2024-04-29 22:00

Apple earnings – what to expect? For its fiscal second quarter (Q2), Apple is expected to report earnings per share of $1.50 and revenue of $90.04 billion. This compares to $1.88 and $117.51 respectively. for the same quarter a year earlier. Apple earnings – what to watch? Apple is bracing for a weak quarter in terms of iPhone sales, which the company has warned investors to expect. Sales of its flagship product have faced significant headwinds in the crucial Chinese market due to rising competition from domestic smartphone makers as well as national security concerns. Additionally, consumers globally are holding onto their iPhone devices for longer before upgrading, further weighing on demand and sales growth. With the iPhone representing Apple's biggest revenue driver, this anticipated iPhone sales slump is expected to negatively impact the company's overall performance for the quarter. However, Apple's continued strong profitability, fuelled by growth in its services segment and a higher mix of consumers opting for premium iPhone models like the Pro line, should help offset some of the weaker sales numbers. While investors are anxious for updates on Apple's artificial intelligence initiatives, no major AI announcement is expected this quarter. The lack of concrete generative AI news has pressured Apple's stock recently, though the company is predicted to unveil its own premium AI offering this summer, emulating its successful "premium follower" strategy.This approach involves letting others lead the way into new markets initially, before entering later with a differentiated, higher-end product - a playbook Apple used effectively with smartphones and virtual reality headsets. What do the brokers say? Of the 42 brokers currently covering Apple, 26 currently have the company on a ‘buy’ rating. 14 rate it as a ‘hold’, with just two ‘sells’. The current median target price is $200, representing an 18% upside from the stock price as of the close on 25 April. Apple stock price – technical analysis 2024 has been a grim one for Apple’s stock, which has declined sharply even while the Nasdaq 100 continued to make fresh highs in Q1. The price has fallen from its record high in early December at $200, reaching a low of $164.08 on 19 April, a drop of 18%. However, the price closed at $164.84 low, the same level as the low hit on 26 October 2023. Since then a small rally has taken place. In the short term, the price may head towards the declining 50-day simple moving average (SMA), that it tested earlier in the month and then fell sharply. Just above this is trendline resistance from the January lower high. A close above trendline resistance opens the way to the $178 area that marked the high in March and April. A close below $164.08, the April low brings the September 2022 high at $163.50 into view, followed by $156.26, which marked a high in October 2022 and February 2023. Apple price chart (Source: IG/ProRealTime) https://www.dailyfx.com/news/can-upcoming-q2-earnings-give-apple-s-stock-a-much-needed-boost-20240430.html

2024-04-29 20:00

Coinbase (COIN) is set to release its quarter one (Q1) 2024 financial results on 2 May 2024, after the US market closes. Coinbase’s 1Q 2024 results – what to expect Source: Refinitiv Expectations are for Coinbase’s Q1 revenue to register a 71% year-on-year (YoY) growth to US$1.3 billion, up from US$772 million a year ago. This will be the highest quarterly revenue growth since 4Q 2021, supported by a potential near-doubling of its transaction revenue from a year ago. Earnings per share is expected to come in at US$0.97. This will mark the second straight quarter of profitability and a continued turnaround from its losses a year ago. Green light for Bitcoin ETFs, the risk-on appetite may support higher trading volume Since the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) gave the green light for the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) in the US on 10 January 2024, the crypto market saw a renewed surge in interest to start the year. Bitcoin, which takes up around 29% of Coinbase’s transaction revenue, was up 69% during the first quarter of this year. Ethereum, which takes up around 13% of Coinbase’s transaction revenue, was up 60%. Being the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the US, greater accessibility to cryptocurrencies through ETFs may translate to higher trading volumes coming through the Coinbase platform. Broad expectations for improving macroeconomic conditions in 2024 have also uplifted market risk appetite and improved sentiments in the cryptocurrency space, which is known to be highly volatile. While the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has eased off its recent peak lately, it continues to hover in ‘greed’ territory around levels seen in late-2023. Looking ahead, Hong Kong has given initial approval to its first spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs on 15 April 2024, while Australia is also expected to follow in the footsteps of the US and Hong Kong, with chatters of approval for spot-Bitcoin ETFs by the end of 2024. The trend for wider adoption may potentially drive more traction across the cryptocurrency space, which has a positive knock-on impact on Coinbase. Source: TradingView Fee reduction to fend off competition on watch Back in February this year, Coinbase announced fee reduction for high-volume traders to step up against its competitors and to boost its institutional business. High-volume traders can now get upgraded to lower fee tiers by providing proof of over $500,000 in monthly trading volume on other crypto exchanges. In 4Q 2023, its institutional business represented 8% of Coinbase's transaction revenue, and institutional trading volume were up 92% quarter-on-quarter. The upcoming 1Q results will offer a glimpse of any success in its fee-reduction move in terms of increasing its market share and whether the recovery momentum in its institutional trading volume can continue. Subscription and Services Revenue to remain stable For 1Q 2024, its subscription and services revenue, which accounts for 45% of its business, is expected to grow 21% from a year ago. Higher crypto asset prices may have a positive impact on its blockchain rewards revenue and custodial fee revenue, while higher average custodial fiat balances may support growth in interest income. This may help to underpin the steady growth momentum for this segment, while eyes will be on several new products, such as Coinbase One, Prime Financing products and Coinbase Cloud, to see if they can gain traction. Technical analysis – Coinbase’s share price back to retest Ichimoku cloud support Coinbase’s share price has retraced as much as 27% from its March 2024 peak but is attempting to stabilise lately at the upper edge of its daily Ichimoku cloud support around the US$220.00 level. For now, a downward trendline resistance may still be in the way, which will require buyers to break above the US$250.00 level in order to signal greater control. Its daily relative strength index (RSI) is hovering back at its key 50 level for now, which points to a more neutral balance. On the downside, failure of the share price to sustain above the US$220.00 level may pave the way to retest the US$188.00-$200.00 level next, where the lower edge of the cloud support stands. Source IG Charts https://www.dailyfx.com/news/coinbase-s-1q-earnings-preview-profitability-expected-for-second-straight-quarter-20240429.html

