2024-05-08 00:45

GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) took a step back on Tuesday following Monday’s solid performance, slipping by around 0.4% to settle near $2,315. Despite recent fluctuations to the upside and downside, the precious metal has not really gone anywhere in the past two weeks, with volatility shrinking over the period in question in a possible sign of consolidation and traders waiting for new catalysts before reengaging. The market consolidation is not likely to end until prices either push past resistance at $2,355 or breach support at $2,280. Should resistance be overcome, the focus will turn to $2,415. Additional gains from this point forward may lead to renewed interest in the all-time high. Meanwhile, a break of support could trigger a fall towards a key Fibonacci floor at $2,260. Below this area, the spotlight will be on $2,225. GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART Gold Price Chart Created Using TradingView EUR/USD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD dipped slightly on Tuesday after a third failed attempt to break above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at 1.0790, an area of strong resistance. Prices subsequently edged towards support at 1.0750. Maintaining this technical floor is essential to prevent a deeper retracement; failure to do so might lead to a move towards 1.0725 and possibly even 1.0695. In the event of a bullish turnaround, the first ceiling to keep an eye on looms near 1.0790, followed by 1.0820, which corresponds to a medium-term downtrend line extended from the December 2023 highs. On further strength, bulls may feel emboldened to initiate an attack on the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023 slump, located around 1.0865. EUR/USD PRICE ACTION CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView Curious about GBP/USD’s path ahead? Dive into our second-quarter outlook for expert analysis and strategies. Don't hesitate—request your free guide today and gain an edge in your trading! GBP/USD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD also fell on Tuesday, nearly breaching the 1.2500 handle. A decisive drop below this threshold in the upcoming days could amplify bearish pressure, potentially prompting a retest of technical support near 1.2430. While prices might find stability around these levels during a pullback before a rebound, a breakdown could pave the way for a retrenchment toward the psychological 1.2300 mark. On the flip side, if buyers stage a comeback and propel cable above its 200-day simple moving average, confluence resistance stretches from 1.2600 to 1.2630, where the 50-day simple moving average intersects with two important trendlines. Upside clearance of this barrier could inject optimism into the market and boost the pound further, creating the right environment for a rally towards 1.2720. GBP/USD PRICE ACTION CHART GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/xau-usd-gold-price-eur-usd-gbp-usd-market-outlook-and-technical-analysis-20240508.html

2024-05-07 13:58

EUR/USD Price Outlook and Sentiment Analysis EUR/USD near a zone of resistance Stronger EUR/USD bullish contrarian bias Learn How to Trade the News with our Expert Guide The Euro continues to push ahead against the dollar as rate cut expectations in the US grow after last week’s mildly dovish FOMC meeting and a weaker-than-expected US Jobs Report. The recent rally is now nearing a cluster of resistance points that may well temper further upside in the short term. The cluster resistance seen on the EUR/USD daily chart includes prior a horizontal line of note at 1.0787, both the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages at 1.0792 and 1.0795 respectively, before 1.0800 big figure resistance and trend resistance currently around 1.0815. This block should hold any short-term move unless the US dollar weakens further. The CCI indicator at the bottom of the chart also shows the pair in overbought territory and at levels last seen just before the early March sell-off. Trend support and a cluster of recent highs around the 1.0735/1.0740 level should act as first-line support ahead of 1.0700. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart EUR/USD Retail Trader Data Analysis 47.85% of retail traders are net-long EUR/USD, with a short-to-long ratio of 1.09 to 1 The percentage of net-long traders is 3.17% higher than yesterday but 8.25% lower than last week The percentage of net-short traders is 7.05% higher than yesterday and 13.41% higher than last week This shows that overall, retail traders are positioning more net-short EUR/USD compared to the previous day and previous week. Typically a contrarian view is taken to crowd sentiment. With retail traders more net-short, this implies a EUR/USD bullish bias from a contrarian perspective. The data indicates the shift to a more net-short positioning by retail traders over the last day and week gives a stronger EUR/USD bullish contrarian trading bias currently. In summary, the retail trader data suggests EUR/USD may continue rising based on the contrarian interpretation of the increasingly net-short positioning by these traders. The degree of net-short positioning has increased over the short term and compared to last week. What is your view on the EURO – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/eur-usd-nears-resistance-price-outlook-and-sentiment-analysis-20240507.html

