2024-03-26 09:06

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Coinbase (COIN) - Prices, Charts, and Analysis: Bitcoin – Bullish descending channel breakout. Ethereum – Moving higher but still underperforming. Coinbase - Moving higher on increased market turnover. Bitcoin has rallied by around 12% since Sunday’s opening print as demand for the largest cryptocurrency by market cap continues to increase prices. A technical, bullish, break of a short-term descending channel now suggests that Bitcoin will attempt to make a fresh record high in the near-term and likely ahead of next month’s halving event. Any pullbacks will find initial support around $69k before just under $65k comes into focus. The Average True Range (ATR) reading is at a multi-month high, while the CCI indicator shows Bitcoin nearing overbought territory. The chart set-up suggests Bitcoin will move higher over the coming days but a short-term turn lower cannot be discounted. Bitcoin Halving Event Bitcoin Daily Price Chart Ethereum is also pushing higher but continues to lag Bitcoin. While Bitcoin has already made a new ATH, Ethereum remains around 30% its peak and is struggling to regain its mid-March multi-month high of around $4,100. The proposed Ethereum spot ETFs look like they will not be approved by May 23rd – the Van Eck ETF deadline date – and this is weighing on the cash Ethereum price. With the ETF potential approval being pushed further out, Ethereum may struggle to match Bitcoin’s performance over the coming weeks. Any further move higher will likely be kept in check by the mid-March high. Ethereum Daily Price Chart Ethereum Spot ETF – The Next Cab Off the Rank? Coinbase (COIN), the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the US continues to benefit from the increased interest, and turnover, in the space. Coinbase shares are back at highs last seen in December 2021 and remain a proxy for overall crypto-market performance. Coinbase is trading around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the May 2021 – January 2023 sell-off and targets the 78.6% retracement level at $343. Support on the weekly chart is seen at the 50% retracement level at $230. Coinbase Weekly Price Chart All charts via TradingView What is your view on Bitcoin, Ethereum – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/bitcoin-btc-eyes-new-all-time-high-ethereum-eth-trails-coinbase-coin-rallies-20240326.html

2024-03-25 15:00

Gold Price and Analysis Gold’s backdrop remains positive and may lead to further gains. Retail trader positioning is 50/50. Last week’s rally saw gold post a fresh record high before a sharp sell-off left the precious metal relatively unchanged on the week. Last week the Federal Reserve gave markets a nudge that they are likely to shave 75 basis points off the Fed Fund rate this year, in line with prior messaging. The more positive tone taken by Fed Chair Powell gave the precious metal the impetus to post a new ATH before sellers appeared and pushed gold lower. The US dollar index turned higher Thursday, post-BoE policy meeting, as both the Euro and the British Pound weakened. This USD strength weighed on gold going into the weekend. While the USD firmed, US bond yields continued to drift lower in anticipation of a lower Fed Fund rate. The rate-sensitive US 2 year ended the week around 14 basis points lower, while the benchmark US 10 year ended last week 11 basis points lower. While a short-term stronger US dollar will temper further gold upside, lower US bond yields may well push prices higher and see last Thursday’s ATH tested again. After completing a bullish pennant pattern last week, the daily gold chart is now looking to build another bullish set-up. The current sideways price action may turn into a bullish flag pattern, and this would likely see gold pushback above $2,200/oz. and test the ATH at just under $2,225/oz. Reasonable first-line support seen a fraction under $2,150/oz. Gold Daily Price Chart Chart via TradingView Retail trader data shows 50.43% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.02 to 1.Traders have remained net-long since Mar 01 when Gold traded near 2,082.75, the price has moved 4.24% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 11.14% higher than yesterday and 7.51% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.18% higher than yesterday and 16.42% lower than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-price-steadies-after-sharp-sell-off-new-all-time-high-remains-possible-20240325.html