2024-04-29 17:30

Most Read: Aussie Dollar Technical Analysis - AUD/USD, AUD/NZD, AUD/JPY Price Setups The U.S. dollar (DXY) sank at the start of the week, giving back a portion of Friday's gains, with the pullback likely attributed to a moderate drop in U.S. Treasury yields ahead of two hot-impact market events later in the week: the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement and the release of April's U.S. jobs data. Want to know where the U.S. dollar may be headed over the coming months? Explore key insights in our second-quarter forecast. Request your free trading guide now! FOMC Decision: A Potential Hawkish Tilt At its previous meeting, the Fed hinted that the probable course ahead entailed delivering 75 basis points of easing in 2024, followed by three quarter-point rate cuts in 2025. While the central bank won't revisit these projections until June, the institution led by Jerome Powell could embrace more hawkish guidance, signaling less willingness to begin dialing back on policy restraint in the face of uncomfortably high inflation and ongoing economic strength. Any indication that borrowing costs will remain higher for longer should put upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields. In this scenario, the US dollar is likely to gain ground in the near term, especially against low-yielding counterparts such as the Japanese yen. When: Wednesday, May 1 April Jobs Report: Impact on the Dollar The U.S. economy is expected to have added roughly 243,000 jobs in April, potentially keeping the unemployment rate steady at 3.8%. However, Wall Street has repeatedly underestimated labor market resilience, so a stronger-than-anticipated NFP survey remains a possibility. That said, a particularly robust jobs report would likely propel U.S. dollar upwards, as it could reinforce expectations of a cautious Fed on rate cuts. When: Friday, May 3 EUR/USD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS After a subdued performance late last week, the EUR/USD bounced back on Monday, challenging overhead resistance at 1.0725. A successful clearance of this technical barrier could pave the way for a move towards 1.0755. Further strength from this point onwards would shift focus to the 1.0800 handle, where the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages converge. In the event of a market retracement, support is expected near the psychological level of 1.0700, followed by April’s swing lows around 1.0600. Prices are likely to establish a base in this region during a pullback ahead of a possible turnaround. However, if a breakdown occurs, the possibility of a rebound diminishes, as this move could lead to a drop towards the 2023 trough at 1.0450. EUR/USD PRICE ACTION CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView GBP/USD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD rallied on Monday, blasting past the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2550. If this bullish breakout is sustained, buyers could feel emboldened to attack trendline resistance at 1.2590 in the near term. Further upward pressure could place the spotlight on 1.2635, followed by 1.2720, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July-October 2023 pullback. On the flip side, if sentiment shifts in favor of sellers and prices take a turn to the downside, breaching the 200-day simple moving average, support zones emerge around 1.2515/1.2500 and then at 1.2430. To prevent a more significant selloff, bulls must fiercely defend this technical floor; any lapse could trigger a rapid market decline towards 1.2305. GBP/USD PRICE ACTION CHART GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView USD/CAD FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD fell modestly on Monday, extending its recent decline that began about two weeks ago, with price currently approaching a key floor near 1.3610. It's crucial for this technical region to hold; a break below could lead to a drop towards trendline support at 1.3580/1.3570. Further losses would then expose the 200-day simple moving average around 1.3540. Conversely, if bulls regain control and drive the exchange rate higher over the coming days, initial resistance awaits at 1.3785, followed by 1.3860. Buyers may face difficulty pushing the market beyond this point. However, in the event of a bullish breakout, we can't rule out a retest of the psychological 1.3900 mark in the near term. USD/CAD PRICE ACTION CHART USD/CAD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-dollar-slips-ahead-of-fed-verdict-nfp-data-eur-usd-gbp-usd-usd-cad-20240429.html

