2024-03-27 13:00

Brent Crude News and Analysis US crude prices are under pressure again This year’s strong move has brought out profit takers OPEC Isn’t expected to alter its policy of production cuts next week Learn why oil fundamentals are crucial to understanding oil price fluctuations: Crude Oil Prices look set to make Wednesday a second day of falls as the market still looks keen on taking some profit after this month’s rise to highs not seen since October. News that US stockpiles increased very markedly this month is probably weighing on prices. Reuters reported an increase of 9.3 million barrels of crude, citing market sources basing their views on the most recent data from the American Petroleum Institute. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ group of heavyweight producers and their allies will meet next week. However, they’ve already affirmed an extension to existing output cuts amounting to over two million Barrels Per Day. Market-watchers don’t think any changes to this policy are likely, at least until the full ministerial meeting slated for June. But investors will still be wary as it’s not unknown for this group to throw the odd curveball. Output reductions from the group don’t have quite the same impact on the market as they once did. Supply from outside it has expanded rapidly and exported crude from the United States, Canada, Guyana and Brazil can increasingly fill supply gaps. Even within the group, cuts aren’t always complied with. The latest reports suggest that OPEC is over-producing to the tune of 220,000 BPD. Still, the market’s overall backdrop remains one of a well-supplied market meeting far-from certain demand. The prospect of lower interest rates across the industrial economies should help energy prices. But those lower rates themselves will depend on inflation coming to heel as hoped. This week will bring a few more likely trading cues for the oil market. Final US growth data for the old year’s last quarter are coming up. They’re expected to have been revised lower. Closer to the market will be more oil inventory numbers, this time from the Energy Information Administration, and the snapshot of operational US oil-rig numbers from Baker Hughes. From OPEC to geopolitics and demand and supply, master the art of oil trading by reading our dedicated guide below: US Crude Oil Technical Analysis West Texas Intermediate Crude Price Chart Compiled Using TradingView Prices have been moving steadily higher since December and the broad overall uptrend channel wouldn’t appear to be under any serious threat at this point. To its upside resistance lies some way above the current market at $84.06, with channel support much further below it at $75.60. There is support much closer to hand however, at $79.34. That’s the third Fibonacci retracement of the rise up to the still-unchallenged peaks of September last year from the lows of May. If that support gives way the market could be headed for deeper falls, and, perhaps, a challenge to the current overall uptrend. It’s notable that a downtrend line from June 2022 is coming into focus as well. It now offers resistance at $84.35. This isn’t a particularly well-respected downtrend, and it hasn’t often been tested. However, a consistent break above it could be a bullish signal for this market. Stay up to date with the latest breaking news and themes driving the market by signing up to the DailyFX weekly newsletter: ---By David Cottle for DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/crude-oil-prices-slip-again-as-us-inventories-increase-opec-meet-eyed-20240327.html

