revisit its all-time high above $970, or even reach $1000 on a psychological level. On the other hand, if the price pulls back further, the 5-day SMA will provide imminent support at around the $920 price level. Below that, the major test of the uptrend momentum will focus on the ascending trend line established by all lows since mid-April. Nvidia Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Hebe Chen, IG Australia https://www.dailyfx.com/news/nvidia-s-q1-earnings-record-results-driven-by-ai-chip-dominance-20240520.html

2024-05-20 14:55

Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) Analysis: Gold pulls back from new all-time high as Fed speakers spoil the rally ‘Higher for longer’ stance from prominent Fed speakers trims rate cut bets Silver retreats from the yearly high at the start of the week Gold market trading involves a thorough understanding of the fundamental factors that determine gold prices like demand and supply, as well as the effect of geopolitical tensions and war. Find out how to trade the safe haven metal by reading our comprehensive guide: Gold Pulls Back from New All-time High as Fed Speakers Spoil the Rally Gold achieved another new milestone, trading above the prior all-time high of $2431, but immediately withdrew back beneath the prior high as Fed speakers warned that rate cuts are still some way down the road from here. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic recounted the hot inflationary pressures of Q1 reiterating that there is still some work to do, but ultimately he sees inflation continuing to ease into 2025. Governor Michael Barr drove home the same points while Governor Philip Jefferson commented that the softer inflation print in April is encouraging. In summary, the tone reflected a preference to keep interest rates elevated until the committee can comfortably say the general level of prices is heading back to the target. Markets have stepped back from fully pricing in two rate cuts this year and have shifted from a likely September cut to a November cut. Keep in mind the Fed tends not to change policy during a presidential election so effectively, the FOMC will have to look at September and December or 2025. Market Implied Rate Cuts (in Basis Points) for the Remaining Meetings in 2024 Source: Refinitiv, prepared by Richard Snow A lesser chance of rate cuts tends to support the dollar and the small move higher in the dollar and yields sees the precious metals retreat from their intra-day highs. Higher yields makes the non-interest bearing metal less attractive and can see flows out of gold. Gold however, is experiencing a phenomenal bull run and it would take a real resurgence in inflation to see sharper moves lower over the coming days and weeks. The 161.8% Fib level at $2360 marks the next level of support, followed by the upper trendline (former resistance, now support) of the former channel. Gold Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Silver Retreats from the Yearly High at the Start of the Week Silver on the other hand, appears to be benefitting both as a precious metal and industrial metal. Silver is a less well-known component within the clean energy transition, used most notably in solar panels. Silver traded to an 11 year high earlier in the session only to pullback intra-day, trading flat at the time of writing. The immediate level of support appears at the psychological $30 mark which coincides with the top of the 2020- 2021 ascent from which the orange Fibonacci levels are drawn. Silver Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-price-outlook-precious-metals-pullback-from-intra-day-highs-20240520.html

2024-05-20 12:30

Major Indices Roundup: FTSE 100 stretches out ahead of prominent BoE speeches DAX hints at shorter-term downside pressure S&P 500 eases but remains at elevated levels - Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday Indices currently evolve as trending markets but comes a point when this may change. Discover the different market conditions and how to effectively approach them: FTSE 100 tries to reach last week’s record highs The FTSE 100 is gunning for last week’s record high at 8,479 with the psychological 8,500 mark remaining in sight as several Bank of England (BoE) members will be speaking in the course of this week. Upside pressure will be maintained while last week’s low at 8,393 underpins on a daily chart closing basis. FTSE 100 Daily Chart Source: ProRealTime, prepared by Axel Rudolph DAX 40 consolidates below record high Last week the DAX 40 hit a record high close to the minor psychological 19,000 mark before slipping and forming a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily candlestick chart which was followed by a drop to Friday’s low at 18,627. This increased the likelihood of at least a short-term bearish reversal being seen over the coming days, even though on Monday a minor recovery rally is currently taking place. Since last week’s high hasn’t been accompanied by a higher reading of the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI), negative divergence can be seen. It may lead to a several hundred points sell-off taking the index back to its April-to-May uptrend line at 18,464. For this scenario to become more probable a fall through last week’s low at 18,623 would need to be seen, though. DAX Daily Chart Source: ProRealTime, prepared by Axel Rudolph S&P 500 eyes last week’s record high The S&P 500’s rally from its early May low has taken it to last week’s record high at 5,326 before pausing amid Fed comments making it clear that the battle against inflation hasn’t been won yet. Further Fed commentary by several voting members is in the pipeline for Monday. The previous record high made in April at 5,274 acted as support on Friday when the S&P 500 dipped to 5,284 before heading back up again. As long as the accelerated uptrend line at 5,286 holds, upside pressure should remain in play. Were a new all-time high to be made, the 5,350 region would be in focus. S&P 500 Daily Chart Source: ProRealTime, prepared by Axel Rudolph https://www.dailyfx.com/news/ftse-100-dax-40-and-s-p-500-head-back-towards-record-highs-20240520.html