2024-05-07 12:00

British Pound (GBP/USD) Analysis and Charts GBP/USD has slipped a little but remains above $1.25 UK and US rates are now expected to start coming down in September Now it’s over to the BoE The British Pound retraced some gains against the United States Dollar on Tuesday as local markets returned to fuller strength after a holiday Monday. Sterling cross rates are now likely to drift a little into Thursday’s session which will bring the Bank of England’s May monetary policy announcement. Rates aren’t expected to go anywhere this month, with the key Bank Rate tipped to stay at 5.25%. So, assuming that expectation is met, the market focus will be on the voting split on the nine-member Monetary policy behind the decision and its accompanying commentary. The BoE has been known to produce the odd three-way split, with members voting for hikes, cuts, and no action. However, this time we’ll likely get at most a two-way, with no one backing higher rates. Inflation in the United Kingdom remains well above the BoE’s government-set 2% target, but it is trending lower. The latest print, for March, came in at 3.2% , which was the lowest for well over two years. Monetary tightening already in place is clearly working, if slowly, and the UK’s sluggish economy certainly doesn’t need any more monetary braking. At present futures markets think it likely that the first UK rate cut will come in September, which is also when they reckon the US Federal Reserve might make its first move. However, both forecasts are highly data-dependent. It was last week’s underwhelming US labor numbers that brought expectations of Fed action closer to date. Before that the markets were betting on a November move. Sterling is likely to trade its current range into the decision and could struggle to gain if the BoE keeps rate-cut expectations where they are. Learn how to trade GBP/USD like an expert with our free guide GBP/USD Technical Analysis GBP/USD Daily Chart Compiled Using TradingView Sterling has nosed above the broad downtrend channel formerly dominant since the peaks of mid-March. Still, the break higher doesn’t look hugely convincing yet and the bulls have more to do if they’re going to make it so. For now, the range between April 29’s high of 1.25692 and April 24’s low of 1.24201 seems to be in play, with that downtrend channel offering support very close to the market at 1.25178. Retracement support at 1.24859 looks pretty solid, with the 50-day moving average at 1.26067 providing a barrier should the range top give way. The pair has spent most of this year above the first retracement of its rise up to the peaks of July last year from the lows of September 2022. It seems likely to remain there without some significant market shift. --By David Cottle for DailuFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/british-pound-gives-back-some-gains-as-market-looks-to-the-bank-of-england-20240507.html

2024-05-07 08:01

Gold Boosted by Renewed US Rate Cut Hopes, Israel-Iran Ceasefire Talks Continue Last Friday’s weaker-than-expected NFPs gave gold a boost on renewed US rate cut expectations. Further gains may depend on the outcome of ongoing Israel-Iran peace talks. Gold has found solid short-term support around $2,280/oz. Israel-Iran ceasefire talks continue and may cap the precious metal. Most Read: Market Week Ahead: Markets Risk-On, BoE Decision, Gold, Nasdaq Bitcoin US interest rate cut expectations were boosted at the end of last week after the latest US Jobs Report showed the labor market starting to weaken. The report showed just 175k new jobs added in April, missing expectations of 243k and sharply lower than the 315k jobs created in March. The unemployment rate also ticked up by 0.1% to 3.9%. Financial markets are now pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut in September and a further quarter-point cut by the end of the year. US Dollar Slumps After NFPs Miss Expectations, US Equities Bid While the interest rate backdrop is giving gold a boost, further upside may be capped depending on the outcome of ongoing peace talks in Cairo. According to BBC media reports, Hamas has accepted ceasefire terms suggested by Egyptian and Qatari mediators but Israel has pushed back on the proposal saying that it is ‘far from Israel’s basic requirements’. Talks are ongoing despite military action by Israel on Hamas targets in Rafah. If Israel and Iran can find common ground, the recent safety bid underpinning gold’s move higher will begin to be priced out, weighing on the precious metal. Gold has broken out of a Bearish Flag formation but refuses to move lower, leaving this technical setup at risk. The precious metal has found short-term support at around $2,280/oz. with this level holding four tests last week. Short-term resistance will likely kick in between $2,335/oz. and $2,340/oz. The outcome of talks in the Middle East will set the next move in gold. Gold Daily Price Chart Charts via TradingView IG Retail Trader data show 55.20% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.23 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 5.66% higher than yesterday and 1.99% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 7.22% higher than yesterday and 3.53% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. See the Full Report Below: What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-boosted-by-renewed-us-rate-cut-hopes-israel-iran-ceasefire-talks-continue-20240507.html