2024-03-27 09:14

USD/JPY News and Analysis ‘Decisive steps’ to be considered by Japan’s Finance Ministry USD/JPY flirts with danger – trading perilously close to the 152.00 marker Lower liquidity over the Easter holidays may provide a suitable opportunity to strengthen the yen but timing remains unclear Learn how to setup for market moving news and data by implementing this easy to use approach: ‘Decisive Steps’ to be Considered by Japan’s Finance Ministry Japan’s minister of finance Shunichi Suzuki stated that authorities could take ‘decisive steps’ in his strongest warning to the FX market this year. Recent USD/JPY price action reached a new cycle high, just below the 152.00 level, warranting a step up in the rhetoric surrounding another round of FX intervention from authorities in collaboration with the Bank of Japan. The last time authorities intervened in the FX market was October 21st, 2022, where the Bank was instructed to sell a large quantity of dollars in exchange for yen in an effort to strengthen the local currency. Previously, the words ‘decisive steps’ appeared on October 3rd 2022 when USD/JPY reached 145.00 but the yen was allowed to rise another 700 pips before action was ultimately taken. Given that we are already flirting with the 152.00 marker, there may not be as much leeway as previously suggested. If authorities saw it fit to intervene, they may eye low liquidity environment likely to result from the Easter holiday period which gets under way this Friday until next Monday. USD/JPY Weekly Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Lower liquidity over the Easter Holidays May Provide Suitable Conditions for Intervention but Timing Remains Unclear USD/JPY comes perilously close to the 152.00 level as markets test the resolve of currency officials. Despite the rate hike issued by the Bank of Japan, the yen continues its downward spiral as the ‘carry trade’ remains a popular strategy for those chasing higher yielding currencies like the pound or US dollar. Long trades from here are fraught with risk and do not offer up an acceptable risk/reward profile. Should intervention, or any effective warning of intervention, result in a stronger yen, levels of note to the downside include 150 and 146.50. USD/JPY Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow USD/JPY is one of the most liquid FX pairs and carries significance from a global trade and interest rate perspective. Read up on the nuances of the currency pair that all traders ought to know: Risk Events into the end of the Week The BoJ summary of opinions (inflation and growth forecasts) are due just before midnight this evening and ought to add to ongoing speculation around the path of interest rates for Japan after the Bank voted to lift rates out of negative territory earlier this month. Tomorrow, the final Q4 GDP data for the US is due and on Good Friday US PCE will provide further insight into the inflation dynamic in the US. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/fx-intervention-threat-steps-up-a-notch-after-usd-jpy-hits-a-crucial-level-20240327.html

2024-03-26 22:30

US DOLLAR FORECAST – EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD U.S. dollar displays rangebound behavior ahead of high-impact events on Friday US PCE data and Powell’s speech on Friday will be key for markets Thinner liquidity conditions are expected later in the week because of a bank holiday Most Read: Japanese Yen Outlook - Market Sentiment Signals for EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY Source: TradingView The release of core PCE data on Friday, the FOMC’s preferred inflation gauge, holds particular significance. This data point will provide fresh insights into the trajectory of consumer prices, which policymakers are watching carefully to guide their next move. Additionally, a speech by Fed Chair Powell on the same day will be closely scrutinized for any clues about the timing of the first rate cut of 2024. However, here's the wrinkle: Friday falls on a bank holiday. In addition, some countries in Europe observe Easter Monday. This means the true market reaction to these events might be delayed until the following week. This extended period of anticipation could further add to a sense of hesitancy among investors, dissuading many from making large directional bets until a clearer picture emerges. While Forex trading will continue, but it won't be business as usual. Reduced liquidity, a hallmark of holidays, can amplify price swings at times. Even seemingly routine trades can upset the delicate balance between supply and demand, with fewer traders around to absorb buy and sell orders. Hence, exercising caution is highly recommended for those planning to trade in the upcoming days. Fundamentals aside now, the next portion of this article will revolve around examining the technical outlook for three key currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD. Here, we'll dissect critical price thresholds that can act as support or resistance in the upcoming sessions – levels that can offer valuable insights for risk management and strategic decision-making when building positions. Want to know where the euro may be headed over a longer-term horizon? Explore key insights in our quarterly forecast. Request your complimentary guide today! EUR/USD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD remained relatively unchanged on Tuesday, failing to capitalize on the previous session's rebound and stalling at confluence resistance at 1.0835-1.0850. Should prices face rejection at current levels, a retracement towards the 1.0800 mark might be anticipated. On continued weakness, the focus will be on 1.0725. On the flip side, if EUR/USD resumes its advance and successfully takes out the 1.0835-1.0850 range, bullish sentiment could make a comeback, ushering a move towards 1.0890 in the near term. Additional gains beyond this juncture could reinforce buying interest, paving the way for a climb towards trendline resistance at 1.0925. EUR/USD PRICE ACTION CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView Delve into how crowd psychology may influence FX market dynamics. Request our sentiment analysis guide to grasp the role of retail positioning in predicting USD/JPY’s near-term direction. USD/JPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY displayed rangebound behavior on Tuesday, consolidating after last week's rally and hovering below critical resistance at 152.00. This key level warrants close attention as a breakout could prompt the Japanese government to step in to support the yen. In this scenario, we could see a pullback towards 150.90, followed by 149.75. On further losses, all eyes will be on the 50-day simple moving average. In the event that USD/JPY breaches the 152.00 mark and Tokyo refrains from intervening to let markets find a new balance, bulls may feel emboldened to initiate a bullish attack on 154.50, a key barrier defined by the upper boundary of an ascending channel that has been in place since December of the previous year. USD/JPY PRICE ACTION CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView Curious about what lies ahead for the British pound? Explore all the insights in our quarterly forecast. Request your free copy now! GBP/USD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD also failed to build on Monday’s rebound, edging downwards after an unsuccessful push above both trendline resistance and the 50-day simple moving average at 1.2675. Should this rejection be validated in the upcoming days, a retest of the 1.2600 level may be imminent. Further losses from this point onward could prompt a descent towards 1.2510. Conversely, if buyers return and propel cable higher, confluence resistance looms at 1.2675 and then at 1.2700, a key psychological threshold. Overcoming this technical ceiling might be tricky and could present challenges; however, a decisive breakout could reinforce upward impetus, potentially setting the stage for a rally towards 1.2830. GBP/USD PRICE ACTION CHART GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-in-holding-pattern-key-tech-setups-on-eur-usd-usd-jpy-gbp-usd-20240326.html