2024-04-29 15:12

Aussie Price Setups (AUD/USD, AUD/NZD, AUD/JPY) AUD/USD strengthens, building on prior gains AUD/NZD bull flag propels upside continuation AUD/JPY pulls back massively after suspected FX intervention Get your hands on the Aussie dollar Q2 outlook today for exclusive insights into key market catalysts that should be on every trader's radar: Markets Erase RBA Cuts, Pricing in Rate Hike Odds Instead In the aftermath of the hotter-than-expected Australian inflation in Q1, markets have removed prior bets in favour of rate cuts and now price in the potential for another rate hike later this year. In addition, global risk sentiment has improved after the risk of a broader Israel-Iran conflict has now subsided. AUD is therefore, well placed to take advantage of improving conditions. Implied Basis Point Hikes now Expected by the Market (Official Cash Rate) Source: Refinitiv, prepared by Richard Snow AUD/USD Strengthens, Building on Prior Gains AUD/USD made a sharp pivot at the 0.6365 level, advancing through 0.6460 in the process. At the end of last week, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) appears as an immediate level of resistance at the start of this week. AUD/USD bulls pushed through the barrier on Monday, tagging 0.6580 before pulling back intra-day. The RSI is still some distance from overbought territory, suggesting the market may still have more upside left before a correction is due. The 200 SMA re-emerges as the nearest level of support, where a hold above it, extends the bullish continuation bias. FOMC is due on Wednesday along with ISM manufacturing PMI figures and NFP rounds up the week. Therefore, there is plenty of dollar-centered data to sway the pair. A bullish continuation brings the 0.6580 level and 0.6680 market into focus. AUD/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow AUD/NZD Bull Flag Propels Upside Continuation AUD/NZD was highlighted over the last couple of weeks for it’s potential for a bullish continuation. The bull flag pattern has validated the recoiling of prices which sprung higher early last week and only now appears at risk of a slowdown in momentum. AUD/NZD trades lower on the day as the RSI pierced overbought territory and appears to be making its way back down already. 1.0885 appears at the nearest level of support but remains around 100 pips away for now. In the event bulls aren’t ready to give up, 1.1052 is the next level of resistance. AUD/NZD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow AUD/JPY Pulls Back Massively after Suspected Japanese Intervention The Japanese yen began the week in a volatile fashion, rising massively in what is suspected to be the result of remedial action from Japanese authorities in a bid to strengthen the yen. The weekly chart revealed a massive spike higher at first, potentially drawing the attention of currency officials, before the massive move lower in AUD/JPY. 105.40 remains the level of resistance dating back to April 2013, with prices appearing to settle on Monday around 102.80 the November 2014 spike high. Weekly AUD/JPY Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow The daily chart hones in on the recent ascent as markets powered ahead despite numerous warnings from currency officials. If the events of today were the result of FX intervention, the Japanese Finance ministry may be in for a difficult time seeing that prices have risen a fair amount off the daily low as markets already look to trade in favour of the carry trade. Support appears at the daily low 101.40 before the prior swing high of 100.80 comes into play. AUD/JPY Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow https://www.dailyfx.com/news/aussie-dollar-technical-analysis-aud-usd-aud-nzd-aud-jpy-price-setups-20240429.html