2024-03-25 13:00

GBP/USD Price and Analysis GBP/USD edged back above the 1.2600 line. Markets are pretty sure US rates will start to fall in June. US Durable Goods orders will be the next trading hurdle. The British Pound inched back above the 1.26 mark against the United States Dollar in Monday’s European session as expectations of June interest-rate cuts sent the Greenback broadly lower. Recent commentary from the Federal Reserve has left markets pretty sure that this year will see borrowing costs fall, possibly quite substantially. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s ‘Fedwatch’ tool now shows markets all but certain that the starting gun will be fired on this process at June 12’s monetary policy meeting, with the probability of a rate cut then put above 70%. There will be plenty of economic data between then and now, of course, and any move will likely depend on continued durable falls for inflation. But, for now, at least, markets are taking the Fed at its word. For its part the Bank of England has also suggested that its own rates may well have peaked, but sticky inflation strongly suggests that it won’t be cutting them before the Fed. The Pound may still be getting some support from credit-rating agency Fitch. It raised the UK’s AA- debt rating to ‘stable’ from ‘negative’ on Friday. That day also brought news that retail sales had been flat in January, despite some awful weather reducing in-store footfall, when economists had feared a slide. The overall picture of the UK as an economy recovering modestly from a mild recession is not exactly spectacular but, as so often of late, at least more upbeat than initial forecasts. Near-term GBP/USD trading cues are likely to center around Tuesday’s release of heavyweight durable goods order numbers out of the US, but there is some UK interest this week, on Thursday when final fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product numbers will be released. GBP/USD Technical Analysis GBP/USD Daily Chart Compiled Using TradingView Sterling has broken below an uptrend line on its daily chart which had previously supported the market since mid-February. Bulls seem reluctant to let psychological support at the 1.26 handle go without a fight, and their ability to defend it on a daily closing basis may be key to direction this week. Falls below it would probably put the 1.2520 region in focus, where bearish efforts were stymied back in early-mid February. Failure there would be more serious and bring important retracement support at 1.2510 into play. The market hasn’t been below there since the end of November last year. Bulls will first need to retake resistance at the former uptrend line, which comes in at 1.26716, with the 1.27150 region in focus above that. The broad trading band between 1.28910 and 1.25010 has been surprisingly resilient and seems likely to endure at least as long as markets believe that UK interest rates will remain higher for longer than those in the US. --By David Cottle for DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/news/british-pound-inches-back-up-as-markets-increasingly-bet-on-june-fed-cuts-20240325.html

2024-03-25 09:05

Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Analysis BoJ minutes extend the ‘carry trade’ as officials rule out rapid rate hikes Like clockwork, Japan’s top currency diplomat voices dissatisfaction with recent yen volatility, weakness IG Client sentiment ‘mixed’ despite massive short positioning The analysis in this article makes use of chart patterns and key support and resistance levels. For more information visit our comprehensive education library BoJ Minutes Offer Scarce New Information The minutes from the Bank of Japan’s historic meeting where officials voted to end negative interest rates served up no new information. In fairness, this has been due to the open and transparent communication from the Bank in the lead up to and after the March meeting. Officials confirmed that the 2% inflation target has not yet been met and that the pace of rate hikes will not mirror that seen in Western nations. The more measured approach means that the yen will continue to struggle with an inferior interest rate differential that promotes carry trades. Later this week the BoJ summary of opinions will reveal the Bank’s inflation and growth forecasts ahead of the final Q4 GDP print for the US. In a holiday-shortened week, Friday presents the potential for an uptick in volatility if PCE data diverges from expectations. With traders off for Good Friday, the potential for volatility picks up amid the anticipated, lower liquidity environment. Learn how to prepare ahead of high importance data releases with an easy to implement strategy: USD/JPY Edges Lower from Resistance USD/JPY appears to have found resistance at the prior ceiling of 151.90, edging slightly lower at the start of the week. It would appear hard work for the pair to move back down to 150.00 – something that can be achieved seemingly with the help of BoJ forecasts or US PCE data, or both. Hotter inflation and improved growth prospects in Japan after massive wage hikes may boost chances of another hike later this year – strengthening the yen. PCE data, on the other hand, will be monitored if seasonal influences affect it like we’ve noticed in CPI and PPI data thus far. Cooler PCE data could let some steam out of the resurgent dollar, which might have the effect of sending USD/JPY lower. However, these data points need to be confirmed and in the absence of any notable deviations, USD/JPY may consolidate around 151.90 this week. USD/JPY Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow IG Client Sentiment ‘Mixed’ Despite Massive Short Positioning USD/JPY:Retail trader data shows 14.65% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 5.82 to 1. Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to rise. The number of traders net-long is 12.74% higher than yesterday and 27.58% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.19% higher than yesterday and 34.04% higher from last week. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/JPY trading bias. https://www.dailyfx.com/news/yen-update-usd-jpy-dips-after-boj-minutes-concern-over-volatile-moves-20240325.html