2024-05-06 16:30

Most Read: Markets Week Ahead - Markets Risk-On, BoE Decision, Gold, Nasdaq, Bitcoin The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, was a tad softer on Monday in a context of mixed U.S. Treasury yields and thinner liquidity in the FX space, with UK markets closed for a bank holiday. Despite this, the dollar's decline wasn't uniform – it weakened against major currencies like the euro and the pound but strengthened against the yen. FX MARKET PERFORMANCE Source: TradingView Eager to gain insights into the U.S. dollar’s path? Discover the answers in our complimentary quarterly trading guide. Request a copy now! Taking Monday’s fluctuations into consideration, the DXY index is down more than 1.4% from its April highs, although it has rebounded slightly from its recent trough established last Friday. Nevertheless, bulls have been clearly on the defensive over the past few trading sessions, notably following the Federal Reserve's dovish tone at its last gathering and disappointing U.S. employment data. The Fed's intention to ease despite renewed inflation concerns, which was the takeaway from last week's FOMC meeting, coupled with weaker-than-anticipated job creation/cooling wage pressures in April, has triggered a sharp pullback in bond yields in May, emboldening new rate cut bets for the year after they were sharply reduced late last month. These developments have evolved into a significant headwind for the U.S. currency. EUR/USD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD moved up on Monday and made its way towards the 1.0800 handle, coming within striking distance from taking out both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. Bears must ensure that prices remain under these technical indicators to stall the bullish momentum; any lapse might trigger a rally towards trendline resistance at 1.0830, followed by 1.0865, a key Fibonacci barrier. In the event of a bearish turnaround from current levels, traders should closely watch 1.0750 and 1.0725 as critical support areas. Below these thresholds, the focus will shift to 1.0695, followed by 1.0645. A retest of the latter zone could see the pair stabilize before mounting a comeback again. However, if a breakdown occurs, the possibility of a decline towards the 1.0600 mark cannot be ruled out. EUR/USD PRICE ACTION CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView GBP/USD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD also advanced on Monday, recapturing its 200-day simple moving average and steadily approaching confluence resistance between 1.0610 and 1.0630 – an area that marks a convergence of the 50-day SMA with two significant trendlines. Buyers may find it challenging to breach this technical hurdle; however, a bullish breakout could spur a move towards 1.2720. Alternatively, if the bears rouse from their slumber and steer prices beneath the 200-day SMA, support extends from 1.2515 to 1.2500. Cable needs to hold above this floor to prevent selling pressure from intensifying; failure to do so could create the right conditions for a plunge towards 1.2430. On further weakness, all eyes will be on the psychological 1.2300 level. GBP/USD PRICE ACTION CHART GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-forecast-bears-mobilizing-for-their-next-offensive-eur-usd-gbp-usd-20240506.html

2024-05-05 17:00

Markets Week Ahead: Markets Risk-On, BoE Decision, Gold, Nasdaq, Bitcoin Risk markets remain resilient, positive US earnings underpin the move higher. US dollar sell-off post NFPs may not last. USD/JPY breaking lower, helped by ‘official’ Yen buying. Bitcoin pops 9% higher on Friday for no apparent reason. Navigating Volatile Markets: Strategies and Tools for Traders A busy week for a range of markets with the US dollar buffeted by Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and Friday’s weak NFP release, while in the US equity space, heavyweight earnings releases from Amazon, Block, Apple, and Coinbase kept traders busy. The world’s 2nd largest company gave the market a sizeable boost, announcing earnings beat across the board, an improved dividend, and the largest ever corporate buyback of $110 billion. Apple shares jumped around 9% Thursday before giving back some gains on Friday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the week in positive territory and at its highest level in over two weeks. A bearish flag formation can be seen on the charts but a break above trend resistance cannot be ruled out. Nasdaq Daily Price Chart The economic data and events calendar is relatively quiet next week. However, the latest Bank of England decision (see the British Pound report below) and a handful of Fed speakers, will keep traders busy. The Japanese Yen moved sharply higher against the US dollar over the week, driven by strong talk of official intervention. After hitting a spike high just above 160.00, USD/JPY tested prior support at 151.92 on Friday. The Japanese Yen gained across the board this week and is likely to continue this trend in the coming weeks. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Gold ended the week lower but the precious metal could not break a prior level of support around $2,280/oz. Lower US Treasury yields should be boosting gold but this is not happening now. The CCI indicator suggests that gold is oversold. Gold Daily Price Chart Bitcoin made a sharp turn higher on Friday on the back of little news. The CCI indicator shows that BTC/USD was heavily oversold on Wednesday and this coincided with Bitcoin’s move higher. A break and open above the $65k level leaves $69k as the next target. Learn How to Trade Gold with our expert guide Chart of the Week – Bitcoin All Charts using TradingView Technical and Fundamental Forecasts – w/c May 6th British Pound Weekly Forecast: BoE Policy Call Tops the Bill The British Pound heads into a new trading week close to one-month highs against the United States Dollar, a tale that’s much more about the former than the latter. Euro Weekly Forecast: EUR/USD Gains May be Limited, EUR/GBP Eyes BoE Decision The US dollar turned sharply lower after the recent, weaker-than-expected US Jobs Report, boosting EUR/USD back above 1.0800. A lack of meaningful EU data next week will leave the Euro exposed. Gold Price Forecast: Bearish Correction May Extend Further Before Turnaround This article explores the near-term fundamental and technical outlook for gold, analysing possible scenarios taking into account current market dynamics and price action. US Dollar Forecast: Bearish Market Signals Emerge – Setups on EUR/USD, GBP/USD This article takes a thorough look at the fundamental and technical outlook for the U.S. dollar, analyzing potential scenarios that could manifest in the short run. Especial attention is given to two key pairs: EUR/USD and GBP/USD. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/markets-week-ahead-markets-risk-on-boe-decision-gold-nasdaq-bitcoin-20240505.html