2024-05-20 11:00

EUR/USD Main Talking Points: EUR/USD wilted a little in Asia and into the European morning Still, it remains above a key medium-term downtrend A better market risk tone is helping Euro bulls, but the ECB is still tipped to cut rates before the Fed EUR/USD is the most liquid currency pair in the world, offering traders a convenient, cost-effective market to trade. Find out what else EUR/USD and the other highly liquid pairs have to offer FX traders: The Euro continued to find the $1.09 handle hard to top as a new trading week got under way on Monday. EUR/USD’s daily range was narrow thanks to a dearth of new trading cues, although there are likely to be plenty in the week ahead which is full of Federal Reserve speakers, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also on the slate. The Euro remains underpinned by the revival in risk appetite which has tended to broadly knock the Dollar and send global stock markets shooting higher. Its pep has markets a little edgy, however, given monetary fundamentals’ clear tendency to reassert themselves. Everything will depend on the data flow, of course, but, at present, markets wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the European Central Bank cut interest rates next month. They reckon the Fed will be holding off at least until September. This is a huge contrast with the situation at the start of this year, when the Fed was tipped to cut faster and harder than any other developed-market central bank. The resilience of US inflation since has caused most of the rethink. EUR/USD has risen quite sharply from the highs of mid-April, breaking through a medium-term downtrend line in the process. While reversals needn’t be sharp, it’s no stretch to think that the pair might now be a little overextended and that Dollar buyers might well make progress above $1.09 very difficult, especially if EUR/USD spikes sharply higher in the near-term. In any event the Dollar will probably set the pace into the end of this week, with the first major Eurozone data release not due until Thursday. That will see the release of German Purchasing Managers Index figures for May. The manufacturing sector is expected to remain well in contraction territory, if perhaps not quite so deeply as it was in April. EUR/USD Technical Analysis EUR/USD Daily Chart Compiled Using TradingView EUR/USD has popped above the downtrend line from December 29, but Euro bulls have yet to look comfortable there. Psychological resistance at 1.09 remains elusive but is very close to the market now. Still, the broad uptrend channel from April 15 remains very much in place, with its upper bound at 1.08931 containing the bulls for now. The lower bound doesn’t come in until 1.07500, and EUR/USD hasn’t been down there since May 9. If the single currency can remain within the range that dominated between March 6 and March 21 then it may well be set for further gains. That range is bounded by March 7’s low of 1.08647 and March 8’s intraday peak of 1.09847. --By David Cottle for DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/euro-struggles-with-1-09-cap-but-finds-support-in-risk-appetite-20240520.html