2024-03-26 15:09

Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) Analysis Dollar down, gold up Gold retests prior 2024 all-time high Silver found resistance and continues to trickle lower The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library Dollar Down, Gold up Gold appears to be taking its cue from a marginally weaker dollar at the start of the holiday-shortened trading week. Last week, gold prices revealed a rather unconventional evening star pattern – a typically bearish formation which can occur at the top of an uptrend. It was unconventional in the sense that the middle ‘doji’ candle exhibited a large upper wick but the candle body still met the technical criteria. The dollar may simply be cooling off after a choppy end to the week, initially sinking post-FOMC then rising sharply in the days that followed. Incoming inflation data on Friday is the main piece of scheduled event risk this week, meaning catalysts may be limited until then. Friday is a bank holiday in the UK and the US, potentially setting up a volatile USD move if the data posts a surprise amid a lower liquidity backdrop. Daily Gold Chart Compared with the US Dollar Basket (DXY) Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Gold Retests Prior 2024 All-Time High Gold prices attempted to close above $2195, the all-time high printed earlier this year before the latest milestone around $2222. This appears as a test for bullish momentum with a failure to close above suggesting that bullish momentum may require another catalyst to advance the bullish move. $2146 appears as the relevant level of support if bears are to regain control this week. To reiterate, Friday may cause elevated volatility should we see a surprise in the data – due to lower liquidity. Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Silver Found Resistance and Continues to Trickle Lower Silver just fell short of tagging the $26.10 level – a consistent ceiling for the commodity going back to mid-2023. Since then, prices have fallen through the 61.8% Fib retracement of the 2021-2022 decline at $25.30 and the psychological $25 handle. Downside levels of interest from here emerge at the 50% retracement (not typically regarded as a significant level), followed by the 38.2% retracement all the way down at $22.35. Silver Weekly Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow The daily chart reveals the immediate test for bearish momentum at $24.55, a level that had previously served to limit upside potential. Silver Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Stay up to date with the latest breaking news and themes driving the market by signing up to our weekly newsletter: https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-silver-price-update-xau-usd-rises-on-a-softer-dollar-silver-withers-20240326.html