2024-04-29 13:30

EUR/USD and EUR/JPY Analysis and Charts EUR/USD took back some of Friday’s losses Bulls remain in charge, if not by a huge margin now Eurozone inflation numbers on Tuesday will be front and center for ECB-watchers The Euro was higher against the United States Dollar on Monday despite a lack of obvious trading news, with bulls seemingly more confident above the 1.07 mark. The single currency had been under pressure against a resurgent greenback this year as market watchers and economists pushed their forecasts as to when US interest rates might start to fall back to the second half of this year. Recall that, when 2024 got underway, a start date of March was thought possible. However, the Euro has managed a notable bounce this month, as investors start to wonder whether this re-pricing could perhaps affect the European Central Bank as well. For now, the market is sticking to hopes that June could see the first reduction, but this is not yet a done deal and the inflation data seen between then and now from across the eurozone will be crucial. The Eurozone’s official version for April is coming up on Tuesday, with economists looking for an annualized rise of 2.6%. EUR/JPY was hit by strength in the Japanese Yen, which has moved sharply higher against the single currency and all other major rivals. Market participants suspect the Japanese authorities might be taking advantage of this week’s holiday-thinned domestic trade to kick back against what they’ve repeatedly suggested is the too-rapid depreciation of their currency. This morning’s USD/JPY foray to the 160.000 mark certainly saw brisk selling. Of course this may simply be some profit-taking. So far, the Japanese Finance Ministry has said nothing. But the market is on watch and EUR/JPY has fallen quickly form 171.00 to the 166.00 region. EUR/USD Technical Analysis EUR/USD Daily Chart Compiled Using TradingView The uptrend from April 16 remains very much in force, with Euro bulls trying to force their way back above retracement support at 1.07109, abandoned on April 12. So far, they have struggled to do this on a daily closing basis, but it seems likely that they will make it this week as long as that uptrend remains intact. Above that point there will be resistance at the current channel top (now 1.07473) ahead of the next retracement level at 1.07920 and the 200-day moving average (now 1.07990). Reversals are likely to find support around the psychological 1.07 mark, ahead of the channel base at 1.06681. IG’s own sentiment data finds traders quite evenly split about the Euro’s prospects from here. The bulls are still winning, but not by much, with 54% net long and expecting further gains. --By David Cottle for DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/euro-holds-gains-against-dollar-despite-sharp-eur-jpy-fall-20240429.html

2024-04-29 11:30

Gold Price Analysis and Charts Gold under short-term technical pressure. Fed and NFPs this week’s highlights. Most Read: Understanding Inflation and its Global Impact Market’s have opened the session on a mildly positive note, ahead of a week packed full of high-profile data and equity releases, along with the latest Federal Reserve policy decision. Data releases this week include US ISM readings and the latest US Jobs Report, while in the equity space, a host of notable US companies open their books, including Amazon, Apple, AMD, Moderna, and Pfizer. Markets Week Ahead: FOMC, Apple, Amazon, USD/JPY, Gold and USD Outlooks The Middle East is experiencing a period of relative stability and peace at the moment, leaving gold traders looking for other drivers. Central bank demand for gold remains strong, especially from China, while investors looking to move away from the US dollar continue to diversify into gold. Sentiment this week will be driven by the latest US Fed policy decision on Wednesday – no change in rates expected – while on Friday the latest US Jobs Report will give the market the usual pre-weekend volatility jolt. The US dollar is lack luster in early trade but continues to build a bullish flag formation, suggesting the greenback is set to go higher. This week’s US data and events will frame the next move, but if the US dollar keeps within the Bull flag formation, then a break higher would see the recent high at 107.36 come under pressure. US Dollar Index Daily Chart Learn Forex: Trading the Bull Flag Pattern While the US dollar looks technically bullish, gold is starting to look bearish, at least on a short-term basis. A technical bear flag has appeared on the daily chart over the last week and a confirmation of this setup would see gold break below $2,280/oz. The short-dated 20-day simple moving average is being tracked and a break and open below this indicator should see gold move lower. A cluster of recent highs just under $2,400/oz. should act as resistance in the case of any move higher. Gold Daily Price Chart How to Trade a Bearish Flag Pattern Charts via TradingView IG Retail Trader data shows 53.40% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.15 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 2.13% lower than yesterday and 3.38% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.69% higher than yesterday and 6.01% lower than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. See the Full Report Below: What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-price-under-technical-pressure-all-eyes-on-fed-rate-decision-and-nfps-20240429.html