2024-05-20 08:30

Aussie Dollar (AUD/USD, AUD/NZD) Analysis AUD in focus ahead of the RBA minutes as risk assets march on RBNZ highly unlikely to move on rates as inflation remains above target Main risk events: RBA minutes, RBNZ rate decision, Fed speakers The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Aussie Dollar in Focus Ahead of RBA Minutes as Risk Assets March on The Aussie dollar holds around the pre-pandemic low of 0.6680 as the impressive bullish continuation unfolds. The bullish pennant, which developed from early to mid-May, revealed a strong bullish continuation which was largely influenced by the move lower in US inflation. Price action holds at elevated levels after intra-day pullbacks were repelled before testing the 0.6644 level that previously capped higher prices. In a week where that sees a notable drop-off in the number of ‘high importance’ data, volatility may wane and the US dollar may stand to benefit from a gradual recovery. Conditions of lower volatility tend to see a move towards higher yielding currencies, something that could see the US and Kiwi dollars find some respite. Holding above 0.6680 keeps the door open to a bullish advance while a break below 0.6644 places the recent bullish momentum into question. AUD/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow RBNZ Highly Unlikely to Move on Rates as Inflation Remains Above Target The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is all but certain to maintain interest rates at a 15-year high in the early hours of Wednesday morning, with markets pricing in less than 4% change we’ll see a rate cut. The bank is likely to require greater confidence that inflation is moving back towards the 1-3% range before deciding to cut interest rates and markets anticipate the first of such adjustments to take place in Q4. Inflation sits at 4% - a level that remains too high for the central bank to hint at looser financial conditions. Implied RBNZ basis point moves per meeting Source: Refinitiv, prepared by Richard Snow The AUD/NZD chart broadly presents an uptrend which has slowed down in the second quarter of the year. Negative divergence has appeared (lower highs on the RSI, whilst price action printed a higher high), suggesting a longer-term slowdown in momentum which may ultimately result in a reversal of the longer-term trend. It is also worth noting the potential forming of a head and shoulders pattern but remains far from completion. However, on a shorter-term basis, price action reveals the potential for another leg higher. On Friday, prices hovered around the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) where it appeared to launch a bid higher. Today, the pair is moving higher and the last three candles (including today) appear on track to form a morning star formation – potentially. Should the bullish pattern emerge, the swing high of 1.1030 reemerges as the next level of resistance, followed by 1.1052 – the June 2023 swing high. The move will need to be reassessed in the event prices close below the 50 SMA or test 1.0885. AUD/NZD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Main Risk Events this Week There is a sizeable number of Fed speakers this week so things could get a little noisy in dollar crosses including AUD/USD. In addition, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is due to make an appearance while the RBNZ rate decision and RBA minutes provide the main antipodean data for the week. On Friday, keep an eye on the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report after the preliminary figures shocked markets. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/aussie-kiwi-dollar-outlook-aud-nzd-price-setups-ahead-of-the-rbnz-20240520.html

2024-05-19 18:15

Most Read: USD/JPY Trade Setup: Awaiting Support Breakdown to Validate Bearish Outlook Last week, the U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, experienced a sharp decline as softer-than-expected consumer price index figures reignited optimism that the disinflationary trend, which began in late 2023 but stalled earlier this year, has resumed. Encouraging data on the inflation front fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve might ease its monetary policy sooner than anticipated, perhaps in the fall, propelling the euro and British pound to multi-month highs against the greenback. Precious metals also shone, with gold nearing its all-time high and silver reaching its strongest level since 2013. Want to know where the British pound may be headed over the coming months? Explore all the insights available in our quarterly forecast. Request your complimentary guide today! For a more in-depth analysis of the factors that could potentially impact financial markets in the coming week, be sure to check out the comprehensive forecasts and insights provided by the DailyFX team. Their expert analysis can help you navigate the evolving market landscape and make informed trading decisions. Curious about the euro’s near-term prospects? Explore all the insights available in our quarterly forecast. Request your complimentary guide today! FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL FORECASTS British Pound Weekly Forecast: Will Inflation Data Bring Sterling Down to Earth? GBP/USD has gained on U.S. dollar weakness and doubts that the Bank of England will cut rates soon. Euro Weekly Forecast: Lower Volume Ahead Likely to Snub the euro The week ahead is notable for its lack of ‘high impact’ economic data and events. With this being the case, lower ensuing volatility tends to favor higher yielding currencies. Gold, Silver Weekly Forecast: Gold Bid on Dollar Drop, ‘Silver Squeeze’ Returns Precious metals are looking positive after softer CPI data shifted the focus to Fed rate cuts and silver surged on what appears to be a return of ‘meme stock’ mania. USD/JPY Trade Setup: Awaiting Support Breakdown to Validate Bearish Outlook This article analyzes a possible short setup in USD/JPY, examining key technical levels whose invalidation could create compelling opportunities for breakout and breakdown strategies. US Dollar Forecast: Quiet Week May Signal Deeper Slide Ahead - EUR/USD, GBP/USD The article examines the short-term outlook for the U.S. dollar, honing in on two key FX pairs: EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The piece also provides analysis on recent price action dynamics and fundamental drivers. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/markets-week-ahead-gold-in-record-zone-eur-usd-gbp-usd-silver-break-out-20240519.html