2024-03-26 13:30

Euro (EUR/USD)Prices, Charts, and Analysis EUR/USD seems on track for a second day of gains ECB officials have offered some dovish commentary EUR approaches its medium-term uptrend line Learn how to trade EUR/USD with our complimentary guide The Euro posted further gains on Tuesday, rising on a little general US Dollar weakness and seeming to shrug off more shaky consumer confidence data out of Germany, the Eurozone’s powerhouse economy. The monthly survey from market research giant GfK showed the headline confidence index at minus 27.4. This was slightly better than both the -27.9 forecast and the previous month’s -28.8. Overall, the survey suggested that, while the worst may be behind the German consumer, improvements so far are incremental. Still, foreign exchange market focus remains very much on the Dollar and the US Federal Reserve. The Euro has made gains this week, as have other currencies, likely as investors take some profit after EUR/USD falls seen since early March. Fed Chair Powell and others have struck a dovish note in recent days, leaving markets with the impression that rate cuts could begin in June, and continue into this year’s second half. However, some US rate-setters have sounded less convinced of this. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Fed Governor Lisa Cook have both wondered aloud whether inflation levels will permit the three rate-cuts currently viewed as the base case. This tone has contrasted with recent words from European Central Bank governing council members. Madis Muller said on Tuesday that an inflation slowdown might have been confirmed by the time policymakers meet in June, Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta has already said that inflation was falling quickly back to target while ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane reportedly said on Monday that he was confident of this too. Given this outbreak of dovishness, the Euro’s strength is perhaps surprising. After all, it seemed hugely probable at the start of this year that the Fed would be cutting rates much before the ECB began its process. Now that seems less certain, with the euro’s recent strength perhaps also less certain to endure as a result. EUR/USD Technical Analysis EUR/USD Chart Compiled Using TradingView The Euro has bounced just above the low of February 29 at 1.07976 which continues to provide near-term support. A slide below that level would be worrying for Euro bulls as it would bring into focus an uptrend line previously dominant since October 3, 2023. That currently lurks some way below the market at 1.07912 but seems likely to face a test in the coming two weeks or so. Bulls will need to crack psychological resistance at the 1.09 handle before attempting to retake the high of March 21 at 1.09400. If they can manage that then the current broad range peak of 1.09989 in in their sights, but that doesn’t look like being reclaimed in the near term. Despite some strong moves in the last week, there seems to be a lack of conviction around EUR/USD at present. IG’s client sentiment data underline this, with net-longs dominating the scene by only 53% to 47%. The Euro’s ability to remain above that medium-term uptrend line may be key to more certainty in this market. --By David Cottle for DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/euro-gains-again-despite-more-dovish-ecb-commentary-20240326.html

2024-03-26 10:46

GBP/USD News and Analysis Bank of England’s Mann concerned by optimistic rate cut estimates Post-FOMC rebound on the cards for GBP/USD? IG client sentiment mixed despite majority net-long positioning Bank of England’s Mann Concerned by Optimistic Rate Cut Estimates One of the staunch ‘hawks’ within the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is Catherine Mann and she has recently clarified why she no longer voted in favour of a hike. Mann is of the opinion that market expectations around rate cuts is too high, something that appears to be supporting the local currency. She has expressed that wage dynamics in the UK are stronger than in the EU and US which she suggests makes it hard to argue that the BoE would be ahead of both nations when it comes to interest rate cuts. Something the market would have been attentive to was the February inflation report which revealed an encouraging drop on the way to the Fed’s 2% target by mid-year. Learn the ins and outs of trading one of the most liquid forex pairs. GBP/USD: Post FOMC Rebound on the Cards for GBP/USD? The daily GBP/USD chart reveals an attempt to lift off the stern zone of support found at the 200-day simple moving average and the 1.2585 level that help up prices for large parts of early 2024 when prices exhibited a range-bound preference. Since spiking above the prior range, not for the first time either, GBP/USD heads back into familiar territory as the pair looks to recover from the sharp decline. 1.2736 is the next level of resistance should bulls take over from here. Sterling stands to benefit from a slightly weaker dollar at the start of the holiday-shortened week which also happens to be very quiet from a scheduled risk point of view with just PCE data scheduled for release on Good Friday. GBP/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow IG Retail Client Sentiment Mixed Despite Majority Long Positioning Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow GBP/USD:Retail trader data shows 59.14% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.45 to 1. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Read the detailed GBP/USD sentiment report to find out why recent changes in positioning has clouded the outlook for the pair from a contrarian view point. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBP/USD trading bias. Stay up to date with the latest breaking news and themes driving markets by signing up to out newsletter below: https://www.dailyfx.com/news/pound-sterling-latest-gbp-usd-attempts-come-back-post-fomc-sell-off-20240326.html