2024-03-24 18:00

Gold Whipsaws and Signals a Potential Momentum Shift The precious metal rose phenomenally in the wake of the FOMC meeting and updated summary of economic projections. The US dollar acted as the release valve for all the hawkish sentiment that had been priced into the market. US activity, jobs and inflation data printed on the higher side of estimates in the lead up to the March meeting, resulting in some corners of the market speculating the Fed may feel obliged to remove one rate cut from the calendar. This view helped the spur on the dollar. However, the Fed narrowly maintained their December projection of requiring three 25 basis point cuts for 2024, sending the greenback sharply lower and gold higher – to a new all-time high. Now that markets have had a few days to digest the data and Fed guidance, the greenback has resumed the more medium-term uptrend, sparking a sharp reversal for gold. The potential 'evening star' suggests that gold prices may continue to moderate in the week to come. Gold Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Gold trading involves not only a sound application of technical principles but also a comprehensive understanding of the various fundamental drivers of the precious metal. Learn the basics that all gold traders ought to know: Sterling Sinks after Hawkish MPC Members Give in The Bank of England kept the bank rate on hold, as expected, but markets were more interested in the vote split after the February meeting revealed a three-way split in the decision to hike, hold or cut interest rates. Most Read: Bank of England Leaves Rates Unchanged, Vote Split Turns Dovish, GBP/USD Slips However, the encouraging February inflation print appears to have convinced the two remaining hawks on the committee to vote for a hold, with the votes tallying 8 in favour of a hold and the single vote to cut from well-known dove Swati Dhingra. The coming week is very quiet form the perspective of scheduled risk events, with Good Friday rendering it a shorter trading week for a number of western nations, including the US and UK. PCE data on Friday amid what is likely to be less liquid conditions has the potential to raise volatility into the weekend. GBP/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow Technical and Fundamental Forecasts – W/C March 25th US Dollar Forecast: PCE Data to Steal Show; EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD Setups This article analyzes the outlook for the U.S. dollar, focusing on three of the most traded currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD. Key tech levels worth keeping an eye on in the coming days are discussed in depth. Gold Weekly Forecast: Gold Spike Reveals Overzealous Fed Reaction Gold prices have been reigned in after the massive push to another new all-time high. However, recent price action and a stronger dollar suggest more cooling to come British Pound Weekly Forecast – GBP, Gilt Yields Slide, FTSE 100 Rallies Further The holiday-shortened week ahead has little in the way of important data or events to move Sterling assets. Sterling remains under short-term pressure. Stay up to date with breaking news and themes driving the market by signing up to out weekly newsletter below: https://www.dailyfx.com/news/markets-week-ahead-gold-s-overreacts-sterling-sinks-and-usd-advances-20240324.html

2024-03-24 02:00

Most Read: U.S. Dollar Outlook & Market Sentiment: USD/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, strengthened this past week, closing at its best level since mid-February on Friday. Despite initial losses following the Fed’s dismissal of renewed inflation risks and indications that it was still on track for 75 basis points of easing this year, the greenback reversed higher in the next two days amid a global shift in interest rate expectations. US DOLLAR INDEX WEEKLY CHART Source: TradingView The Bank of England's dovish posture during its March meeting, coupled with the Swiss National Bank's unexpected rate cut, fueled speculation that other key central banks might relax their policies earlier than the FOMC, given the more fragile state of their respective economies. The European Central Bank, for example, could be one of them. Eager to discover what the future holds for the U.S. dollar? Delve into our quarterly forecast for expert insights. Get your complimentary copy now! Focusing on the upcoming PCE report, the core price index indicator is forecast to have risen 0.3% m-o-m in February, leaving the 12-month reading unchanged at 2.8%. Any result above this estimate should be bullish for the dollar, as it could force the U.S. policymakers to wait a bit longer before pivoting to a looser stance. UPCOMING US PCE DATA Want to know where EUR/USD may headed over the coming months? Explore all the insights available in our quarterly forecast. Request your complimentary guide today! EUR/USD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD has fallen sharply in recent days, breaching both trendline support and the 200-day simple moving average at 1.0835, signaling a bearish shift. If losses accelerate in the coming week, a key technical floor to watch emerges at 1.0800. Below this area, the focus will be on 1.0725. On the other hand, if bulls mount a comeback and spark a rebound, resistance can be identified in the 1.0835-1.0850 band. In the event of a bullish push past this range, attention will be directed towards the 100-day simple moving average, followed by 1.0890 and 1.0925 in case of sustained strength. EUR/USD PRICE ACTION CHART EUR/USD Chart Created Using TradingView Curious about what lies ahead for USD/JPY? Find comprehensive answers in our quarterly trading forecast. Claim your free copy now! USD/JPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY jumped this week, coming within striking distance from retesting its 2023 peak near 152.00. A breach of this resistance could prompt Japanese authorities to step in to support the yen, so gains may not be sustained. Without FX intervention, however, a breakout could usher in a move towards 154.40. On the flip side, if sellers return and manage to drive prices lower, technical support looms at 150.90 and 149.75 thereafter. The pair could stabilize around these levels during a pullback, but in the event of a breakout, a drop towards the 50-day simple moving average at 148.90 cannot be ruled out. USD/JPY PRICE ACTION CHART USD/JPY Chart Created Using TradingView GBP/USD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD plunged this week, breaching major levels in the process, including 1.2700, the 50-day simple moving average and a key trendline at 1.2675. Should losses continue in the near term, particular focus should be placed on the 200-day SMA at 1.2600, as a break below it may trigger a drop towards 1.2520. Conversely, in a scenario where sentiment brightens and cable stages a reversal, resistance thresholds can be pinpointed at 1.2675 and 1.2700 thereafter. Bulls may have a hard time taking out these barriers, yet if they manage to invalidate them, there would be little standing in the way of reclaiming the 1.2800 mark. GBP/USD PRICE ACTION CHART GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView https://www.dailyfx.com/news/forex-usd-dollar-forecast-pce-data-to-steal-show-eur-usd-usd-jpy-gbp-usd-setups-20240324.html